Baht Won’t Strengthen Until Economy Is Affected

[george]

Baht won’t strengthen until economy is affected, says former SET chief

BANGKOK: -- The baht will not strengthen to such an extent that the country’s overall economy will be affected, projects former Stock Exchange of Thailand’s president Kittirat Na Ranong.

Speaking at a seminar on “Opening of Economic Perspective in 2007,” he said by comparison with neighbouring economies, the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent and the export growth of 10.3 per cent.

However, economists at many think tanks forecast the economy would expand no less than 4-5 per cent, higher than 3.5 per cent expected earlier. Should the economic growth be lower than that, it would have an impact on the employment of new graduates.

In his view, although the economy would grow at a slower pace, it remains stable particularly since the country’s international reserve is as high as US$60 billion.

He believed the baht would not strengthen to such an extent that exporters would be adversely affected.

The local currency is expected to move more steadily since the government, particularly the Finance Ministry, reiterated the country’s economic growth still had to depend on currency revenue from the exports.

Mr. Kittirat viewed the state and private consumption would play an active role in boosting the economy next year.

What he was concerned is a lack of confidence by the private sector in investment expansion. So, he wanted private companies to have courage to invest in various fields.

--TNA 2006-11-03

[Rinrada]

Friday, November 3, 2006

1 British Pound = 70.05165 Thai Baht

1 Thai Baht (THB) = 0.01428 British Pound (GBP)

Nice round figure for today.....

from Oanda.

[Naam]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

[Steph1012]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

Thats it, All the Thai national parks have given us a 100 percent hike already. They seam to think that this will not impact on their inflation.

[Firefan]

Yeah those inflation nos are completely off target...

My guess would be in the 5-10% range with "expat-purchase-style" (more travel, buying foreign goods and specialities Etc.) being even higher. Cheers!

[lannarebirth]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

These kinds of press releases are completely worthless. Not only does he have no idea what the baht will do, he has no idea what inflation will do either, The governments official inflation rate for last year was 5.9% I believe, which was about the same as the economic growth figures; which means of course that there was zero economic growth.

[samran]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

Thats it, All the Thai national parks have given us a 100 percent hike already. They seam to think that this will not impact on their inflation.

Why should it? National park visitation would make up probably 0.000001% of annual household expenditure. Furthermore, national park visits would be hardly what the BOT and the Ministry of Finance would define as a basic consumption good which should be part of the 'average basket of goods' used to define inflation.

They could increase national park entrance fees 1000% and it would have no impact on inflation overall.

[Kaojai]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

According to the Asian Development Bank:

Inflationary pressure is expected to ebb. The moderate tightening of monetary policy should slow consumer spending, which could also be affected by political uncertainty. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce enforced stringent price controls on a range of consumer goods in early 2006. Oil prices are projected to rise more moderately. In view of these factors, the inflation rate for 2006 is forecast at 4.0%, decelerating further to about 3.0% in 2007 (Figure 2.28.9).

Economic forecasts are obviously never all that accurate, whether in Thailand or UK or USA and, depending on who's doing the predicting, there is likely to be a political component in the calculations.

One thing that is predictable with almost 100% accuracy is that no matter what a Thai official says, the Carry-On-Farang Troupe will start foaming at the mouth declaring they know better based on ... based on...golly what would it be that their supreme certainty could be based on? Maybe Divine intervention?? It's hard to believe they kept some price records on the whole range of things which go into the THAI consumer index (as opposed to farang liquor and condom purchases). I guess when your white, you just know better about everything.

[dotcom]

Yes to measure Thai inflation - we should include the price of 5 series BMW, short time motel rooms & meer noi's. O yeah & Burmese servants.

[manutoo]

The only product which I know the price over 5 years is the bread "made fresh daily since 1982" (i don't know the brand name, it's written in Thai ).

It was at 22b on June 2001, and it reached 27b about 5 years later.

That's a yearly inflation of 4.2% ...

I also remember a few hotel prices, but the prices variations can't be caused only by inflation.

If anyone remembers the prices of something from everyday life, I'd be curious to see what was its evolution on the last 5 years.

[pap]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

According to the Asian Development Bank:

Inflationary pressure is expected to ebb. The moderate tightening of monetary policy should slow consumer spending, which could also be affected by political uncertainty. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce enforced stringent price controls on a range of consumer goods in early 2006. Oil prices are projected to rise more moderately. In view of these factors, the inflation rate for 2006 is forecast at 4.0%, decelerating further to about 3.0% in 2007 (Figure 2.28.9).

Economic forecasts are obviously never all that accurate, whether in Thailand or UK or USA and, depending on who's doing the predicting, there is likely to be a political component in the calculations.

One thing that is predictable with almost 100% accuracy is that no matter what a Thai official says, the Carry-On-Farang Troupe will start foaming at the mouth declaring they know better based on ... based on...golly what would it be that their supreme certainty could be based on? Maybe Divine intervention?? It's hard to believe they kept some price records on the whole range of things which go into the THAI consumer index (as opposed to farang liquor and condom purchases). I guess when your white, you just know better about everything.

You should be commended on your tolerance based on skin color.

Forgive me but I thought the subject was actually economic not racial. By the way the baskets of consumable items includes "consumables". (as opposed to farang liquor and condom purchases) = consumables. Consumables are things that go away when used. I assume most of us understand these are actually consumables.

What you seem to miss is that Thai officials are often inaccurate. That is also true of YOUR so called "farang" officials but the subject here is not about farang officials. Its about Thai officials. Each of us in our respective countries frequently call BS on our own people as well. You apparently haven't looked around much.

Cheers.

[Foggy Bottom]

Depemdimg on which "standard basket" is used, two major factors that might be in there (or not) are the price of petrol and the price of housing

Both have surged ober the last few years, but I'm starting to hear that house prices are collapsing in the same way as Condo prices have done this year.

Perhaps that negative factor is suppressing the increases in in other items?

Then again, their daily essentials basket might only contain Tesco-Lotus "Roll back" priced groceries?

[hardy1943]

According to the Asian Development Bank:

Inflationary pressure is expected to ebb. The moderate tightening of monetary policy should slow consumer spending, which could also be affected by political uncertainty. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce enforced stringent price controls on a range of consumer goods in early 2006. Oil prices are projected to rise more moderately. In view of these factors, the inflation rate for 2006 is forecast at 4.0%, decelerating further to about 3.0% in 2007 (Figure 2.28.9).

Economic forecasts are obviously never all that accurate, whether in Thailand or UK or USA and, depending on who's doing the predicting, there is likely to be a political component in the calculations.

One thing that is predictable with almost 100% accuracy is that no matter what a Thai official says, the Carry-On-Farang Troupe will start foaming at the mouth declaring they know better based on ... based on...golly what would it be that their supreme certainty could be based on? Maybe Divine intervention?? It's hard to believe they kept some price records on the whole range of things which go into the THAI consumer index (as opposed to farang liquor and condom purchases). I guess when your white, you just know better about everything.

We are not perfect, but we certainly have better economists and know how to run our banking

and our financial institutions much more efficient. How many Thais or any other economist from South East Asian have ever won the Nobel Prize in Economics. None.

Last weeks statement that the Baht was so strong because of foreign investment in Thailand

BULLSHIT

Then the statement " Baht Won't Strengthen Until Economy Is Affected" is Bullshit also. The Baht

it is the highest against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen in in Years.

Both happened to be the biggest economies in the world.

The Baht is in Chinese Yuan Basket of currencies and anyone that has BLoomberg can watch on a daily basis if the Yuan strengthens so does the Bath.The Yuan is still under valued so expect

bath to strengthen to 1 US Dollar = 35 Bath. It really has nothing to do with the Thai economy.

So when you buy the Bangkok Post take out the Economy section and wrap your fish with it ,

that is about the only thing it is good for

[ccarbaugh]

The only product which I know the price over 5 years is the bread "made fresh daily since 1982" (i don't know the brand name, it's written in Thai ).

It was at 22b on June 2001, and it reached 27b about 5 years later.

That's a yearly inflation of 4.2% ...

I also remember a few hotel prices, but the prices variations can't be caused only by inflation.

If anyone remembers the prices of something from everyday life, I'd be curious to see what was its evolution on the last 5 years.

I don't know about 5 years ago but 34 years ago, a short-time was loi baht, (long-time song loi baht.) Gooteo 3 baht, kow-pot 7 baht, Sukhumvit to Patpong via tuktuk - 12 baht, .....

[falux]

We all complain and yet, some of us prefer to be here in Thailand rather than at home, where tax and social security suck the last drop of blood out of our body (and that's after emptying the pockets and the bank accounts).

It is certain that Thais do mistakes and do make false statements in order not to loose face, but keep in mind that the country is developing, and doing it fast.

[OOLEEBER]

According to the Asian Development Bank:

So when you buy the Bangkok Post take out the Economy section and wrap your fish with it ,

that is about the only thing it is good for

I enjoy reading it but I suspect you're right all the same. No one has a crystal ball and there are always unseen factors even if the best intended forecasts are un-biased.

[nikster]

Read that statement as it's meant: Talking the currency down.

I would be interested to know more about why the Thai Baht is in the "basket" of Yuan currencies - how come? China surely is big and strong, but what does it have to do with Thailand, which, by all accounts, is nowhere near the booming Chinese economy in either size or growth rate.

[bloody tiger]

Just a thought....

The biigest single factor in any countries forecasts for inflation would be the price of oil ( barring war, major disasters etc). As the price of oil has dropped considerably over the last few months, the actual predicted inflation rate would be lowered.

So the 2% "prediction" may actually come to be...stranger things have happened!!!

Its only a thought....don't read too deep into it

[Naam]

It is certain that Thais do mistakes and do make false statements in order not to loose face, but keep in mind that the country is developing, and doing it fast.

i don't think that we should refer to "Thais". politicians, public servants and persons who make statements which migth be in their own interest lie blatantly as far as inflation rates are concerned. this happens worldwide and is not limited to Thailand.

[skorchio]

"the Thai economy next year is projected to grow 3.9 per cent with an inflation rate of 2 per cent"

*****

2% inflation? whom is Khun Kittirat Na Ranong trying to bullsh*t? some farang tourist who spends a two week vacation in Thailand?

perhaps the 2% inflation covers the 2 week holiday

[raslin]

The only product which I know the price over 5 years is the bread "made fresh daily since 1982" (i don't know the brand name, it's written in Thai ).

It was at 22b on June 2001, and it reached 27b about 5 years later.

That's a yearly inflation of 4.2% ...

I also remember a few hotel prices, but the prices variations can't be caused only by inflation.

If anyone remembers the prices of something from everyday life, I'd be curious to see what was its evolution on the last 5 years.

I think is it made by Farmhouse. If they make it fresh daily it's a pity they don't sell it fresh daily. Deliveries once a week to local supermarkets!

[Martin]

The title of this topic is a blinding glimpse of the obvious!

It is equivalent to saying that I won't feel less hungry until I eat some food!

[aznyron]

Depemdimg on which "standard basket" is used, two major factors that might be in there (or not) are the price of petrol and the price of housing

Both have surged ober the last few years, but I'm starting to hear that house prices are collapsing in the same way as Condo prices have done this year.

Perhaps that negative factor is suppressing the increases in in other items?

Then again, their daily essentials basket might only contain Tesco-Lotus "Roll back" priced groceries?

You can tell me all the B.S you want about inflation growth etc the truth is the thai baht is over valued why they are buying up usd the euro and the brit/pound and then the truth comes to play they dump the thai baht and buy it back at huge profit I am no economist but I am not stupid I am street kid born in brooklyn N.Y. and know when a scam is being played I am also white and we wrote the book on scams sadly I am here and losing money every month when I transfer my pension money to live here if things don't change I will go to a neighboring country were I will be treated well sadly I will lose what I have bought in thailand and possibly my g/f will lose the cash cow when I depart along with many other white boys from around the world who have been supporting thai girls and there families along with there husbands and there children and neigbors children and distant families that do not exist AMEN

[DFCarlson]

I'm no economist, butI agree that the starter post of this thread says little, and that the author likely cannot predict where either inflation or the value of the baht will go.

But there are two sides to the equation. I bring dollars from the US to my baht account in Thailand, and the number of baht I get for a dollar has been steadily declining. But is the reason for this that the baht is strong, or is it that the dollar is weak? In this case, Thai baht vs US$, with Mr. Bush's war in Iraq with its attendant costs and a very high national debt I can't help but believe that it's the dollar that's weak, driving the baht/dollar ratio down.

Maybe after the US elections next Tuesday I'll see some reversal of the trend!

[eljeque]

Read that statement as it's meant: Talking the currency down.

I would be interested to know more about why the Thai Baht is in the "basket" of Yuan currencies - how come? China surely is big and strong, but what does it have to do with Thailand, which, by all accounts, is nowhere near the booming Chinese economy in either size or growth rate.

THe Chinese buy a lot of agricultural products rom Thailand, and the Thais buiy a lot of products from China. As trade between the two countries (two currencies) is large, the Chinese include the baht in its basket.

Cuntries generally try to have their "currency basket" as an approximation of their trade and investmet with those countries.

[pascharay]

I'm no economist, butI agree that the starter post of this thread says little, and that the author likely cannot predict where either inflation or the value of the baht will go.

But there are two sides to the equation. I bring dollars from the US to my baht account in Thailand, and the number of baht I get for a dollar has been steadily declining. But is the reason for this that the baht is strong, or is it that the dollar is weak? In this case, Thai baht vs US$, with Mr. Bush's war in Iraq with its attendant costs and a very high national debt I can't help but believe that it's the dollar that's weak, driving the baht/dollar ratio down.

Maybe after the US elections next Tuesday I'll see some reversal of the trend!

The dollar was weakened over the last two year's by the then-US Treasury Secretary in order to bolster the stock market with cheap stocks for US currency holders from overseas and fight the trade deficit with inexpensive US goods. The first voodoo economic scheme suceeded with the dow jones reaching 12000, although considering that the dollar has shrunk on an average about 15% against most strong currency, the real DJ average is about 10000. The second policy was a complete failure and led to record trade deficits with most major trading partners.

The cost of this failed agenda could be seen most dramatically with this summer's oil hike. Oil is bought with dollars. dollars were weak. OPEC pushed the price up to make up for the loss in revenue from the decreasing value of the dollar. Speculators further raissed the price on crude to record levels. Now the talk is about the Euro taking over as the world's reserve currency.

Will the baht strengthen against the dollar?

It has no choice at the moment, although most federal banks will fight the rise in order to protect the reserve they are holding in the banks to curtail a run on the dollar.

As for inflation.

6% sounds as right as 2%.

[aznyron]

I'm no economist, butI agree that the starter post of this thread says little, and that the author likely cannot predict where either inflation or the value of the baht will go.

But there are two sides to the equation. I bring dollars from the US to my baht account in Thailand, and the number of baht I get for a dollar has been steadily declining. But is the reason for this that the baht is strong, or is it that the dollar is weak? In this case, Thai baht vs US$, with Mr. Bush's war in Iraq with its attendant costs and a very high national debt I can't help but believe that it's the dollar that's weak, driving the baht/dollar ratio down.

Maybe after the US elections next Tuesday I'll see some reversal of the trend!

The dollar was weakened over the last two year's by the then-US Treasury Secretary in order to bolster the stock market with cheap stocks for US currency holders from overseas and fight the trade deficit with inexpensive US goods. The first voodoo economic scheme suceeded with the dow jones reaching 12000, although considering that the dollar has shrunk on an average about 15% against most strong currency, the real DJ average is about 10000. The second policy was a complete failure and led to record trade deficits with most major trading partners.

The cost of this failed agenda could be seen most dramatically with this summer's oil hike. Oil is bought with dollars. dollars were weak. OPEC pushed the price up to make up for the loss in revenue from the decreasing value of the dollar. Speculators further raissed the price on crude to record levels. Now the talk is about the Euro taking over as the world's reserve currency.

Will the baht strengthen against the dollar?

It has no choice at the moment, although most federal banks will fight the rise in order to protect the reserve they are holding in the banks to curtail a run on the dollar.

As for inflation.

6% sounds as right as 2%.

Then why is it the oil price at the U S pump has drop to about almost 1 usd we have seen a decline in oil prices here in thailand also so your theory is all wet it all about banking system they don't care about business or tourism in thailand look at bkk bank why is it they give less baht for the dollor and all the banks in thailand follow bkk bank just compare yahoo to bkk bank the difference is about 0. 20 or 30 example bkk bank pays 36.31 yahoo finacial market will pay 36.80 big difference and unles you are in currentcy exchange business your stuck with bkk bank prices USA buys more consumer goods than any 2 countries in the world there exporting is very low most of the products made in the usa are sold in the usa the big exporting from the usa is weapons of mass destruction better know as WMD along with the UK and Russia we don't even make our auto mobiles in the USA they are assembled in Canada & mexico it the Japenese auto makers that have auto plants in the US because they sell more cars there any were in the world

It use to be the thai baht was raised in dec. to screw the tourist visitor and give them less for there money and after tourist season the baht would slowly drop to around 42 to 1 usd just look we had a coup and the USA stop funding the Thai military and yet the thai baht continue to grow wake up and smell the scam some time next year the baht will drop to about 40 or maybe go as low as 50 and all the currentcy the banks that buy currentcy from USA UK & the Euro will profit largely when they start buying back the thai baht they sold for 35 or 36 to the usd so takes some advice do not buy thai baht now except to live on save your money in your own country and wait out the SCAM just remember this I am white boy from Brooklyn N.Y and I am 69 yrs old I saw it all heard it all like the lies my gov. told the world about the Kennedy killing and the war in IRAQ another lie don't trust goverments or banks they are in bed together AMEN

[aznyron]

OH I just want to ad to my remarks why is it Taiwan who exports more goods to the USA than Thailand Cambodia Laos Malaysia Indon. Sinapore and Burma combined and yet the thai dollor is stronger than the TWD

[HOOD Robin]

The only product which I know the price over 5 years is the bread "made fresh daily since 1982" (i don't know the brand name, it's written in Thai ).

It was at 22b on June 2001, and it reached 27b about 5 years later.

That's a yearly inflation of 4.2% ...

I also remember a few hotel prices, but the prices variations can't be caused only by inflation.

If anyone remembers the prices of something from everyday life, I'd be curious to see what was its evolution on the last 5 years.

Euuuhh.... Maybe the bargirl's fine.... ?

[wolfmanjack]

The only product which I know the price over 5 years is the bread "made fresh daily since 1982" (i don't know the brand name, it's written in Thai ).

It was at 22b on June 2001, and it reached 27b about 5 years later.

That's a yearly inflation of 4.2% ...

I also remember a few hotel prices, but the prices variations can't be caused only by inflation.

If anyone remembers the prices of something from everyday life, I'd be curious to see what was its evolution on the last 5 years.

pork Loin was 75 baht now it is 100 baht at th market.