Brexit deals heavy hit to UK economy but eurozone holds up

[Khun Han]

^ Ah well, the PMI survays are obviously far more accurate than the Treasury and Bank of England assessments . Maybe we should put Markit Group in charge of the UK economy?

[Grouse]

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) is a standard bellwether. In this case Britain's PMI has dropped below the 50% threshold indicating a contraction from 52.4 previously to 47.7 this reporting period compiled between July 12 and 21. Eurozone 19 countries PMI dropped only slightly from 53.1 to 52.9 (the OP states 'June' but July figures are similar).

Thus, the latest PMI survey taken between July 12-21 indicates Britain's PMI was officially under-water. This is of course a snap-shot in time and the next 2 or so PMI surveys will start to form the trend line (likely to continue lagging or contracting further given many indications). All this is apparently 'much ado about nothing' to any Brexiter primarily motivated by immigration issues.

More:

'"A key feature of the PMI surveys is that they ask only for factual information. They are not surveys of opinions, intentions or expectations and the data therefore represent the closest one can get to hard data without asking for actual figures from companies.

Questions asked relate to key variables such as output, new orders, prices and employment. Questions take the form of up/down/same replies. For example, Is your companys output higher, the same or lower than one month ago?"

Thanks for that!

Makes a change on here to get some well reasoned points!

BTW, the sale of ARM is a disaster frankly. The Japs did well to snap up that Jewel!

[sungod]

Once again we Brits can see why we are better out of Europe with long delays at Dover due to French action.

The French have just introduced extra security just in time for the holiday period causing delays in excess of 12 hours, yet they help illegal migrants get in to the UK.

Europe would be a lot better without France.

Yeah, I saw that Basil. I was just thinking how well the freedom of movement Hollande was insisting on was working.

[Baerboxer]

so how is it the BOE released a statement saying the UK economy had not slowed since the vote as initially predicted.

Reports like this only aid the speculators, the figures referred to do not indicate contraction and there is no significant difference between the UK and EU figures.

No mention of record levels of employment in the UK compared to the EU.

All this from people that did not see the Brexit vote coming!

It would be rather difficult for the BOE to say that the UK economy had not actually slowed about one month after the vote, so if you kindly could provide a link to the released statement that would be helpful. Evidence of potential contraction is a time lag. The latest PMI figures are forward looking indicators, but one month's figures need to be repeated to discern a definitive trend.

The PMI is a very broad brush rough rule of thumb guide. I was involved when it first came out and was a contributor for many years. The trend needs following over time as you suggest.

The Euro zone is holding up for now. But European banks are still in trouble. Greek banks need a bailout which is against EU law but politically may be necessary - and if allowed shows again how EU bureaucrats override EU law when it suits. Deutsche Bank is very very shaky - something being kept very quite. With all the issues around illegal activities of German businesses, the illegal immigration issues, propping up the EU and their own shaky financial institutions Germany may not be the engine that drives the EU for much longer. Then what - France? Too busy on strike. And those two must make up most of the UK budget contribution shortfall somehow.

Brexit may have been bad for the UK but it isn't good for the EU; and the EU isn't immune to it.

[Ricardo]

Once again we Brits can see why we are better out of Europe with long delays at Dover due to French action.

The French have just introduced extra security just in time for the holiday period causing delays in excess of 12 hours, yet they help illegal migrants get in to the UK.

Europe would be a lot better without France.

Shades of the old headline ...

"Problems With Channel-Ferries, Europe Cut Off !"

... perhaps they should have carried-on, digging the Chunnel, until they reached Belgium or Germany ?

Edited July 24, 2016 by Ricardo

[Grouse]

Once again we Brits can see why we are better out of Europe with long delays at Dover due to French action.

The French have just introduced extra security just in time for the holiday period causing delays in excess of 12 hours, yet they help illegal migrants get in to the UK.

Europe would be a lot better without France.

Yeah, I saw that Basil. I was just thinking how well the freedom of movement Hollande was insisting on was working.

Many here were demanding Schengen area external borders be strengthened. They are now doing that albeit belatedly. But where's the man power?

Frankly border controls whether French or British are lamentable. Still no automated passport checking at LHR terminal 3. And still no checking who leaves at all. EU problem? I don't think so, lack of infrastructure investment by UK government more like....

[MRYANG]

So... a 900million euro net income monthly is gone from EU, the contributor is worse off than the recipient?

LOL. But hey, it will fool someone.

Edited July 27, 2016 by MRYANG

[SgtRock]

European banks prepare for possible shockwaves from stress test results

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/26/european-banks-prepare-for-possible-shockwaves-from-stress-test-results

This report is being released on Friday, leaving it late so that it will have no weekend effect.

Monday is going to be a fun day for the euro.

[Mosha]

IMF recently said UK over the next 2 years, will out perform Germany, France, and Italy. A reversal on a previous statement.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

[sawadee1947]

Britain will prevail, its only a matter of time.

Yes, I agree with you. It might take a decade. And then start a new approach to become a member again. The old generation of "leave" will have passed away hopefully.

[uksomchai]

The EU is feeling Brexit far worse than the UK which after a small blip has gone from strength to strength. Its starting here

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/693803/Eurozone-economy-Deutsche-Bank-income-plunges-nearly-100-PER-CENT

Standard and Poor's have also given the EU a thumbs down as well here

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/693555/European-Union-Standard-and-Poor-EU-unsustainable-current-format

Economists are also saying that there will be no recession for the Uk after seeing some growth.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1509856/uk-economy-grew-by-0-6-before-referendum-vote-leading-to-speculation-a-post-brexit-recession-may-be-avoided/

All the scare stories were just that. Stories and none of them has come as they promised they would should we dare vote to leave

Countries are lining up to get a deal with the u\k as they can see the EU becoming less a force as it once was

Good times are ahead for the first time in decades