TDRI forecast 2.8% growth this year

BANGKOK: Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) forecast the country's economic growth this year at 2.8%.

TDRI director Ms Kirida Phaophichit attributed the growth figure to government investments in infrastructure projects and low oil prices.

These factors will support the economy this year, she said.

She also forecast the tourism sector to expand 15%.

However, factors that could affect the economy are exports and drought crisis.

She said exports should shrink again this year for the third consecutive year due to slow economic recovery of the country’s trading partners.

Meanwhile the ongoing drought crisis will also affect consumption in the agricultural sector and reduce the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.5 percent or 60 billion baht, she added.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/155857

-- Thai PBS 2016-03-19

2.8%, so they forecast the same as last year...

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth

TDRI forecast the country's economic growth this year at 2.8%.

It was just last month that TDRI said the Thai economy would likely expand at a rate similar to last year or at 2.5% (typo error said 3.5%)

The Siam Commercial Bank President Yol Phokasub forecasted this month that Thailand's economy this year is expected to recover gradually and should expand by no less than 2.5%.

Also this month the World Bank expected Thailand’s economy to contract from 2.5% GDP growth in 2015 to just 2.0% growth in 2016.

World Bank may be correct.

If the ongoing drought crisis does affect consumption in the agricultural sector and reduce the country’s GDP by 0.5%, TDRI’s prediction falls to 2.3%. If exports continue to contract, maybe lose another 0.5% on GDP growth or 1.8% ! That’s close to the World Bank’s prediction.

They must know they need to devalue the Baht or let it float ?