First negative inflation likely in six years

[Lite Beer]

First negative inflation likely in six years
The Nation

THAILAND is highly likely to post negative inflation in 2015 for the first time in six years, mainly because of plunging oil prices and the sluggish economy.

"Annualised inflation could be lower than the previous target of 0.6-1.3 per cent and could enter negative territory. But it should not be a worry, since it is due to lower global oil prices, which have affected many products," Somkiat Triratpan, inspector-general of the Commerce Ministry and director of its Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau, said Tuesday.

The ministry will next month officially announce its new inflation projection for this year.

Thailand posted an inflation rate of negative-0.9 per cent in 2009 after the US-led financial crisis, a period that also saw a steep decline in global oil prices along with populist measures by an elected Thai government to subsidise the cost of living.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/First-negative-inflation-likely-in-six-years-30267907.html

-- The Nation 2015-09-01

[Reigntax]

Now negative inflation is based on falling oil prices alone? So it has nothing to do with the country's industries going backwards, loosing markets, lower tourist numbers, less income, lack of confidence in the economy and those in charge.

So if its all because of oil, most other countries will have negative inflation also. News Flash: They're not!

Edited September 1, 2015 by Reigntax

[Chicog]

What is wrong with the word "deflation"?

[aguy30]

Negative inflation? I call BS on that!

The only thing that is cheaper that I purchase is petrol and that even lags behind the market rate.

Normal supermarket items at Big C, Lotus and Makro, food courts, restaurant and misc items are MORE than last year.

Edited September 1, 2015 by aguy30

[chainarong]

What is wrong with the word "deflation"?

Yeah and another In the Sh!!!t

[ikke]

The deflation is not due to the oil prices, but yes to the incompetence of the government, they know that also , why would they have sacked the minister of economy if all was ok. ?

[lostoday]

Negative inflation? I call BS on that!

The only thing that is cheaper that I purchase is petrol and that even lags behind the market rate.

Normal supermarket items at Big C, Lotus and Makro, food courts, restaurant and misc items are MORE than last year.

The petrol is regulated by a Thai government agency that makes price changes less drastic. They subsidize the price when oil goes up and put money in the fund for when it goes down. This idea is to smooth out rapid fluctuations. I believe it is called the Oil Stabilization Fund if you want to look it up.

[carstenp]

What is wrong with the word "deflation"?

Nothing, but Mr Somkiat said the eight-month slide of the consumer price index did not indicate deflation as it was due to a 50% drop in oil prices year-on-year.

EDIT:

In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% (a negative inflation rate). This should not be confused with disinflation, a slow-down in the inflation rate (i.e., when inflation declines to lower levels)

Fortunately, it is possible to reduce the impact of deflation. However, fighting deflation requires a disciplined approach, as it will not fix itself. Prior to the Great Depression, it was commonly believed that deflation would eventually run its course. However, economists suggested government intervention was necessary to break a deflationary spiral.

Source:http://www.moneycrashers.com/deflation-definition-causes-effects/#dOWeW8uEL6vdBiDG.99

Edited September 1, 2015 by carstenp

[elgordo38]

Now negative inflation is based on falling oil prices alone? So it has nothing to do with the country's industries going backwards, loosing markets, lower tourist numbers, less income, lack of confidence in the economy and those in charge.

So if its all because of oil, most other countries will have negative inflation also. News Flash: They're not!

Everything I am buying lately is increasing in price. Negative inflation is just a crock.

[elgordo38]

Negative inflation? I call BS on that!

The only thing that is cheaper that I purchase is petrol and that even lags behind the market rate.

Normal supermarket items at Big C, Lotus and Makro, food courts, restaurant and misc items are MORE than last year.

Amen to that. These fudged government figures are cooked up by somebody that cannot even spell the word shopping. All this deflation noise is world wide. When they show these garbage figures they do not have to increase our pensions as the cost of living is not rising and employers can keep their employees on wage lock down. Its just another government big business conspiracy. Welcome to the new world order. Regardless of who you vote for your getting the same old rehash of trash.

[Thai at Heart]

They aren't wrong. Deflation caused by supply side issues such as oil prices isn't nearly as serious as that of asset price deflation or a lack of demand in the economy. Wages are increasing in Thailand still.

[lostoday]

Now negative inflation is based on falling oil prices alone? So it has nothing to do with the country's industries going backwards, loosing markets, lower tourist numbers, less income, lack of confidence in the economy and those in charge.

So if its all because of oil, most other countries will have negative inflation also. News Flash: They're not!

Everything I am buying lately is increasing in price. Negative inflation is just a crock.

Cal you all read?

[Somtamnication]

So what? TAT will market this as a chance for more quality cough cough tourists to come. All positive news!

[soalbundy]

What is wrong with the word "deflation"?

too negative ?

[quandow]

What is wrong with the word "deflation"?

It's that "new math" thing lining up with the new world order. War = peace, that sort of thing.

[i claudius]

So if the price of everything is not going up ,who is it that steals my money when we pay for our groceries every week in Tesco ,Big C etc ? are the tills fixed .

[h90]

The deflation is not due to the oil prices, but yes to the incompetence of the government, they know that also , why would they have sacked the minister of economy if all was ok. ?

??? A deflation caused by some specific raw product is GOOD for the customer. Only a general deflation is bad. But it is only bad if it is significant. A 1% per year won't have any impact on general consumption.

[hugh2121]

Negative inflation? I call BS on that!

The only thing that is cheaper that I purchase is petrol and that even lags behind the market rate.

Normal supermarket items at Big C, Lotus and Makro, food courts, restaurant and misc items are MORE than last year.

Thai logic. Sales are down, not so many customers....put up prices.

[Chao Lao Beach]

great, so if inflation, things shoudl be cheaper tommorow than today right ? I will wait to buy then

[whiteman]

Was in Central Phattya yesterday it was nearly emty at lunch time also the motor way from sin city to ShiRacha much less traffic it was a nice drive long may both last

[kerrysum]

Now negative inflation is based on falling oil prices alone? So it has nothing to do with the country's industries going backwards, loosing markets, lower tourist numbers, less income, lack of confidence in the economy and those in charge.

So if its all because of oil, most other countries will have negative inflation also. News Flash: They're not!

Everything I am buying lately is increasing in price. Negative inflation is just a crock.

Remember the famous quote? The pint is the pound the world round? Get over it! Face the facts there is just too much corruption that goes around in the world.... Just do some research.....

And yes my mother-in-law is telling me the price of eggs, now in Thailand. Gee whiz mom. we have a farm and land, and yet we can never raise chickens? So you want to go downtown and buy eggs? At triple the price you can raise a chicken for? You go figure? That is the villages in Issan.... Ok I am done. Father-in-law? He understands... I have done it all in Thailand before, but it will never happen again. Interest only loans, against the farm, damn, how stupid... So I am personally over it..... DONE. Did it once and it worked, next time when one is not watching the candy store. it is gone.

So goes my investing in the LOS.... Chok-dee!

[kerrysum]

So let us get it straight ok? Supply and demand. So you have 42 rai, and grow some rice, vegetables, and raise some ducks.. On that 42 Rai you have some banana trees, coconut trees, and fish ponds.

Where are the children? Ahhh they do not want to work on the farm anymore, do they? We have chickens, water buffalo for plowing the land, but the children do not want to do it. We have pigs on the farm, which is quite a task, but no one wants to do it. Also on that 42 rai you grow some bamboo trees, which grow some great bamboo shoots, mmmm nobody wants to take care of it. So you try your hand at sugar cane, nobody wants to take care of it. You have a rice machine that can shell the rice? Nobody wants to take care of it.... So I guess in the end we could do it all together, make a good living, but no one wants to do it... We can grow the papaya. the mango, the thai herbs, but no one wants to take care of it... We can grow the Galanga, no one is interested, we can grow the pineapple,, again no one cares... Damn in my day I loved it, it was called self sufficient. What about today? WE could trade with neighbors, maybe trade some watermelon, and such...It is not there anymore...

Kind of sucks, because this is the Thailand that I once knew, we knew how to survive, and take care of each other. What am I doing now, well trying to preserve this way in America, My wife and I are growing great Thai vegetables, fruit, herbs, and yes I want some chickens next year, that will lay eggs. Damn at 63, I guess I haven't given up yet. WE have jujubee trees . apple trees, plum trees, fuyu persimmon tree, thai long beans , thai basil, thai vegetables, all on a little plot of about 1/3rd acre.... Do I miss the 42 rai? Yes I do, because we also developed fish ponds, and loved its' expanse...

So I guess that is the way it is, and yes my wife and I are doing this in Las Vegas , Nevada. I never give up hope.....

Have a nice day.......

[dageurreotype]

Negative inflation? I call BS on that!

The only thing that is cheaper that I purchase is petrol and that even lags behind the market rate.

Normal supermarket items at Big C, Lotus and Makro, food courts, restaurant and misc items are MORE than last year.

Thai logic. Sales are down, not so many customers....put up prices.

We;ll, it's not good marketing logic, but it is the closest Thais will come to being able to do arithmetic.

Profits down because fewer customers.

Therefore, to maintain profits while having fewer customers. each customer must pay more.

Ergo, prices go up. Plus a little extra to pay for the calculator needed to divide 4 by 2.

In general, if you think from the perspective of observing an IQ of about 80, understanding of what at first glance seems daft follows quite quickly.

Nah, it's just their flat out mindset on every damn thing. Couldn't get 4 million for your scrappy little plot of land last year? Put it up to six this year. Muppets.

[Srikcir]

“Thailand is highly likely to post negative inflation in 2015 for the first time in six years”

Let’s stop the word games.

“The negative inflation in January 2015 was short-term and impermanent” - Finance Minister Sommai Phasi, 2015-02-02

“The Commerce Ministry has insisted that Thailand has not been experiencing deflation despite negative inflation for four consecutive months.” - Thai Visa 2015-05-03

“deflation would have to continue for another 5-6 months in order to establish a trend.” - Deputy Prime Minister, 2015-05-06

“Disinflation - or negative inflation - has hit Thailand for the past five months in a row…. While disinflation is a temporary phenomenon of price decline, deflation represents a general collapse in prices and demand, aggravated by a lack of fresh investment and a marked slowdown in the velocity of money (its speed of circulation).” - The Nation, 2015-06-05

Then the nation is now in Deflation, regardless of the excuses and definitions. There is nothing temporary about it and Somkid better find quick solutions for sustained capital infusion before Thailand has sustained deflation.

[Ulic]

I used to drive 100km on my scooter and pay 100 baht to refuel. Now I drive110 km

and pay 80 baht to fill up. I like it.

[Firefan]

This IS funny! We have negative inflation but not deflation....huh!? ? Cheers!

[spidermike007]

From a macro economic standpoint this may be the case, but I doubt any consumers would agree. Maybe gas is about the same as it was some time ago at the pump, but little else is the same. For instance:

1. Soaring land prices nationwide.

2. Oranges have gone from 25-30 baht per kilo two years ago, to 55-140 baht per kilo today.

3. Most other fruits and vegetables are considerably higher than just two years ago.

4. Airfares have gone up significantly, especially the international fares.

5. Cars and trucks have gone up in price.

6. Water and electric have gone up in price.

So, what exactly has gone down? Oil prices have dropped, but the price at the pump does not entirely reflect that. Rent and home prices have gone up, license fees, movie tickets, and the cost of popcorn at the movies has doubled in two years.

What am I missing here?

[lostoday]

From a macro economic standpoint this may be the case, but I doubt any consumers would agree. Maybe gas is about the same as it was some time ago at the pump, but little else is the same. For instance:

1. Soaring land prices nationwide.

2. Oranges have gone from 25-30 baht per kilo two years ago, to 55-140 baht per kilo today.

3. Most other fruits and vegetables are considerably higher than just two years ago.

4. Airfares have gone up significantly, especially the international fares.

5. Cars and trucks have gone up in price.

6. Water and electric have gone up in price.

So, what exactly has gone down? Oil prices have dropped, but the price at the pump does not entirely reflect that. Rent and home prices have gone up, license fees, movie tickets, and the cost of popcorn at the movies has doubled in two years.

What am I missing here?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-price-index-cpi

[spidermike007]

From a macro economic standpoint this may be the case, but I doubt any consumers would agree. Maybe gas is about the same as it was some time ago at the pump, but little else is the same. For instance:

1. Soaring land prices nationwide.

2. Oranges have gone from 25-30 baht per kilo two years ago, to 55-140 baht per kilo today.

3. Most other fruits and vegetables are considerably higher than just two years ago.

4. Airfares have gone up significantly, especially the international fares.

5. Cars and trucks have gone up in price.

6. Water and electric have gone up in price.

So, what exactly has gone down? Oil prices have dropped, but the price at the pump does not entirely reflect that. Rent and home prices have gone up, license fees, movie tickets, and the cost of popcorn at the movies has doubled in two years.

What am I missing here?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-price-index-cpi

That is all macro economics. It means little to those of us who have to work for a living, and see prices climbing daily. I see the same sort of nonsense back in the US. Silly numbers being thrown about, but the reality on the ground does not confirm any of that. It is a fantasy either manufactured by a government, or they take into account larger factors that do not affect those of us who compromise the 92%.

[Thai at Heart]

From a macro economic standpoint this may be the case, but I doubt any consumers would agree. Maybe gas is about the same as it was some time ago at the pump, but little else is the same. For instance:

1. Soaring land prices nationwide.

2. Oranges have gone from 25-30 baht per kilo two years ago, to 55-140 baht per kilo today.

3. Most other fruits and vegetables are considerably higher than just two years ago.

4. Airfares have gone up significantly, especially the international fares.

5. Cars and trucks have gone up in price.

6. Water and electric have gone up in price.

So, what exactly has gone down? Oil prices have dropped, but the price at the pump does not entirely reflect that. Rent and home prices have gone up, license fees, movie tickets, and the cost of popcorn at the movies has doubled in two years.

What am I missing here?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-price-index-cpi

That is all macro economics. It means little to those of us who have to work for a living, and see prices climbing daily. I see the same sort of nonsense back in the US. Silly numbers being thrown about, but the reality on the ground does not confirm any of that. It is a fantasy either manufactured by a government, or they take into account larger factors that do not affect those of us who compromise the 92%.

Thailand CPI excludes raw petroleum products and raw food items. Hence it does not track food prices. I am not sure if they track a retail price index.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=409&language=eng