BKK in depression?

[lordblackader]

I'm in Chiang Mai, and I don't know what to say about the tourists situation here. Was in town today, and going around the moat, I hardly noticed any tourists at all. And never saw a single tour buss on the way in, in town, or on the way home.

But I have noticed that over the past 6 months the flow of local traffic (cars & pick ups) has increased tremendously. What used to take me 15 min on the PCX to go into town now takes half an hour. Or longer.

The girlfriend works as a cycle tour guide, hasn't had a tour in 5 days but it's the calm before the storm: she was flat out in the weeks up to Yi Peng then the calm now before everything goes nuts in the lead up to New Years and then it will stay busy through to Chinese New Year in February.

[Lannig]

Why do so many foreigners sound gleeful at the prospect of Thailand's economy falling into recession?

It's weird

Well, I was not making up what I wrote above and no, that doesn't make me especially happy because it means that there are people close to me who'll increasingly depend on my financial support for their living

I guess that I'm not the only one in this situation.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Lets cut out all the emotional stuff and personal opinions and look at facts. The last official yoy GDP figure we saw was of 2,9% growth, but that growth was from a low 2014 base. If you look at Q 1 2015 the GDP growth was 0,3% and in Q 2 2015 it was 0,4%. The Thai economy consist of +- 70% exports, +- 10% tourism and consumption at +-20% figure. Thailand's exports will according to the BOT forecast decrease with 1,5% in 2015. Household consumption have increased by 0,7% and 1% in the first 2 quarters of 2015, but are not growing fast enough to increase the GDP figure enough. The biggest limiting factor is that the household debt is already above 80% of GDP and with virtually no inflation there is little room for wage increases or higher household debt levels. It's also important to note that loan sharks holds a lot of house hold debt that's not included in the 80% figure. In the 2015 fiscal year the tax collections missed the budget with 5,4%, indicating the economic weakness. The effect of the drought (many farmers will only get 2 rice harvests instead of 4 in two years). Many would discount this as not important but the knock on effect of this will be felt in the supply side (fertiliser, seed, chemicals and equipment suppliers) as well as in the agro-industry side (the industries that take the raw products and process them). When farmers have less money to spend the rural towns feel it too and even cities like Udon will be suffering. A weaker agriculture will thus have a further knock down effect on the economy in the next year. On another note many of the electronics that Thailand exports are outdated technology (computer hard disks) and due to inappropriately educated workforce the country can't move into higher end manufacturing of high tech products. In Thailand less than 400 000 people pay income tax and most of the tax earned are paid by companies.

If you look at the above it's clear that the economy is not doing well and needs expert hands to get it going again. The junta wants to jump start the economy with the mega projects but lets look at the facts and figures. These projects will cost B 3 trillion (and will end at B 4 trillion plus) and will be implemented other the next 8 years at an average of B 375 billion per year. At present the governments annual budget is around the B 2,5 trillion mark. The extra B 375 billion will thus be a drop in the ocean. The other unanswered question is how much of this money will in actual fact be spend inside Thailand and how much will go to China and Japan. As these mega projects are the poster boys for growth the prospects don't look great. I will not talk about potential corruption.

As for future household expenditure growth I will not hold my breath. We are ending the low interest rate phase that have lasted more than a decade, but the chickens are coming back to roost now. The households with high debt loads will see more and more of their monthly income disappearing into debt/interest payments.

To educate a productive worker takes at least 13 years and you can add another 3 to 5 years for further training. For Thailand to turn around its economy over the longterm it must start with the correct education of its children. If you want todays children to be rice farmers, okay continue to teach them in the same way as now. If you however want to lift the country and its economy to a higher level the education system must be reformed (not more core values but real reform).

The civil service in this country has increased 3 fold since the year 2000. If these civil servants was effective (civil servants can never be productive because they produce nothing) it would have been okay, but they aren't. The problem the country is facing is that with lower economic growth tax income will slow. If the tax rate are increased it would put personal expenditure under pressure as well corporate profits. There is about a zero percent chance the junta will decrease the size of the civil service as this is their power base. The country will thus face a growth in budget deficits (government will have to borrow more money to balance the books). This in turn will have a negative impact on the exchange rate.

Its not a question of being negative its just reality. This reality can however change in the wink of an eye.

http://dupress.com/articles/asia-pacific-economic-outlook-q4-2015-thailand/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/a4b3e582-111a-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3tisjzHe5

​

[Thongkorn]

I am pleased Bangkok is in recession allegedly. I have a house just up the road in Sahmut Praken , its bustling with people, mainly Thai but it's busy.

[phantomfiddler]

According to what I hear, and I hear more than most people being a barkeep for over 30 years, this recession is all over the world and Thailand appears to be doing better than many

[Jeffkp]

Several Thai friends have told me that after Loi Krathong , many Thais are saving up for the New Year.

[Jimmpy]

It's not only the recession.

Bangkok has morphed itself into a 5 star tourist destination.

However, 5 star people are not aware of this and, generally, would not consider Thailand.4 a vacation.

[Robert24]

no recession and definitely no depression in Bangkok nor in Thailand.

[nithisa78]

The world is going through a spiritual correction. Bars are closing, that's a good thing.

Where better to get people's attention than the pocket book.

[nithisa78]

Why do so many foreigners sound gleeful at the prospect of Thailand's economy falling into recession?

It's weird

The exchange rate..

For me as well. Right now I want the baht to plummet to the 74 to 1 GBP I got ten years ago. But 15 years from now, when I am dead, or cushioned by my state pension, I want the economy to power out of recession, like it did after the 1997 crash, since my sons will be of working age. Selfish, but I've discovered here that family is everything, Something I never experienced in England.

Bravo -family is everything. Friends and other loved ones not to be discounted. When your sons prosper, others will also prosper. That's how it works.

[YeahSiam]

Why do so many foreigners sound gleeful at the prospect of Thailand's economy falling into recession?

It's weird

The exchange rate..

For me as well. Right now I want the baht to plummet to the 74 to 1 GBP I got ten years ago. But 15 years from now, when I am dead, or cushioned by my state pension, I want the economy to power out of recession, like it did after the 1997 crash, since my sons will be of working age. Selfish, but I've discovered here that family is everything, Something I never experienced in England.

And we slag off the

Thais for their 'don't

give a shit about

anyone but

themselves' attitude

[MeHere]

Most farang like to hear negative stories about Thailand because basically they don't like the locals.....especially the men.

Wait... I thought it was the other way around!!

[soistalker]

So will B1000/B2000 be reduced to B500/B1000 this holiday season? Ho Ho Ho.

Edited December 8, 2015 by soistalker

[cyberfarang]

I think where the bars are concerned they have got greedy and pricing themselves out of business.

Sex pats used to visit Thailand for cheap booze and cheap women but it`s not so cheap anymore, the general Thai consensus being tourists pay more in their own countries so they should pay more in Thailand, the result being the tourists are going elsewhere for their jollies.

[YeahSiam]

I think where the bars are concerned they have got greedy and pricing themselves out of business.

Sex pats used to visit Thailand for cheap booze and cheap women but it`s not so cheap anymore, the general Thai consensus being tourists pay more in their own countries so they should pay more in Thailand, the result being the tourists are going elsewhere for their jollies.

And if you're really quiet,

I'm sure you can hear

the cries of anguish at

the TAT now that

whoremongers are going

elsewhere.

[cyberfarang]

I think where the bars are concerned they have got greedy and pricing themselves out of business.

Sex pats used to visit Thailand for cheap booze and cheap women but it`s not so cheap anymore, the general Thai consensus being tourists pay more in their own countries so they should pay more in Thailand, the result being the tourists are going elsewhere for their jollies.

And if you're really quiet,

I'm sure you can hear

the cries of anguish at

the TAT now that

whoremongers are going

elsewhere.

I am not a bar person myself, but I think they play a big part in Thailand tourism. How much revenue do you think the bars and clubs in Pattaya bring into the country each year? Closing the bars down in Pattaya and replacing them with more family friendly attractions would not compensate for the amounts the bars bring in. I think what is happening in Chiang Mai is a good example.

I was always lead to understand that the attractions in Thailand are the tourist spots in the daytime and the bars at night. Like it or not, that`s the reality.

Edited December 9, 2015 by cyberfarang

[micmichd]

Guess medical services will improve, they are really bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly.

[micmichd]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

[cyberfarang]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

Do you mean to increase the tourist numbers, they should replace the sex pats with old geriatrics in need of medical care that are too knackered to gain benefit from the services the bars have to offer?

[SoiBiker]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

Do you mean to increase the tourist numbers, they should replace the sex pats with old geriatrics in need of medical care that are too knackered to gain benefit from the services the bars have to offer?

I think the passing of time is already taking care of that one.

[micmichd]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

Do you mean to increase the tourist numbers, they should replace the sex pats with old geriatrics in need of medical care that are too knackered to gain benefit from the services the bars have to offer?

It doesn't matter what I want.

Fact is that sexpats have less money to spend while the old farts are comparably rich. In Europe, more and more whores make their money in geriatric institutions. Don't underestimate the medical or paramedical skills of professional sex workers. Guess many could be nurses as well if they wouldn't be denigrated.

[cyberfarang]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

Do you mean to increase the tourist numbers, they should replace the sex pats with old geriatrics in need of medical care that are too knackered to gain benefit from the services the bars have to offer?

It doesn't matter what I want.

Fact is that sexpats have less money to spend while the old farts are comparably rich. In Europe, more and more whores make their money in geriatric institutions. Don't underestimate the medical or paramedical skills of professional sex workers. Guess many could be nurses as well if they wouldn't be denigrated.

I don`t think that is the case. This is the Thai assumption that all old Farlangs are rich, but the fact is many of us are not rich and living on budgets. I`m an old fart, not a total geriatric yet but steadily getting there, and I`m not rich. It`s just that my money goes further in Thailand then it would in the UK. In the UK I would be regarded as a financially challenged pensioner and guess so would the majority of us. Not all of us have reached the decrepit stage yet. Some of us are still fit enough to be sexpats on occasions, that is more fun then being bed bathed by young nurses in an old people`s home.

[micmichd]

In Germany there are still quite a few pensioners that get more than 1,200 EUR per month. And that is enough to stay in Thailand forever if you marry a Thai.

Certainly sex is not so much fun anymore when you get older, and maybe you won't have sex anymore one day. But quite a few pensioners keep themselves in a good shape. And in fact some of the old pensioners that already suffer from done disease have a Thai lady to lace up their shoes or swap catheters. Some of them are ex bar or massage girls. So, my ideas are not that far-fetched.

[Nomyai]

Guess medical services will improve, they are bad and expensive in the West. Demographic changes will increase the demand for good and affordable medical care, especially for the elderly. The Swiss model of caretaking for the elderly could be extended.

Also, research on social, medical and ecological issues could be done. Much is not really known in the West, or not properly applied, due to Western paradigmatic biases. Alzheimer's disease is just one example.

Arts and music might get more important in a future world, and Thailand could become a hub for multicultural arts.

Do you mean to increase the tourist numbers, they should replace the sex pats with old geriatrics in need of medical care that are too knackered to gain benefit from the services the bars have to offer?

It doesn't matter what I want.

Fact is that sexpats have less money to spend while the old farts are comparably rich. In Europe, more and more whores make their money in geriatric institutions. Don't underestimate the medical or paramedical skills of professional sex workers. Guess many could be nurses as well if they wouldn't be denigrated.

Sexpats are the old farts. Same same same!

[taony]

I think part of it is we know the Thais won't fix anything until disaster strikes. So there is hope for one big cock up that will shake the whole place up and things can finally start to improve. Its a dream, but what is life without hope.

[Alration]

Lets cut out all the emotional stuff and personal opinions and look at facts. The last official yoy GDP figure we saw was of 2,9% growth, but that growth was from a low 2014 base. If you look at Q 1 2015 the GDP growth was 0,3% and in Q 2 2015 it was 0,4%. The Thai economy consist of +- 70% exports, +- 10% tourism and consumption at +-20% figure. Thailand's exports will according to the BOT forecast decrease with 1,5% in 2015. Household consumption have increased by 0,7% and 1% in the first 2 quarters of 2015, but are not growing fast enough to increase the GDP figure enough. The biggest limiting factor is that the household debt is already above 80% of GDP and with virtually no inflation there is little room for wage increases or higher household debt levels. It's also important to note that loan sharks holds a lot of house hold debt that's not included in the 80% figure. In the 2015 fiscal year the tax collections missed the budget with 5,4%, indicating the economic weakness. The effect of the drought (many farmers will only get 2 rice harvests instead of 4 in two years). Many would discount this as not important but the knock on effect of this will be felt in the supply side (fertiliser, seed, chemicals and equipment suppliers) as well as in the agro-industry side (the industries that take the raw products and process them). When farmers have less money to spend the rural towns feel it too and even cities like Udon will be suffering. A weaker agriculture will thus have a further knock down effect on the economy in the next year. On another note many of the electronics that Thailand exports are outdated technology (computer hard disks) and due to inappropriately educated workforce the country can't move into higher end manufacturing of high tech products. In Thailand less than 400 000 people pay income tax and most of the tax earned are paid by companies.

If you look at the above it's clear that the economy is not doing well and needs expert hands to get it going again. The junta wants to jump start the economy with the mega projects but lets look at the facts and figures. These projects will cost B 3 trillion (and will end at B 4 trillion plus) and will be implemented other the next 8 years at an average of B 375 billion per year. At present the governments annual budget is around the B 2,5 trillion mark. The extra B 375 billion will thus be a drop in the ocean. The other unanswered question is how much of this money will in actual fact be spend inside Thailand and how much will go to China and Japan. As these mega projects are the poster boys for growth the prospects don't look great. I will not talk about potential corruption.

As for future household expenditure growth I will not hold my breath. We are ending the low interest rate phase that have lasted more than a decade, but the chickens are coming back to roost now. The households with high debt loads will see more and more of their monthly income disappearing into debt/interest payments.

To educate a productive worker takes at least 13 years and you can add another 3 to 5 years for further training. For Thailand to turn around its economy over the longterm it must start with the correct education of its children. If you want todays children to be rice farmers, okay continue to teach them in the same way as now. If you however want to lift the country and its economy to a higher level the education system must be reformed (not more core values but real reform).

The civil service in this country has increased 3 fold since the year 2000. If these civil servants was effective (civil servants can never be productive because they produce nothing) it would have been okay, but they aren't. The problem the country is facing is that with lower economic growth tax income will slow. If the tax rate are increased it would put personal expenditure under pressure as well corporate profits. There is about a zero percent chance the junta will decrease the size of the civil service as this is their power base. The country will thus face a growth in budget deficits (government will have to borrow more money to balance the books). This in turn will have a negative impact on the exchange rate.

Its not a question of being negative its just reality. This reality can however change in the wink of an eye.

http://dupress.com/articles/asia-pacific-economic-outlook-q4-2015-thailand/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/a4b3e582-111a-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3tisjzHe5

​

Let's not.

I wonder if anyone read that?

[GarryP]

Lets cut out all the emotional stuff and personal opinions and look at facts. The last official yoy GDP figure we saw was of 2,9% growth, but that growth was from a low 2014 base. If you look at Q 1 2015 the GDP growth was 0,3% and in Q 2 2015 it was 0,4%. The Thai economy consist of +- 70% exports, +- 10% tourism and consumption at +-20% figure. Thailand's exports will according to the BOT forecast decrease with 1,5% in 2015. Household consumption have increased by 0,7% and 1% in the first 2 quarters of 2015, but are not growing fast enough to increase the GDP figure enough. The biggest limiting factor is that the household debt is already above 80% of GDP and with virtually no inflation there is little room for wage increases or higher household debt levels. It's also important to note that loan sharks holds a lot of house hold debt that's not included in the 80% figure. In the 2015 fiscal year the tax collections missed the budget with 5,4%, indicating the economic weakness. The effect of the drought (many farmers will only get 2 rice harvests instead of 4 in two years). Many would discount this as not important but the knock on effect of this will be felt in the supply side (fertiliser, seed, chemicals and equipment suppliers) as well as in the agro-industry side (the industries that take the raw products and process them). When farmers have less money to spend the rural towns feel it too and even cities like Udon will be suffering. A weaker agriculture will thus have a further knock down effect on the economy in the next year. On another note many of the electronics that Thailand exports are outdated technology (computer hard disks) and due to inappropriately educated workforce the country can't move into higher end manufacturing of high tech products. In Thailand less than 400 000 people pay income tax and most of the tax earned are paid by companies.

If you look at the above it's clear that the economy is not doing well and needs expert hands to get it going again. The junta wants to jump start the economy with the mega projects but lets look at the facts and figures. These projects will cost B 3 trillion (and will end at B 4 trillion plus) and will be implemented other the next 8 years at an average of B 375 billion per year. At present the governments annual budget is around the B 2,5 trillion mark. The extra B 375 billion will thus be a drop in the ocean. The other unanswered question is how much of this money will in actual fact be spend inside Thailand and how much will go to China and Japan. As these mega projects are the poster boys for growth the prospects don't look great. I will not talk about potential corruption.

As for future household expenditure growth I will not hold my breath. We are ending the low interest rate phase that have lasted more than a decade, but the chickens are coming back to roost now. The households with high debt loads will see more and more of their monthly income disappearing into debt/interest payments.

To educate a productive worker takes at least 13 years and you can add another 3 to 5 years for further training. For Thailand to turn around its economy over the longterm it must start with the correct education of its children. If you want todays children to be rice farmers, okay continue to teach them in the same way as now. If you however want to lift the country and its economy to a higher level the education system must be reformed (not more core values but real reform).

The civil service in this country has increased 3 fold since the year 2000. If these civil servants was effective (civil servants can never be productive because they produce nothing) it would have been okay, but they aren't. The problem the country is facing is that with lower economic growth tax income will slow. If the tax rate are increased it would put personal expenditure under pressure as well corporate profits. There is about a zero percent chance the junta will decrease the size of the civil service as this is their power base. The country will thus face a growth in budget deficits (government will have to borrow more money to balance the books). This in turn will have a negative impact on the exchange rate.

Its not a question of being negative its just reality. This reality can however change in the wink of an eye.

http://dupress.com/articles/asia-pacific-economic-outlook-q4-2015-thailand/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/a4b3e582-111a-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3tisjzHe5

​

Let's not.

I wonder if anyone read that?

I did. Having lived here for more than 30 years and no plans to leave, I think it important to consider what was written if you are considering saving for a decent future.

[JLCrab]

Maybe posted elsewhere but not this topic:

Thai Economy and Spirits Are Sagging -- 30NOV2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/world/asia/thailand-economy-tourism.html

Edited December 16, 2015 by JLCrab

[thaiduncankk]

In Germany there are still quite a few pensioners that get more than 1,200 EUR per month. And that is enough to stay in Thailand forever if you marry a Thai.

If you had said 'if you DO NOT marry a Thai', you would have been spot on.

[smokie36]

In Germany there are still quite a few pensioners that get more than 1,200 EUR per month. And that is enough to stay in Thailand forever if you marry a Thai.

If you had said 'if you DO NOT marry a Thai', you would have been spot on.

If you can't save 800k Baht by the time you are ready to retire then Thailand is not really where you should be.