Is the Thai economy collapsing?

[tubby johnson]

The economy's doing fine. Relax.

[chiang mai]

Thailand's foreign currency reserves have very little bearing on THB strength, currencies become weaker or stronger for one reason only and that is through the extent to which they are traded. Now I grant you that the strength of the underlying economy is one of the reasons why THB is traded so much and the size of the country''s foreign reserves is a small part of that, but to attribute THB strength solely to the currency reserves is not correct.

the Thai foreign reserve is large compared to the nation's size, Thailand has even more reserves then nations like Australia, Canada, UK, US, France, Norway, demand for the dollars among the Thai is much lower then say most African or south American nations, thus the central bank affords to sell the Thai baht at higher prices, it s as simple as any basic economic of trading.

Rubbish, BOT operates a managed floating rate system which means it's value is determined by the forex market, except where BOT intervenes to smooth out its value against USD, as an aid to exporters - BOT will also intervene in the event THB is out of line with the Asean basket much of which is USD based anyway. If indeed BOT were to try and sell THB at a rate far higher than its market value, the offshore market would pick up on this quickly and a two rate system would develop, as indeed it did earlier this century when BOT manage inflows and apply a tax to capital outflows.

Edited July 20, 2016 by chiang mai

[Peterw42]

Can I show this post to the noodle guy on the corner ?

Help him understand why he has no customers.

[laislica]

Going by the number of empty shops in Central Plaza, Khon Kaen, that were once trading, and by the huge number of shops-houses that are built but never occupied, and, to my eyes, the fewer cars on the road, I think the economy is not good.

You just described how it is Spain as well!.

We spend the summer in Spain and winter in Thailand.

In Spain, every year the count of empty shops that used to trade grows relentlessly!

This is probably true for most countries, not just Thailand?

[mcfish]

Most Thais think you just need to start a business , open the doors and the money rolls on in. The reality is they run it into the ground over a year draining family and farang finances and disappear to be quickly replaced by the next in line. Ive lost count of these type of small business around me in Bangkok that turn over sometimes 4 in a year...same shop

More to do with zero research and experience than a collapsed economy

If you want to launch into a diatribe against Thais, please do it on a different thread.

I specifically said it was about LONG ESTABLISHED businesses to avoid replies such as yours.

To those that answered the question, thank you.

Get a grip. Your sensationalist thread title drew me in and I was hoping to see some interesting content but what I saw was probably the silliest post I have ever read . An anonymous one horse town and some shut shops. Long established is completely subjective in Thailand

How about you put a bit of effort into it and name the town and business involved. The location and population, Lets start with that shall we?

Next time dont be so lazy!

What does that reply mean?

You cant provide any details at all?

Is it a fishing community, mining community, farming etc .

Refusing to provide content about your own thread just makes you look a complete fool and Im starting the think Its a brain dead fabrication to draw in Thai bashing which you have certainly achieved..well done

Edited July 20, 2016 by mcfish

[thaipod]

There is a lot of locals changing to online shopping with a huge amount using home delivery due to difficulty in travelling around the cities , therefore killing off a lot of the small shops and over supply of businesses.

It's not surprising to see business go bust when they don't do any research and get a bank loan to open another coffee shop.

[marcofunny]

Rubbish, BOT operates a managed floating rate system which means it's value is determined by the forex market, except where BOT intervenes to smooth out its value against USD, as an aid to exporters - BOT will also intervene in the event THB is out of line with the Asean basket much of which is USD based anyway. If indeed BOT were to try and sell THB at a rate far higher than its market value, the offshore market would pick up on this quickly and a two rate system would develop, as indeed it did earlier this century when BOT manage inflows and apply a tax to capital outflows.

again take a look at this list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

take a look at the bottom of the table you got(Venezuela, Sudan etc...), I think it s obvious that central banks cants manage inflation if they have dwindling foreign reserves, Thailand does not need parallel black market for dollars because it has sufficient amount to sell to the public.

to my opinion why the Thai national budget management is successful are due to the following factors.

1. Thailand does not import its own staple food ( Rice ), it produces it on its own, some countries are spending as much as 30% of GDP on food imports.
2. Thailand does not spend huge sums on foreign donations, refugees or immigrants,eg Germany is planning to spend 93 Billion $ on refugees or almost 45% of its reserves.
3. Thailand does not intervene militarily into foreign countries and wage wars, (eq the US spent 4 trillion $ in Iraq + veterans.) and does not have imminent threats from other nations or neighbors (eg south Korea vs north / Taiwan vs China).
4. Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).
5. Thailand s protectionist labor laws means that it has very low unemployment rate 0.9%.
6. Most Thai elders are taken care by their own families and Thailand does not have large number of veterans or aging population.

again if you look at the above table you got (China, Japan, Switzerland, Taiwan) and all these nations apply the same national policies of Thailand, for example each European tax payer is spending approximately 4,800 euros ( 185,000 Baht ) annually to support refugees and bail countries in debts like Greece or others whom we all know that they wont pay back.

Edited July 20, 2016 by marcofunny

[MissAndry]

• Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).

Did you forget about the Southern separatists?

And the red shirts?

[marcofunny]

• Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).

Did you forget about the Southern separatists?

And the red shirts?

no but it s less chaotic then say Mexico or Brazil where the army presence inside the towns costs the tax payers huge sums of money, I never seen large ghettos in Thailand or are there any ?

Edited July 20, 2016 by marcofunny

[MissAndry]

Going by the number of empty shops in Central Plaza, Khon Kaen, that were once trading, and by the huge number of shops-houses that are built but never occupied, and, to my eyes, the fewer cars on the road, I think the economy is not good.

You just described how it is Spain as well!.

We spend the summer in Spain and winter in Thailand.

In Spain, every year the count of empty shops that used to trade grows relentlessly!

This is probably true for most countries, not just Thailand?

Most high streets in the Uk, mainly Estate Agents and charity shops now.

The council taxes have closed most of the real shops down, they can't compete with the out of town supermarkets and online shops.

[chiang mai]

Rubbish, BOT operates a managed floating rate system which means it's value is determined by the forex market, except where BOT intervenes to smooth out its value against USD, as an aid to exporters - BOT will also intervene in the event THB is out of line with the Asean basket much of which is USD based anyway. If indeed BOT were to try and sell THB at a rate far higher than its market value, the offshore market would pick up on this quickly and a two rate system would develop, as indeed it did earlier this century when BOT manage inflows and apply a tax to capital outflows.

again take a look at this list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

take a look at the bottom of the table you got(Venezuela, Sudan etc...), I think it s obvious that central banks cants manage inflation if they have dwindling foreign reserves, Thailand does not need parallel black market for dollars because it has sufficient amount to sell to the public.

to my opinion why the Thai national budget management is successful are due to the following factors.

1. Thailand does not import its own staple food ( Rice ), it produces it on its own, some countries are spending as much as 30% of GDP on food imports.
2. Thailand does not spend huge sums on foreign donations, refugees or immigrants,eg Germany is planning to spend 93 Billion $ on refugees or almost 45% of its reserves.
3. Thailand does not intervene militarily into foreign countries and wage wars, (eq the US spent 4 trillion $ in Iraq + veterans.) and does not have imminent threats from other nations or neighbors (eg south Korea vs north / Taiwan vs China).
4. Thailand's homogeneous population causes less sectarian tensions, think about Mexico, Brazil or Salvador or the ghettos in Europe-USA where the state has to deploy the army and police to intervene frequently inside the favelas to keep orders (eg cituad Juarez oro sao Paulo).
5. Thailand s protectionist labor laws means that it has very low unemployment rate 0.9%.
6. Most Thai elders are taken care by their own families and Thailand does not have large number of veterans or aging population.

again if you look at the above table you got (China, Japan, Switzerland, Taiwan) and all these nations apply the same national policies of Thailand, for example each European tax payer is spending approximately 4,800 euros ( 185,000 Baht ) annually to support refugees and bail countries in debts like Greece or others whom we all know that they wont pay back.

Not much to do with the strength of THB, really. There's no disagreement about the high levels of foreign currency reserves, the subject however was the strength of THB, not budget management, foreign aid or Thailand's military intervention capabilities.

[mania]

I for one commend the Thais on their entrepreneurial spirit. Sure, there are lots of coffee shops. I can't think of another business that has a lower barrier to entry. Some may succeed, most will fail but I'm sure the failures will be back with new schemes to escape wage slavery. Nothing good is going to come from the top down. These folks recognize they have to make their own way to enter the middle class and beyond. Good luck to them.

+1

This is something I always say also

I do love their spirit...They will try

Of course they do need better planning & training as it is all not as easy as it looks

Here is a map of coffee spots in ChiangMai now from a recent Compass Magazine

It is incredible the amount

But I love coffee...specialty coffee & have friends who work at the world comp levels

Here in CM I would say there are maybe a dozen high caliber shops

I frequent 3 or 4 & know they are world class

But as you say I cannot fault them (all the rest) for trying..I just wish a bit more research 1st

to better stretch their investment

Ooops forgot to attach map of shops

Edited July 20, 2016 by mania

[ozyjon]

The whole wide world is in a similar situation, just ticking over, the very fact interest rates world wide are so low tells you everything you need to know.

The world economy is in the same position it was around 10 years after the great depression, that makes it 1938, you know what happened in 1939.

Do i think a world war will happen no i don't but there easily could be and if it did happen it will destroy a third of the world and then economies will start kicking into gear to rebuild everything.

Sorry to steal your reply but i'm too lazy to re-write your exact words,

iv'e said it before but to add to your reply, the minds that be are undecided as

if there will be a world war or not. Some say yes, others not a war but a correction

leading to massive civil unrest.

In the US, the bets are on for a civil war, (the trigger is the cop killings)

In the EU, the bets are on for war, (the trigger is the massive refugee invasion)

it's not an if but when, i'm not going to give you facts and figures because if you

need to ask then go back to the bar and finish your beer, the world is moving on

without you.

Is the Thai economy collapsing?

Not yet, thanks to the many street vendors and markets that still use cash,

that's what saving Thailand, the cash economy and rural economy, but the

''correction'' will happen, just give it time, all eyes on China as well, will they

stop buying / using the US dollar, that's the trigger, wait and see.

[marcofunny]

France - Britain - Germany spent a crazy total of 530$bn to bail out Greece and they will never pays back, how many factories, hospitals, schools,universities could be built with that Money ?

This year they are going to spend a total of 180$bn on refugees instead of taking care of their own people, plus other astronomical expensive expenditure which these refugees will trigger such as adequate housings, welfare, health care, counter terrorism, law enforcement etc..

The new world order elites are determined to annihilate the whole of the first world countries as quickly as possible and the average Joe is not aware of their secret agendas, once they are done with Europe- USA then they would stage something for China, Russia, Europe, India to make one world order.?

Edited July 20, 2016 by marcofunny

[Sparkles]

Massively Inflated "value" of the Baht isn't helping!

....and the Banks are trying to rip-off the ferang as well.

Yesterday we went to our Branch of a Bank I've been with for the past 10 years to get the letter for Immigration, as to having the required amount of money, to stay here with my Thai Wife and our daughter.

Smart little fellow tried to hit us up for Baht 400 for the Letter. Now, this has, in the past ranged between 100 and 200 Baht.

Both my wife and I started making noises of DISAPPROVAL. I threatened to close my account and guess what ?

Smart little fellow told us he would PAY the extra 200 Baht!

.... and they wonder why????

Never paid more than 100 baht over 10 yrs,you've been done !

[Dan5]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

Fine? All of my Thai friends say the opposite and have been saying it for quite a while now.

[mikiea]

Armchair economists - full of insights on anything and everything.

yea just like barstool comando/special op's/gree...........yada yada yada

[mikiea]

I for one commend the Thais on their entrepreneurial spirit. Sure, there are lots of coffee shops. I can't think of another business that has a lower barrier to entry. Some may succeed, most will fail but I'm sure the failures will be back with new schemes to escape wage slavery. Nothing good is going to come from the top down. These folks recognize they have to make their own way to enter the middle class and beyond. Good luck to them.

+1

This is something I always say also

I do love their spirit...They will try

Of course they do need better planning & training as it is all not as easy as it looks

Here is a map of coffee spots in ChiangMai now from a recent Compass Magazine

It is incredible the amount

But I love coffee...specialty coffee & have friends who work at the world comp levels

Here in CM I would say there are maybe a dozen high caliber shops

I frequent 3 or 4 & know they are world class

But as you say I cannot fault them (all the rest) for trying..I just wish a bit more research 1st

to better stretch their investment

Ooops forgot to attach map of shops

20160716_094853.jpg

drink the coffee , no wussie finger painting on the joe , just drink the coffee , anything else is childish .

[mania]

drink the coffee , no wussie finger painting on the joe , just drink the coffee , anything else is childish .

555 Normally I just drink espresso like below

But once in awhile I have a milk based piccolo because it is only a tiny amount of milk as the drink is only 4oz

As to the art I don't mind it at all & have seen some real skill in pouring it

[autanic]

For years I have looked at the Thai Economy and Exchange Rates with an enigma.

A fine balance of allowing a floating exchange rate combined with highly subsidised industries and a debt fuelled culture linked to the ever and omni present id card system means there is an ever ready supply of money, which the BOT use to securitise there exports.

10/10 for effort and you have to agree, the system can withstand global shocks and turbulence in the markets.

[chiang mai]

For years I have looked at the Thai Economy and Exchange Rates with an enigma.

A fine balance of allowing a floating exchange rate combined with highly subsidised industries and a debt fuelled culture linked to the ever and omni present id card system means there is an ever ready supply of money, which the BOT use to securitise there exports.

10/10 for effort and you have to agree, the system can withstand global shocks and turbulence in the markets.

To be more precise: the exchange rate is a managed floating rate, which means there is intervention and the debt levels are very low by comparison to western countries.

[MissAndry]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

[Hornyskunk]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

[MissAndry]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

Most Thais are completely immune to the world economy. They live hand to mouth and buy local produce. If the worst happens they are good at growing their own food and gathering from the jungle. Most of the Thais I have met are almost completely self sufficient, or they could be if needful. Their kids might not get a new tablet or phone, that's about their exposure to the world.

Edited July 21, 2016 by MissAndry

[Peterw42]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

My local noodle vendor has a diversified offshore portfolio, also has a Thai hedge fund to offset possible currency fluctuations. She often expresses her concern over the consumer price index as a ratio of Gdp growth.

Her noodle cart is just a hobby.

[chiang mai]

Most Thais have never left the country, they don't care about the exchange rate.

This is a thread about how Thais are doing, not rich foreigners visiting Thailand.

There are wealth creators who build businesses that employ the rest, those businesses are the economy and those people care about exchange rates, the economy does not care, nor does it take a hit if Somchai closes his noodle shop for any reason.

[B1TcoinLife]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

Most Thais are completely immune to the world economy. They live hand to mouth and buy local produce. If the worst happens they are good at growing their own food and gathering from the jungle. Most of the Thais I have met are almost completely self sufficient, or they could be if needful. Their kids might not get a new tablet or phone, that's about their exposure to the world.

Sounds like central bkk area, people in my area always roaming into supermarkets and restaurant jungles to capture a quick meal or drink...

[craigt3365]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

Most Thais are completely immune to the world economy. They live hand to mouth and buy local produce. If the worst happens they are good at growing their own food and gathering from the jungle. Most of the Thais I have met are almost completely self sufficient, or they could be if needful. Their kids might not get a new tablet or phone, that's about their exposure to the world.

That may have been true 10 years ago. But not now. You can't depend 100% on surviving off the jungle, impossible.

[B1TcoinLife]

The world economy is collapsing. Thailand is not immune to that.

Most Thais are completely immune to the world economy. They live hand to mouth and buy local produce. If the worst happens they are good at growing their own food and gathering from the jungle. Most of the Thais I have met are almost completely self sufficient, or they could be if needful. Their kids might not get a new tablet or phone, that's about their exposure to the world.

That may have been true 10 years ago. But not now. You can't depend 100% on surviving off the jungle, impossible.

Big C or tesco lotus on a Friday evening is worse than any jungle...

[Agent Sumo]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

Fine? All of my Thai friends say the opposite and have been saying it for quite a while now.

So what?

I prefer to rely on stats than anecdotes from a few Thais.

For all I know, your friends could be doing something as daft as running a rice import business.