Emergency:Thailand may be completely dry in January

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

And you know this how? by killing a chicken and reading its entrails. To much today is judged by looking in the rear view mirror. Maybe by looking out the windshield you might see that the terrain has changed considerably.

And the significance of this "terrain change" is what? January will prove that my windshield is pretty clear, wait and see.

[chiang mai]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Historically that has not been the case. We're currently half way through the peak rainfall month, does it feel like that to you!

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Chiang-Mai-weather-averages/Chiang-Mai/TH.aspx

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Says who?

I do. It's called an opinion but it's based on knowledge.

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

September already

What month is this rain going to

Appear .

In only a few weeks time dry season will be here again

It is not scaremongering the country will have a big problem next year and it will have an effect on everyday life

It is scaremongering and it's scaremongering by ignorant idiots. We'll see that I'm right in January when all the dams haven't dried up and Thailand isn't completely dry.

Edited September 11, 2015 by Sviss Geez

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Historically that has not been the case. We're currently half way through the peak rainfall month, does it feel like that to you!

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Chiang-Mai-weather-averages/Chiang-Mai/TH.aspx

You asked a rather odd question but, yes, it does feel like we're nearly halfway through September, possibly because that's where we are!

[hanuman2543]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Says who?

I do. It's called an opinion but it's based on knowledge.

Are you a weather frog in real life?

[elgordo38]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Are you a meteorologist with your own local weather station? Perhaps a water conservation and dams expert? Are you qualified in irrigation work perhaps?

I don't think you are correct and I have been collecting the weather station reports from the Thai Weather Bureau at the Khampaeng Phet weather station for several years now.

No, I'm not, I don't need to be a meteorologist.

Good luck with your hobby, let's see who's right in January, eh?

I am with you lets see what January brings. I have watched weather forecasts over the years. They are like stock market predictions. Usually when they say up its down so its best to bet against them. I think we should cut Sviss Cheese a little slack he might have a Genie trapped in a bottle. I finally trapped the Genie in a bottle and quit drinking. Maybe they are one in the same. If anyone is taking bets on January let me know I might bet a few sheckles. Cheers.

[metisdead]

26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.

One post removed.

[MaeJoMTB]

I can't agree with 'Ukrules'. This is not the UK, and living with limited or nil water is no fun. Rain water runs to waste, there is little guttering or tanks and while it might be full of atmospheric crud, it can be used for many things other than drinking.

Yeah, but we don't have to live here.

If the water becomes limited, we just move somewhere else.

[ukrules]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

[Stevemercer]

They built a desalination plant at Sydney about 7 years ago. It took 18 months to build and cost the equivalent of 50 billion baht. Of course, by the time it was commissioned the drought was over and all the dams were full again. They have to process some water through to keep it in working order, but it hasn't been fully operatioanl to date becasue there has been plenty of dam water available.

But at least the Government was proactive to drought proof Sydney, because there will certainly be droughts again.

[billd766]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Are you a meteorologist with your own local weather station? Perhaps a water conservation and dams expert? Are you qualified in irrigation work perhaps?

I don't think you are correct and I have been collecting the weather station reports from the Thai Weather Bureau at the Khampaeng Phet weather station for several years now.

No, I'm not, I don't need to be a meteorologist.

Good luck with your hobby, let's see who's right in January, eh?

My fishpond is usually full to overflowing by the end of October most years. Last year it only made about 80% and today it is less than 50% full.

I will be looking forward to January to see who will be right. If it is you I will apologise.

[billd766]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Historically that has not been the case. We're currently half way through the peak rainfall month, does it feel like that to you!

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Chiang-Mai-weather-averages/Chiang-Mai/TH.aspx

Not here either.

[billd766]

I can't agree with 'Ukrules'. This is not the UK, and living with limited or nil water is no fun. Rain water runs to waste, there is little guttering or tanks and while it might be full of atmospheric crud, it can be used for many things other than drinking.

Yeah, but we don't have to live here.

If the water becomes limited, we just move somewhere else.

Wonderful. This means that I can say to my wife, son and family " Well there is no water so I am off somewhere else where there is. Give me a call when it is raining again, Byeeeeee

Yeah, right I can see that going down well.

[Stevemercer]

My dams were overflowing by the end of September in 2013 and 2014. This year, as of 11 September, they are at 25% (the same level as at the end of the dry season). We have had plenty of light rain, which has kept everything green, but little heavy rain and subsequent run-off. None of the local creeks have had flowing water this wet season so far.

The wind has started to switch from the south to the north which is usually a sign that the start of the dry season is only a few weeks away. I really hope we get some heavy rain in the next few weeks. I need at least 500 ml to get through the dry season. I think most of Thailand's dams need the same. I can't see it happening this year.

[billd766]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

That seems like a sort of a plan.

A bit lacking in detail as how to pump the desalinated water to 514,000 sq/km of Thailand to something like 67,000,000 people, how much it will cost, how long it will take and who will be able to afford the water bills in the future?

However it is a plan.

[Stray]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

On the offshore drilling rigs that I have worked/lived on, fresh water often had to be delivered as the desalination plant(s) couldn't keep up with the rig's fresh water requirements.

Desalination systems are a 'power-hungry' system. Guess everyone could turn off their air-conditioners so the power would be available to run several desalination plants in Thailand.

This is the second year running that there hasn't been enough rain for people in our area to get their rice crops in.

[sandyf]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

That seems like a sort of a plan.

A bit lacking in detail as how to pump the desalinated water to 514,000 sq/km of Thailand to something like 67,000,000 people, how much it will cost, how long it will take and who will be able to afford the water bills in the future?

However it is a plan.

I think it is only certain parts of Thailand. I was up in Nong Khai a couple of weeks ago and it P'd it down every day. Some of the guests where I was staying were concerned that the river would overflow, no water shortage there.

Here in Chonburi we have had hardly any rain and our wells are way below where they should be at this time of year. Not looking good for next year, we can only hope that the rainy season comes early.

We are right on the coast so a desalination plant wouldn't be too much of a problem for this area. Many people around here buy their water anyway, comes in by tanker, and quite often towards the end of the dry season availability becomes a problem and the price goes up.

[chiang mai]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

On the offshore drilling rigs that I have worked/lived on, fresh water often had to be delivered as the desalination plant(s) couldn't keep up with the rig's fresh water requirements.

Desalination systems are a 'power-hungry' system. Guess everyone could turn off their air-conditioners so the power would be available to run several desalination plants in Thailand.

This is the second year running that there hasn't been enough rain for people in our area to get their rice crops in.

Yes, but combining a desalination plant as a part of another manufacturing business is cost effective. Dubal in Dubai did this many years ago, they established a water desalination plant on the back of an aluminum smelting operation, the desal. plant in Al Ain now supplies over one third of Dubai's drinking water at zero direct cost.

[billd766]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

That seems like a sort of a plan.

A bit lacking in detail as how to pump the desalinated water to 514,000 sq/km of Thailand to something like 67,000,000 people, how much it will cost, how long it will take and who will be able to afford the water bills in the future?

However it is a plan.

I think it is only certain parts of Thailand. I was up in Nong Khai a couple of weeks ago and it P'd it down every day. Some of the guests where I was staying were concerned that the river would overflow, no water shortage there.

Here in Chonburi we have had hardly any rain and our wells are way below where they should be at this time of year. Not looking good for next year, we can only hope that the rainy season comes early.

We are right on the coast so a desalination plant wouldn't be too much of a problem for this area. Many people around here buy their water anyway, comes in by tanker, and quite often towards the end of the dry season availability becomes a problem and the price goes up.

Our water supply by the Mae Wong national park comes from the klong running through the park and is dependant on rainfall. Nornally it stops for a couple of months a year around February/March time. Last year my fishpond only got to about 3/4 full and was as dry as a bone by mid January and the government water supply stopped about the same time.

This year my fishpond isn't even half full but the government water came back on in mid August after about 6 months of no piped supply. We can get a delivery from the fire truck for free but my wife has to go down to the tessaban and ask plus she has to sign for the delivery of perhaps 9 cu3 every time. It takes about 3 weeks between deliveries and we can also buy it from another source at 50 baht per 1 cu3.

IMHO I think next year will be worse than this yearand I have been saying that for at least 6 months.

The only good thing about the drought is that I don't have to cut the damned grass and scrub. At the first sign of a wet patch though you can hear the grass laughing as it sprouts overnight. After a week of 1 to 1/2 hours, 5 days a week I can feel my back going on strike.

[chiang mai]

We had a borehole drilled four months ago, in anticipation, at 50 feet I fear we didn't go deep enough and I'm considering a second one to a deeper level, even though the klong in our garden has been free flowing for the past two months.

[chiang mai]

But but but...an expert poster has assured us all it will be alright and that this is just scaremongering, maybe the Agriculture Minister hasn't heard!.

[warriorbangkok]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?/topic/855349-Cabinet-to-be-asked-to-completely-ban-second-crop-farming-for-2015-16-season

[sandyf]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?/topic/855349-Cabinet-to-be-asked-to-completely-ban-second-crop-farming-for-2015-16-season

From the link.

"Agriculture Minister Gen Chatchai Sarikalya pointed out that by the end of the rainy season at the end of October, it was anticipated that the country’s main dams would be able to store a total of 3,600 million cubic metres of water which is hardly enough for agricultural purpose."

From the previous post

"Agriculture Minister Chatchai Sarikulya is set to propose a ban on the second rice crop (totaling 15 million rai) when he addresses the cabinet on Tuesday. This proposal shall come at a time when water shortages have been discovered to be far more serious than previously thought.

Apparently, water reserves are set to stand at only 3.6 million cubic meters at the the end of the rainy season on Oct 31st."

[warriorbangkok]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?/topic/855349-Cabinet-to-be-asked-to-completely-ban-second-crop-farming-for-2015-16-season

From the link.

"Agriculture Minister Gen Chatchai Sarikalya pointed out that by the end of the rainy season at the end of October, it was anticipated that the country’s main dams would be able to store a total of 3,600 million cubic metres of water which is hardly enough for agricultural purpose."

From the previous post

"Agriculture Minister Chatchai Sarikulya is set to propose a ban on the second rice crop (totaling 15 million rai) when he addresses the cabinet on Tuesday. This proposal shall come at a time when water shortages have been discovered to be far more serious than previously thought.

Apparently, water reserves are set to stand at only 3.6 million cubic meters at the the end of the rainy season on Oct 31st."

Yeah I noticed that Sandy. Thank you.

The Bangkok Post quoted 3.6 million, which is why I put that figure in.

It seems like even respectable tabloids can't get their numbers correct.

[Sviss Geez]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?/topic/855349-Cabinet-to-be-asked-to-completely-ban-second-crop-farming-for-2015-16-season

From the link.

"Agriculture Minister Gen Chatchai Sarikalya pointed out that by the end of the rainy season at the end of October, it was anticipated that the country’s main dams would be able to store a total of 3,600 million cubic metres of water which is hardly enough for agricultural purpose."

From the previous post

"Agriculture Minister Chatchai Sarikulya is set to propose a ban on the second rice crop (totaling 15 million rai) when he addresses the cabinet on Tuesday. This proposal shall come at a time when water shortages have been discovered to be far more serious than previously thought.

Apparently, water reserves are set to stand at only 3.6 million cubic meters at the the end of the rainy season on Oct 31st."

Yeah I noticed that Sandy. Thank you.

The Bangkok Post quoted 3.6 million, which is why I put that figure in.

It seems like even respectable tabloids can't get their numbers correct.

For the record The Bangkok Post is a broadsheet, not a tabloid. There's something else that you don't know anything about.

[Stray]

If the water does ever run dry we can just desalinate the sea water. Think of the kind of systems they have available on oceangoing boats.

On the offshore drilling rigs that I have worked/lived on, fresh water often had to be delivered as the desalination plant(s) couldn't keep up with the rig's fresh water requirements.

Desalination systems are a 'power-hungry' system. Guess everyone could turn off their air-conditioners so the power would be available to run several desalination plants in Thailand.

This is the second year running that there hasn't been enough rain for people in our area to get their rice crops in.

Yes, but combining a desalination plant as a part of another manufacturing business is cost effective. Dubal in Dubai did this many years ago, they established a water desalination plant on the back of an aluminum smelting operation, the desal. plant in Al Ain now supplies over one third of Dubai's drinking water at zero direct cost.

Producing the heat is why desalination systems require so much power. Heat produced by the smelter, you mentioned, is supplied to the desalination plant, thus reducing the plant's power needs but it doesn't eliminate the requirement for power. Only reduces it.

However, the majority of Dubai's fresh water is produced at the DEWA (Dubai Electricity and Water Authority) desalination plants at Jebel Ali. These plants use gas to heat the water (and can also be run on diesel, if required). Rather than a 'zero direct cost', a fuel surcharge (to run these plants and the new ones coming online) is included in DEWA's water and power bills.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, perhaps people in Thailand can turn off their air-conditioners to alleviate the power problems. But, with no water flowing through the hydroelectric schemes, the problems seem to be compounding.

No worries, I read somewhere, in this thread, that all of our water problems will be solved by/in January.

Edited September 12, 2015 by Stray

[chiang mai]

Thanks for that, I may have the location wrong, Jebel Ali vs Al Ain, the former sounds correct - also, DEWA used to be Dubal, I did the fallback planning for them mid. 1980's when their water intake got bombed during the Iran/Iraq war. But back on topic:

Yes, "reliable: sources tell us it'll all be OK by year end and not to panic, personally, I'm into panic on this one.

[Stray]

Thanks for that, I may have the location wrong, Jebel Ali vs Al Ain, the former sounds correct - also, DEWA used to be Dubal, I did the fallback planning for them mid. 1980's when their water intake got bombed during the Iran/Iraq war. But back on topic:

Yes, "reliable: sources tell us it'll all be OK by year end and not to panic, personally, I'm into panic on this one.

No worries chiang mai. It's good to have a sensible discussion with a member(s) and not have to bail out due to flaming, trolling, accusations and innuendo.

And, a correction in my post.

When I said that onshore desalination plants were 'power hungry', I should have said that they are 'resource hungry'. As it is fuel that is required to run the heating, not electricity.

Bore holes/wells are running dry in our area. Some of the neighbours, who can afford it, are having to drill deeper to get water. Us included. I've also just finished having rain gutters installed around the house and will be getting rain water tanks put in.

Might be too little, too late, for this year but the dry conditions are serving as a 'wake up call' for me to start storing and conserving water. No matter if the dry conditions don't continue. Nothing wrong with 'future proofing' while it's affordable. I can't imagine the cost of water management systems if everyone is forced to start installing them.

could be a tip to any budding entrepreneurs, small business start-ups . . .

[sandyf]

Thanks for that, I may have the location wrong, Jebel Ali vs Al Ain, the former sounds correct - also, DEWA used to be Dubal, I did the fallback planning for them mid. 1980's when their water intake got bombed during the Iran/Iraq war. But back on topic:

Yes, "reliable: sources tell us it'll all be OK by year end and not to panic, personally, I'm into panic on this one.

In 1970 I was at Sharjah, just a few miles from Dubai. In the summer months we only got running water for a couple of hours in the morning and then again in the evening. went off at 10pm until 6 the following morning.

Wouldn't want to see anyone have to face that again.