Unlikely path for foes hoping to dump Trump at convention

[webfact]

Unlikely path for foes hoping to dump Trump at convention
By ALAN FRAM

WASHINGTON (AP) — It's exceedingly improbable, but not completely farfetched: Dismayed Republicans could still dump Donald Trump and find a different presidential nominee at their national convention next month.

Once viewed as a political joke, the blunt-spoken billionaire has stormed to the cusp of becoming the GOP nominee. He has more than enough delegates to be formally anointed at the party's gathering in Cleveland.

But Trump's recent disparagement of a judge, claiming he was incapable of impartially hearing a Trump lawsuit because he is Mexican-American, has triggered talk of replacing Trump. Republicans were already divided over his past comments about Hispanics, women and others, and some leaders like House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., are backing Trump but labeling his remark "racist."

Here's the scenario for derailing Trump and why it's unlikely — at least now:


THE MATH

Trump has 1,542 delegates, according to The Associated Press' count, including 1,447 required by current GOP rules to vote for him at the convention. That's well above the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination and more than double the 559 of his nearest rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Measured another way, Trump has amassed 13.4 million votes in primaries, well above Cruz' 7.7 million.

Those numbers add up to one word: Winner.

THE PROBLEM

Some Republicans think Trump can't win and will drag down the party's congressional and other candidates with him. Senate control, and less likely the House, are at also stake in November's election.

Such talk is limited, at least publicly. But it's out there.

Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., said this week that Trump's denigration of the judge "might spur" talk of finding a different nominee. He noted that Trump's 70th birthday is approaching and said, "It's tough to change. And he certainly hasn't shown any signs that he's going to."

"What does Trump have to do or say for the party to disassociate itself from him?" asked Rory Cooper, senior adviser to the Never Trump political committee.

And conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt said on his show that Trump should be dropped because "the plane is headed toward the mountain."

THE CURE

One way to stop someone from winning a game is to change the rules.

Mechanically, if not politically, that's possible in Cleveland next month. The procedures governing the convention will be whatever a majority of its 2,472 delegates approve.

Current rules, which they seem likely to adopt, give the nomination to whoever wins a majority of their votes.

GOP rules experts say that to block Trump, one option is to set a higher threshold than he currently can reach, such as requiring a two-thirds margin.

That would only be needed for the first ballot. If no candidate wins the nomination by then, most delegates are free to vote for anyone in the second and succeeding rounds of voting.

Another option: Let all delegates immediately support whoever they'd like.

Though it's widely disputed, some say current rules already let delegates support whomever they please. That would mean no changes would be needed.

"The primaries are baloney" and award candidates "bragging rights," not committed delegates, said Curly Haugland of North Dakota, a member of the Republican National Committee.

THE PROBLEM WITH BLOCKING TRUMP

As torn as the GOP is, many believe booting him is politically unrealistic because it would intensify the party's rifts and is probably impossible.

"It's too late," said Trump detractor and former presidential contender Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. James Bopp Jr., an Indiana convention delegate and rules expert, says disregarding Trump's primary victory and naming a different nominee would mean "the destruction of the Republican Party."

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said talk of ditching Trump at the convention was a "Washington fantasy" that would look like the party was "trying to undo the will of the Republican electorate" and pull off "some sort of coup."

BUT WAIT

If Trump has a majority of delegates, does he really have to worry about rules changes that could deny him the nomination?

Probably not. But maybe.

That's because by party bylaws, delegates are free to vote however they want on the rules, platform and challenges to delegates' credentials. The only thing most must do is support the candidate they are pledged to, and only on the first round of votes.

The danger for Trump: Many of his delegates — the numbers are unclear — actually prefer Cruz or perhaps other alternatives. If they're persuaded to do so, perhaps by additional intemperate Trump comments, they can vote for rules changes that would open the door for a replacement.

But many say Trump has the delegates needed to prevail.

"It's just not going to happen," said Randy Evans, a GOP national committeeman from Georgia.

Trump aides did not respond to emails and phone messages requesting comment.

Asked Thursday if he was open to the convention picking a different candidate than Trump, Cruz said, "I'm going to leave political punditry to the people who get paid to do it."

Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said the senator did not favor a challenge to Trump, saying, "The voters made their decision."


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-06-10

[JakeSully]

LOL why would we want to dump Trump.. he guarantees his sides losses come November!

This is like letting a dog play goalkeeper against Real Madrid.. sure he can bark and bite but he won't make a difference in the eventual scoreline.

[lungbing]

It's things like this that are starting to annoy the ordinary voter and cause them to vote for people like Trump. The Republican voters of America have overwhelmingly selected Trump, but now a few big wigs in Washington, who haven't spoken to an ordinary voter in twenty years, decide Trump's not the man they want. Play around like that and next time you might a real extremist selected.

[NovaBlue05]

The only "path" for the GOP is to hope Bernie goes rogue, tells the Obama/Clinton crime syndicate to <deleted> off and runs Independent.

Then they can run another candidate of their choice.

[arjunadawn]

There is a reason republican voters despise republican reps.

[jacksam]

The whole political system of USA brings daily entertainment to the rest of the world. Really is crazy.

[NovaBlue05]

The whole political system of USA brings daily entertainment to the rest of the world. Really is crazy.

Well....It's "in your face" crazy this time around! Maybe it's a good sign. Maybe, like an addict, the US needs to hit rock bottom before it can get better.

Of course it has to survive hitting rock bottom first.

[boomerangutang]

Keep Trump. More Republican rednecks voters voted for him than voted for the other Rep contenders. I have an American friend who thinks that Carson was the best choice. If the Rep primary was held nationwide in late November '15, Carson would be your guy, ha ha ha ha. Rep voters had 17 choices to start with, and whittled it down to Trump, warts and all. He's da One. Reps didn't want anyone reasonable, like Kasich, No, they wanted the guy with the most outlandish razzamatazz flip flopping on the high wire while blowing flaming farts out his you-know-what.

No way can you deprive us reasonable people the enjoyment of seeing Trump shot out of the sky like a Hindenburg Blimp hit by 60 close range shotgun blasts ....on November 8th.

[Berkshire]

Just saw Mitt Romney talking about Trump on CNN with Wolf Blitzer. A very strong anti-Trump position from the most recent Republican Presidential nominee. Romney made a lot of good points, including Trump's racism, misogyny, bigotry, etc. The big one was Trump refusing to release his tax returns. I agree that there is a bombshell in Trump's tax returns that will literally finish him. That's why the public will never see it.

[Boon Mee]

^

Non starters - every one.

Romney is a loser and commands absolutely no respect.

[Berkshire]

^

Non starters - every one.

Romney is a loser and commands absolutely no respect.

The thing is, millions of Americans voted for him last time. They may just listen to him.

[boomerangutang]

^

Non starters - every one.

Romney is a loser and commands absolutely no respect.

The thing is, millions of Americans voted for him last time. They may just listen to him.

Plus many folks like Boon Mee were rooting vigorously for Romney to topple Obama, just four years ago. How quick they jump ship on a whim and a fancy. They're like Trump himself, in regard to Trump's adherence to marriage vows. As soon as a younger gal with a bubbly butt strolls by, they dump the wife and go striding off to court newer model. Same 8 years ago, when they were all rooting for McCain/Palin. Now they think McCain isn't a war hero, because Trump told them to think that way. If McCain says he doesn't like Trump, then Trump supporters will put down McCain also. That's what cult followers do.

[Ulic]

Trump is a moderate with no sense of political correctness and a huge ego.

As qualified as any candidate in either party. That is the way I see it. The people

have chosen both Trump and HRC (in spite of what Bernie thinks). Lets get

on with the campaign and see how it shakes out.

[Doc46]

Time will tell,,,Let the normal people choose ,they are the ones who got to gain / lose the most,,,,and you will see Trump will win with a Landslide or two.

[elgordo38]

^

Non starters - every one.

Romney is a loser and commands absolutely no respect.

The thing is, millions of Americans voted for him last time. They may just listen to him.

Plus many folks like Boon Mee were rooting vigorously for Romney to topple Obama, just four years ago. How quick they jump ship on a whim and a fancy. They're like Trump himself, in regard to Trump's adherence to marriage vows. As soon as a younger gal with a bubbly butt strolls by, they dump the wife and go striding off to court newer model. Same 8 years ago, when they were all rooting for McCain/Palin. Now they think McCain isn't a war hero, because Trump told them to think that way. If McCain says he doesn't like Trump, then Trump supporters will put down McCain also. That's what cult followers do.

The words "swift boats" comes to mind

[elgordo38]

Trump is a moderate with no sense of political correctness and a huge ego.

As qualified as any candidate in either party. That is the way I see it. The people

have chosen both Trump and HRC (in spite of what Bernie thinks). Lets get

on with the campaign and see how it shakes out.

People find Trump amusing at the moment but November is a ways off lets see if all the hype and BS prevails. You can fool some of the people some of the time and well you know the rest.

[boomerangutang]

Time will tell,,,Let the normal people choose ,they are the ones who got to gain / lose the most,,,,and you will see Trump will win with a Landslide or two.

His landslide has already started. Just a week or so after some prominent Republicans reluctantly pledged their support, they're already bailing off the Trumpster's 3-wooden-wheel hay wagon, and the oxen that are pulling it (Trump's handlers) are ready to stroll off into a field of alfalfa. A landslide defeat for Trump is shaping up. It starts with a few loose pebbles, and then..........

Speaking of oxen pulling Trump's rickety wagon, ....will they even get paid? Trump is renown for shirking out from paying people. He waits 'til they've finished the job, then comes up with some soggy excuse for not paying. When the jilted workers say;, "we'll see you in court!" Trump smirks, knowing he can outspend any of the little guys on litigation and continuances. Even if Trump loses in court (and he's lost many times), it's certain the big orange man will insist on a signed statement forcing the winner to not mention anything about the case. That's happened every time, and is why we only hear about the thousands of Trump losses, but we don't hear details of repercussions.

[Boon Mee]

There were legions of folks like Peggy Joseph out there during the last two elections - the hard-core uninformed voter who put Obama in office:

To wit:

[boomerangutang]

Re; the video above posted by Boon Me. What's the gist? Did she expect Obama to personally pay her mortgage? That's just weird. Who in America expects the Prez to pay their mortgage? She ends by saying America is great. Obama's been in the driver's seat for 7.5 yrs, so one would assume some of that greatness can be attributed to his leadership. Other than the childish low-quality graphics showing Obama holding a Communist symbol, what was the point of the video? If it was an attempt to shoot down Obama's leadership, it failed.

[mrwebb8825]

If the rules were suddenly changed and Trump gets kicked out there would be major violence in the streets that would make the Watts riots and the aftermath of the Rodney King verdict seem like a ride at Disneyland.

Could very well be the 1st time the National Guard has been called into action on American soil since the early 60s to escort a little black girl to an all white school. Trouble is, many of them wouldn't show as they voted for Trump and the man/men that cheated them would be the ones giving the orders to them.

REALLY hoping the "parties" just fall in line, they let the FBI indictments bring Bernie into the race where he should be and nobody gets shot that ISN'T a sitting politician. Really wouldn't miss most of them anyway.

[boomerangutang]

A video released today tells of many Republican heavies saying they're going to miss the Rep convention. When asked, they hem and haw. One said he had a hair appointment at that time. Another said the grandkids were visiting then. It's like a joke. Thanks Trump, for the entertainment on so many levels!

I can picture the convention: Keynote speakers, below, and their most glowing endorsement statements.....

Christie: "I worked with Trump in New Jersey. I helped him with bankruptcy proceedings on his two large casinos. I acknowledged when he packed the NJ court with two judges who ruled favorably on his bankruptcies. I was with Trump when he avoided paying his workers after the work was done. I can ascertain Trump is a savvy businessman, and he will be smart as president."

Carson: "There are two Trumps. The Trump you see is brash and offensive. But I've seen the other Trump who is decent. I gave him a Bible which he says he keeps by his gold-framed bed, so I assume he's a good Christian who fears God. Vote for Trump, and you'll get the good Trump, not the other Trump you've seen on the campaign trail."

Ryan: "We've had our differences, but he's alright. He says he will appoint a hard-right supreme court justice after conferring with me. As the Republican leader, I'm supposed to hate Clinton, so I do. And Trump is the alternative. Is my time up at the podium?"

Koch: "Trump says he's very rich. Maybe he is, but I'm richer. Trump is probably richer than Clinton, I don't know, but he talks like he is, so I'm supporting him. I have to support the most right wing candidate. Go ahead and vote for Trump. I invested a lot of money in his campaign, and I don't want to lose any of it. Plus, Trump tells me I get a direct phone line to the Oval office if he's elected. He's never lied before, so I guess I'm in his corner in this. Plus I'm supposed to hate Hillary because she's a Democrat, so I do. That leaves just one choice, doesn't it?"

[up2u2]

The only reason the Republican apparatchik want to dump the Trump is because they can't control him. The fact that he would make America the laughing stock of the entire planet is unimportant. The Republican Party is beholden too a lot of very wealthy people and American Corporates. They pay big money to have their interests protected above the interests of the American People. They need a President that can obey orders and pass the appropriate legislation to protect and further enrich the people who pay them good money to do just that.

[NovaBlue05]

The only reason the Republican apparatchik want to dump the Trump is because they can't control him. The fact that he would make America the laughing stock of the entire planet is unimportant. The Republican Party is beholden too a lot of very wealthy people and American Corporates. They pay big money to have their interests protected above the interests of the American People. They need a President that can obey orders and pass the appropriate legislation to protect and further enrich the people who pay them good money to do just that.

Of course. They work for the same paymaster as the other side. The plan was always Jeb and Hillary so that the bosses needs were met either way while the masses maintained the illusion that their vote can effect their govt direction.

They got half their ticket but Trump is the X factor

[boomerangutang]

The only reason the Republican apparatchik want to dump the Trump is because they can't control him. The fact that he would make America the laughing stock of the entire planet is unimportant. The Republican Party is beholden too a lot of very wealthy people and American Corporates. They pay big money to have their interests protected above the interests of the American People. They need a President that can obey orders and pass the appropriate legislation to protect and further enrich the people who pay them good money to do just that.

Of course. They work for the same paymaster as the other side. The plan was always Jeb and Hillary so that the bosses needs were met either way while the masses maintained the illusion that their vote can effect their govt direction.

They got half their ticket but Trump is the X factor

Ronald McDonald would also be an X factor.

[NovaBlue05]

The only reason the Republican apparatchik want to dump the Trump is because they can't control him. The fact that he would make America the laughing stock of the entire planet is unimportant. The Republican Party is beholden too a lot of very wealthy people and American Corporates. They pay big money to have their interests protected above the interests of the American People. They need a President that can obey orders and pass the appropriate legislation to protect and further enrich the people who pay them good money to do just that.

Of course. They work for the same paymaster as the other side. The plan was always Jeb and Hillary so that the bosses needs were met either way while the masses maintained the illusion that their vote can effect their govt direction.

They got half their ticket but Trump is the X factor

Ronald McDonald would also be an X factor.

Yes, cute retort but any non-establishment figure would fill the bill

Edited June 12, 2016 by NovaBlue05