Russian airliner crashes in central Sinai - Egyptian PM

[Dustdevil]

As always when these tragic events occur the Media and forum punters engage in an orgy of speculation.

Why not just wait for the expert investigators to do their work and report their findings?

It could be worse. Just saw a conspiracy theorist on YouTube saying the CIA shot the plane down.

You seem to be an expert. Exactly how many commercial aircraft have disintegrated at 30,000 + over the last 20 years? And what were the causes of those failures?

Why would it be surprising the CIA is implicated in this, defiantly not unprecedented, and not a big secret they are operating, supplying,and training rebels and or known terror groups in that area?

Now there's a broad generalization for you--bring the U.S. into anything.

[NeverSure]

Speculating is different from commenting on normal aircraft behavior, IMHO. Sometime back I commented that the rate of descent and very widely scattered debris was consistent with a mid-air breakup from an explosion or other cause. That isn't speculation but rather a comment on what might cause that.

I don't believe that these events are consistent with a "tail falling off". I that event the nose-heavy plane (they are always designed and loaded nose heavy) would descend rapidly but that wouldn't explain wreckage scattered over many kilometers.

If a plane disintegrates in mid-air, lighter pieces are slowed rapidly by wind resistance and fall. Heavier pieces with a greater cross-sectional density will maintain momentum and travel a lot farther. This works on the same principle as a velocity separator. Therefore from that altitude there will be widely scattered wreckage.

From what we've been told, and if it is accurate, the plane probably broke up in mid air and probably violently, and from one of several possible causes.

Cheers.

[MaxYakov]

I reckon bad repair, metal fatigue, tail fell off. It's happened before. But I could be wrong. That's as far as my guessing will go.

My guess as well, providing there is no evidence of a rear fuselage bomb detonation (or maybe even if there is evidence).

What we know:

1) The rear fuselage (tail section) separated from the main fuselage at some altitude (photos and statements).

2) The plane slowed drastically and gained altitude following the event (FR data - 400 knots to 60 knots)

3) The main fuselage hit with a relatively flat attitude and the main portion of the fuselage and

wings stayed together on the way down (reportedly inverted - photos and statements).

4) The engines were not in close proximity to the wings (photos).

5) I and others have noticed that the the horizontal stabilizers are not to be seen in the rear fuselage photos. Their positions relative to the rear fuselage would be very informative I should think (photos).

6) The A321's FDR/CVR are located in the non-pressurized area aft of the pressure bulkhead.

If the rear fuselage separated and carried the FDR/CVR with it, they immediately lost input/power.

If a sudden rear fuselage separation was the root cause of this crash,the FDR/CVR will probably

not have data subsequent to the separation. (A321 tech specs).

My guess: The investigators already have a pretty good idea what happened by inspecting the separated

rear fuselage or they will very soon. Based on a sudden rear fuselage separation, I would put money on

the CVR/FDR not having any useful data (other than that everything was normal at final recording - which in itself would be informative).

A very tragic event, RIP to all and condolences to family and friends.

Edited November 1, 2015 by MaxYakov

[geriatrickid]

An aircraft built in 1997 with 55,772 flight hours in 21,175 flight cycles crashes and the unfounded speculation starts.

The airline involved does not have the best reputation for airline maintenance and aside from the international Aeroflot division, Russia's aviation sector is not known for its safety or adherence to loss prevention procedures.

[slipperylobster]

Too high for a missle...no pilot error.

Crappy Maintenance or somebody was proactive in bringing that plane down by sabatage or detonation of a device. Pilot knew the problem but felt "obliged" to not cancel the flight.

Being Russian...it's fifty fifty.... They recently made huge enemies, but they also don't give a damn about flight safety. One is as bad as the other....as far as families are concerned. This was no accident...it was a deliberate intent to put a poorly maintained aircraft in the air....otherwise...it was a hostile act.

Lets see if they keep up the pace of their "bombing the bejesus out of ISIS" campaign. The ever-so-popular Putin has lost face, just after a recent rally of popularity. Wecome to the club...Mr Putin. Cannot always have it both ways. Every thing that goes wrong in that part of the world will now be attributed to your gallant bombing campaign.

A sudden decrease in his determination (and public support)....would reveal lack of conviction. I think, right now, he wants all this to be just an accident....admit to Russia's failure to maintain a civilian aircraft in working order (what a huge failure...if true).

Edited November 2, 2015 by slipperylobster

[Scott]

Was it a chartered flight with the same passengers on board who went to the resort, or did they allow others to board for the return flight?

[Thorgal]

I reckon bad repair, metal fatigue, tail fell off. It's happened before. But I could be wrong. That's as far as my guessing will go.

My guess as well, providing there is no evidence of a rear fuselage bomb detonation (or maybe even if there is evidence).

What we know:

1) The rear fuselage (tail section) separated from the main fuselage at some altitude (photos and statements).

2) The plane slowed drastically and gained altitude following the event (FR data - 400 knots to 60 knots)

3) The main fuselage hit with a relatively flat attitude and the main portion of the fuselage and

wings stayed together on the way down (reportedly inverted - photos and statements).

4) The engines were not in close proximity to the wings (photos).

5) I and others have noticed that the the horizontal stabilizers are not to be seen in the rear fuselage photos. Their positions relative to the rear fuselage would be very informative I should think (photos).

6) The A321's FDR/CVR are located in the non-pressurized area aft of the pressure bulkhead.

If the rear fuselage separated and carried the FDR/CVR with it, they immediately lost input/power.

If a sudden rear fuselage separation was the root cause of this crash,the FDR/CVR will probably

not have data subsequent to the separation. (A321 tech specs).

My guess: The investigators already have a pretty good idea what happened by inspecting the separated

rear fuselage or they will very soon. Based on a sudden rear fuselage separation, I would put money on

the CVR/FDR not having any useful data (other than that everything was normal at final recording - which in itself would be informative).

A very tragic event, RIP to all and condolences to family and friends.

So, where is the point of impact in the desert? Edited November 2, 2015 by Thorgal

[Chicog]

An aircraft built in 1997 with 55,772 flight hours in 21,175 flight cycles crashes and the unfounded speculation starts.

The airline involved does not have the best reputation for airline maintenance and aside from the international Aeroflot division, Russia's aviation sector is not known for its safety or adherence to loss prevention procedures.

An aircraft built in 1997 that experienced "substantial" damage in a 2001 tail strike.

An aircraft that appears to have suffered structural failure in flight, most probably in the region of the rear pressure bulkhead.

(And by the way, an aircraft that was at the time owned by a Middle East airline, not a Russian one).

I would hardly call it "unfounded speculation".

Edited November 2, 2015 by Chicog

[MaxYakov]

I reckon bad repair, metal fatigue, tail fell off. It's happened before. But I could be wrong. That's as far as my guessing will go.

My guess as well, providing there is no evidence of a rear fuselage bomb detonation (or maybe even if there is evidence).

What we know:

1) The rear fuselage (tail section) separated from the main fuselage at some altitude (photos and statements).

2) The plane slowed drastically and gained altitude following the event (FR data - 400 knots to 60 knots)

3) The main fuselage hit with a relatively flat attitude and the main portion of the fuselage and

wings stayed together on the way down (reportedly inverted - photos and statements).

4) The engines were not in close proximity to the wings (photos).

5) I and others have noticed that the the horizontal stabilizers are not to be seen in the rear fuselage photos. Their positions relative to the rear fuselage would be very informative I should think (photos).

6) The A321's FDR/CVR are located in the non-pressurized area aft of the pressure bulkhead.

If the rear fuselage separated and carried the FDR/CVR with it, they immediately lost input/power.

If a sudden rear fuselage separation was the root cause of this crash,the FDR/CVR will probably

not have data subsequent to the separation. (A321 tech specs).

My guess: The investigators already have a pretty good idea what happened by inspecting the separated

rear fuselage or they will very soon. Based on a sudden rear fuselage separation, I would put money on

the CVR/FDR not having any useful data (other than that everything was normal at final recording - which in itself would be informative).

A very tragic event, RIP to all and condolences to family and friends.

So, where is the point of impact in the desert?

Which piece or pieces and position accuracy to how many decimal places?

Edited November 2, 2015 by MaxYakov

[Chicog]

http://avherald.com/h?article=48e9abe4

[Thorgal]

I reckon bad repair, metal fatigue, tail fell off. It's happened before. But I could be wrong. That's as far as my guessing will go.

My guess as well, providing there is no evidence of a rear fuselage bomb detonation (or maybe even if there is evidence).

What we know:

1) The rear fuselage (tail section) separated from the main fuselage at some altitude (photos and statements).

2) The plane slowed drastically and gained altitude following the event (FR data - 400 knots to 60 knots)

3) The main fuselage hit with a relatively flat attitude and the main portion of the fuselage and

wings stayed together on the way down (reportedly inverted - photos and statements).

4) The engines were not in close proximity to the wings (photos).

5) I and others have noticed that the the horizontal stabilizers are not to be seen in the rear fuselage photos. Their positions relative to the rear fuselage would be very informative I should think (photos).

6) The A321's FDR/CVR are located in the non-pressurized area aft of the pressure bulkhead.

If the rear fuselage separated and carried the FDR/CVR with it, they immediately lost input/power.

If a sudden rear fuselage separation was the root cause of this crash,the FDR/CVR will probably

not have data subsequent to the separation. (A321 tech specs).

My guess: The investigators already have a pretty good idea what happened by inspecting the separated

rear fuselage or they will very soon. Based on a sudden rear fuselage separation, I would put money on

the CVR/FDR not having any useful data (other than that everything was normal at final recording - which in itself would be informative).

A very tragic event, RIP to all and condolences to family and friends.

So, where is the point of impact in the desert?

Which piece or pieces and position accuracy to how many decimal places?

If you can't answer the question, you can't prove your own 'theory'...

[Chicog]

If you can't answer the question, you can't prove your own 'theory'...

If it's a theory, by definition it is not proven.

However, the distribution of the wreckage is shown in the link I provided.

[HenryB]

Why is it that everyone is afraid to say it was a Bomb?

[Chicog]

Why is it that everyone is afraid to say it was a Bomb?

The Russians aren't.

A Russian airline says it is "impossible" that a technical fault or pilot error caused its jet to break up, killing 224 people.

A spokeswoman for Kogalymavia, which operated the Metrojet flight, said only "some kind of impact" could have caused the plane to start falling apart in mid-air as it flew over Egypt.

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Egypt Jet Crash Caused By 'Some Kind Of Impact'

A Russian airline says it is "impossible" that a technical fault or pilot error caused its jet to break up, killing 224 people.

A spokeswoman for Kogalymavia, which operated the Metrojet flight, said only "some kind of impact" could have caused the plane to start falling apart in mid-air as it flew over Egypt.

The aircraft's crew did not make any contact about problems with the plane during the 23 minutes before it disappeared off flight radar, the airline said.

Speaking in Moscow, managers ruled out financial problems influencing safety and said both the Airbus A321's engines had been inspected on October 26, with no problems found.

Full story: http://news.sky.com/story/1580151/egypt-jet-crash-caused-by-some-kind-of-impact

[RuamRudy]

Why is it that everyone is afraid to say it was a Bomb?

The Russians aren't.

A Russian airline says it is "impossible" that a technical fault or pilot error caused its jet to break up, killing 224 people.

A spokeswoman for Kogalymavia, which operated the Metrojet flight, said only "some kind of impact" could have caused the plane to start falling apart in mid-air as it flew over Egypt.

I can see why there may be reluctance to admit to terrorism being the cause - the Egyptians won't want their already terrorism battered tourist industry to be further affected; the Russians stand to lose public support for their Syria intervention.

The again, if it is the airline themselves, they are probably praying for terrorism to be identified as the reason.

[HenryB]

I think the Russians will show them what happen when you miss with Russia.

I remember how successful Operation Barbarossa was at the beginning and then the worm turned and they how vengeful they could be

ISIS will be begging to the UN for peace

[MaxYakov]

Sinai plane crash: Russian airline official rules out technical fault

An official from the Russian airline Metrojet has rejected the possibility that a technical fault caused Saturday’s plane crash in Egypt, which killed all 224 people on board.

The official blamed an “external factor” the crash.

Aviation experts have speculated that a sudden mechanical failure or an explosion could have been to blame after the aircraft broke up in mid-air over the Sinai desert.

Full story: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/sinai-plane-crash-russian-official-blames-external-factor-egypt

Yeah, right! Just like Japan Airlines Flight 123, the deadliest single-aircraft accident in history, was not a "technical fault" as well. What's wrong with these people? Oh, I see it was a Metrojet official. My bad. I guess the "external factor" was that they bought a used, repaired aircraft from an external source.

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Official rejects technical fault caused Egypt plane crash
DMITRY LOVETSKY, Associated Press

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — A technical fault or pilot error could not have caused the crash of a Russian plane in Egypt that killed all 224 people on board, a top official at the airline said Monday.

Alexander Smirnov, the deputy general director of Metrojet, said the cause of the crash "could only have been an external impact on the plane" in the air.
When pressed for an explanation about what could have caused this impact, Smirnov insisted that he was not at liberty to discuss details because the investigation was ongoing.

Smirnov also said the crew did not send a distress call and they did not contact traffic controllers before the crash.

The Metrojet Airbus A321-200 crashed in the Sinai 23 minutes after taking off from the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh en route to St. Petersburg.

Russian officials say it broke up at high altitude, scattering fragments of wreckage and bodies over a wide area.
At the crash site in Egypt, emergency workers and aviation experts from Russia and Egypt swept across the barren terrain Monday, searching for more victims and examining the debris for clues as to the cause of Saturday's crash.

A Russian cargo plane brought the first bodies of Russian victims killed in the crash to St. Petersburg, a city awash in grief for its missing residents.
The government plane brought 140 bodies to St. Petersburg's Pulkovo airport, touching down in the dark. The bodies were then taken to a city morgue and a crematorium, where Russian forensic experts immediately began working to identify the victims, said Yulia Shoigu, a Russian Emergency Situations official.
___

-- (c) Associated Press 2015-11-02

[Mango Bob]

I wonder if the Malaysian Airline flight the was shot down could be factored into this.

[Chicog]

I think the Russians will show them what happen when you miss with Russia.

I remember how successful Operation Barbarossa was at the beginning and then the worm turned and they how vengeful they could be

ISIS will be begging to the UN for peace

So they convinced you fairly easily then.

[HenryB]

I think the Russians will show them what happen when you miss with Russia.

I remember how successful Operation Barbarossa was at the beginning and then the worm turned and they how vengeful they could be

ISIS will be begging to the UN for peace

So they convinced you fairly easily then.

Sorry to say I trust Putin's Russia more than EU England or USA

[Chicog]

I think the Russians will show them what happen when you miss with Russia.

I remember how successful Operation Barbarossa was at the beginning and then the worm turned and they how vengeful they could be

ISIS will be begging to the UN for peace

So they convinced you fairly easily then.

Sorry to say I trust Putin's Russia more than EU England or USA

I haven't heard Putin say this plane was brought down by terrorists.

Have you?

Who is the "them" that the Russians will show something?

Edited November 2, 2015 by Chicog

[smotherb]

“Isis didn’t come from nowhere, its weapons don’t come from nowhere. We sell vast amounts of weapons to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and a number of other places – how many of those end up in the hands of Isis? With all that money in their hands,” Jeremy Corbyn, MP Islington North told a BBC Question Time audience.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-arms-sales-to-the-middle-east-are-probably-fuelling-isis-says-jeremy-corbyn-10364998.html

I doubt the Sheikhs are passing too many weapons to an organisation whose stated aim is to bring them down.

Which isn't to say that some they've provided to the FSA and other groups haven't ended up in the hands of these lunatics.

". . . With all that money in their hands . . .” I doubt anyone passed weapons to them, they bought them.

It neatly distracts from the fact that the UK and US gave the Iraqi army all these state of the art weapons and they essentially dropped them and fled at the first sign of trouble.

So they didn't even actually have to buy a lot of the stuff.... they just picked it up.

I'll wager it wasn't 24 hours before all the weapons were picked up, but by would-be arms merchants. Weapons can also be stolen, donated, or even taken from the rightful owner's cold dead hands. However, most weapons are sold by those entrusted to hold them, and to whom do they sell them? Those same would-be arms merchants. Try researching it; e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/10/world/middleeast/10weapons.html?_r=0. I think you'll find black-market purchases account for most arms acquisitions.

[NeverSure]

Once again. The reason they know the plane came apart at altitude and speed is the wide distribution of the wreckage. The breakup had to be severe and not just a tail falling off or anything similar.

Pieces fall at different rates and travel different distances due to cross sectional density and wind resistance. Throw five fist sized rocks as far as you can, and then throw five fist sized wadded up pieces of paper as far as you can. You get the idea.

The challenge now will be to determine what caused a sudden catastrophic breakup - so sudden that the pilot didn't communicate.

Cheers.

[MaxYakov]

Once again. The reason they know the plane came apart at altitude and speed is the wide distribution of the wreckage. The breakup had to be severe and not just a tail falling off or anything similar.

Pieces fall at different rates and travel different distances due to cross sectional density and wind resistance. Throw five fist sized rocks as far as you can, and then throw five fist sized wadded up pieces of paper as far as you can. You get the idea.

The challenge now will be to determine what caused a sudden catastrophic breakup - so sudden that the pilot didn't communicate.

Cheers.

That wouldn't be nearly as challenging as fabricating the cover-up. I don't think they can try to pin this one on that video. Extreme Clear Air Turbulence, maybe?

Interesting aeronautical engineering question:

Would the plane pitch up or down if the tail (rear fuselage) suddenly separated at cruise?

P.S.: The pilot needs a functioning radio in order to communicate.

This brings to mind another question: How isolated is the flight deck from the effects of explosive decompression in the cabin (assuming the door is closed as it should have been)?

Edited November 2, 2015 by MaxYakov

[Chicog]

Once again. The reason they know the plane came apart at altitude and speed is the wide distribution of the wreckage. The breakup had to be severe and not just a tail falling off or anything similar.

Yet the significant part of the airframe fell in one piece, and the tail about 20kms away or thereabouts.

I posted the images above, take a look for yourself.

[Tywais]

Egypt: Russian delegation visits plane crash site in the Sinai

[Tywais]

Egypt: Investigators recover personal belongings from crash site

[Tywais]

Some perspective of how wide the crash site area is.

Aerial video of crash site of #7K9268