Pound heads sharply lower on Brexit concerns

[i claudius]

Corbyn now joined the stay in brigade so highly likely now with his backing thats exactly what will happen in June

Corbyn voted against joining membership in 1975.

Corbyn voted against Maastricht treaty in 1993.

Corbyn voted against Lisbon treaty in 2008.

Corbyn still spoke against the EU in the summer of 2015.

Corbyn elected leader of the Labour Party 12th September 2015.

Corbyn immediately changes his views and now supports remaining in the EU.

You forgot

Corbyn is a left wing idiot of the first degree .

[nontabury]

Nothing really new but the part about expats is interesting:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/special-reports/how-brexit-will-affect-your-money/

And a Czech diplomat makes an interesting point:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/leave-backers-distorting-facts-of-huge-brexit-blow-czechs-say

So you show comments from those who wish for the UK to remain in the corrupt EU.

Goldman Sachs speculating the depreciating of the £. This same company caused part of the problem when they doctored the books in order for Greece to join the EU. Then you produce a report from a Czech diplomats who states/thinks that a Britex would be a bad thing, this I will agree with,as it will be bad for a number of EU countries who would no longer be able to rely on the daily subscription of Approximately £62,000,00 British tax payers money.

A suggestion Chiangmai, instead of producing biased reports from financial institutions and foreign countries, why not show information as to why it would benefit the UK and the British people to remain in the EU. Best of luck with that.

[chiang mai]

Nothing really new but the part about expats is interesting:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/special-reports/how-brexit-will-affect-your-money/

And a Czech diplomat makes an interesting point:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/leave-backers-distorting-facts-of-huge-brexit-blow-czechs-say

So you show comments from those who wish for the UK to remain in the corrupt EU.

Goldman Sachs speculating the depreciating of the £. This same company caused part of the problem when they doctored the books in order for Greece to join the EU. Then you produce a report from a Czech diplomats who states/thinks that a Britex would be a bad thing, this I will agree with,as it will be bad for a number of EU countries who would no longer be able to rely on the daily subscription of Approximately £62,000,00 British tax payers money.

A suggestion Chiangmai, instead of producing biased reports from financial institutions and foreign countries, why not show information as to why it would benefit the UK and the British people to remain in the EU. Best of luck with that.

I have absolutely no personal view on Brexit and I have zero bias for or against. I post what I find that is relative to Brexit and the Pound after I read a series of newspapers and web sites each day, I post those things that I think have some merit journalistically, factually, informationally and may be of interest to others - I'm sorry if all the articles can't please all the people all the time but hey, that's life.

A suggestion nontabury; if you don't like what I post, don't open the links, if you want to post a news link of your own, you can but don't complain to me that you think I'm producing biased reports, utter clap trap and nonsense. And if you can find articles describing, "why it would benefit the UK and the British people to remain in the EU", you post them, I've looked and the mainstream media simply aren't producing them, but we know you already knew that!

[davee58]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

Edited April 15, 2016 by davee58

[SheungWan]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

[SABloke]

Grouse, on 23 Feb 2016 - 17:30, said:Grouse, on 23 Feb 2016 - 17:30, said:

SgtRock, on 23 Feb 2016 - 14:02, said:SgtRock, on 23 Feb 2016 - 14:02, said:

Indulge me. I am intrigued as to how the wise '' Out '' people have just cost you £ 7,500 at a stroke. Perhaps you could explain ?

QuoteQuote

Quote

I recall when the Deutschmark was high against Sterling. Didn't help us selling poor quality cars to Germany or stop the Germans selling high quality cars to us!

The strength of the £ or DM had absolutely no bearing on this. Why would a German buy a poor quality car ? Likewise, why would a Brit buy an inferior product when it was easy to buy an Audi, BMW or a Merc.

Nothing to do with money and everything to do with quality.

SgtRock, do you really not understand? Let me explain as simply as I can!

1) I was going to bring over 250,000 GBP. That is now worth 3% less in TBT terms approx. Directly caused by Boris and the silly people spouting about leaving the EU. "wise" was irony. OK now?

2) You are just underlining my point. Trying to export more by devaluing currency does not work for our kind of economy. Innovation and quality is key. We should copy the way the German Mittelstand work if we want increase exports. Got it?

On your points.

1. How bizarre that Boris and the outers caused you to lose money. Considering that the exchange rate is higher today than it was 3 weeks ago. OK now, you got that ? Stop talking out of the wrong orifice.

2. Germans and Brits buy German cars because of the quality, nothing to do with strong currency, as you aptly highlighted in your post. You buy cheap you buy twice. Got it now ? It is an extremely easy concept to understand.

Good god, man. Do you not understand anything?

1) TBT/GBP was 51.5 two days ago. It is now 50.0. 250,000 GBP would have bought 12.875M TBT. IT now buys 12.5M TBT. Difference is 375,000 TBT = 7,500 GBP

Jesus!

2) You keep underlining MY point! What are you trying to say? Yes Grouse, you are absolutely correct?

I really can not be bothered with this........

So you didn't lose £7500 then You almost didn't lose 375 000 Tibetan Tibs though

[billd766]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

That of course would include me among many others, yet I have been an advocate of Brexit for a very long time.

[Chivas]

Corbyn now joined the stay in brigade so highly likely now with his backing thats exactly what will happen in June

Corbyn voted against joining membership in 1975.

Corbyn voted against Maastricht treaty in 1993.

Corbyn voted against Lisbon treaty in 2008.

Corbyn still spoke against the EU in the summer of 2015.

Corbyn elected leader of the Labour Party 12th September 2015.

Corbyn immediately changes his views and now supports remaining in the EU.

You forgot

Corbyn is a left wing idiot of the first degree .

Almost certainly but yesterday came out top of a trust Poll in uk with Boris 2nd. If Corbyn supporting the in vote makes a huge shift am afraid, I want out before anyone thinks I support Corbyn by the way !

[chiang mai]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

I'm not so sure about that, it's hard to believe that all the people who have advertised so publicly all the very bad things they think will happen if we do leave, are actually all lying! Personally I think the part about Sterling crashing is true and a Sterling crisis likely - the problem is that we have too much debt and the deficit is too great and we have extensive borrowings to cover that, a change in confidence will raise the cost of that servicing that debt. A good article on that this morning found here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/15/swiss-wealth-managers-warn-of-sudden-stop-in-capital-after-brexi/ (note: this is one of many on the same theme hence I'm inclined to believe this isn't a made up reason).

SO if you accept that the above is true, perhaps read this which extends that sentiment to cover the cost of borrowing, inflation and interest rates - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/15/mortgage-bills-will-rise-if-uk-votes-for-brexit-warns-osborne/

BTW I have no horse in this race and am relaxed about in or out because around two thirds of my income comes from US and THB sources.

EDIT TO ADD: this is the closest I could find this morning in any newspaper about the plus side of leaving. Boris apparently made a rousing speech telling everyone how great we would be yet again if we left but he doesn't seem to set out the detail of how and why other than saying we would be free and save 20 bill. a year.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/661532/EU-referendum-Brexit-Boris-Johnson-speech-Cameron-Osborne-Project-Fear

Edited April 15, 2016 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

IF after Brexit inflation is a given and rates have to rise as a result, the following consumer debt picture is not good:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-3539847/Household-debt-binge-hits-pre-crisis-levels-says-Bank-England.html

[chiang mai]

Last piece for today and this is really excellent, it's Moody's view of the UK and Brexit and supports the earlier view that debt is the issue, surely Moody's doesn't have an axe to grind on this issue! What they say in part is:

"The economic costs of Britain exiting the European Union would “outweigh the potential benefits” and may put the UK’s Aa1 credit rating at risk, Moody’s has warned. The ratings agency has cautioned that it could potentially put the UK’s rating on “negative outlook” if British voters back the UK leaving the EU at a referendum in June. This would mean the rating could potentially be at risk of a downgrade, which could in turn have ramifications for the cost of Britain servicing its debt. Moody’s said Britain quitting the EU would lead to “heightened uncertainty” which would result in “modestly weaker” economic growth in the UK over the medium term".

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/03/22/economic-costs-of-brexit-would-outweigh-benefits-moodys/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true

[davee58]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

UK expat Pensioners are not supported by the EU, nor should they be.

The British Pound is a strong, very important, world currency, most certainly losing further financial control, as will happen if we remain in the EU will not strengthen that position.

GBP agains THB is currently about 49.8, one year ago it was about 48, what difference, currency fluctuates.

Back to Pensions, I most certainly do not want the prospect of the EU seizing control of my UK pension.

Edited April 16, 2016 by davee58

[davee58]

Last piece for today and this is really excellent, it's Moody's view of the UK and Brexit and supports the earlier view that debt is the issue, surely Moody's doesn't have an axe to grind on this issue! What they say in part is:

"The economic costs of Britain exiting the European Union would “outweigh the potential benefits” and

may put the UK’s Aa1 credit rating at risk, Moody’s has warned. The ratings agency has cautioned that it

could potentially put the UK’s rating on “negative outlook” if British voters back the UK leaving the EU at a referendum in June. This would mean the rating

could potentially be at risk of a downgrade,

which could in turn have ramifications for the cost of Britain servicing its debt. Moody’s said Britain quitting the EU would lead to “heightened uncertainty” which would result in

“modestly weaker” economic growth in the UK over the medium term".

Unfortunately your link does not work without enrolment on the FT website.

However the benefits of exit from the EU would certainly outweigh the "modestly weaker economic growth over the medium term" anticipated by the writer of the article.

[nontabury]

You keep repeating that you are neither in the in- camp or on the side of exit, yet every post you have made,as far as I can remember, are all in favour of remaining in this so called Union.

[chiang mai]

You keep repeating that you are neither in the in- camp or on the side of exit, yet every post you have made,as far as I can remember, are all in favour of remaining in this so called Union.

Your memory is short, post 99 is Boris and his speech about Brexit'ing.

And as discussed earlier, if there were any other pieces being written in favour of Brexit, I would have posted them if for no other reason than to provide balance. But there aren't and so I haven't, but there again neither have you or anyone else, ergo, they DON'T EXIST! Now please, leave the, "he's biased" line alone, it's getting stale already.

[Grouse]

Grouse, on 23 Feb 2016 - 17:30, said:Grouse, on 23 Feb 2016 - 17:30, said:

SgtRock, on 23 Feb 2016 - 14:02, said:SgtRock, on 23 Feb 2016 - 14:02, said:

Indulge me. I am intrigued as to how the wise '' Out '' people have just cost you £ 7,500 at a stroke. Perhaps you could explain ?

QuoteQuote
Quote
I recall when the Deutschmark was high against Sterling. Didn't help us selling poor quality cars to Germany or stop the Germans selling high quality cars to us!

The strength of the £ or DM had absolutely no bearing on this. Why would a German buy a poor quality car ? Likewise, why would a Brit buy an inferior product when it was easy to buy an Audi, BMW or a Merc.

Nothing to do with money and everything to do with quality.

SgtRock, do you really not understand? Let me explain as simply as I can!

1) I was going to bring over 250,000 GBP. That is now worth 3% less in TBT terms approx. Directly caused by Boris and the silly people spouting about leaving the EU. "wise" was irony. OK now?

2) You are just underlining my point. Trying to export more by devaluing currency does not work for our kind of economy. Innovation and quality is key. We should copy the way the German Mittelstand work if we want increase exports. Got it?

On your points.

1. How bizarre that Boris and the outers caused you to lose money. Considering that the exchange rate is higher today than it was 3 weeks ago. OK now, you got that ? Stop talking out of the wrong orifice.

2. Germans and Brits buy German cars because of the quality, nothing to do with strong currency, as you aptly highlighted in your post. You buy cheap you buy twice. Got it now ? It is an extremely easy concept to understand.

Good god, man. Do you not understand anything?

1) TBT/GBP was 51.5 two days ago. It is now 50.0. 250,000 GBP would have bought 12.875M TBT. IT now buys 12.5M TBT. Difference is 375,000 TBT = 7,500 GBP

Jesus!

2) You keep underlining MY point! What are you trying to say? Yes Grouse, you are absolutely correct?

I really can not be bothered with this........

So you didn't lose £7500 then You almost didn't lose 375 000 Tibetan Tibs though

You need to use the same Forex data

My comment was made following fast dip in late February

I accept there has been some stabilisation

However, notional loss is still about 3%

[BritManToo]

49.84

Headline still wrong, guess nobody cares if the UK leaves the EU or not.

[SheungWan]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

UK expat Pensioners are not supported by the EU, nor should they be.

The British Pound is a strong, very important, world currency, most certainly losing further financial control, as will happen if we remain in the EU will not strengthen that position.

GBP agains THB is currently about 49.8, one year ago it was about 48, what difference, currency fluctuates.

Back to Pensions, I most certainly do not want the prospect of the EU seizing control of my UK pension.

Missing the point as well the BREXIT team always do. The point is that exit from the EU will drive down sterling. Those on sterling pensions will suffer from that exit if it happens. Blathering on about the British Pound being a world currency is just so much King Canute fluttering at the beach.

[i claudius]

Actually a year ago the baht was around 53 to 55 to the pound I brought a load of money over then

[BritManToo]

Actually a year ago the baht was around 53 to 55 to the pound I brought a load of money over then

April 2015 48.4

May 2015 52.8

June 2015 52

Didn't reach 55 until August 2015

Edited April 16, 2016 by BritManToo

[Neurath]

Makes our exports cheaper.

Good news.

Yep, a good thing. Being so cheep, International Students will flood into the UK! Oh wait a minute, they're foreigners! That won't do, it won't do at all.

[i claudius]

Actually a year ago the baht was around 53 to 55 to the pound I brought a load of money over then

April 2015 48.4

May 2015 52.8

June 2015 52

Didn't reach 55 until August 2015

Oh go on not pick ,I was a couple if weeks out):)

[davee58]

The only issue with leaving the EU is "fear of change", propogated by those who make most from Britain being in the EU.

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

UK expat Pensioners are not supported by the EU, nor should they be.

The British Pound is a strong, very important, world currency, most certainly losing further financial control, as will happen if we remain in the EU will not strengthen that position.

GBP agains THB is currently about 49.8, one year ago it was about 48, what difference, currency fluctuates.

Back to Pensions, I most certainly do not want the prospect of the EU seizing control of my UK pension.

Missing the point as well the BREXIT team always do. The point is that exit from the EU will drive down sterling. Those on sterling pensions will suffer from that exit if it happens. Blathering on about the British Pound being a world currency is just so much King Canute fluttering at the beach.

Don't get stressed about it, I can never understand why people have such a defeatist, negative attitude.

Exit might cause some minor short term weakness in the value of GBP during the initial days after exit, this will most certainly be short term.

[chiang mai]

That presumably includes UK pensioners in Thailand reliant on remittances in sterling.

UK expat Pensioners are not supported by the EU, nor should they be.

The British Pound is a strong, very important, world currency, most certainly losing further financial control, as will happen if we remain in the EU will not strengthen that position.

GBP agains THB is currently about 49.8, one year ago it was about 48, what difference, currency fluctuates.

Back to Pensions, I most certainly do not want the prospect of the EU seizing control of my UK pension.

Missing the point as well the BREXIT team always do. The point is that exit from the EU will drive down sterling. Those on sterling pensions will suffer from that exit if it happens. Blathering on about the British Pound being a world currency is just so much King Canute fluttering at the beach.

Don't get stressed about it, I can never understand why people have such a defeatist, negative attitude.

Exit might cause some minor short term weakness in the value of GBP during the initial days after exit, this will most certainly be short term.

Can I suggest you type the following words into your browser and read any of the pages of links to news articles on this subject,: "how long will brexit cause the Pound to crash"

[chiang mai]

Having read so much material on the subject of Brexit, I'm starting to conclude that Brexit is at best a very high risk strategy and at worst, hugely dangerous. And whilst it would be pleasant in many ways to return to the days of the the Raj and The Empire, nostalgia has no place in what is fast becoming a very emotive subject. As far as I can see nobody from the Brexit camp has put forward any details of how they see Brexit unfolding over time, all I read is that we'll be better alone and we'll go out as a country and do great things, even evoking the spirit of Churchill and the Second World War. On the other hand the Remain camp and others have set out a series of warning, often in great detail and they've shown their workings, disturbingly the Brexiteers have not countered those arguments and have often simply ignored them.

So what are we supposed to believe, is it highly probable the Pound will crash and remain low for some time, will the cost of servicing our massive debt and growing deficit cause a Sterling crisis, is it probable the UK will not be able to attract capital inflows to the same degree as previous and so on - the Remain group, business and various financial bodies and others say those things will happen, the Brexit group has not said anything about them other than that it's scaremongering, I find that very troubling and difficult to believe frankly.

And then there's immigration: I wonder how many people will vote to Brexit in the belief that by doing so the "immigration problem" will get resolved overnight, I reckon a substantial number will. But unless the UK wants to and is willing to shrink its economy substantially, it needs immigrants for its labour force and I don't think that point is very clearly understood by all.

Finally there's the belief in some quarters that whatever is going to happen that's bad, things will only remain bad for a very short period of time, the poster above thinks that as do others. Personally, I don't think major issues such as some of the ones mentioned here will get resolved quickly. I think that in the event of a Brexit we could be in for a major step change that lasts a very long time and it could be painful for many, all because some people think that Brexit will cure problems that it wont and because we want the UK to be returned to greatness again, hmmm!

Personally I could go along with the concept of Brexit if only the Brexit camp would drop the conspiracy theories and would sensibly counter some of the very credible arguments being put forward to Remain, but this business of everything being better on the day and afterwards is so vague as to be almost comical.

[SheungWan]

Because The UK can not afford to leave The EU.The thinking is that if they did then Scotland would leave The UK and they are a large source of income to loose Then what industries is England left with? So dropping the value opf the pound at this time might send a signal to the big money people "not to back" leaving.

Yes once Scotland leaves then the pound will go lower and lower, but I don't think that should stop the UK from leaving the EU. It will only hit expats anyway and they seem to be all in favor for leaving the EU so they would not mind much just a small sacrifice.

It will hit hard on the people in England also as prices on commodities will be sharply up.

Surely the UK has some products they don't have to import and who knows they might start to make products themselves. I think its the expats on pensions that will be hit hardest. It might be a blessing if the UK will go all protectionist and create their own market, it will take a while 10 of years.. but it might work. But until that time (switching takes time) the expats will suffer.

But as most do want the UK to leave Europe its a small sacrifice for their conviction. I know that I would have loved to pay for the EU kicking out Greece. It would have hurt me financially but it would have been worth it to me. i am sure the real anti EU Brits would not mind the loss of income. Its a principle matter for sure, just a few beers less.. or a few ladies of the night less. But then they know that they are boss in their own country again.

Don't call me Shirley. Well isn't that nice for us that in the cause of a 'principled' cause for the BREXITS the rest of us can take a sterling hit for 'er....10 years. And there you have it in a nutshell why the vote will remain to stay in and the odds for leaving are still 2/1.

[SgtRock]

Having read so much material on the subject of Brexit, I'm starting to conclude that Brexit is at best a very high risk strategy and at worst, hugely dangerous. And whilst it would be pleasant in many ways to return to the days of the the Raj and The Empire, nostalgia has no place in what is fast becoming a very emotive subject. As far as I can see nobody from the Brexit camp has put forward any details of how they see Brexit unfolding over time, all I read is that we'll be better alone and we'll go out as a country and do great things, even evoking the spirit of Churchill and the Second World War. On the other hand the Remain camp and others have set out a series of warning, often in great detail and they've shown their workings, disturbingly the Brexiteers have not countered those arguments and have often simply ignored them.

So what are we supposed to believe, is it highly probable the Pound will crash and remain low for some time, will the cost of servicing our massive debt and growing deficit cause a Sterling crisis, is it probable the UK will not be able to attract capital inflows to the same degree as previous and so on - the Remain group, business and various financial bodies and others say those things will happen, the Brexit group has not said anything about them other than that it's scaremongering, I find that very troubling and difficult to believe frankly.

And then there's immigration: I wonder how many people will vote to Brexit in the belief that by doing so the "immigration problem" will get resolved overnight, I reckon a substantial number will. But unless the UK wants to and is willing to shrink its economy substantially, it needs immigrants for its labour force and I don't think that point is very clearly understood by all.

Finally there's the belief in some quarters that whatever is going to happen that's bad, things will only remain bad for a very short period of time, the poster above thinks that as do others. Personally, I don't think major issues such as some of the ones mentioned here will get resolved quickly. I think that in the event of a Brexit we could be in for a major step change that lasts a very long time and it could be painful for many, all because some people think that Brexit will cure problems that it wont and because we want the UK to be returned to greatness again, hmmm!

Personally I could go along with the concept of Brexit if only the Brexit camp would drop the conspiracy theories and would sensibly counter some of the very credible arguments being put forward to Remain, but this business of everything being better on the day and afterwards is so vague as to be almost comical.

Interesting reading chiang mai and I hope that these points will give you something to consider.

1. An exit from the EU may well be a high risk strategy. I do not think many people would hark back to the days of the British Empire and Raj, the world has moved on and history shows us that there has not been a successful empire, ever. It could also be argued that the EU is empire building by stealth and history will repeat itself and it is doomed to failure.

2. The pound will definately fall, short term, of course everyone's definition of short term is different. The UK's massive debt, now that deserves a whole topic on its own. The UK is currently borrowing £ 8 Billion a month just to keep the lights on. Despite every measure that has been imposed over the last 6 years it is still on an upward trend. This does not go anywhere near the internal robbing of Peter to pay Paul that is happening across every sector. So what is the answer ? Stay on the same road and watch as financially the UK heads down the plug hole ? On its current path things will only get worse, not better. Or be dynamic and say change or die ?

3. Immigration is only a small part of the problem. I would suggest that when you currently have 1.6 million that are claiming JSA you do not need low skilled immigrants. It is utter fallacy to believe that there is only 1.6 million unemployed in the UK. When you run out of unemployed people then you have to turn to immigration to boost numbers.

4, Me, you or anyone else have no idea how long things may be bad for. What is certain is that the current path that the UK is on it is only going to go downhill, year on year, until it resembles a failed state. So why not grasp the nettle, admit that things are not working and lets at least attempt to reverse the downward trend. I would also argue that the UK currently needs major change, the status quo is not working, so lets change it.

5. It is not only Brexit that are full of conspiracy theories. So are the Remain camp. Only yesterday that fool, masquarading as a Chancellor announced that a Brexit will raise interest rates. What a load of dung, interest rates will rise regardless of in or out. They cannot stay this low forever.

In Summary.

There are many problems in the UK. Taken in isolation, individually they are really very small. Taken cumulatively, they change the picture substantially.

I am a great believer in the old adage '' Get your own house in order and everything else becomes easy ''

[chiang mai]

Having read so much material on the subject of Brexit, I'm starting to conclude that Brexit is at best a very high risk strategy and at worst, hugely dangerous. And whilst it would be pleasant in many ways to return to the days of the the Raj and The Empire, nostalgia has no place in what is fast becoming a very emotive subject. As far as I can see nobody from the Brexit camp has put forward any details of how they see Brexit unfolding over time, all I read is that we'll be better alone and we'll go out as a country and do great things, even evoking the spirit of Churchill and the Second World War. On the other hand the Remain camp and others have set out a series of warning, often in great detail and they've shown their workings, disturbingly the Brexiteers have not countered those arguments and have often simply ignored them.

So what are we supposed to believe, is it highly probable the Pound will crash and remain low for some time, will the cost of servicing our massive debt and growing deficit cause a Sterling crisis, is it probable the UK will not be able to attract capital inflows to the same degree as previous and so on - the Remain group, business and various financial bodies and others say those things will happen, the Brexit group has not said anything about them other than that it's scaremongering, I find that very troubling and difficult to believe frankly.

And then there's immigration: I wonder how many people will vote to Brexit in the belief that by doing so the "immigration problem" will get resolved overnight, I reckon a substantial number will. But unless the UK wants to and is willing to shrink its economy substantially, it needs immigrants for its labour force and I don't think that point is very clearly understood by all.

Finally there's the belief in some quarters that whatever is going to happen that's bad, things will only remain bad for a very short period of time, the poster above thinks that as do others. Personally, I don't think major issues such as some of the ones mentioned here will get resolved quickly. I think that in the event of a Brexit we could be in for a major step change that lasts a very long time and it could be painful for many, all because some people think that Brexit will cure problems that it wont and because we want the UK to be returned to greatness again, hmmm!

Personally I could go along with the concept of Brexit if only the Brexit camp would drop the conspiracy theories and would sensibly counter some of the very credible arguments being put forward to Remain, but this business of everything being better on the day and afterwards is so vague as to be almost comical.

Interesting reading chiang mai and I hope that these points will give you something to consider.

1. An exit from the EU may well be a high risk strategy. I do not think many people would hark back to the days of the British Empire and Raj, the world has moved on and history shows us that there has not been a successful empire, ever. It could also be argued that the EU is empire building by stealth and history will repeat itself and it is doomed to failure.

2. The pound will definately fall, short term, of course everyone's definition of short term is different. The UK's massive debt, now that deserves a whole topic on its own. The UK is currently borrowing £ 8 Billion a month just to keep the lights on. Despite every measure that has been imposed over the last 6 years it is still on an upward trend. This does not go anywhere near the internal robbing of Peter to pay Paul that is happening across every sector. So what is the answer ? Stay on the same road and watch as financially the UK heads down the plug hole ? On its current path things will only get worse, not better. Or be dynamic and say change or die ?

3. Immigration is only a small part of the problem. I would suggest that when you currently have 1.6 million that are claiming JSA you do not need low skilled immigrants. It is utter fallacy to believe that there is only 1.6 million unemployed in the UK. When you run out of unemployed people then you have to turn to immigration to boost numbers.

4, Me, you or anyone else have no idea how long things may be bad for. What is certain is that the current path that the UK is on it is only going to go downhill, year on year, until it resembles a failed state. So why not grasp the nettle, admit that things are not working and lets at least attempt to reverse the downward trend. I would also argue that the UK currently needs major change, the status quo is not working, so lets change it.

5. It is not only Brexit that are full of conspiracy theories. So are the Remain camp. Only yesterday that fool, masquarading as a Chancellor announced that a Brexit will raise interest rates. What a load of dung, interest rates will rise regardless of in or out. They cannot stay this low forever.

In Summary.

There are many problems in the UK. Taken in isolation, individually they are really very small. Taken cumulatively, they change the picture substantially.

I am a great believer in the old adage '' Get your own house in order and everything else becomes easy ''

A good post, I think we can agree on many of those points.

I'm not sure about point 5 however. Whilst I agree interest rates cannot stay low forever I think there's a good and bad time and a right and wrong reason for them to increase. A good time would be when the global economy is improving and we are in step with it, a bad time would be when we are the odd man out and going against the flow.

A right reason would be if demand were starting to increase, a bad reason would be if there was a Sterling crisis that forced investors to sell assets thus driving up the cost of imports and generally making things more expensive, the following explains more clearly: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/15/would-brexit-really-force-up-your-mortgage-rate-george-osborne-eu.

With regard to the 1.6 million immigrant JSA claimants: I don't know the details but I recall reading something on this that said the majority were effectively unemployable relatives of migrants, a legacy problem that does little to bolster the work force, they're historical overhead if you like.

Finally, I'm OK with grasping nettles and I agree that's a useable and often sensible strategy, I'd just like to be certain before grasping that nettle that there isn't a sprout of Monkshood growing in its centre before I do so.

[SgtRock]

Having read so much material on the subject of Brexit, I'm starting to conclude that Brexit is at best a very high risk strategy and at worst, hugely dangerous. And whilst it would be pleasant in many ways to return to the days of the the Raj and The Empire, nostalgia has no place in what is fast becoming a very emotive subject. As far as I can see nobody from the Brexit camp has put forward any details of how they see Brexit unfolding over time, all I read is that we'll be better alone and we'll go out as a country and do great things, even evoking the spirit of Churchill and the Second World War. On the other hand the Remain camp and others have set out a series of warning, often in great detail and they've shown their workings, disturbingly the Brexiteers have not countered those arguments and have often simply ignored them.

So what are we supposed to believe, is it highly probable the Pound will crash and remain low for some time, will the cost of servicing our massive debt and growing deficit cause a Sterling crisis, is it probable the UK will not be able to attract capital inflows to the same degree as previous and so on - the Remain group, business and various financial bodies and others say those things will happen, the Brexit group has not said anything about them other than that it's scaremongering, I find that very troubling and difficult to believe frankly.

And then there's immigration: I wonder how many people will vote to Brexit in the belief that by doing so the "immigration problem" will get resolved overnight, I reckon a substantial number will. But unless the UK wants to and is willing to shrink its economy substantially, it needs immigrants for its labour force and I don't think that point is very clearly understood by all.

Finally there's the belief in some quarters that whatever is going to happen that's bad, things will only remain bad for a very short period of time, the poster above thinks that as do others. Personally, I don't think major issues such as some of the ones mentioned here will get resolved quickly. I think that in the event of a Brexit we could be in for a major step change that lasts a very long time and it could be painful for many, all because some people think that Brexit will cure problems that it wont and because we want the UK to be returned to greatness again, hmmm!

Personally I could go along with the concept of Brexit if only the Brexit camp would drop the conspiracy theories and would sensibly counter some of the very credible arguments being put forward to Remain, but this business of everything being better on the day and afterwards is so vague as to be almost comical.

Interesting reading chiang mai and I hope that these points will give you something to consider.

1. An exit from the EU may well be a high risk strategy. I do not think many people would hark back to the days of the British Empire and Raj, the world has moved on and history shows us that there has not been a successful empire, ever. It could also be argued that the EU is empire building by stealth and history will repeat itself and it is doomed to failure.

2. The pound will definately fall, short term, of course everyone's definition of short term is different. The UK's massive debt, now that deserves a whole topic on its own. The UK is currently borrowing £ 8 Billion a month just to keep the lights on. Despite every measure that has been imposed over the last 6 years it is still on an upward trend. This does not go anywhere near the internal robbing of Peter to pay Paul that is happening across every sector. So what is the answer ? Stay on the same road and watch as financially the UK heads down the plug hole ? On its current path things will only get worse, not better. Or be dynamic and say change or die ?

3. Immigration is only a small part of the problem. I would suggest that when you currently have 1.6 million that are claiming JSA you do not need low skilled immigrants. It is utter fallacy to believe that there is only 1.6 million unemployed in the UK. When you run out of unemployed people then you have to turn to immigration to boost numbers.

4, Me, you or anyone else have no idea how long things may be bad for. What is certain is that the current path that the UK is on it is only going to go downhill, year on year, until it resembles a failed state. So why not grasp the nettle, admit that things are not working and lets at least attempt to reverse the downward trend. I would also argue that the UK currently needs major change, the status quo is not working, so lets change it.

5. It is not only Brexit that are full of conspiracy theories. So are the Remain camp. Only yesterday that fool, masquarading as a Chancellor announced that a Brexit will raise interest rates. What a load of dung, interest rates will rise regardless of in or out. They cannot stay this low forever.

In Summary.

There are many problems in the UK. Taken in isolation, individually they are really very small. Taken cumulatively, they change the picture substantially.

I am a great believer in the old adage '' Get your own house in order and everything else becomes easy ''

A good post, I think we can agree on many of those points.

I'm not sure about point 5 however. Whilst I agree interest rates cannot stay low forever I think there's a good and bad time and a right and wrong reason for them to increase. A good time would be when the global economy is improving and we are in step with it, a bad time would be when we are the odd man out and going against the flow.

A right reason would be if demand were starting to increase, a bad reason would be if there was a Sterling crisis that forced investors to sell assets thus driving up the cost of imports and generally making things more expensive, the following explains more clearly: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/15/would-brexit-really-force-up-your-mortgage-rate-george-osborne-eu.

With regard to the 1.6 million immigrant JSA claimants: I don't know the details but I recall reading something on this that said the majority were effectively unemployable relatives of migrants, a legacy problem that does little to bolster the work force, they're historical overhead if you like.

Finally, I'm OK with grasping nettles and I agree that's a useable and often sensible strategy, I'd just like to be certain before grasping that nettle that there isn't a sprout of Monkshood growing in its centre before I do so.

1. My point on interest rates rising was made with no regard for right, wrong, good or bad time for them to increase. It was to highlighting Osborne's stupidity in claiming that a Brexit would cause them to rise. Rise they will and it will have nothing to do with remaining or going. There are plenty of reports that the EU economy as a whole is shrinking faster than anywhere else in the world. Gives rise for more indepth analysis.

2. You highlight my point perfectly about getting your your own house in order regarding imports. I wont dwell on this too much other than to say that the UK is far too reliant on imports that should be getting produced in the UK. Sure, there will always be stuff that we need to import. When you have a Country that is a gross importer, such as the UK, you are always on a hiding to nothing, that needs to change PDQ. I for one believe that there is a multitude of hidden talent that has been thrust aside due to incompetence that could easily be brought back to the fore to turning the UK from a net importer to a net exporter. I will let you draw your own conclusion to where this incompetence lies.

3. Before someone misreads and jumps all over me. I said 1.6 million claiming JSA, not 1.6 million immigrants claiming JSA. Whether they be British born or otherwise, whilst we have this, there is no need for immigrants. Get these people into real, paid employment first. When the need arises for more workers, then a policy of controlled migration is called for. There are many reasons why people are unemployable, should the taxpayer be funding them ? I think not.

4. Life contains 2 certainties. BIRTH and DEATH. there are no other certainties. One can be a sheep or a lion, that is an individual choice. What I will say, due to certain factors there are now far more sheep in the UK than there is lions and that is mainly due to the nanny state.

5. Most people will have broad agreement on a vast range of issues, what they will never agree on is the road that needs to be travelled to fix those issues. Successive Governments have made sure of that and there is nothing more blinding than those who vehemently adhere to a Political Party.

[davee58]

Don't get stressed about it, I can never understand why people have such a defeatist, negative attitude.

Exit might cause some minor short term weakness in the value of GBP during the initial days after exit, this will most certainly be short term.

Can I suggest you type the following words into your browser and read any of the pages of links to news articles on this subject,: "how long will brexit cause the Pound to crash"

Why?

I am quite aware of the various scenarios for Brexit.