GDP growth forecast this year at 3-3.5%



BANGKOK: -- Increased government spending from mega projects, and economic stimulus packages are expected to drive the country's growth to 3-3.5 percent this year, the private sector says.

The figures were assessed and disclosed at the joint press conference held by the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) yesterday.

Comprising of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Thai Bankers Association, and the Federation of Thai Industries, they believed the economic outlook for the country in 2016 will be between 3-3.5 %.

Main driving force behind the projected growth are expected increased in government spendings on major mega projects and the continued growth in the country’s tourism sector.

JSCCIB said tourism will continue to enjoy continued growth from 2015 which saw almost 30 million foreign tourists.

This was despite the dramatic downturn in the Chinese economy which inadvertently contributes to Thailand’s tourism growth as Chinese tourists now prefer to travel to closer destinations.

This is also helped in no small measure by the fact that Thailand still remains the destination of choice for Chinese tourists.

For export outlook, they estimated no less than 2% growth primarily from exports to Asian neighbors such as Cambodia, Laos Myanmar and Vietnam.

But they cautioned that the global economic outlook, China’s GDP, the country’s drought situation as well the increase in terrorism and currency exchange volatility remains a major concern as any of these will directly impact exports.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/gdp-growth-forecast-this-year-at-3-3-5


-- Thai PBS 2016-01-06

"they cautioned that the global economic outlook, Chinas GDP, the countrys drought situation as well the increase in terrorism and currency exchange volatility remains a major concern as any of these will directly impact exports."

And they still dream of an economic upturn?

More like a wish than a reasoned prediction.

They are privately worried.

Chinese trash tourists will evaporate under domestic China slowing .

They know that.

The sub continent might feed them a few.

But the low season this year should put many businesses to the sword...that only just survived last years.

Rebellion in the breeze .

Watch for "" farang come back "" on TAT billboards and 60 day stamps in entry

Edited January 6, 201610 yr by Plutojames88

Kasik Research (2016-01-05)

"In 2016, the research center estimates that economic activity will gradually improve and the overall economy will expand by 3 percent. The economy is likely to show clear signs of recovery in the second half of the year if the government pushes forward investment projects as planned and if commodity prices in the world market do not decline."

Some might big IF's. Thailand will be fortunate to match 2015 growth rate of 2.8% in 2016.

The main driving force would be optimism.

There will another story tomorrow stating 4-5% why do they bother printing this garbage? The various govt. departments are just setting themselves up for failure with their fictional predictions.

JSCCIB said tourism will continue to enjoy continued growth from 2015 which saw almost 30 million foreign tourists.

So 30 million wasn't reached in 2015... I thought there was a gift for the first passenger to get to the 30 million mark at swampy?

This is wishful thinking .I predict negative growth this year. Mark my words

Serious economic problems coming.

One thing I have noticed is Thais do not take into consideration Political climate when giving estimates

The World Bank seems to think differently.

Be lucky if it is 2.2%

3 to 3.5% is still considered low growth for an emerging economy such as Thailand while considered good growth for a developed economy such as the US/EU.

Here's my personal forecast. In March the 3-3.5% growth target will be reduced to 2-2.5% growth, citing unexpected lack of growth in the Chinese market. In July the target will be reduced to 1.9% citing unforeseen declines in exports. In October the forecast will be reduced to 1.3% growth citing unforeseen problem in the European market; November's forecast reduced to 0.8% citing unexpected strength in the Thai baht which has fallen to 35 vs the USD, and December's will be reduced to 0.1% citing the tremendous success of government policies. In Feb 2017 the actual result will be seen to be growth of 0.01% but everybody's eyes will be on the forecast for 2017 which will be calling for growth in the range of 4-4.5% for the year.

The UK would chew it's proverbial arm off for a 3.5% growth in GDP right now.

The blind leading the blind !

With the Thai economic and tourist forecasters track record...well...I would bet against whatever they say...but this is Thailand where betting is against the law...

all figures showed a downturn but the govt. still hopes? Hope dies last. They need to see a doctor for some remedies...

Can we take this to the bank or mark it on our December 2016 calendar and laugh like hell at the end of the year. I am doing the latter.

Here's my personal forecast. In March the 3-3.5% growth target will be reduced to 2-2.5% growth, citing unexpected lack of growth in the Chinese market. In July the target will be reduced to 1.9% citing unforeseen declines in exports. In October the forecast will be reduced to 1.3% growth citing unforeseen problem in the European market; November's forecast reduced to 0.8% citing unexpected strength in the Thai baht which has fallen to 35 vs the USD, and December's will be reduced to 0.1% citing the tremendous success of government policies. In Feb 2017 the actual result will be seen to be growth of 0.01% but everybody's eyes will be on the forecast for 2017 which will be calling for growth in the range of 4-4.5% for the year.

True....it's all about face.

I once tried showing a Thai friend the origins of cloud seeding and the inventors.

There it was on an historical web page.

"" Farang lies""...she said..insisting a certain Thai identity dreamed it up.

Meanwhile the North Korean guy was attributed five hole in ones on a then web page .

She felt more at ease believing this.

Thais like keeping face .

Recently in Udon two thai boxers lost a TV bout boxing match we were watching with several male Thais ( before we fly back to Bangkok)

Both victories against them were by westerners .

First fight went one round and the Thai cut his eye .

It was a nasty Brit.

The next fight all hoping to extract revenge at my cheering looked at me with daggers as a slick black fighter from America toyed with the Thai until he was so hurt and tied in round three , he then unleashed a barrage that left the Thai unconscious .

I felt uneasy and was sure were it not for being in the confines of the brothers house ( my partners brother) these Thais would have turned on me.

Loosing face with a farang present to two fights and me gloating really infuriated these Thais .

I mean if looks could kill.

The brother was a cop ( thank Christ)

They are not going to say the economy is shot.

Like above writer said tales will not only be digested but in some self delusional way believed .

.

Thats what makes the place tick

Edited January 6, 201610 yr by Plutojames88

The World Bank are predicting 2.0% for 2016 but I'm sure that if the Junta try very hard and stay on their current course they shoul be able to get it down to 1.5%.

There is not going to be any growth in Thailand this year.

I am bookmarking this thread as I am pretty confident about my statement.

Will post my bragging rights in a year.

China has the flue, not just a cold

I echo the rest, GDP is going down and the global trend is down,Thailand isnt bucking that.

The World Bank seems to think differently.

Indeed. 'Gloomy' and 'Outlook for Thai Economy' were the words they used.

This thread says

"Comprising of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Thai Bankers Association, and the Federation of Thai Industries, they believed the economic outlook for the country in 2016 will be between 3-3.5 %."

But there is another headlined saying

"Deputy PM Somkid: Thai economy will grow by 2.8% - 3% in 2016"

Who to believe?

I think they just pull these figures out of the air.

I reckon In the region of -20% - +20% myself

They have been drinking wine with 8%