Ageing to sap working-age population
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- By 2040, the graying of the population could shrink the number of working-age adults by more than 15 per cent in South Korea and more than 10 per cent in China, Thailand and Japan, according to a new World Bank report.

The report "Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific" finds that in China alone, that would translate into a net loss of 90 million workers.

Across East Asia and Pacific, 211 million people age 65 and over, accounting for 36 per cent of the global elderly population.

World Bank noted that the rapid pace and sheer scale of aging in East Asia raises policy challenges, economic and fiscal pressures, and social risks. Without reforms, for example, pension spending in the region is projected to increase by eight to 10 per cent of gross domestic product by 2070.

Meanwhile, most East Asian health systems aren't prepared for age-related spending, as cancer, heart disease, diabetes and other chronic illnesses could account for 85 per cent of all disease burdens by 2030. In addition, today's older population is less likely than previous generations to have adequate family support.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Ageing-to-sap-working-age-population-30274574.html

-- The Nation 2015-12-09

I would think the lau khao and road crashes will take their toll before most are old enough to retire . Plus, you can't use gray hair as a measurement of age, since driving on Thai roads would scare the s___ out of anyone and gray them prematurely.

Don't know about the other countries, but China's one child policy probably isn't helping.....NOT that Pattaya could use any more Chinese, just saying....

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India has a similar population as China, they just don't go everywhere in swarms.

Now, if we could only get them to bathe.....ah well off topic. Sorry.

Edited December 9, 201510 yr by jaywalker

working age, doesn't mean that they really work

This is a ticking time-bomb facing most countries, however Thailand's culture may significantly affect how well it will address the issue.

Thai society had tended to provide quite a high level of at-home care for aged family members (thus removing this burden from the state). However, there must come a time when this can no longer be sustained, especially as more aged people will be living longer and needing special care longer, while fewer younger people will be available to provide the care (and, importantly, continue to fund it)! The social problem of aged care is already apparent in rural areas around the world, as younger family members have tended to move to the cities to find work thus breaking up traditional family carer roles and placing this task onto the state.

An interesting article on sustainable pension systems is at https://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/studies/news_2014-04-01.html. Unfortunately, the news for Thailand is quite gloomy!

In a recent The Nation article http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thailand-advised-to-raise-retirement-age-30273718.html, Thailand was told what it needed to do (by a farang woman)!

In this article, it was noted that, if the poverty rate among the elderly becomes acute, the state may need to provide welfare assistance. This is where Thai culture will have a big impact, as historically, more significance was placed on the poor receiving charity from individuals in high places or private businesses (thus enhancing their prestige) rather than through a proper collective welfare system.

One has to question where the extra state revenue is going to come from to pay for the increased age-related spending mentioned in this post. It’s also going to be interesting to see how many Thai workers not covered by state pension funds and private provident funds have the foresight or the means to sign up for the National Savings Fund.

So, with yet another serious challenge facing the country into the future, it’s really hard to see the people being happy anytime soon.

Considering that the old-age pension here is ฿500 / month and that the very sick old people are sent home to die coupled to the fact that a large percentage of working age don't actually work .... I can't imagine much changing in Thailand.

yeah, and yet again another one sided and dreary Thai media article where any reference to the PI is always just simply left out... even when it's about the region in general or the AEC.... where this "aging problem" ain't much of a problem ***at all***. from which the daily stories are still of resilience even against the China slowdown story and in Mindanao for instance the growth rate recently hit 9%, which is blazing. but perhaps sustainable. but also maybe a story that is just not welcome even for English articles because it has a Thai audience as well. it's real obvious.

Edited December 9, 201510 yr by maewang99

They will never grow old from working. They must be the laziest in the world.

'Greying population needs to be addressed'
Erich Parpart
The Nation

World Bank warns of rising burden on state finances and setbacks to productivity

BANGKOK: -- Thailand and other countries in East Asia and Pacific are facing fiscal pressure due to an increasingly 'greying' population, and these nations should act now to avoid a rising burden on state finances and obstacles to productivity and economic prosperity, according to a new report by the World Bank.

The number of Thai working-age adults is estimated to shrink by more than 10 per cent between 2010 and 2040 due to the growing ageing population, the bank said in its "Live Long and Prosper: Ageing in East Asia and Pacific" report, which was released yesterday.

The predicted rate of decline is a little bit higher than that of China, while the country with the most rapidly ageing pace and facing the most fiscal risk is Vietnam.

Philip O'Keefe, lead author of the report, described the challenges to economic growth, the labour market and budgets from ageing in East Asia as "very real", but the public policy and behavioural responses were not known - and that was where the government, employers and citizens could make a difference.

"Thailand is amongst the middle-income countries with the more advanced ages in the region, and it is on the transition from an ageing to an aged society.

"The pace is extremely rapid when compared to most parts of the world. Thailand is one of the countries in the region facing the fastest ageing pace, and is already one of the more aged countries," he said.

"Government alone cannot address all these issues, as it requires both policy change and behav-|ioural change across society," he stressed.

"The biggest challenge is fiscal and public spending pressures from the pension system, healthcare delivery system and long-term care, which does not exist in any formal way in many parts of the East Asia region," he added.

Sudhir Shetty, World Bank chief economist for East Asia and Pacific, said: "The middle-income nations of East Asia such as China, Vietnam and Thailand are already ageing quickly and they face some of the most pressing challenges in managing ageing."

World Bank economists recommend increasing female labour-force participation, a greater state role in subsidising child care, extending the working life of people, and increasing the level of immigration from 'younger' countries as some of the policy responses to mitigate the effects of ageing on a country's productivity and output.

"East Asia is poised to age faster than any other region in history, with most middle-income countries in this region moving from a relatively young society to a relatively old one in a period of 20-25 years, which is a transition that took 50-100 years in most of the rich countries in the world," Shetty said.

He explained that the rapid pace of ageing in East Asia was a product of a very rapid pace of development in most of the region, as a result of which, by 2060, one in five of the 'oldest' countries in the world will be from this region - compared to one in 25 in 2010.

The ageing risk to growth is manageable in East Asia, but the fiscal risk is dangerous, O'Keefe said, adding that in developing East Asia the biggest concern is pensions.

By 2070, the increase in pension spending in developing East Asia could reach anywhere between 5 and 10 per cent of the region's gross domestic product without pension reform, and reform needs to start now before ageing advances further, he stressed.

He said increasing women's participation in the workforce would have the biggest impact on mitigating an ageing society's impact on productivity and a declining working population.

This can be encouraged by child-care policies, while conducting pension, tax and labour-market reforms to encourage people to work longer is also another way to mitigate the ageing effects on a country's fiscal situation, he suggested.

O'Keefe explained that people living in urban areas were starting to withdraw from work and retire too early in China, Vietnam and Thailand due to receiving a pension too early, which was a luxury that no society could afford as it aged.

Direct stimulation of a nation's fertility, such as baby bonuses and all kinds of direct financial and incentives for people to have babies, has been unsuccessful in many countries that have tried it, he added.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Greying-population-needs-to-be-addressed-30274613.html


-- The Nation 2015-12-10

leave it long enough, mai pen rai, and the problem will solve itself.

The reduction of the working population by 10% would be a reduction in respect of the percentage of the total population, not base numbers. Poorly written.

The same all over the western world as well, nothing new in this.

Anything coming from the world bank can safely be ignored. Pure manipulation is their main agenda!

With a xenophobic citizenship and government there is little hope for Thailand to forestall or mitigate an ageing population. Pew population studies have shown that IMMIGRATION has one of the greatest impacts on slowing the ageing of a nation.

For example, from 1960 to 2005 immigrants and their descendants accounted for 51% of the increase in the USA population. From 2005 to 2050, immigrants and their descendants are projected to contribute 82% of the total increase in the USA population.

The rate of immigration is affected by the host nation's economic health and quality of freedom. So even if the Thai people welcomed unrestricted immigration, significant immigration into Thailand is not likely to happen any time soon.

WORK IS A FOUR LETTER WORD TO THAIS

that is all common sense. So not anything new at all.

It would be more important to focus the government on to an urgent necessary pension fund. The generation contract will not work because Asian families won't have as much kids as before.

The reduction of the working population by 10% would be a reduction in respect of the percentage of the total population, not base numbers. Poorly written.

The same all over the western world as well, nothing new in this.

Births are dropping below replacement levels. The economy is 70% consumer spending. Milleniums do not want to buy overpriced houses and new self driving cars and other high ticket items because well frankly their wages are not high enough and their future seems shaky at best. I think someone did the math on how many jobs they will hold in their lifetime and its staggering. They will live like nomads in a fast changing world of continuous re-education. What does the future hold well you do the math.

WORK IS A FOUR LETTER WORD TO THAIS

Do they suffer from the "Wimpy" syndrome??

that is all common sense. So not anything new at all.

It would be more important to focus the government on to an urgent necessary pension fund. The generation contract will not work because Asian families won't have as much kids as before.

Agreed and the retired population did pay their dues much heavier ones than the present population is willing to pay. Cancel the subs, bullet to Bejing, new police guns and missiles. Dump all this crap and pay the retired people a decent pension which they so justly deserve. Young people are struggling here today and the Thai informal pension plan is drying up.

Many Thais change jobs about twice a year, usually because they are crap at what they do or fail there probation periods...
Younger Thais that are educated are not thinking about families and kids so quickly, and those that are not and from NE villages probably are,

Its probably actually a good thing.... the Banks dont like it because they lose, but as a society its an improvement.

Edited December 10, 201510 yr by djlest

WORK IS A FOUR LETTER WORD TO THAIS

It's a four letter word to anybody who can spell

that is all common sense. So not anything new at all.

It would be more important to focus the government on to an urgent necessary pension fund. The generation contract will not work because Asian families won't have as much kids as before.

Ah !! PENSION FUND, the possible scams must set some politicians eyes gleaming.

that is all common sense. So not anything new at all.

It would be more important to focus the government on to an urgent necessary pension fund. The generation contract will not work because Asian families won't have as much kids as before.

Agreed and the retired population did pay their dues much heavier ones than the present population is willing to pay. Cancel the subs, bullet to Bejing, new police guns and missiles. Dump all this crap and pay the retired people a decent pension which they so justly deserve. Young people are struggling here today and the Thai informal pension plan is drying up.

That's what I meant

News flash! China is approving a 2 child family now, and maybe will amend it to a 3 child family in a few

years as they do need working class to continue in the future. In the rest of Asia and around the world I

can see a 3 to 5 child family as a way to continue the working population. In some countries and cultures,

it seems that an 8 to 10 child standard still exists.

I sure do feel sorry for the women who have to have that many children though.

Now what was that old movie called? Salient Green perhaps?

Stargrazer9889

Just so long as it isn't Logan's Run!