"Algorithm" used to calculate daily Thai Baht Gold price ?

[orang37]

I assume there is some matrix of factors including in-country supply/demand, exchange rates, international spot prices, etc. And, I wouldn't be surprised if consulting the I Ching also comes into play

If you have any information about how the "fix" is calculated during the Thai Baht Gold shops working hours, I'd appreciate your response.

Also looking for a database of Thai Baht Gold prices for the last several years.

thanks, ~o:37;

[swissie]

I see, these days it's "Algorithm's".

What did we have before:

- Fundamental analysis

- Chart analysis

- Trend following methods

- Williams RX 10 method

- Elliot Wave theory

- Fibonacci sequences / curves

The list is not complete. None of them work over an extended period of time. What works ?

Warren Buffet's recipe: Do your homework (tedious and time consuming fundamental analysis) and above all BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. Start with this in your early 20ties.

There you have it.

Cheers.

[Naam]

there's no such thing like an actual gold price "fix" in Thailand and of course no algorithm is used. most shops have a feed from Bloomberg or Thomson Reuters and adjust their selling and purchasing price on the fly when it fluctuates more than 1% from the published price outside their shop taking USD/THB exchange rate into consideration.

[Stocky]

As said above there is no fix, just a simple calculation.

((USD Gold Price x 0.4823) x Bht/USD exchange rate) x 0.965 = Price in Baht for 1 Baht weight (96.5% purity)

Historical prices can be found here

http://www.goldpricethai.com/archive

Edited October 17, 2015 by Stocky

[elgordo38]

I see, these days it's "Algorithm's".

What did we have before:

- Fundamental analysis

- Chart analysis

- Trend following methods

- Williams RX 10 method

- Elliot Wave theory

- Fibonacci sequences / curves

The list is not complete. None of them work over an extended period of time. What works ?

Warren Buffet's recipe: Do your homework (tedious and time consuming fundamental analysis) and above all BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. Start with this in your early 20ties.

There you have it.

Cheers.

What works is inside manipulation of the gold market similar to manipulation of other markets. I have been led to believe that the Comex does not have enough physical gold to cover all the "paper" gold out there should everybody decide to redeem their paper gold at the same time. I heard a rumor that there are 225 ounces of "paper" gold out there for every ounce of physical gold in storage. It is also hard to understand that the Dow has increased in 10 of the 11 straight past sessions. One only has to look at Walmart earnings and 2016 projections to hear the canary coughing in the coal mine. Walmart is a bellweather stock.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

The price is calculated by taking the NY spot price x Baht/USD exchange rate x conversion for the purity from the international 99,99% purity to the Thai 96,5% purity x conversion from troy ounce to baht weight and the premium charged which stays nearly the same everyday.

[ggt]

Ultimately, the price is determined by the ebb and flow of the market (when not being manipulated by dumping of paper shorts)...large numbers of buyers and the price goes up...large numbers of sellers...and the price goes down.

There appears to be tremendous corruption and manipulation of market prices in precious metals by those holding paper...being investigated as we speak...

Edited October 18, 2015 by ggt

[Suradit69]

there's no such thing like an actual gold price "fix" in Thailand and of course no algorithm is used. most shops have a feed from Bloomberg or Thomson Reuters and adjust their selling and purchasing price on the fly when it fluctuates more than 1% from the published price outside their shop taking USD/THB exchange rate into consideration.

It's set in baht terms several times a day. I use the dollar price x 0.473 x the dollar exchange rate to approximate the value.

The one factor that can make it off a bit is the exchange rate used.

When I buy or sell gold a my usual shop the owner uses a phone app to ensure the current Bangkok pricing. You can see the NY price and the Thai price as well as the date and time when it was last set on the website for Thai gold.

Baht is a unit of weight measurement for Gold in Thailand where 1 Baht is equal to 15.244 grams in raw bullion form or 15.16 grams when it sold as jewellery. Thai Gold is also measured in "Salung" which is a smaller unit when compared with Baht, where 1 salung is a quarter baht (0.25 baht) or 3.81 grams.

A purity of 96.5 percent means in 1 Baht of Gold 96.5 percent of it is pure gold while the rest is made of metals such as silver.

Hence, in 1 Baht Gold there is normally 14.71 grams of pure gold which is a little less than half a troy ounce (0.473 ozt). To calculate the weight or price of gold in different units go to Gold Calculator

Every shop in Thailand follows the gold price set by the Thai Gold Traders Association. Thai Gold price does not fluctuate very often like the world gold market, because it only changes in multiples of 50 baht

Edited October 18, 2015 by Suradit69

[swissie]

I see, these days it's "Algorithm's".

What did we have before:

- Fundamental analysis

- Chart analysis

- Trend following methods

- Williams RX 10 method

- Elliot Wave theory

- Fibonacci sequences / curves

The list is not complete. None of them work over an extended period of time. What works ?

Warren Buffet's recipe: Do your homework (tedious and time consuming fundamental analysis) and above all BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. Start with this in your early 20ties.

There you have it.

Cheers.

What works is inside manipulation of the gold market similar to manipulation of other markets. I have been led to believe that the Comex does not have enough physical gold to cover all the "paper" gold out there should everybody decide to redeem their paper gold at the same time. I heard a rumor that there are 225 ounces of "paper" gold out there for every ounce of physical gold in storage. It is also hard to understand that the Dow has increased in 10 of the 11 straight past sessions. One only has to look at Walmart earnings and 2016 projections to hear the canary coughing in the coal mine. Walmart is a bellweather stock.

COMEX never in it's history had enough physical gold stored in it's approved and certified "warehouses" to cover all the "outstanding" paper gold.

It would take some cataclysmic event of epic proportion to trigger a "redeeming" panic of paper gold holders. At least the US government would know how to stifle this sort of "gold-rush" immediately: "No US citizen is allowed to own physical gold as of today," We had this before. It was only in the mid 60ties when president Nixon allowed US citizens to own physical gold again.

- But yes, the canary has been coughing in the coal mine for a long time. The canary is not coughing because he has nothing better to do = he is suffering from terminal lung cancer!

As the Chinese say: We shall be living in "interesting times" soon.

Cheers.

[Timebandit]

President Ford declared in the mid 70's that gold was once again legal for Americans to own. Look it up- don't make it up.

[Johpa]

Just remember that Thai "baat gold" that has the proper local hallmarks can be bought and sold at the locally posted prices but you may have problems selling for a similar price outside of Thailand where many gold shops will not even make you an offer. The really high sakdina Bangkok people buy their gold in Hong Kong. The highest sakdina people are selling, but that is unrelated to the price of gold.

[csabo]

Just remember that Thai "baat gold" that has the proper local hallmarks can be bought and sold at the locally posted prices but you may have problems selling for a similar price outside of Thailand where many gold shops will not even make you an offer. The really high sakdina Bangkok people buy their gold in Hong Kong. The highest sakdina people are selling, but that is unrelated to the price of gold.

So Thai gold outside of Thailand is worthless? Why is that?

[ggt]

Sellers/Buyers of gold are located in most mid to large US cities...they sell gold/silver bars and coins...the US Mint is in the business of minting coins to sell to the public...they have been running behind on filling orders at times...

Additionally, there are scores of Precious Metal Businesses on the internet who will sell/buy precious metals, ship them to you, or store them in storage facilities...

Government intervention is always a potential problem...as the government goes broke...smart citizens, who have protected their wealth by purchasing gold, will be the last man standing and ripe for abuse...like confiscation...

[Naam]

Just remember that Thai "baat gold" that has the proper local hallmarks can be bought and sold at the locally posted prices but you may have problems selling for a similar price outside of Thailand where many gold shops will not even make you an offer. The really high sakdina Bangkok people buy their gold in Hong Kong. The highest sakdina people are selling, but that is unrelated to the price of gold.

So Thai gold outside of Thailand is worthless? Why is that?

because a "real" goldbug buys 24 and not 23 karat gold.

[orang37]

Khop Khun Khrup, to those of you who chose to reply thoughtfully, constructively, specially Khuns Stocky, SouthernStar, Suradit69

I was aware the price is set by the Thai Gold Traders Assn., and what I was interested in was the factors they take into account. In the last months there have been several "anomalies" in the tracking of the relation of Thai Baht Gold buy/sell price to international spot prices and the US $ exchange rate.

A reasonable hypothesis is that in-country supply and demand are a factor.

It may well be the case that other currency exchange rates in relation to gold besides the US are taken into account (Japan, for example where Gartman has made significant profits by being long on gold in Yen).

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/something-has-changed-in-the-gold-trade-gartman.html

On this thread, we award the "off-topic bloviation" prize to Swissie, and the "why think when you can just be opinionated" prize to Naam.

~o:37;

[orang37]

As said above there is no fix, just a simple calculation.

((USD Gold Price x 0.4823) x Bht/USD exchange rate) x 0.965 = Price in Baht for 1 Baht weight (96.5% purity)

Historical prices can be found here

http://www.goldpricethai.com/archive

Thanks for the link, Khun Stocky, I was aware of that site; unfortunately, they limit the chunk of price information you can get in one "click" to 30 days. I suspect there are other databases around, somewhere.

~o:37;

[Stocky]

^ Well they do also have graphs of 30 day, 3 & 6 months, 1, 2, 5 & 10 years.

[fletchsmile]

Not aware of any algorithim used, but the following website from the gold traders association has a load of good info on it.

http://www.goldtraders.or.th/Default.aspx

Shows the current price and most recent time it was set. They even have their own forum which looks remarkably like Thai Visa LOL

If someone wanted a formula for converting between prices as an estimate of what it should be then they could use the one below:

= LBMA Gold Price AM x (15.244/31.1035) x (0.965/0.995) x (THB/USD)

It's actually from TFEX and used for gold futures settlement rather than physical gold but gives the idea, and a read of the education bit would help someone understand a bit more on Thai gold generally and not just futures.

http://www.tfex.co.th/en/products/gold-spec.html

Cheers

Fletch

[KhunBENQ]

In the last months there have been several "anomalies" in the tracking of the relation of Thai Baht Gold buy/sell price to international spot prices and the US $ exchange rate.

Can you please work that out and post when gold in Thailand is cheaper than in the rest of the world

If there is a significant gain I would rush with my suitcase full of cheap Thai gold to Hong Kong to sell.

Edited October 20, 2015 by KhunBENQ

[csabo]

Just remember that Thai "baat gold" that has the proper local hallmarks can be bought and sold at the locally posted prices but you may have problems selling for a similar price outside of Thailand where many gold shops will not even make you an offer. The really high sakdina Bangkok people buy their gold in Hong Kong. The highest sakdina people are selling, but that is unrelated to the price of gold.

So Thai gold outside of Thailand is worthless? Why is that?

because a "real" goldbug buys 24 and not 23 karat gold.

Maybe gold bars. Not jewelry. Thai gold jewelry is far superior to typical western 18kt. Any jeweler would gladly pay the appropriate value.

[orang37]

1. Thai Gold "worthless" outside Thailand:

A confusion of "not as easily sold/turned-into-cash" with "worthless."

2. "please work that out and post when gold in Thailand is cheaper than in the rest of the world"

This is, of course, a simple attempt at sniping via ad hominem implication, about as irritating as a house-fly/

For someone to take advantage of variations in relations of currency to gold-spot-price, one would have to be a very major player; i.e, dealing in very large quantities of gold, or options on same. In fact, Dennis Gartman, editor of the US $400 per month financial newsletter, The Gartman Report, does exactly this in his own long-term investing, and advises others to do this.

[orang37]

Maybe gold bars. Not jewelry. Thai gold jewelry is far superior to typical western 18kt. Any jeweler would gladly pay the appropriate value.

Someone with the typical small quantity of Thai gold is going to take a hit selling it outside Thailand; a jeweler is going to charge for the cost of processing the gold (i.e., melting it down, and turning it to some other commonly used carat-quality, like 18k, 12k, etc.).

[hhgz]

"What works is inside manipulation of the gold market similar to manipulation of other markets."

​No one is "manipulating anything, wth the exception of the videos you watched and your blind acceptance of them. Reading the various threads concerning "manipulation" are absolutely hilarious. Let's see: "China has doubled-down on its purchase of gold bullion, and has 50% of the gold reserves hidden within China. The reason that the price of gold has not increased is that China - through some unknown mechanism - has manipulated the price of gold." The same people who believe that, are also the people who believe the well-roasted chestnut that: "Many NGV taxis actually run on regular gasoline. The NGV tank has a small person inside, who steals valuables from your luggage."