Polls show divided America with Democrats viewed more favorably after convention

[Publicus]

1 hour ago, linksman00 said:

Sorry to make your blood pressure rise there cappy,  just take a deep breath and relax  my friend  You are correct about the 2000 election, even though Nader only got a little over 2% of the overall vote it was crucial in the  Florida outcome, and Gore would have likely won, which might have been a good thing? BTW I do not listen to right wing radio so save your pathetic left wing diatribe for someone else on that count  My post contained only facts my friend,  and facts that can be easily researched.  I have equal distaste for both Trump and Clinton  and if either of them wind up in the White House then the U.S. is in real trouble.  I hope that Assange has what I think he has On Clinton,  and if Trump keeps on alienating people enough then there will likely  be a L.H.O. out there somewhere that will come forward and earn a place in history.  In any event 2016 will be a sad year for the U.S. A. no matter how this plays out 

 

 I have equal distaste for both Trump and Clinton

 

Anyone in this position is missing a lot. Trump is a wildman radical crackpot lunatic who is impulsive and deranged. For one thing, Trump talks about polls, Clinton does not. This is because Clinton is measured, wise, and she can foresee the travails of citing polls. Trump is an idiot.

 

 

I hope that Assange has what I think he has On Clinton,

 

More right wing extremist hopes and dreams, each bubble of which has been burst for going on 30 years of the fringe fanatics blowing bubbles in hope they'd carry off the Clintons, most recently HRC. Dream and wish on cause that's all the rightwhingenoids have ever had or will ever have. Rightwhingenut hopes and dreams from the dark side.

 

Assange was given a television talk show in Moscow by Putin. Anyone who thinks Assange is not in Putin's back pocket (or actually inside where Putin is cracked) is either deluding himself or denying the obvious for whatever reason. Wikileaks is a propaganda arm of Putin. Putin owns Assange. Anyone supporting Assange and Putin in matters concerning the United States has their own pro-Putin and anti-USA agenda. He is either an unwitting foreign agent of Putin or a knowing foreign agent of Putin, as indicated by the former director of CIA just last week. (In which case and if he were in the USA, he would need to be a registered foreign agent with the US Government for security purposes.)

Edited August 8, 2016 by Publicus
Revision

[LomSak27]

Good to see all the liberals and Conservatives sniping away here but, after this last week there is only really one Real Questions: IS THE RACE ALREADY OVER? Has Trump inflicted so much damage on himself, that barring devil horns sprouting from Hilary’s forehead, it is over.

News this week is Hilarys Super Pac is scaling back ads in Colorado and Virginia. They believe they have insurmountable leads and are spending money elsewhere. Out west the Republican bastion of Barry Goldwater, Arizona is up for grabs. Not that nationally it would matter given how few electoral votes you get from it. However taking Teapartiers Holy Ground would be a feather in Hilary's cap.

 

It’s Over

[CaptHaddock]

Been over since Feb. or so when it became completely clear that it would be HRC vs. DT and Trump would lose.  Princeton Election Consortium called the election about that time, even picking Kaine as the Dem VP.

 

Does anyone know what happened to the new "ignore" button?  I haven't seen it lately and now I have a good use for it.  I can't believe I wasted my time interacting with a right-wing nutter.

[Publicus]

 

Released yesterday, Sunday...

Virginia: Clinton 49%, Trump 37% (CBS News)

 

Arizona: Trump 42%, Clinton 40% (CBS News)

 

Nevada: Clinton 43%, Trump 41% (CBS News)

 

 

And in more of the news developments on Sunday,

HR Clinton just officially won Ohio... 

 

Gov. John Kasich told CNN he doesn’t think Donald

Trump can win Ohio. Said Kasich: “He’s going to win

parts of Ohio where people are really hurting and where

people of both parties have failed to fix our education

system. But I still think it’s difficult if you are dividing

to be able to win in Ohio. I think it’s really, really

difficult.”  

 

 

There's still a bit more from our Sunday of this week...

 

GOP strategist Rick Wilson argues in the New York Daily

News that Donald Trump needs to be “on the business

end of a decisive, humiliating defeat.” 

 

The first reason the loss at the polls needs to be total:

to snuff out the corrosive fiction that the system is

rigged. Trump hasn’t just leveled this charge, ridiculous

ly, about the Republican primary, which he won despite

the elites trying to stop him, and somewhat less

ridiculously about the Democratic one. He’s now

complaining before the fact that the November election

will be fixed… 

 

The second reason Trump needs to fall hard in

November is that the Party of Lincoln needs a complete,

top-to-bottom reset — one that completely purges the

Trumpkins who believe racial animus is a governing

philosophy and that their ignorant and angry primal

screams can ever build a Republican majority.

So this 11th consecutive week of Donald Trump's worst week of the campaign has begun as quite the hammer coming down on him.

 

Ten more weeks to go of each week being the worst hammering week of the Trump and Republican Party campaign for the office of Potus. Then alas there will be the final and worst week of 'em all -- the merciful fatal blow.

 

Can't wait actually, even though each worst week after the other are getting quite entertaining. It's like Trump brings Las Vegas to each of us no matter where we are. 

Edited August 8, 2016 by Publicus
Alignment

[Neurath]

18 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

Good to see all the liberals and Conservatives sniping away here but, after this last week there is only really one Real Questions: IS THE RACE ALREADY OVER? Has Trump inflicted so much damage on himself, that barring devil horns sprouting from Hilary’s forehead, it is over.

News this week is Hilarys Super Pac is scaling back ads in Colorado and Virginia. They believe they have insurmountable leads and are spending money elsewhere. Out west the Republican bastion of Barry Goldwater, Arizona is up for grabs. Not that nationally it would matter given how few electoral votes you get from it. However taking Teapartiers Holy Ground would be a feather in Hilary's cap.

 

It’s Over

Seems this is what your saying: This is the Republican Party talking:

 

 

 

 

[ttthailand]

This entire race so far has been a total disaster. Corruption, cheating, bullying, you name it ..... There is however still hope. It seems that the third party of Gary Johnson is coming up quickly in the polls. I believe some polls show 12%. If he gets to 15% he will get into the debates and have a platform to give his message. Check him out as it is better to vote for someone who is at least honest than the lesser of two evils.

[boomerangutang]

Which states will Trump get in November?   Montana?  Wyoming?  Maybe he'll also lose Texas.  Not all Texans are redneck cowpokers and fat cat oilers.  

[CaptHaddock]

6 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

Which states will Trump get in November?   Montana?  Wyoming?  Maybe he'll also lose Texas.  Not all Texans are redneck cowpokers and fat cat oilers.  

 

Best current estimate is that Trump will get all of those deep red states.  Here's the map I rely on

 

http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium

 

HRC wins with 337 EVs.

 

How come I can't insert an image into a post anymore?

[Publicus]

47 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

Which states will Trump get in November?   Montana?  Wyoming?  Maybe he'll also lose Texas.  Not all Texans are redneck cowpokers and fat cat oilers.  

 

From west to south to east, each state Trump will get with its Electoral College vote...

 

Idaho 4

Montana 3

Wyoming 3

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 5

Kansas 6

Oklahoma 7

Texas 38

Arkansas 6

Louisiana 8

Mississippi 6

Alabama 9

Tennessee 11

Kentucky 8

West Virginia 5

 

Also likely or not that much likely are the following red states:

Utah 6

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

Arizona 11

Georgia 16

 

It would be the first time since Barry Goldwater in 1964 that the Republican for Potus would fail to get 200 Electoral College votes (270 needed to win of the total 538 EC votes).

 

Over the long haul there's nobody better than Larry Sabato who is director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and who does live election night analysis for the BBC in each election in the USA. 

 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

 

Dr. Sabato hasn't ever missed a call since he said the South would lose the civil war  

 

And as I'd noted earlier, the R for Potus almost always wins more states, mostly because there are so many lightly populated rural rancher and cowboy states. For those not very familiar with the Electoral College system, each state gets one EC vote for each of its two US Senators and one EC vote for each US Representative it has in the US House. House seats are based on each 700,000 general population in a constituent district. Thus a state with 3 EC votes has a state population of 700K or fewer. (A state with 4 EC votes has the two US senators every state gets plus a general population of 1.4 m.)

 

So red Texas has 38 EC votes but blue California has 55 EC votes. Red Montana has 3. Blue Rhode Island has 4. In between are states such as blue Wisconsin with 10, blue Virginia with 13, blue New Jersey with 17, purple Ohio with 18, blue Pennsylvania with 20, blue Illinois with 20, blue New York state with 29, blueish-purple Florida with 29 and so on.  

 

Trump's looking at a big blue wave coming right at him and it just knocked down his big bad wall.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Publicus
Revision

[Alive]

Divided nation? Don't throw everyone together as I am sure the nation was 'divided' at times when slavery was legal and accepted. The way I see it. It's divided but not in two. Some of us want to end the abuse of the system that fails the working classes and see better lives for our children. Hillary and Trump's lovers are the part divided while the rest of us who really suffer want to see uprising against the establishment. We want change and soon it will be at any cost to those who oppress. It's not a very different story to what is going on in Thailand. The corruption is build into the system and those who have benefited from it forever are still the ones who hold the power and wealth. There is no ladder to climb, no way out. It's all a lie and the filthy politicians know it. Even during the best economy, the poor go nowhere. It takes more than playing by their rules to get justice. Half of the people in politics have used corruption to climb the ladder. They jail the poor for small crimes and let the sly and wealthy get a free pass. There should be a lot more politicians and wealthy elite in the US in jail.

[Publicus]

15 hours ago, Johnniey said:

Believe that and you'll believe anything.

 

Say that and you'll say anything.

 

To anyone.

[ilostmypassword]

15 minutes ago, Alive said:

Divided nation? Don't throw everyone together as I am sure the nation was 'divided' at times when slavery was legal and accepted. The way I see it. It's divided but not in two. Some of us want to end the abuse of the system that fails the working classes and see better lives for our children. Hillary and Trump's lovers are the part divided while the rest of us who really suffer want to see uprising against the establishment. We want change and soon it will be at any cost to those who oppress. It's not a very different story to what is going on in Thailand. The corruption is build into the system and those who have benefited from it forever are still the ones who hold the power and wealth. There is no ladder to climb, no way out. It's all a lie and the filthy politicians know it. Even during the best economy, the poor go nowhere. It takes more than playing by their rules to get justice. Half of the people in politics have used corruption to climb the ladder. They jail the poor for small crimes and let the sly and wealthy get a free pass. There should be a lot more politicians and wealthy elite in the US in jail.

Of course, so much here is untrue.  First of all,  for much of the postwar period, America was prospering for most people and living standards improved. One of the big reasons for this was that taxation was higher. So institutions like state universities could offer middle class people a decent education at lower prices. Then came the age of Reagan where taxes started to be slashed. I remember that in New Jersey Christie Whitman won on a program of slashing taxes by 40 percent.  To fund it she "borrowed" money from the pension fund of the state's workers. At least she called it borrowing. Over time that debt built up and now right wingers denounce state workers as being overpaid.  We see the logical conclusion of this in Kansas where Brownback slashed taxes for the wealthy and claimed the benefits would trickle down to all.  We need to go back to the time when marginal tax rates on the wealthiest were at 70%.

[Publicus]

1 hour ago, Alive said:

Divided nation? Don't throw everyone together as I am sure the nation was 'divided' at times when slavery was legal and accepted. The way I see it. It's divided but not in two. Some of us want to end the abuse of the system that fails the working classes and see better lives for our children. Hillary and Trump's lovers are the part divided while the rest of us who really suffer want to see uprising against the establishment. We want change and soon it will be at any cost to those who oppress. It's not a very different story to what is going on in Thailand. The corruption is build into the system and those who have benefited from it forever are still the ones who hold the power and wealth. There is no ladder to climb, no way out. It's all a lie and the filthy politicians know it. Even during the best economy, the poor go nowhere. It takes more than playing by their rules to get justice. Half of the people in politics have used corruption to climb the ladder. They jail the poor for small crimes and let the sly and wealthy get a free pass. There should be a lot more politicians and wealthy elite in the US in jail.

 

Without agreeing with the post, Trump is not the solution to all or most problems -- or to many or some problems -- because Trump is a ranting and raging crackpot lunatic who speaks only to the right political sector of the society. He has no room for anyone else and he has no interest in appealing to anyone except the loose marbles he is comfortable with. 

 

While Trump has appeared in polite society, he is anything but polite or civil. His political views are few or shallow and his personality in unsuitable for almost any position in society other than an eccentric billionaire who stiffs working people and made his fortune snatching and grabbing other people's milk money. 

 

Trump is just off the wall, always and everywhere on everything. So it is as if someone shook a board containing the USA and everything loose rattled over to a Trump rally, or were flashing rapidly at a Trump rally, or had just bounded out of a Trump rally. If this election were a pinball machine Trump would be at tilt each and every day. His big tilt is coming.

[CaptHaddock]

2 hours ago, Alive said:

Divided nation? Don't throw everyone together as I am sure the nation was 'divided' at times when slavery was legal and accepted. The way I see it. It's divided but not in two. Some of us want to end the abuse of the system that fails the working classes and see better lives for our children. Hillary and Trump's lovers are the part divided while the rest of us who really suffer want to see uprising against the establishment. We want change and soon it will be at any cost to those who oppress. It's not a very different story to what is going on in Thailand. The corruption is build into the system and those who have benefited from it forever are still the ones who hold the power and wealth. There is no ladder to climb, no way out. It's all a lie and the filthy politicians know it. Even during the best economy, the poor go nowhere. It takes more than playing by their rules to get justice. Half of the people in politics have used corruption to climb the ladder. They jail the poor for small crimes and let the sly and wealthy get a free pass. There should be a lot more politicians and wealthy elite in the US in jail.

 

I don't think this kind of analysis is wrong so much as just lazy.  You paint with such a broad brush that the only course of action left is violent revolution, which I might support, but is more likely to result in a military dictatorship than a Nordic-style state with a strong social welfare program and low inequality.

 

The only practical political course that can help the working class is the Democrat program.  Yes, I know that Bill Clinton through his Treas. Sec., Robert Rubin, supported the strong dollar policy that contributed to hollowing out US manufacturing for the benefit of financial services sector.  Just to begin with.  But such social welfare as the US worker still enjoys all came from Democrats and are defended only by Democrats today: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.  The Republicans want to destroy all of these programs pushing ever larger segments of the population out of the middle class and into poverty which the rich get richer.  If the Republicans get their way children will be back working in the mines and Peter G. Peterson-funded  economists will be explaining patiently why economic reality makes it a regrettable necessity.

 

The working class will do better when unions are supported, the right to organize is defended, the minimum wage is raised, Social Security is expanded into a genuine national pension system, university level education is free, and the eligibility age for Medicare is gradually lowered to make the single payer option available.  Only the Democrats will support any of that, much more so after Bernie's heroic efforts.  Now the Democrats don't support that program as strongly as I would like, but the alternative is what?  Dream of a worker's paradise brought about by revolution?

[Boon Mee]

Sadly, the DNC trotted out liar after liar intending to project too many falsehoods to enumerate here but let's take just one example shall we?

 

Gold Star Father Proves Hillary Clinton Is A Liar...

 

Charles Woods w/Costello; 8-2-2016

 

 

 

Is the Lamestream Media completely corrupt or what?

Donald Trump simply cannot get a fair hearing...

 

[ilostmypassword]

48 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

Sadly, the DNC trotted out liar after liar intending to project too many falsehoods to enumerate here but let's take just one example shall we?

 

Gold Star Father Proves Hillary Clinton Is A Liar...

 

Charles Woods w/Costello; 8-2-2016

 

 

 

Is the Lamestream Media completely corrupt or what?

Donald Trump simply cannot get a fair hearing...

 

You're citing something that aired on CNN and you're complaining about the Lamestream Media?  I guess that means you must think CNN isn't part of the Lamestream Media.  Good to know.

[Pinot]

When all media says you're badly losing, blame all media (MSM) for badly losing. Why can't we just let Faux News and Breitbart report the news? 

 

The MSM deserves to be blamed for letting Cheeto Jesus get this far. 

 

The Republican party died in Cleveland. 

[Publicus]

 

The beat goes on....

 

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by eight points nationally, 50% to 42%.

 

“Clinton winning 92% support among self-identified Democrats. That compares with 86% support just before the Republican convention and is an indication that the Democratic convention helped consolidate supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders behind her candidacy.

 

In contrast, Trump is winning 83% of self-identified Republicans, nearly identical to the 82% support he had among Republicans before his convention in Cleveland.”

 

 

A new Morning Consult poll finds Clinton leading Trump by nine points, 46% to 37%.

 

Looking at the WaPo/ABC percentages, and based on 130 million voters going to the polls on November 8th, that would come out in raw numbers of votes as 65 million votes for Clinton-Kaine and 54.6 million votes for Trump-Pence.

 

Based on the Morning Consult poll and 130 million voters nationally, Clinton-Kaine would get the raw total of 59.8 million and Trump would get 48.1 million.

 

Romney in 2012 managed at least 59 million votes in losing to President Obama by almost 6 million votes. By barely varying in the data, Trump is on course to lose to Hillary Clinton by at least 11 million votes, or by almost twice the margin of Romney's loss.

 

Just sayin. 

Edited August 8, 2016 by Publicus
Typo

[slipperylobster]

Hillary got a little bump, which was normal, after the DNC.  Of course, that did not last.  Reuters has it pretty much even now.  Hillary short circuited her brain waves again....and once more, lied about lying.  The failed Obama Administration has just been caught with their pants down (as Bill would say) on the awful way he handled the Ransom fiasco.  That hurt the Democratic party endlessly.  

 

Short circuiting is not something I need in a potential "Commander in Chief"...and neither is botching up a spy plane mission filled with foreign currency. Admitting that her brain is fried, and not responding to simple questions....is pretty awkward ..    perhaps meds will help.

 

Pity those 12 year old girls in lala land that thought a woman would be president this time.  What a let down.

 

[Jingthing]

No, the bump was about people realizing trump is insane and the bump is LASTING. 

[mtls2005]

Short of repealing the 15th and 19th Amendments, and restricting any citizen-immigrants (current, 1st gen, 2nd gen, 3rd gen) from voting, can't see Senor Donald coming close.

 

He's 23 points down with women, and while both of "the Blacks" love him, his appeal is fairly limited to poorly educated, disenfranchised, older, scared, white males. He'll implode in any debates, and not releasing his taxes, will insure he's a "loosah".

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, slipperylobster said:

Hillary got a little bump, which was normal, after the DNC.  Of course, that did not last.  Reuters has it pretty much even now.  Hillary short circuited her brain waves again....and once more, lied about lying.  The failed Obama Administration has just been caught with their pants down (as Bill would say) on the awful way he handled the Ransom fiasco.  That hurt the Democratic party endlessly.  

 

Short circuiting is not something I need in a potential "Commander in Chief"...and neither is botching up a spy plane mission filled with foreign currency. Admitting that her brain is fried, and not responding to simple questions....is pretty awkward ..    perhaps meds will help.

 

Pity those 12 year old girls in lala land that thought a woman would be president this time.  What a let down.

 

You just can't stop cherry-picking can you. What about the other polls? As people who do this for a living know, the way to get the most accurate readings is to aggregate the poll results.  Real Clear Politics has Clinton up 6.5%.  Huffington Post has her up  7.3%.  Five-Thirty-Eight gives Clinton an 83.4% change of winning based on polls alone.  And here's an article from Fivethirtyeight.com

Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Holding Steady 

For now.

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/

[iReason]

Take a look at what the Trumpeteer's bible, Fox Views says:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

"Little bump"?  

More like a glorious thrashing in the works. 

[Boon Mee]

34 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

No, the bump was about people realizing trump is insane and the bump is LASTING. 

The actual "Bump" is when Hillary falls on her face in an event which absolutely shows she's quite ill...

Edited August 8, 2016 by Boon Mee

[slipperylobster]

Hillary is popular with minority groups such as "Black Lives Matters" and other left wingnut clubs.  Illegals love her.  12 year old girls...(they cannot vote anyways), and the misguided.   

 

Misguided as in cannot look beyond the 2XL pantsuit....just think it would be cool to have a democrat as the first female president.  They had Obama..(a total failure)..and now think it would be cute to have a lady.

 

No other reason to vote for her.  Nobody came up with a single positive thing that would make Hillary a good choice.   

 

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, slipperylobster said:

Hillary is popular with minority groups such as "Black Lives Matters" and other left wingnut clubs.  Illegals love her.  12 year old girls...(they cannot vote anyways), and the misguided.   

 

Misguided as in cannot look beyond the 2XL pantsuit....just think it would be cool to have a democrat as the first female president.  They had Obama..(a total failure)..and now think it would be cute to have a lady.

 

No other reason to vote for her.  Nobody came up with a single positive thing that would make Hillary a good choice.   

 

So, you're going to engage in empty ranting instead of defending your claim that the post convention bump for Hillary has disappeared?  Given that your assertion was clearly indefensible, I guess ranting is your best option.

[slipperylobster]

7 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

The actual "Bump" is when Hillary falls on her face in an event which absolutely shows she's quite ill...

 

It may help her to keep a little scratchpad for notes.

However the russians would only get a hold of them.

 

She is the biggest security flaw in the US Government's History.

 

[Boon Mee]

^^

Well, that 'bump has gone the way of the Stork.

Been reading the news other than Huffpo or Salon lately?

Edited August 8, 2016 by Boon Mee

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, slipperylobster said:

 

It may help her to keep a little scratchpad for notes.

However the russians would only get a hold of them.

 

She is the biggest security flaw in the US Government's History.

 

And still the polls show overwhelmingly that she's substantially ahead.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, Boon Mee said:

^^

Well, that 'bump has gone the way of the Stork.

Been reading the news other than Huffpo or Salon lately?

Fivethirtyeight.com, realclearpolitics.com