Thailand rebuffs railway deal with China

[Ulic]

The commissions weren't going to be to their liking

I am guessing that like zero baht tourism this was going to be zero Yuan commissions

with all kickbacks staying in China and reserved for Chinese big wigs.

[Tomtomtom69]

Land rights are big deal for the Thais, and non negotiable I would imagine. The whole "only Thais can own land" thing historically stemmed from fear of a Chinese takeover of the country. Also, if my memory serves me correctly, the majority population in BKK was at one time Chinese, not Thai, which I found, well, surprising.

Yes, this is correct and I think that nowadays more than at anytime in the past this is an even bigger concern due to the large numbers of increasingly wealthy Chinese looking to invest outside of the country. Traditionally many Chinese may have settled in Thailand, especially Bangkok and the Chao Phraya Delta, but intermarriage with Thais, assimilation and through citizenship the problem of Chinese settlers has been resolved. On the other hand, if the land laws were ever changed, you would have an influx of Chinese buying up land and taking it away from Thais, which would probably lead to serious conflict. I think that given the weak rule of law, it would also complicate matters related to purchasing/sale and inheritance of land where foreigners are involved and could also lead to serious problems.

I would welcome a liberalization of the rules for foreigners married to Thais, who are permanent residents or some other relatively stringent criteria though, but it would have to be policed very carefully because even now there are so many ways around the law, such as using Thai nominees, that it's hard for the Land Department to keep track of everything. Still, I doubt it will happen for a long time and not until the country becomes much more developed and there is proper rule of law. That could take decades.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

The real reason for the Chinese not being chosen is easy. They want the land at stations and next to the railway lines. Some people owes gratitude to certain businessmen for putting them into power and can't give away land as this will be pay back for past favors. Can you even think about these stations not having a 711 ?

[retarius]

At ;east there is a consistency with farangs not being able to own land.

[JAG]

Good to see Thailand not biting on the easy bait. This administration looked like it was cozying up to China, but Prayut has a few strategic moves he learned as a General. Playing the Japan card is smart, as is bringing back in other counterbalancing powers like the US.

In the end, there will perhaps be some agreement, though it will take longer, and the cards will not be stacked in China's favor on the 2nd go around.

I agree with you 100%. At first it looked a bit suspicious, but now it's clear that Thailand is not in any way trying to court the Chinese more than in the past just because it has lost some western political support. It's more a case of counterbalancing different world powers as Thailand has always done. Perhaps a reason why Thailand is mainland South-East Asia's only country not to have been colonized (though it did lose substantial parts of it's territory to the colonial powers) and to this day remains a proud and relatively strong independent nation, which, despite it's faults continues to have mainland SEA's largest economy and it's most developed country, by a large margin, with the exception of Malaysia and Singapore of course.

I don't want to be pedantic, but if Malaysia and Singapore are more developed than Thailand (they are) then it's hardly South East Asia's most developed country - by any margin!

[Shaunduhpostman]

There was an article I saw somewhere on how the bullet trains within China are being used to rush troops to remote areas where there are "problems." I don't know how that would work, seems like there might not be enough trains to make that very efficient, but who knows.

It always has seemed a bit worrisome how easy a rail system built by and sponsered by the Chinese would make things for a Chinese occupation of Thailand, perhaps that is being a bit paranoiac, but it doesn't seem out of the question that they would use such rail system as a spring board for invasion if they saw fit.

It was also interesting, I thought, that a year ago or so there was this negotiation over whether Chinese staff and security would run the lines in Thailand. Not good, and for once Thailand did not do the wrong thing and cave into that and they stood their ground if i can recall and said they would accept nothing like that. I don't think Thailand should run a rail system either, as soon as the novelty wears off they stop taking responsibility for the line and we'll see what happens with the line there is now, derailments galore and no interest in fixing any of it. They need a better conventional rail system, not bullet trains.

[chowny77]

The Chinese are trying to screw the Thais??? Well i never, and the Thai Govt have just realized this??

Most people could have told them that 2 years ago before wasting that time.

Exactly. However, the Thais are at least a little smarter than China's South-East Asian lapdog, Laos. That country has virtually already turned into an economic colony of China, with Lao citizens who protest their eviction from their homes because a Chinese investor wants to build something being taken away and never heard from again. Large agricultural concessions and at least one major casino, and Chinese writing all over the place are evidence of this.

In parts of Northern Laos, the problem of Chinese investment and illegal immigration is so significant that not only does it look like you're already in China, but you can't get anything done if you don't speak Chinese! That means Lao living in their own country, can't order food, can't check into a hotel without knowing Chinese, in their own country! This is true in parts of Udomxai, Luang Nam Tha and especially Phongsali provinces. Also in Bokeo at the Kings Roman casino where most gamblers are Chinese and everything including restaurant menus, the currency, the timezone and even the mobile/cellular networks are all Chinese!

The Thais are right not to want too much Chinese influence in their country, because these sorts of deals always have strings attached, with the Chinese ultimately receiving all the spoils, while the host country loses out.

The Lao for their part did at least delay the construction of the part of the railway that would be going through their country by a few years after they realized the original deal would be tantamount to China taking away a large chunk of their territory. The deal would have had China getting exclusive rights for mining, warehousing, and any other development 5km on either side of the railway line, which is supposed to be 421km long.

More recently, there have been reports that the project is going ahead, with constructing starting on the Lao side now, possibly in early anticipation of the Thais agreeing to it last year. It could be however that it has quietly stopped since a railway line to landlocked Vientiane would end up being a white elephant project for China. However, perhaps the Chinese are so sneaky that they think that the Thais may still change their minds again and thus will go ahead with the Lao construction anyway, on the off chance that perhaps the Thai side will eventually agree by the time construction is nearly finished, or when a new government comes into power? At least they would be able to exploit Lao minerals more easily while shipping in hundreds of thousands of otherwise unemployed workers, many of whom will stay after construction has finished and open up Chinese shops rather than going back home.

Another alternative which could eventuate if access to the sea is really the main reason for building this line (which I think it is) they could route the line through Laos to go down to Cambodia, ending up at Sihanoukville. Since Cambodia is China's second main lapdog in SE Asia, this wouldn't be difficult to do either, as it would face almost no political opposition, though the line would become a lot longer than the original one through Thailand, but that would at least be a compromise solution.

Note that while this hasn't been proposed, but I'm fairly sure it's at least been considered as an alternative. Of course by the time that happens, there's always a chance Cambodia might wake up and realize what China's true intentions are and abandon any such project, as Myanmar has done in recent years after many decades of strong political support and Chinese investment that has exploited Burmese natural resources with little of the money flowing back to Myanmar's citizens. Of course in Myanmar's case it was abandoning it's old isolationist policy and opening up to the west that resulted in these changes.

The Chinese are pretty much like parasites. Take what they want and then move on the next host (country). They are already raping Africa of its natural resources.

[JAG]

There was an article I saw somewhere on how the bullet trains within China are being used to rush troops to remote areas where there are "problems." I don't know how that would work, seems like there might not be enough trains to make that very efficient, but who knows.

It always has seemed a bit worrisome how easy a rail system built by and sponsered by the Chinese would make things for a Chinese occupation of Thailand, perhaps that is being a bit paranoiac, but it doesn't seem out of the question that they would use such rail system as a spring board for invasion if they saw fit.

It was also interesting, I thought, that a year ago or so there was this negotiation over whether Chinese staff and security would run the lines in Thailand. Not good, and for once Thailand did not do the wrong thing and cave into that and they stood their ground if i can recall and said they would accept nothing like that. I don't think Thailand should run a rail system either, as soon as the novelty wears off they stop taking responsibility for the line and we'll see what happens with the line there is now, derailments galore and no interest in fixing any of it. They need a better conventional rail system, not bullet trains.

You would need an awful lot of troops to secure your high speed railway before you could use it to rush more troops to trouble spots!

I recently did a couple of long journeys on the existing system, and was surprised at how much the infrastructure of it had been improved

Edited May 5, 2016 by JAG

[ThaiKneeTim]

China does not give out freebies , Thailand you will pay a heavy price

Show me a country that does!

We all know that there's no such thing as a free lunch.

[ThaiKneeTim]

The Chinese are trying to screw the Thais??? Well i never, and the Thai Govt have just realized this??

Most people could have told them that 2 years ago before wasting that time.

Exactly. However, the Thais are at least a little smarter than China's South-East Asian lapdog, Laos. That country has virtually already turned into an economic colony of China, with Lao citizens who protest their eviction from their homes because a Chinese investor wants to build something being taken away and never heard from again. Large agricultural concessions and at least one major casino, and Chinese writing all over the place are evidence of this.

In parts of Northern Laos, the problem of Chinese investment and illegal immigration is so significant that not only does it look like you're already in China, but you can't get anything done if you don't speak Chinese! That means Lao living in their own country, can't order food, can't check into a hotel without knowing Chinese, in their own country! This is true in parts of Udomxai, Luang Nam Tha and especially Phongsali provinces. Also in Bokeo at the Kings Roman casino where most gamblers are Chinese and everything including restaurant menus, the currency, the timezone and even the mobile/cellular networks are all Chinese!

The Thais are right not to want too much Chinese influence in their country, because these sorts of deals always have strings attached, with the Chinese ultimately receiving all the spoils, while the host country loses out.

The Lao for their part did at least delay the construction of the part of the railway that would be going through their country by a few years after they realized the original deal would be tantamount to China taking away a large chunk of their territory. The deal would have had China getting exclusive rights for mining, warehousing, and any other development 5km on either side of the railway line, which is supposed to be 421km long.

More recently, there have been reports that the project is going ahead, with constructing starting on the Lao side now, possibly in early anticipation of the Thais agreeing to it last year. It could be however that it has quietly stopped since a railway line to landlocked Vientiane would end up being a white elephant project for China. However, perhaps the Chinese are so sneaky that they think that the Thais may still change their minds again and thus will go ahead with the Lao construction anyway, on the off chance that perhaps the Thai side will eventually agree by the time construction is nearly finished, or when a new government comes into power? At least they would be able to exploit Lao minerals more easily while shipping in hundreds of thousands of otherwise unemployed workers, many of whom will stay after construction has finished and open up Chinese shops rather than going back home.

Another alternative which could eventuate if access to the sea is really the main reason for building this line (which I think it is) they could route the line through Laos to go down to Cambodia, ending up at Sihanoukville. Since Cambodia is China's second main lapdog in SE Asia, this wouldn't be difficult to do either, as it would face almost no political opposition, though the line would become a lot longer than the original one through Thailand, but that would at least be a compromise solution.

Note that while this hasn't been proposed, but I'm fairly sure it's at least been considered as an alternative. Of course by the time that happens, there's always a chance Cambodia might wake up and realize what China's true intentions are and abandon any such project, as Myanmar has done in recent years after many decades of strong political support and Chinese investment that has exploited Burmese natural resources with little of the money flowing back to Myanmar's citizens. Of course in Myanmar's case it was abandoning it's old isolationist policy and opening up to the west that resulted in these changes.

The Chinese are pretty much like parasites. Take what they want and then move on the next host (country). They are already raping Africa of its natural resources.

And of course that wasn't the purpose of the British Empire!