Russian action ‘resets chessboard in Syria,’ says analyst

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Russian action ‘resets chessboard in Syria,’ says analyst

A US-based analyst has told euronews that Russia’s actions have “reset the chessboard in Syria.”

Dr. Vali Nasr, Dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC, is a widely-respected Middle East scholar and a commentator on international relations.

He also served as a US State Department advisor during the first Obama administration.

James Franey, euronews: “How would you characterise Obama’s strategy on Syria? Is there one?”

Dr. Vali Nasr: “Well, the American administration has been very reluctant to get directly involved in Syria. Particularly militarily, fearing that is is a slippery slope to war.

“On the diplomatic front, it has remained content with calling for Assad to leave office, but it has not really put its shoulder into coming up with a diplomatic solution that would end the war.

“So in large, the US has a position on Syria but it doesn’t have a strategy for ending the war.”

euronews: “So how do Russia’s recent actions change things on the ground?”

Dr. Vali Nasr: “Russia has taken a much more active role and has been able to step into a vacuum that has been left by the United States.

“But more importantly the Russian action has essentially reset the chessboard in Syria. And it is also going to make it much more difficult for the United States to carry through with its aerial bombing of ISIS positions, with the talk of a no-fly zone, and any other potential actions the United States may have taken down the road vis a vis the Assad regime.

“Because now everybody is really going to be confronting the Russian military and that’s a very different calculation than any of the countries or stakeholders in Syria had to confront before.”

euronews: “So if you were advising President Obama today, what would you be saying to him?”

Dr. Vali Nasr: “Previously this was really about a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And that meant neither side was willing to compromise because it saw the outcome in Syria as basically a verdict on the competition as to which one of them was going to win.

“Now both for Iran and Saudi Arabia, the game has changed, especially for the Saudis. They are not confronting Iran anymore. They are confronting Russia. And the same with Turkey, which also had a disagreement with Iran over Assad. They are not confronting Iran either.

“Syria was at an impasse before. There was no easy diplomatic way forward. Everybody was dug into their position. Russia has changed the dynamic. The key question for President Obama is to see whether there is an opportunity for the United States to be able to do what it couldn’t do before.”

euronews: “But I guess the question is really… how much of a change is there? At the end of the day, the end game for Russia will always be President Assad.”

Dr. Vali Nasr: “Of course, Russia’s dog in this fight is Assad. Their reputation is connected to saving Assad. Their strategic interest is connected to saving Assad. But in the end, in every conflict, the protagonists have cynical motivations for why they are doing the fighting.

“For the Iranians, it was about their reputation and the protection of Hezbollah. For the Saudis, it was defeating Iran and humiliating it in Syria. So everybody has cynical motivations here and whoever wins in Syria will obviously be much more emboldened one way or the other.

“But as was the case also with the Balkans, there is a benefit in ending the conflict. There is a benefit for Europe because they would end the refugee crisis. There would be a benefit for countries in the region because the continuation of the war will be even more destabilising.”

Source: http://www.euronews.com/2015/10/02/russian-action-resets-chessboard-in-syria/

-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2015-10-03

[hard124get]

I would say Obama is in check.

[bassman]

I would say Putin is playing a dangerous game. The Soviet and American leaders of the past went to great lengths to at least appear that their forces did not get into direct conflict. That is because of the fear of all sides on the 8,000 plus nuclear warheads pointed at each other as well as escalation to a conventional third world war. Putin is a dangerous hot head that is deflecting his own piss pour management of Russian economy into blaming all bad on America.

Obama will not be president much longer, all America needs is for a Putin type hot head to get elected and let Armageddon begin.

[Briggsy]

Forget chess.

Let's play cards.

America holds the Trump.

(but seriously it seems a concise, accurate summation of the state of play)

[ggt]

If this were a chess match...Putin would still be waiting for Obama to try and decide where to place his pieces...Putin has made his move...now he is waiting to see if Obama will just throw in the towel...or just continue to talk/whine about Russias first move...

Edited October 3, 2015 by ggt

[retarius]

To me the only ones making any sort of sense in Syria are the Russians. Pentagon bulletins may be dismissed as outright lies.

[NeverSure]

Putin rightly has Obama pegged as a hopeless fool. Putin knows a puzzy when he sees one and he's not one bit afraid of Obama. He will continue to show Obama as the helpless and inept idiot that he is.

Obama arms terrible Islamists that are of his camp, and Putin arms terrible Islamists that are of his camp. Now Putin can see that Obama won't back his side so Putin is going to take it out.

Obama is an idiot and a disgrace. Putin is no smarter and no better. He just has balls.

I just hope that Obama is gone before the US gets too many phony "refugees" in country that have to be dealt with later by others. Europe is already sunk and is only a couple of decades away from being Muslim.

Cheers.

[Nerone]

I would say Putin is playing a dangerous game. The Soviet and American leaders of the past went to great lengths to at least appear that their forces did not get into direct conflict. That is because of the fear of all sides on the 8,000 plus nuclear warheads pointed at each other as well as escalation to a conventional third world war. Putin is a dangerous hot head that is deflecting his own piss pour management of Russian economy into blaming all bad on America.

Obama will not be president much longer, all America needs is for a Putin type hot head to get elected and let Armageddon begin.

Fuckin hell...I wish you were wrong...