Saudis struggle with supremacy crisis

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Saudis struggle with supremacy crisis



"It could be years before this strategy pays off, the kingdom facing terrible financial, political and social difficulties."

PARIS: -- The tension in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have reached new heights, amid violent protests and diplomatic rifts. We study the deepening crisis with special coverage and expert analysis from Brussels, Dubai and Paris.

The regional power struggle in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran has seen sectarian protests and violence take on a new dimension. Perennial rivals Tehran and Riyad have moved into a more vigorous phase of opposition with the execution on Saturday by the Saudi Sunni government of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, inflaming already-entrenched divisions.

The Shia make up roughly 10-15% of all Muslims. Iran has the largest Shia population, but Shia are also constitute the majority in Iraq and Bahrain, and there are sizable Shia communities in Kuwait, Yemen, Lebanon and Qatar.

The executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr had called for the Saudi royal family to be overthrown, although some analysts say he took care not to call for violence. Eliminating him shows the increasingly hard-line Saudi approach to dissent at home and towards the regional influence of Iran.

Just as Iran is the leading country for Shia Muslims, so is Saudi Arabia the foremost power for Sunnis, who also form the majority in Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.

As America’s closest Arab ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia enjoys massive US military support, and Riyadh has long influenced American foreign policy.

The balance of influences has recently shifted, however, with the Iranian nuclear deal finally reached with the major powers last July. With sanctions against Tehran easing, the Saudis fear it will use its unfrozen assets and new business opportunities to support Shiite rebel groups in the region to destabilize Sunni-led governments, and pursue expansionary objectives. Iran is already giving military support to the Shiite militias in Iraq, to Syrian president Bashar al Assad and to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yemen has become the most glaring example of a proxy war between the Saudi kingdom and Iran.

Along with the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia is backing Sunni rebel groups fighting against Syria’s Assad. Riyadh has also been controversially accused of secretly funding ISIL. The Nimr execution threatens to more deeply envenom the region’s conflict.

Laurence Alexandrowicz talked to Gilles Kepel, an expert on Islam and the Arab world, asking what he thinks of the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Gilles Kepel, author of ‘Terreur dans l’Hexagone, genèse du jihad français’: “Well, 47 executions in Saoudi Arabia is a lot; 43 of those executed were Sunni radical opponents linked either to al Qaeda or to ISIL, Daesh, which of course because of their tribal links are far more dangerous for Saudi power than the Shiite minority is. To help make the execution of all those Sunni radicals more acceptable, somewhat to smooth things over, the Saudi government made sure that only a few Shiites were executed. There’s the impression that Saudi Arabia is sort of caught between a rock and a hard place. There is the situation inside the country and the obligation to fight Sunni Islamist extremism, which some Saudi businessmen have financed, the same who financed al Qaeda and Daesh and who are turning against them today. At the same time they are facing Iran, which wants a dominant position in the Gulf. Add to this the price of oil now below 40 dollars a barrel, which seriously throws the Saudi budget off balance. All that compounds the demands on them, especially among all the Saudis who have been kept well clear of the succession of power the kingdom has just been through.”

euronews: “Can the oil price problem create a backlash for the rest of the world, economically?”

Kepel: “The Saudis’ problem is that they triggered the fall in the price of oil by raising production. Why? Because they wanted to make the US back down, because the American marketing of shale oil today is a threat to Saudi supremacy, the supremacy of Middle Eastern oil. With prices that low, US shale producers couldn’t compete, and so the Saudis can come out on top of the market. The problem is the time this takes. It could be months, it could be years before this strategy pays off, and in the meantime the kingdom will have to face terrible financial, political and social difficulties.”

euronews: “We know that the two regional powers are also clashing with each other, indirectly, in Syria and Yemen. What consequences will there be from those two wars?”

Kepel: “Several powers are very concerned about that. Russia, which is an oil monarchy today… The fall in oil price is a major worry for the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. He has offered to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is extraordinary in itself. It means that the Americans can’t do it. That also is a way to show that President Obama’s United States is in a way out of the race in the Middle East region.”

euronews: “…leaving the door to Daesh wide open?”

Kepel: “The Saudi-Iranian diplomatic crisis concerns both countries, but also the region, since a crisis this intense could make it impossible for the coalition against Daesh to work.”


-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-01-05

[oneday]

What an opportunity for the CIA or any other western intelligence service.

Covertly agitate the tensions between these two power houses and let them wipe each other out.

[godden]

Sick of reading about muslims and their problems and the problems they cause.

[craigt3365]

What an opportunity for the CIA or any other western intelligence service.

Covertly agitate the tensions between these two power houses and let them wipe each other out.

Ridiculous. Western powers want peace as it bring economic prosperity. I.E. money into their pockets. War in the ME wouldn't do this.

[Ulic]

Sunni vs. Shia I have really no idea of a significant difference between the two. Just one group of religious thugs versus another. Iran complaining about executions in Saudi when Iran executed more than a thousand last year. So the pot calls the kettle black. The US lines up with Saudi as Iran fell out of favor when they deposed the despotic Shah than was installed by the USA and Britain. I shake my head. The west should step back. Stop arming both sides and let the Middle East have at it I say. No UN no nothing.

[ToS2014]

Sunni vs. Shia I have really no idea of a significant difference between the two. Just one group of religious thugs versus another. Iran complaining about executions in Saudi when Iran executed more than a thousand last year. So the pot calls the kettle black. The US lines up with Saudi as Iran fell out of favor when they deposed the despotic Shah than was installed by the USA and Britain. I shake my head. The west should step back. Stop arming both sides and let the Middle East have at it I say. No UN no nothing.

I agree; however, the problem is a) Israel and oil. If a war did break out between or in the ME oil prices would affect the entire globe.

[arjunadawn]

..."the problem (between sunni and shia) is a) Israel" is a contender for the most foolish thing I have read on TV. This problem predates Israel by 1,350 years.

This guy was begging to be a martyr. This guy is as stupid as the House of Saud is corrupt. Clearly he was calling for deaths to the royal house under the guise of the "Angel of Death" doing the killing. He was masking his earthly will/intention in the talk of likely divine judgement. Of course he was instigating civil war. This is treason, sedition, rebellion, insurgency, etc. Regrettably, the Angel of Death did not hear him. Pity. It would have been nice to see them all leave this world.

[ggt]

Sick of reading about muslims and their problems and the problems they cause.

Amen! Unfortunately, the war the Muslims are waging against the entire world is only going to get worse because of a serious lack of quality leadership in the non-Muslim countries today...

We are tackling climate change though...so when the Muslim take over...they will have a better climate to behead infidels...

[chilli42]

Controlling the price of oil, what rubbish. The price of oil is controlled by the market. If the price is too high, as it was at $100 a barrel then alternate oil sources come on line and existing producers produce more to grab the cash. Nobody is going to cut off the oil supply. Even ISIS with their old wells and delapidatd equipment sells as much as the can possibly produce to anyone who wants it. It's all just an excuse to wage the business of war. Better we all step out of this and let them sort their own problems out. Oil will flow no matter how battered the players.