Kasikorn Research Center says Brexit not overly significant for Thailand

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Kasikorn Research Center says Brexit not overly significant for Thailand

BANGKOK, 20 June 2016 (NNT) - Kasikorn Research Center has estimated that if the UK votes to stay in the EU, Thailand would only be affected by short-term fluctuations in the currency market, before refocusing its attention to the interest rate policies of the US Federal Reserve and the Chinese economy.

However, if the UK chooses to withdraw from the EU, currency fluctuations may persist throughout the withdrawal process, which could take up to two years.

The research center said the severity of the Brexit depends on the effectiveness of British policy to ensure investor confidence and prevent the depreciation of the British pound.

In the case of successful economic policies, Thailand will see a GDP contraction of approximately 0.02 - 0.04% or approximately 3-5.5 billion baht.

However, if the UK fails to ensure investor confidence and prevent its currency from depreciating, then its negative effects towards Thai trade, tourism and investments would account for a 0.1 - 0.2% contraction in Thailand’s GDP, or approximately 8.9 - 20 billion baht.

-- NNT 2016-06-20

[happy chappie]

If the baht drops to below 40 to the pound making it 20% more expensive I can see a lot of Brits not buying property and missing out on their bacon and cheese.in 2005 when it was 70+ baht to a pound I used to come here with a few or more mates.them days are gone.thailand is expensive now let alone a massive drop.remember what's just happened to the Russians.

[BuaBS]

Kasikorn research center doesn't know it's already a certainty that there will be NO Brexit ?

Bad research center !

People/institutions that want a remain go over bodies to get their way.

Don't worry , the EU will implode in 5 to 10 years. That will certainly be significant for Thailand : lots of euro's fleeding the zone for better places like.....Thailand.

[peterb17]

Another TV expert.

Hate to say the depth of feeling amongst the ordinary guy on the street may well lead to Brexit.

There is a big country beyond the chattering classes in London- and they are fed up with a huge population rise and don't believe everything presented by Project Fear .

[useronthenet]

It's not significant for Thailand, as many have left for more fertile grounds.

[peterb17]

Chances of a Bremain are at 95% as per the options data on the British pound...its not going to happen...I am betting big against it in the markets.

Mmm

How big - a few £million or maybe 2000baht.

Presumably as Baguette you are French ( or course I may be wrong? )

Another TV expert- at the moment it's 50:50 , the feeling on the ground is that it may be Out - will see on Friday.

Don't underestimate how the Brits do not like being told what to do - the comments from Obama shifted the polls!

[connda]

Brexit isn't even significant to Britain. It's a non-binding referendum. The people can vote to leave, and more than likely it will remain business as usual. Marching orders from Brussels ad-infinitum, although Cameron will be made to fall on his sword, figuratively of course.

You have to give the 'little people' the perception that they make a difference, even if they don't.

Bread, circuses, pageantry. It's in plain sight although most of the masses can't see it.

[hawker9000]

Reads like classic doomsaying, but some seem to think Brexit could result in another, possibly worse, Lehman Bros. style credit collapse beyond the ability of central banks to contain. (In fact, fears like that seem to be the thing fueling the Bremain side...)

But the odds of Brexit seem to depend very much on who you ask, though the impression I get is that there was a high tide which is now receding. The mass media get into it with their talent for high drama, and you can't know who to believe.

[BuaBS]

Reads like classic doomsaying, but some seem to think Brexit could result in another, possibly worse, Lehman Bros. style credit collapse beyond the ability of central banks to contain. (In fact, fears like that seem to be the thing fueling the Bremain side...)

But the odds of Brexit seem to depend very much on who you ask, though the impression I get is that there was a high tide which is now receding. The mass media get into it with their talent for high drama, and you can't know who to believe.

Brexit won't result in a worse Lehman .... an implosion of Deutsche bank might.

And I'm sure Kasikorn will say that it won't affect the Thai economy much ( and tourist number will be up according to TAT).

Friday will be a non event. Some people will make a lot of money off it , and gold will be smashed again after remain wins , oil & pound up.

There is no escape from Brussels. Be glad it took only one murder to get things done.