Financial institution forecasts 3.2% economic growth for Thailand this year

BANGKOK, 20 January 2016 (NNT) - The Krungsri Asset Management company has predicted that the Thai economy will expand by 3.2% this year and the stock index will stand at 1,432 points.

Acting chef investment officer of Kringsri Asset Management Supaporn Leenabanchong said tourism, people’s spending and investment by the government would help the Thai economy grow by 3.2% in 2016. However, there were still negative factors which might affect the growth estimate, including the Chinese economic slowdown as well as decreasing prices of commodities and agricultural products, said Ms.Supaporn.

As for the Thai stock market, Ms.Supaporn said short-term capital outflow was likely and held a positive outlook for investment in the stock market. She expressed her belief that inflow of foreign capital would go back to Thailand when investment by the government solidified at the end of the first quarter to the second quarter.

Performance of listed companies had a tendency to continuously increase with a profit growth projection of 10%, said Ms.Supaporn. She also predicted that the government would maintain the benchmark interest rate at 1.50% throughout the year since this rate was sufficiently supportive of an economic recovery.


-- NNT 2016-01-20

Forecast 3.2%, a figure plucked out of thin air, or in this case hot air, or more likely trying to please the junta to hide how bad the economy really is being mismanaged.

Forecast 3.2%, a figure plucked out of thin air, or in this case hot air, or more likely trying to please the junta to hide how bad the economy really is being mismanaged.

Not too unreasonable figure for GDP, but the figure for the stock market is questionable... ?

We all know how volatile and interlinked the financial markets are...

The World Bank predicts the world economy at 2.7 - 2.9 % but naturally LoS has to be more successful.

The World Bank predicts the world economy at 2.7 - 2.9 % but naturally LoS has to be more successful.

Most Asean countries would be above average, developed countries around average, and third world countries below.

China facing economic downturn would be around 2.6 which is the square root of 6.8

forecast, is that like the weather forecast?

They announce a different number every 3 weeks. Throw a dart at a board. Just to hear themselves talk.

This are not the right kind of figures that Mr. P would like to see. PREPARE TO CATCH toys being thrown out of the PRAM! In-coming....

"The Krungsri Asset Management company has predicted that the Thai economy will expand by 3.2% this year"

vs

- Deputy PM Somkid predicted the Thai economy will grow by 2.8%-3% in 2016

- Kasikorn Bank Noppawan Jermhansa said the Thai economy would grow 3% in 2016 in a gradual manner

- The Kasikorn Research Center forecast that the overall Thai economy will expand by 3 percent in 2016

The economic"stage" for 2016:

- Foreign investment in Thailand plummeted 78% between the months of January and November 2015

- In 2015 the Thai stock market lost 12 per cent.

- Krungthai Bank predicts lending portfolios for corporate banking and retail will likely be flat in 2016.

- Thailand’s foreign reserves as of December 30 dropped US$900 million or about 32.6 billion baht.

- Volatility in global markets and currencies is forecast to push down the local Investor Confidence Index by 17.85% to 73.46 in March [2016].

- Foreign Investor Confidence Index fell 57.15% to 33.33.

What the government's reaction should be: PANIC

It is not allowed to report bad news. Also white lies are permisable. Remember the last finance minister said so?

Forecast 3.2%, a figure plucked out of thin air, or in this case hot air, or more likely trying to please the junta to hide how bad the economy really is being mismanaged.

Ms. Superporn is on a roll. She is leaving lots of room to lower the numbers. If the actual number comes in much lower does that mean she is gone or just transferred.

3.2% is just treading water. It Needs a higher growth rate than mature economies. But achieving 3.2% is a very big IF and wait to see it creep down over the course of the year. Headwinds are very strong.