UK's Iraq War report could make grim reading for Tony Blair

[webfact]

UK's Iraq War report could make grim reading for Tony Blair
By JILL LAWLESS

LONDON (AP) — Thirteen years after British troops marched into Iraq and seven years after they left a country that's still mired in violence, a mammoth official report is about to address the lingering question: What went wrong?

On Wednesday, retired civil servant John Chilcot will publish his long-delayed, 2.6 million-word report on the divisive war and its chaotic aftermath. The U.S.-led conflict killed 179 British troops and some 4,500 American personnel. It also helped trigger violence that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and still rocks the Middle East.

And it overshadows the legacy of former Prime Minister Tony Blair.

"Despite all the many other things he did — and many people would argue lots of positive achievements — he will always be remembered for this fateful decision in 2003," said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of defense think tank the Royal United Services Institute.

Opponents of the war hope Chilcot will find that Blair agreed to support President George W. Bush's invasion and then used deception to persuade Parliament and the public to back it.

Such a stark finding is unlikely. But senior politicians, diplomats, intelligence officials and military officers are bracing for criticism over the flawed arguments that led to the invasion, and the lack of planning for the occupation that followed.

"I think it will probably shy away from saying, 'This is what happened and this is who is to blame and this is what we should then do to them,'" said Gareth Stansfield, professor of Middle East politics at the University of Exeter.

"I think it will address key lessons in how intelligence was generated and then used and manipulated in the political system."

Chilcot's inquiry held public hearings between 2009 and 2011, taking evidence from more than 150 witnesses — including Blair, who has served as an international business consultant and Mideast peace envoy since he stepped down in 2007.

The inquiry has analyzed 150,000 documents and cost more than 10 million pounds ($13 million), but its report has been repeatedly delayed, in part by wrangling over the inclusion of classified material — including conversations between Blair and Bush. Some of Blair's pre-war letters to the president are expected to be published by Chilcot.

Chilcot said in an interview broadcast Tuesday that it took far longer than expected to "get to the bottom of what happened over a nine-year period with all the legal, military, diplomatic and intelligence aspects."

He said the goal was to produce "a really reliable account" and that meant negotiating agreement with the government over publishing details of Cabinet meetings, discussions with heads of state and other sensitive issues.

He said the report would be critical.

"I made very clear right at the start of the inquiry that if we came across decisions or behavior which deserved criticism then we wouldn't shy away from making it," Chilcot said. "And indeed, there have been more than a few instances where we are bound to do that."

Opponents of the war claim Blair's government exaggerated evidence that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that threatened the West — the foundation of the case for war. No chemical, biological or nuclear weapons were found in Iraq.

A U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee investigation found pre-war intelligence failings and concluded that politicians had overstated the evidence for weapons of mass destructions and ignored warnings about the violence that could follow an invasion.

Previous, more limited, British inquiries largely absolved the government of blame. A 2004 report by former civil service chief Robin Butler concluded that British intelligence was flawed, unreliable and incomplete, but cleared the government of deliberately misusing it.

"No one lied, no one made up the intelligence," Blair said at the time, a stance he has stuck to ever since. Blair says he won't comment on the report until it is published.

Some senior officials, though, say the decision to go to war was made long before Parliament voted to approve it on March 18, 2003.

Alan West, who was head of the Royal Navy at the time, said "I think there had been a decision that we were going to invade Iraq, that that was going to happen, but they were looking for a reason to actually do it."

"They'd bloody decided, that's the reality," West told political magazine The House.

Anti-war activists hope Chilcot will find the conflict illegal, opening the way for Blair to be prosecuted for war crimes. They will probably be disappointed. Chilcot has stressed that his inquiry is not a court of law, and the International Criminal Court has said that the "decision by the U.K. to go to war in Iraq falls outside the court's jurisdiction."

Some British lawmakers hope to deploy an obscure statute last used 200 years ago to impeach Blair and put him on trial before the House of Lords — again, an unlikely outcome.

The inquiry's main achievement may be to make public historic decisions taken behind closed doors.

Stansfield said the families of British troops killed in Iraq deserve to learn "why Blair made the decisions that he did."

But he said the report's most important lessons would be about how the aftermath of the invasion went so disastrously wrong.

Iraq descended into sectarian strife after the occupiers dismantled Saddam's government and military apparatus, unleashing chaos that helped give rise to the Sunni extremist militants of the Islamic State group.

"In many ways the really important question is, how do we manage post-conflict environments more effectively?" Stansfield said. "We need to learn those lessons from Iraq desperately quickly."

For many relatives of dead British soldiers, the report is likely to provide little solace.

"People say this should bring closure, but it won't," said David Godfrey, whose 21-year-old grandson Daniel Coffey was killed in Iraq in 2007.

"It can't bring anybody back and won't stop us feeling what we feel. It's just another step forward on another long journey."

___

Follow Jill Lawless on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/JillLawless


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-07-06

[Laughing Gravy]

Yes it could but probably will fall short of calling him a bare faced liar, which he is or a war criminal. he has served the elite very well and continues to do so. I can't see them letting him take the blame for this. The man not only was the catalyst, along with Bush for causing the mayhem in Irag, Afghanistan and the middle east but also the cause of the troubles with immigration in the UK. He is everything wrong with politics and is a self serving, egoistic war monger, sat from behind a desk. This won't be his downfall sadly but his arrogance will and eventually this will catch up with him. The sooner the better for me.

[Franky Bear]

It will be a witewash like the Clinton thing yesterday. Not a hope in Hell he'll go to jail.

[NongKhaiKid]

The report will be critical with carefully placed ' Buts's and However's ' so the criticism is measured and not necessarily as direct as it could or should be.

[Caps]

He needs hanging out to dry....moral of the story, don't get into bed with another country hellbent on being the worlds bullies

[SgtRock]

He got the nickname of '' Teflon Tony '' for a very good reason.

Edited July 6, 2016 by SgtRock

[Emster23]

Looking forward to the report. As US will never face up to Bush criminality, perhaps this will shed enough light to get international indictment... even though US not part of international criminal court (gee, I wonder why?). Go Brits!

[DaddyWarbucks]

He got the nickname of '' Teflon Tony '' for a very good reason.

[DaddyWarbucks]

He got the nickname of '' Teflon Tony '' for a very good reason.

​"Bush's poodle" ​suits him better.

[SgtRock]

He got the nickname of '' Teflon Tony '' for a very good reason.

​"Bush's poodle" ​suits him better.

Poodle ? Nah, poodles are quite cute and adorable.

Agreed. He was certainly Bush's biiiiaaaaatch.

[ballpoint]

He got the nickname of '' Teflon Tony '' for a very good reason.

​"Bush's poodle" ​suits him better.

Poodle ? Nah, poodles are quite cute and adorable.

Agreed. He was certainly Bush's biiiiaaaaatch.

So George was the bitch's Bush?

[sugarcane24]

Blair should in my opinion have been jailed or even better hung for war crimes and crimes against humankind a long time ago, along with a number of other psychopathic world leaders.

[Basil B]

7 years, good timing I think Brexit and the infighting in the main 2 political parties is an attempt to bury this report...

[Andaman Al]

Well I hope it makes 'Grim Reading' for Blair from the inside of a jail cell. Perhaps amongst all these petitions another one is required to put Blair on trial. His lying and scheming for personal gain ruined the lives of so many British families AND Iraqi and Afghan families. No wonder he is a staunch Catholic. It means he is able to commit as much sin and murder as he likes, and then he truly believes that before death an RC Priest can give him absolution for his sins and God will embrace him into the Kingdom of Heaven. That is quite a handy bonus really when you are a lying, treacherous piece of ****.

[dick dasterdly]

Yes it could but probably will fall short of calling him a bare faced liar, which he is or a war criminal. he has served the elite very well and continues to do so. I can't see them letting him take the blame for this. The man not only was the catalyst, along with Bush for causing the mayhem in Irag, Afghanistan and the middle east but also the cause of the troubles with immigration in the UK. He is everything wrong with politics and is a self serving, egoistic war monger, sat from behind a desk. This won't be his downfall sadly but his arrogance will and eventually this will catch up with him. The sooner the better for me.

I agree with all of your post, other than the last sentence.

His unbelievable arrogance is obvious, but even though everyone eventually knew that he had pretty much lied to join the US in a war - he still found positions as an international business consultant and Mideast peace envoy!

[Franky Bear]

I think the fact Blair is now suddenly come back into the public profile he knows he's as safe as houses. He's not hiding, he knows what it says already and knows he's not going to be lifed up. I hope he dies horrifically


He did more long term damage to the UK than Hitler could dream of.

[dick dasterdly]

Blair is just a typical politician - albeit more successful.

How 'cosy' must he have been with various important people and institutions to have been given positions as an international business consultant and Mideast peace envoy?

It sums up many of the things I loathe about UK politics and politicians.

He'll get away with this, and continue to consider himself a statesman .

[dunroaming]

Apparently there has been many months of "negotiations" with the US government over just what can be revealed concerning correspondence between the Bush administation ( and Bush himself) and Blair. Chilcott is said to be very annoyed by the United States efforts to block so much of the incriminating eveidence. Of course this is third party comments off the record and so means nothing in real terms. However I think we all know the difficulties he has encountered.

[dunroaming]

Just finished listening to the Chicott summary. What was expected really and will take a few days to digest all of it. Blair pivitol in the chaotic illegal invasion of Iraq. I doubt that Blair will be brought to book but at least all of us (over one million) that demonstrated at the time have been shown to be right in our condemnation.

However you must feel for the 200 odd soldiers and civilians who were killed and all the others badly injured, all for nothing. RIP to all the soldiers, innocent men, women and children who were killed. Shame on you Blair, shame on you Bush

[Kiwiken]

It will be whitewashed. Nothing will happen. It will be revealed that some junior Intelligence officer who will have conveniently now left the Service. Had sent a memo over saying Iraq had Washing Machines and dryers (Shortened to WMD's) which for some unknown reason caused panic in Washington and Whitehall. And this was the reason for the war. Bush and Blair will be once again hailed as heroes.