Major Tourism Drop?

[Soju]

The OP mentions a drop in tourists in Chiang Mai. After the tsunami, many tourists to Thailand avoided going to Phuket and other areas affected by the tsunami and went to Chiang Mai instead. Now the tsunami has been all but forgotten by most tourists and they are returning in mass to the beaches, thus not so many to Chiang Mai. That's my opinion, and don't think the coup will have any noticeable effect on the tourist season. The strengthening Baht may play a minor role, especially for Americans or others who are experiencing a weak local currency.

If the coup has had no effect, how do you explain the drastic drop in hit directly after?

Coincidence?

I said I don't expect it will (in the future) have a noticeable effect on the (upcoming) tourist season. It probably did have some effect on the numbers immediately after the event. The coup is now a non-event for anyone planning a vacation. There may have been some people who already made alternate plans due to the coup, but as I say I think those numbers will not be noticeable when compared to the total tourists numbers. I think the reshuffling of destinations within Thailand due to the tsunami (Phuket vs. Chiang Mai for example) is one of the most significant factors this tourist season. Of course my guess probably isn't any better than anyone else's, but that's just my feeling based on the people I talk to.

[womble]

It's only one business and one businesses website, but the me it points to many people not considering Thailand as a tourist destination directly after the coup, but now that confidence starting to return.

I think by Dec 15 - 20, things will be just the same as they are any other high season.

Extremely busy!

[terry57]

I wouldn't count too much on what this or that business owner might say concerning how well his business is doing. If it's doing well: better tone down the success as not to encourage potential competition. If it's not doing well: better make it appear as a success as to encourage potential buyers.

That might be true if we were using our real names or announcing the name of our businesses, but virtually no one is.

My business is doing fine!

your business is doing fine because your a good human being mr G and good luck to you.

cheers

[otherstuff1957]

I haven't done any hard research on this issue, but here are a couple of thoughts:

A year ago the bars changed their closing time from 2am to midnight or 1am. A lot of tourists from last year probably remember being herded out of the bars/nightclubs/discos at closing time last year and are going somewhere else this year.

The demographics of tourism are changing. I noticed that BKK is full of Arab, Indian and Chinese tourists recently. They probably will not be frequenting the same establishments that Farangs do and so the Farang oriented bars, restaurants etc... may not reflect the actual numbers of tourtist arrivals.

[terry57]

the backpacker scene is full as usual and the thais are making a killing.

thing is,

backpackers dont tend to frequent sukumvit p4p establishments of a certain calibre, so they wont be scene over there spending there money.

also they got there own beautiful women they have picked up on there travels.

[slightly edited by Meadish. ]

[Noel]

the backpacker scene is full as usual and the thais are making a killing.

thing is,

backpackers dont tend to frequent sukumvit p4p establishments of a certain calibre, so they wont be scene over there spending there money.

also they got there own beautiful women they have picked up on there travels.

[slightly edited by Meadish. ]

Hmmm, not a dog lover then, Mr Heinz...?

[chiang mai]

The OP mentions a drop in tourists in Chiang Mai. After the tsunami, many tourists to Thailand avoided going to Phuket and other areas affected by the tsunami and went to Chiang Mai instead. Now the tsunami has been all but forgotten by most tourists and they are returning in mass to the beaches, thus not so many to Chiang Mai. That's my opinion, and don't think the coup will have any noticeable effect on the tourist season. The strengthening Baht may play a minor role, especially for Americans or others who are experiencing a weak local currency.

I think there are a number of factors to consider, the first is that the profile of tourists entering Thailand has changed over the last few years. The number of tourists arriving from China and Korea has increased and these tourists do not frequent the same places as western tourists - I have in mind here the bar beers, western food establishments and the like. You only have to wander Soi's 7 & 8 in Pattaya and talk to staff to appreciate this and then to see the hoards of Chinese tourists who are up at the crack of dawn on the way to their day trips to the islands. Similarly in Chiang Mai the western oriented joints are near empty yet all the hotels and flights to Chiang Mai are nearly fully booked.

Secondly, currency exchange rates will spur or deter visitors from any given country as will the economic outlook for that country. For me at least the messages are very clear. The tourist industry here is starting to be driven by China's growth and secondly, if you offer tourist related services you had best be in the mode of switching your target market, if you haven't already done so.

[Buckwheat]

If the coup has had no effect, how do you explain the drastic drop in hit directly after?

Coincidence?

I would have thought hits would have increased after the coup, to try to assess the situation in Thailand.

The hits on my site increased quite significantly after the coup...as well as receiving an increased amount of emails from all over asking what was going on inside that was not being reported outside.

Edited November 23, 2006 by Buckwheat

[h5n1]

2007 will see a perfect storm -but it will come after high season. the heat coupled with high x-rates for us/oz, souring not only of visa situation for living but confusion about even coming-going. add to this the coup and the fact that they will not have a constitution nor govt in place after one year which will drag down markets. finally, as tourists go and tourism thailand is of the erroneous belief that people want to come year after year. unless they are the new breed of retirees, sex tourists or poor europeans - this is not the case. finally, the general rudeness on every level by thais toward 'farang'. i think there will come a time nottoo distant and people will just decide NOT to go to thailand.

this will be devastating becasue thailand stupidly has built the entire nation on the back of one industry and made the middle class and poor nothing more than mere servants.

tat always reports numbers (by millions) increase each yr. pure lies.

the day WILL come...personally, i only need a lesser of two evils to get me packed up. im done with thailand and thai govt.

i do agree with cmai though...the numbers incresing are from east asia (taiwan/korea/china). backpackers will always come and go, this is asia and bkk is the hub of backpacking. thailand still offers good value - but nothing more - thailand has some nice beaches, 3 nice khmer temples and a few natl parks. it has totally ruined itself. at one time it was 1-stop asia. now is practically a scam.

ps: the bar closing/alcohol rules for TOURISTS and FOREIGNERS are positively draconian.

Edited November 23, 2006 by h5n1

[Nam Kao]

US will slip into a recession in 07, dragging the ball of wax down with it

Not looking good

[xbusman]

Currently visiting the US for a week or two. Business is very slow, real estate bubble has burst in a bad way, I think the US is in for some rough waters soon. Always has a very negative effect on exporting countries, could be some interesting times ahead.

[The Skipper]

I was in the tour business for a few years.

I will say, Thailand is gaining a reputation for ripoffs and unfriendly attitudes toward "The Farang".

"The Farang" is fair game, seems to be the official policy.

A majority of the tourists, especially, the novice traveler or first timers to Thailand feel that they were cheated, scammed, every step of the way during their trip here.

The tourist areas are packed with scammers and nothing is done. Literally, swarms of cheaters approaching the gullible all day long, year after year. Gets worse every year.

Go to any hotel lobby, interview people checking out. About 100% will tell you all about it.

About 5 million people arrive here every year as "first timers". Not clued up to the scams untill too late.

The word is getting out.

What does the TAT do about it? Nothing.

In fact, the biggest scam of all is the Jewelry Scam. Some at the TAT are in on that one, I think.

On my last international flight into Thailand, the TAT had a welcome film, nothing about tourist ripoffs or warnings.

In fact they were encouraging the purchase of Gemstones!

No kidding.

Actually encouraging people to go look for Gems. Unbelievable!!

Edited November 24, 2006 by The Skipper

[Ulysses G.]

I was in the tour business for a few years.

I will say, Thailand is gaining a reputation for ripoffs and unfriendly attitudes toward "The Farang".

"The Farang" is fair game, seems to be the official policy.

A majority of the tourists, especially, the novice traveler or first timers to Thailand feel that they were cheated, scammed, every step of the way during their trip here.

The tourist areas are packed with scammers and nothing is done. Literally, swarms of cheaters approaching the gullible all day long, year after year. Gets worse every year.

Go to any hotel lobby, interview people checking out. About 100% will tell you all about it.

About 5 million people arrive here every year as "first timers". Not clued up to the scams untill too late.

The word is getting out.

What does the TAT do about it? Nothing.

In fact, the biggest scam of all is the Jewelry Scam. Some at the TAT are in on that one, I think.

The sky is falling. The sky is falling!

I've heard this malarky ever since I got here, and it never comes true.

[cdnvic]

The sky is falling. The sky is falling!

I've heard this malarky ever since I got here, and it never comes true.

You're forgetting the time they changed the bar closing times and everyone went to Cambodia.

[Rajah]

The coup is long forgotten, there is nothing in the Western newspapers about it or Thailand in general. If tourist business drops, there have to be other reasons, than political.

[Galong]

A tour operator friend of mine told me recently that this will be one of Thailand's busiest ever Novembers. The coup had hardly any effect at all on tourist numbers.

Your friend is obviously nuts. There is not a single person I know in retail, entertainment or other tourist related trade that is not complaining about lack of tourists and customers..

Nuts? You haven't asked the right people. My tour company is having a banner November. December is close to fully booked too. Next year's bookings are coming in steadily. I guess I'm nuts, eh

Perhaps the tour operators who rely on mass tourism (airplanes full of cheap charlies) are suffering. Good, the environment can't handle a massive onslaught anyway.

Educated/wealthy tourists will most likely always travel and they tend to see through the things that keep the thundering masses at bay... such as the bloodless coup (if that is part of the reason) or the violence in the South... OK, where is it safe anywhere these days.

The tsunami year didn't affect my business, nor did the coup. Maybe I'm just lucky.

[tropo]

The tsunami year didn't affect my business, nor did the coup. Maybe I'm just lucky.

You probably weren't running a business in Phuket then? Without knowing the exact nature of your business it's impossible to say whether it's luck, good management, or just being in the right place at the right time.

In every economic downturn, in every depression and even in war there are always plenty of people who thrive.

Edited November 24, 2006 by tropo

[Ulysses G.]

The tsunami year didn't affect my business, nor did the coup. Maybe I'm just lucky.

You probably weren't running a business in Phuket then? Without knowing the exact nature of your business it's impossible to say whether it's luck, good management, or just being in the right place at the right time.

In every economic downturn, in every depression and even in war there are always plenty of people who thrive.

I've asked all the people in Chiang Mai that I know with successful tourist-oriented businesses how they are doing compared to other years and they all say pretty much the same.

We get the same threads every year and the people with good, well-established businessses never have a problem. It is the copycats who can't think up something new and needed who just copy other places that already have the saturated the market and people who try to run businesses that they have no love for, or skills at, that keep whinging about how terrible it is "this year".

Edited November 24, 2006 by Ulysses G.

[HenryB]

Currently visiting the US for a week or two. Business is very slow, real estate bubble has burst in a bad way, I think the US is in for some rough waters soon. Always has a very negative effect on exporting countries, could be some interesting times ahead.

You are right things are so bad in America Bush shall sell the country to the Mexicans or Nigerians

However I expect 20 million Americans the one with money shall move to Pakistan

[Galong]

The tsunami year didn't affect my business, nor did the coup. Maybe I'm just lucky.

You probably weren't running a business in Phuket then? Without knowing the exact nature of your business it's impossible to say whether it's luck, good management, or just being in the right place at the right time.

In every economic downturn, in every depression and even in war there are always plenty of people who thrive.

Yep, I was running a business based in Phuket. I run high-end nature tours. I attribute it to the fact that the type of tourists that are drawn to my type of tour aren't influenced by the media and they figured out that NOT visiting Thailand after the tsunami was the wrong thing to do. Many of them told me that that was the reason why they didn't cancel their vacation in southern Thailand.

I reckon I'm lucky then...

[Scott]

I would think there should be numbers available from the gov't on this matter. That should help settle the problem. Should also answer the question as to where the tourists are coming from.

[Galong]

I would think there should be numbers available from the gov't on this matter. That should help settle the problem. Should also answer the question as to where the tourists are coming from.

I don't think it's a matter of where they're coming from, but a matter of how full the planes are.

Having said that, most of my clients are from North America... for some reason.

[steveromagnino]

I would think there should be numbers available from the gov't on this matter. That should help settle the problem. Should also answer the question as to where the tourists are coming from.

there are numbers.

13.4m expected this year (prediction) actual numbers come after the fact about a quarter in arrears. Broken down by nationality; importantly have to take into account that air arrivals and land arrivals are both substantial numbers; for certain land arrivals there are clear indications of reasons for visit other than tourism to say Phuket (e..g. by land arrivals from Cambodia of Cambodians; I refuse to believe they are about to go and stay in Dusit at Phuket for instance).

For certain chip on shoulder carrying posters, numbers tend to go against whatever convoluted point they are trying to make for the 1000th time, and are therefore ignored. If you want the numbers yourself, get them from TAT. They put out a book on this stuff, about 6 months in arrears. Not a bad read.

[terry57]

give it a miss mate,

BTW, where you living ? up in udon frigging thani somewere. ?

i suggest you get your back bottom over to rambuttri st and koh san road.

its frigging chock A block mate, and the thais are killing the pig.

cheers mate.

[unbiasbob]

I am noticing that it is pretty quiet on Sukhumvit this year and a massive police presence as well. My gut tells me that tourism is down big time this year

[Disco]

Well, I've been trying for the last week to book a 5 star hotel in Phuket for a week over NY and everything is fully booked at about 3 times the usual rates......

If anyone knows of a good hotel in Phuket that is still available for booking, please let me know

Thx

[steveromagnino]

I am noticing that it is pretty quiet on Sukhumvit this year and a massive police presence as well. My gut tells me that tourism is down big time this year

ah yes, the famed gut comment.

Did you know that your gut has the most nerve connections in the body?

now I know some of you have looked up the information on the net, or in a book, and I know it says that your brain has the most nerve connections.

But that is because you went to wrong source. You asked a book or the internet. When you should have asked your gut.

Better to look at the TAT numbers....and what you may learn is YES there are many reasons why the number of farang hanging out in the Sukhumvit farang ghetto might indeed by down; but in all likelihood, tourist numbers in 2006 are going to top 2005 in terms of arrivals.

For every American or British person not visiting anymore since they started clamping down nightclubs at 1am/2am (or so I would be lead to believe, reading the threats of leaving on almost every english language website about Thailand) there is a replacement Chinese/Korean/Indian/Middle eastern tourist coming in their place and probably spending more per day anyway (but perhaps not staying as long, although I would be willing to investigate it as i simply don't know); and at least some of these are probably not staying in the Sukhumvit.

Plenty of other explanations as well; weather, relative appeal of clubs; issue of coup keeping people out of the streets...who knows.

Edited November 24, 2006 by steveromagnino

[King Dong]

I was down khao sarn the other night @ 9pm, empty..

Nana/Sukhumvit area seems very quiet..

And i've just got an email from a online flight booking website offering LHR -> BKK return for GBP399 right up until mid december (direct with THAI btw)

Plus theres still cheap seats on internal flights with the lowest rate right upto a few days before departure..

Everywhere seems to have been pretty much empty since the coup, but it looks like its going to be a busier xmas/ny than last year

[Cyberstar]

So fewer tourists (or is it rather farlangs?) on Kao San and lower Sukkhumvit - almost everywhere else: business as usual or even better. Interesting! ... Could it be that some particular areas in Pattaya also is void of farlangs?

[The Skipper]

I was in the tour business for a few years.

I will say, Thailand is gaining a reputation for ripoffs and unfriendly attitudes toward "The Farang".

"The Farang" is fair game, seems to be the official policy.

A majority of the tourists, especially, the novice traveler or first timers to Thailand feel that they were cheated, scammed, every step of the way during their trip here.

The tourist areas are packed with scammers and nothing is done. Literally, swarms of cheaters approaching the gullible all day long, year after year. Gets worse every year.

Go to any hotel lobby, interview people checking out. About 100% will tell you all about it.

About 5 million people arrive here every year as "first timers". Not clued up to the scams untill too late.

The word is getting out.

What does the TAT do about it? Nothing.

In fact, the biggest scam of all is the Jewelry Scam. Some at the TAT are in on that one, I think.

The sky is falling. The sky is falling!

I've heard this malarky ever since I got here, and it never comes true.

The sky is falling?

Go re-read my post and try a little comprehension this time.

5 million tourists walk away each year, telling their friends and family that the place is a ripoff.

The TAT does nothing.

That's all I said.

Will it affect Tourist arrivals?

You tell me.