Polls show divided America with Democrats viewed more favorably after convention

[ilostmypassword]

Thaibeachlover: I hate to agree with you about HRC winning, but disagree in the reason. IMO the people that vote Dems do so because it is the party that gives them stuff, and doesn't uphold the law on illegals. Seems the US is now full of idle people that want other people to pay for their stuff, or think they don't have to immigrate legally.

 

Not only do highly successful ethnic groups like Jewish Americans and Asian Americans overwhelmingly support the Democrats, so do scientists. And now, according to the polls, for the first time in a long time, a majority of white college-educated voters also are going to vote Democratic.   I guess they're all looking for freebies.

[CaptHaddock]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

nothing at all against draft-dodging, but the right-wing voters do.

Wrong! They elected GW Bush, twice, even though he hid in the US Air guard or whatever it is called to get out of active service. I don't know of any US politicians at the time that had sons in Vietnam.

I hate to agree with you about HRC winning, but disagree in the reason. IMO the people that vote Dems do so because it is the party that gives them stuff, and doesn't uphold the law on illegals. Seems the US is now full of idle people that want other people to pay for their stuff, or think they don't have to immigrate legally.

 

BTW, I doubt any serving military rank and file won't see that Khan was a politically choreographed bait for Trump, or that it will change their minds as to voting. The only people attacking him over it are those that were attacking him before.

Unfotunately, Trump fell for it. Hopefully he won't make the same mistake again. Meanwhile it will all be forgotten as soon as the faux outrage subsides.

 

Well, technically speaking Bush II was a deserter, not a draft-dodger, since he simply failed to report for his last year.  Nevertheless it is remarkable that the right-wingers didn't seem to hold it against him.

 

It is remarkable to me how right-wingers like yourself buy into the propaganda that describes a fantasy world.  I realize that I am not going to be the one to persuade you that the hordes of idle, illegal immigrants living high off of government largesse are no more than a figment of the collaborative imaginations of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the rest.  The actual evidence is that illegal Mexican immigrants overwhelmingly hold jobs, pay taxes, including payroll taxes from which they will never benefit, break the law less often than native Americans, and came here in hopes of getting a better life for themselves and their children just like my ancestors did.  But then you probably believe that crime is a huge and growing problem along with teen pregnancies, global warming is a conspiracy, Jesus loves you, gold is safe, the dollar will collapse from Fed printing, hyper-inflation is just around the corner, and the Second Amendment is about your right to own a personal gun that will make you safer.  None of this is true, but the reverberations in the echo chamber of right-wing media persuade you that it has been independently confirmed.  Maybe you're a working class guy whose income has stagnated for the last thirty years, in which case you have my genuine sympathy and you are right if you believe you have been screwed politically, but it wasn't Islamic terrorists who were screwing you over, but the tax policies of Reagan and the two Bushes that made the rich so much richer at your expense.

 

Trump did indeed fall for the bait, because he is really rather a stupid fellow.  Better hope that HRC wins so that the next bait he falls for isn't Putin's.

[iReason]

The Downward Spiral continues: 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

See ya Donnie.

[boomerangutang]

On 8/2/2016 at 4:49 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

Divided America. That's true.

Divided between the illegals and the people on welfare as opposed to those that have the strange idea that people should actually work for a living. The Dems are probably going to win because they promise even more freebies, though they have no idea as to how they can pay for them.

How did America go from being the Land of the Free to the land of the hands out?

 

Most Americans scam the system.  Poor are greater in #, but get less per person.  The rich are less in number but their handouts add up to more than all the poor folks' handouts.  If in doubt, look at the mega handouts of TARP, for automakers, Insurance, banks, GE, AIS, money manipulators on Wall Street, golden parachutes, etc. ad nauseum.   Trump himself has had many hand-outs, not just from his daddy, but also from banks and government, and PACs and individual donations - parts of which he uses to pay rents on his expensive properties that lie empty while he travels around shouting from bully pulpits.

[ilostmypassword]

22 hours ago, linksman00 said:

Reuters and the PPP poll were both heavily manipulated this past week, because the truth is that even after all the Trumps gaffs and the Dems having their convention last it was embarrassing to the Clinton followers that the race was within the margin of error. It is totally shameful, but you have to consider the source.

The Communists at Fox News just manipulated that their latest poll to show that Clinton has a 10 point lead. Their poll also shows Obama with a 52% approval rating.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Alive]

On 8/2/2016 at 3:49 PM, Emster23 said:

The voice of reason is soft, but persistent.

 

Too bad that reason only gets us the lesser of two evils.

[Alive]

On 8/2/2016 at 4:44 PM, Jingthing said:

That's what everyone used to say about him before he did a hostile takeover of the republican party. He's been doing outrages, sometimes DAILY, that would have killed any normal candidate a long time ago. He's still teflon. He's still alive. With the right set of events or news for him, he could still win, still committing outrages all the time. Don't take this fascist threat lightly until this crisis is over. Yes, the crisis is the candidacy of trump. 

From hostile takeover to bankruptcy...

[elgordo38]

On 8/2/2016 at 4:42 PM, Boon Mee said:

Heh...that's what the 'experts' have been saying since he entered the race way back when and look at his popularity now! 

You should really do a recheck on the popularity part. Ever since slurring the Muslim family who lost their son in Iraq the wheels fell off of his campaign wagon. Staunch Republicans like the CEO of HP are voting Hillary as is another high profile GOP member. I think the ye ole ship Trump will soon be nestled beside the Titanic. 

[Jingthing]

Trump does get bigger crowds to his rallies because his rallies are more like pro wrestling or monster truck events than campaign rallies.

Sanders also got bigger crowds than Hillary Clinton.

But when push came to shove, Hillary Clinton received MILLIONS of more votes than Sanders to get the nomination. 

So better to look at the POLL averages than rally sizes.

[Credo]

Heck, I'd go to a Trump rally.   I'd never go to a Clinton or Sanders rally.   I pretty much know what they will say, but going to a Trump rally is like going to the circus.   I can't imagine voting for him, but hey, his rallies look like great fun.   

 

Among other things I've gone to is a mud-wrestling event and I once participated in a 'catch the greased pig' contest.   

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, Credo said:

Heck, I'd go to a Trump rally.   I'd never go to a Clinton or Sanders rally.   I pretty much know what they will say, but going to a Trump rally is like going to the circus.   I can't imagine voting for him, but hey, his rallies look like great fun.   

 

Among other things I've gone to is a mud-wrestling event and I once participated in a 'catch the greased pig' contest.   

I would also definitely go to a trump rally but I also would go to a Clinton or Sanders rally.

The trump rally would definitely be for entertainment purposes. I reckon especially when his traveling CLOWN show plays in small towns, that's a big draw. He's the most newsworthy person in the world right now. Why not see him? 

In the past I have gone to rallies of politicians I despised, like George Wallace, the RACIST. 

I have to admit a Clinton rally would be boring ... but I think she will be our first woman president, so it would be fun to see her in person.

The most inspiring political campaign speech I ever saw was from Gary Hart.

 

Back to trump.

Now that's entertainment!

 

http://digg.com/video/unfiltered-voices-trump-rallies

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Jingthing

[Publicus]

 

Tsunami warning time? New state polls spell big trouble for Donald Trump

 

 

In 1964 the radical Republican rightwhinge nominee Sen Barry Goldwater was waaay behind in all the polling from the Republican convention through the following three months to the November election. Yet each day Goldwater and his crackpot supporters dismissed the polls by saying the real poll is on election day and that it was going to be the biggest upset in US election history blah blah blurp blurp.

 

Well the election did make history as Goldwater got 38.7% of the (un)popular vote, won six states and got 52 Electoral College votes (270 needed to win). It wuz quite the upset to the Republican party and to the extremist pararightwhingenoids of the time.

 

Now is the time of the even more extreme and nasty pararightwhingenoids who, as with the Goldwater radicals in 1964, have seized control of the Republican Party in this 2016 quadrennial Potus election year.

 

And Republican senators up for reelection in Blue states are beginning one by one to sink below the waterline. It is becoming a Blue Wave Tsunami election year across the USA.

 

Our New Hampshire poll for @WBUR:
Clinton 47%
Trump 32%
Johnson 8% 
Stein 3%
Undecided / Other 9%
Jul 29-Aug 1http://wbur.org

 

 

Our New Hampshire Senate poll for @WBUR: 
Hassan: 50%
Ayotte: 40%
Other/Undecided 10%
Jul 29-Aug 1http://wbur.org 

5:01 PM - 4 Aug 2016

Governor Maggie Hassan is the Democrat running against the first (and only) term incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. 

 

 

 

NEW MICHIGAN POLL: 
Clinton 41%
Trump 32%
Johnson 7.5%http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/03/poll-clinton-leads-trump-michigan/88048440/ … 
(via @detroitnews & @Local4News)

 

 

Another new Pennsylvania poll showing @HillaryClinton with a double digit lead in PA. 

Clinton-49
Trump- 38 http://fandm.edu/uploads/files/ …

5:45 PM - 4 Aug 2016

 

 

Tipping point reached? New polls have Trump down 11 in PA, 15 in NH, 9 in MI. He's at 38%, 32% and 32%, respectively.

6:12 PM - 4 Aug 2016

 

http://megynkelly.org/95947/tsunami-warning-time-new-state-polls-spell-big-trouble-for-donald-trump/ 

 

 

 

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Colorado, Florida, N.C. and Virginia: polls

 

Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Trump by 8 points in Colorado, 43 percent to 35 percent, and she led by 7 points in Florida, 44 percent to 37 percent, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

She also led Mr. Trump by 6 points in North Carolina, 44 percent to 38 percent, and she led by 9 points in Virginia, 44 percent to 35 percent.

“With 66 electoral votes at stake in these four states, Donald Trump is playing catch-up against Hillary Clinton,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/15/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-colorado-florid/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

 

 

As Dallas Cowboys former star quarterback Don Meredith on ABC Monday Night Football liked to intone in the closing moments of a one-sided contest, during his long tenure in the broadcast booth, "Turn out the lights...the party's oooverr." 

 

RIP GOP.

 

Gone Old Party.

 

It's a statistical tie in bright red Georgia. She's running ahead in red Missouri. Vlad can't be happy about all of this. 

 

[Buzzz]

Trump is ignorant and his ignorant fan base loves his ignorant remarks. 

The only way he can offend them is if he suddenly grows a brain. 

[iReason]

Battleground polls: Clinton tops Trump post-convention 

"Hillary Clinton holds commanding leads over Donald Trump in a trio of states that the GOP nominee has made central to his White House bid, according to polls released Thursday following both party's national conventions last month, and has maintained an advantage in the perennial swing state of Florida."

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/04/politics/clinton-leads-trump-three-states/index.html

The splendid Downward Spiral. 

 

[Jingthing]

It's kind of ironic that trump is probably going down via a weapon he has used so effectively against so many others. Negative branding.

His crooked Hillary may indeed be  believed, but INSANITY Donald trumps that. 

Push come to shove, Americans are always going to prefer (albeit with a lot of nose holding) a normally lying professional and perceived to be mentally COMPETENT politician to an off the rails MADMAN.

The MADMAN label is sticking.

All the Hillary campaign needs to do is to maintain that label.

Now suppose (not likely) that trump now that he's in MELTDOWN mode is capable and actually does put on a show of being SANE in the next three months ... will that help soften the branding? 

Perhaps ... but I think that's what the Clinton campaign needs to focus on now ... MAINTAINING that branding even if he puts on a show. That should be possible with attack ads.

[iReason]

Poll: Clinton leads Trump in Georgia

"Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump in Georgia, a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in nearly a quarter century, according to the results of an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll out Friday." 

 

"While Clinton earned 44 percent support, Trump took 40 percent, in the latest survey coming on the heels of a disastrous week for the Republican nominee in which he has also trailed in the battleground states of New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and in multiple national polls conducted after last week's Democratic National Convention."

 

"Clinton and running mate Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine drew the support of 51 percent of women, compared with 35 percent for the Republican ticket of Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711#ixzz4GTMLAghU 

 

Downward Spiral.

 

[Jingthing]

Will trump EVER recover from this?

Quote

How big is that? Big. Relative to Election Day in 2004, 2008 and 2012, Clinton's lead is more than twice that of the eventual victor at this point. In 2004, George W. Bush had a 6-point lead for a few weeks; in 2008, Barack Obama led by 6 points or more for the final month or so. Other than that, though, Clinton's lead is exceptional.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/paloma/the-daily-trail/2016/08/04/the-daily-trail-donald-trump-s-love-affair-with-polls-is-definitely-over/57a3cf3dcd249a7e29d0cf79/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_democrats-810pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

 

[lannarebirth]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Will trump EVER recover from this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/paloma/the-daily-trail/2016/08/04/the-daily-trail-donald-trump-s-love-affair-with-polls-is-definitely-over/57a3cf3dcd249a7e29d0cf79/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_democrats-810pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

 

 

I'll never understand the love affair with process over substance. The fact is there are two candidates it is not in America's interest to have come to power. One is only slightly more glaringly so. 

[Publicus]

7 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I'll never understand the love affair with process over substance. The fact is there are two candidates it is not in America's interest to have come to power. One is only slightly more glaringly so. 

 

The first ten amendments to the Constitution aka the Bill of Rights establish process as being vital to having a successful republic. The Constitution contains substance and it includes process. 

 

The 14th amendment guarantees the "due process of law" to every person residing in the United States, citizen or not a citizen. Not only process, but due process. Of law.

 

In respect of "America's interest" referenced in the post, the majority of independent voters voted for John McCain in 2008 and the majority of independent voters voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. The majority of independent voters this year are even more solidly for Donald Trump.

 

Polling averages show Trump maintaining a consistent lead over Clinton of 12-points with the independent voters. This is so even in polls that show Clinton leading overall by 7-points to as much as 11 points overall.

 

Barack Obama won in 2008 and in 2012 because there are many more Democrats than there are Republicans, and because the minority of Independent voters who vote Democratic put him over the top -- strongly over the top.

 

Deja vu in 2016.  Donald Trump will also win the majority of independent voters but he will nonetheless continue to get creamed in the polls. On election day November 8th the great majority of voters will give Trump his long deserved bum's rush - straight through the picture window head under heels onto the boardwalk and into the street.

 

Too many independent voters are in fact among the rightwhingenoids who drive the Republican party. Fact is most independents reject the political parties because the independent voter is at the political extreme, not somewhere in the political middle between the two major parties.  

 

The research on it is decades old and the literature of it is extensive. It is not something the general public would be expected to know, however, any poly sci major worth his salt would be thoroughly conversant in the facts and realities of the typical independent voter.

 

Republicans can holler and shout all they want for as long as they want. All they've ever accomplished is to get some Democrats and some Independent voters -- but not the majority of either of us -- to hold our nose while we vote to elect Hillary Clinton Potus.

 

It's not the economy, it's not Whitewater, nor izzit emails or the Clinton Foundation and so on and so on. It's demographics and it's socio-economics -- and it is which political party advocates the future. (It's always been a dangerous world but the party of Bush-Trump makes it ever more dangerous.)

[ilostmypassword]

32 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

The first ten amendments to the Constitution aka the Bill of Rights establish process as being vital to having a successful republic. The Constitution contains substance and it includes process. 

 

The 14th amendment guarantees the "due process of law" to every person residing in the United States, citizen or not a citizen. Not only process, but due process. Of law.

 

In respect of "America's interest" referenced in the post, the majority of independent voters voted for John McCain in 2008 and the majority of independent voters voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. The majority of independent voters this year are even more solidly for Donald Trump.

 

Polling averages show Trump maintaining a consistent lead over Clinton of 12-points with the independent voters. This is so even in polls that show Clinton leading overall by 7-points to as much as 11 points overall.

 

Barack Obama won in 2008 and in 2012 because there are many more Democrats than there are Republicans, and because the minority of Independent voters who vote Democratic put him over the top -- strongly over the top.

 

Deja vu in 2016.  Donald Trump will also win the majority of independent voters but he will nonetheless continue to get creamed in the polls. On election day November 8th the great majority of voters will give Trump his long deserved bum's rush - straight through the picture window head under heels onto the boardwalk and into the street.

 

Too many independent voters are in fact among the rightwhingenoids who drive the Republican party. Fact is most independents reject the political parties because the independent voter is at the political extreme, not somewhere in the political middle between the two major parties.  

 

The research on it is decades old and the literature of it is extensive. It is not something the general public would be expected to know, however, any poly sci major worth his salt would be thoroughly conversant in the facts and realities of the typical independent voter.

 

Republicans can holler and shout all they want for as long as they want. All they've ever accomplished is to get some Democrats and some Independent voters -- but not the majority of either of us -- to hold our nose while we vote to elect Hillary Clinton Potus.

 

It's not the economy, it's not Whitewater, nor izzit emails or the Clinton Foundation and so on and so on. It's demographics and it's socio-economics -- and it is which political party advocates the future. (It's always been a dangerous world but the party of Bush-Trump makes it ever more dangerous.)

Pew did a deep analysis of party affiliation  Here's a quote:  

 "When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 39% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. The gap in leaned party affiliation has held fairly steady since 2009, when Democrats held a 13-point advantage (50% to 37%). "

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

[Publicus]

2 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Pew did a deep analysis of party affiliation  Here's a quote:  

 "When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 39% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. The gap in leaned party affiliation has held fairly steady since 2009, when Democrats held a 13-point advantage (50% to 37%). "

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

 

No one in his right mind would contest 99.9% of a given Pew Research survey finding.

 

Yet while Romney won the majority of Independent voters, he lost the overall popular vote and the Electoral College vote, i.e., Romney lost the election. 

 

Romney won 50% of independent voters while Obama got 45% of the independents voters. (5% of independents voted for one of the several other parties on their respective state ballot -- e.g., Libertarian, Green, White Power Party etc). 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html?tid=a_inl

 

Yet, considering the Pew findings, let's look at the key states and how independents voted in each of the biggest Electoral College states, such as California and New York, or of how independent voters voted in states of fewer EC votes but which were nonetheless of battleground importance, such as New Hampshire or Iowa. In almost every instance, the vote of independents was closely divided between Obama or Romney:

 

How Independent voters voted for Potus in 2012 by selected state:

 

Romney -- Obama % of votes cast by independents in the state; overall winner of the state indicated by party first letter D or R: 

 

New York state:  Independents divided 50-50. The D won the state. (Romney and Obama split the independent vote evenly, yet the state voted 63% for Obama and 35% for Romney -- Independents did not account for the massive Obama win. Democrats did it.)

 

Massachusetts: The vote of Independents was for Romney 52% vs Obama 48%. Yet Obama the Democrat won the state with 62% of the total vote. Democratic Party voters did this.

 

And so on...

California 56%R-44%O - D

New Jersey  49-51  D

Connecticut  51-49  D

Iowa 55-45  D

Wisconsin  49-51  D

Nevada  50-50  D

New Hampshire 52-48  D

Pennsylvania 50-50  D

Virginia 54-46  D

Florida 50-50  D

Colorado 49-51  D

Ohio 53-47  D

North Carolina 57-43 R

Arizona 49-51  R

Missouri 59-41  R

Indiana (home of Mike Pence) 52-48  R

 

In 2012, Democratic party voters constituted 38% of voters, Republicans were 32% of all voters, Independents made up 29% of all voters. Nationally. Romney won the majority of Independent voters nationally but lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html?tid=a_inl

 

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls

 

 

Note: In 2014 in Virginia, a quintessential swing state, Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli carried independents by double-digits and still lost the gubernatorial election (to Democrat Terry McAuliffe). Democratic party voters succeeded in electing their guy governor. 

 

So maybe this one and this guy look like a guaranteed loser too...

 

In Poll After Poll Trump Leads Clinton Among Independent Voters

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/31/in-poll-after-poll-trump-leads-clinton-among-independent-voters/#ixzz4GX68z8BA

 

Overselling the importance of independent voters

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/overselling-the-importance-of-independent-voters/2012/11/19/1c04b598-3294-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_blog.html

 

Anyway...

So many whackjob independent voters. Not all of 'em, but consistently so. Most of 'em are on the political extremes cause the regular political parties are not hard core enough for 'em. At least in the USA, the raison d'etre and obligation of a political party in government is to compromise. Unless of course we're talking about the present Republican party where confrontation and destruction is the order of battle.

Edited August 6, 2016 by Publicus
Revision

[CaptHaddock]

4 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

 

Turnout is probably more important than the independents' votes.  The Dems win presidential elections because they outnumber the Repubs and they show up.  But they don't do so well in mid-term elections, because they stay home.  But the right-wing doesn't.  That plus gerrymandering is what turned the House red.

 

So, it's good news that HRC is doing well both in national polls, which don't matter, and in state polls which do.  However, the news from the Senate races is not so encouraging.  I see some poll aggregators put it now at 49 D to 51 R or 50 to 50.  Assuming Kaine becomes the President of the Senate, 50 to 50 is enough, but 49 isn't.  In additional to the polling numbers, there is the ominous news that the Koch brothers, with their $750 million warchest and election staff of 1200, are devoting all their resources to the Senate and House races and won't give Trump a nickel.  That is a huge amount of money to dump into the Senate campaigns, probably unprecedented.  Plus we don't know how much of what the RNC has been raising will go to Trump and how much to the Senate.  So, it's worrisome.

 

If HRC wins the White House, but the Repubs retain the Senate we will have our first constitutional crisis immediately after Jan. 20 when President Hillary submits her first nomination for the vacant Supreme Court seat and Mitch McConnell refuses to hold hearings on the nominee indefinitely.  If the Republican Senate blocks filling the vacancy then perhaps the next vacancy to arise will restore a right-wing majority on a seven-member Court.  McConnell will have no reason not to take such a step since if the Republicans do retain the Senate it means the voters will not have punished them for refusing to consider Obama's nominee. 

[iReason]

It's going to be a historic pummeling. The party's over. Turn out the lights.

After all, it keeps getting consistently worse for the Bloviator...

 

 

Donald Trump’s poll numbers are so bad his supporters are making up new ones (VOX)

"The RealClearPolitics average of the polls has Hillary Clinton up by 6.7 points. The Huffington Post Pollster

has Clinton up by 7.4 points."

 

"The New York Times gives Clinton an 80 percent chance of winning the election, and FiveThirtyEight gives her

a 81.7 percent chance."

 

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/5/12386128/trump-clinton-biased-polls

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

[boomerangutang]

Imagine it's Thanksgiving.  The Republican family is out in the backyard playing croquet.  Someone looks at the house and sees smoke coming out the kitchen window.  She screams while everyone runs in to ascertain the problem.   The turkey is charred black in the oven.  Trump is the turkey.

Edited August 6, 2016 by boomerangutang

[thaihome]

On 8/3/2016 at 7:19 AM, Boon Mee said:

And the press polls are always right.

 

That was not actually a poll. It was a premature prediction made against a hard copy early edition  newspaper deadline. In fact, polls have not been wrong in predicting winner ever, they have only been wrong about margin of winning. 

 

Also, the difference between political pundits predictions  and polls seems to escape you. All polls had trump ahead in the primary virtually since he announced his campaign.  Many pundits predicted he would fail, dispite what the polls said all year. The polls were right, the pundits were wrong. 

 

The only poll that said Romney was going to win in 2012 up to election evening was the one quoted by Fox news right to Rommeny's concession speech. I do agree it is still a week or so too soon for the polls to have settled down from the conventions. By end of the month it will become obvious who will win.  Of course you can still hold out hope that the illegally hackers, sponsored by Putin, have something more irrelevant on Hillary.

 

 Aren't you proud of yourself for hoping the US presidential election may decided by Putin's minions and their illegal intrusion to a private email system. This must be the "republican values" one hears so much about

TH 

 

 

[ilostmypassword]

7 minutes ago, thaihome said:

 

That was not actually a poll. It was a premature prediction made against a hard copy early edition  newspaper deadline. In fact, polls have not been wrong in predicting winner ever, they have only been wrong about margin of winning. 

 

Also, the difference between political pundits predictions  and polls seems to escape you. All polls had trump ahead in the primary virtually since he announced his campaign.  Many pundits predicted he would fail, dispite what the polls said all year. The polls were right, the pundits were wrong. 

 

The only poll that said Romney was going to win in 2012 up to election evening was the one quoted by Fox news right to Rommeny's concession speech. I do agree it is still a week or so too soon for the polls to have settled down from the conventions. By end of the month it will become obvious who will win.  Of course you can still hold out hope that the illegally hackers, sponsored by Putin, have something more irrelevant on Hillary.

 

 Aren't you proud of yourself for hoping the US presidential election may decided by Putin's minions and their illegal intrusion to a private email system. This must be the "republican values" one hears so much about

TH 

 

 

As much as I agree with most of what you wrote, the fact is that Gallup did predict that Dewey would beat Truman.

http://articles.latimes.com/1998/nov/01/news/mn-38174

[thaihome]

6 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

As much as I agree with most of what you wrote, the fact is that Gallup did predict that Dewey would beat Truman.

http://articles.latimes.com/1998/nov/01/news/mn-38174

 

We stopped polling a few weeks too soon," said George Gallup Jr., co-chairman of the Gallup organization and son and namesake of another of polling's giants. "We had been lulled into thinking that nothing much changes in the last few weeks of the campaign."

 

Indeed, the 3 national polls were wrong in 1948.  I stand corrected and plead guilty to a bit of hyperbole in my statement the polls have never been wrong. Once some 60+ years ago they missed.?

TH 

 

 

[boomerangutang]

Trump disdains teleprompters, yet now uses them religiously

 

Trump voted Democrat and donated to HRC's prior campaigns, yet now trashes her.  Similar for Bill and Obama.

 

Trump was in favor of abortions, now he's against them.  Trump advocated punishing women who seek abortions.  Then he changed his mind.

 

Trump called for the death penalty for some young alleged rapists.  Due to Trump's campaign, the boys were given harsh multi-year sentences.  Years later, it was proven the boys were not guilty.  Of course, Trump never apologized, but he probably influenced the harsh sentence.  At the time he was demonizing the boys, Trump was violently raping his wife Ivana.  It's not 'alleged' - it's in actual sworn court statements by Ivana herself.

 

Trump says he's in favor of 'America First' and keeping troops at home.  Yet, on the other side of his mouth he says he'll 'bomb the hell out of ISIS' while considering 'boots on the ground.'   Which is it?

 

Trump claims he would never accept any outside/PAC money, and churlishly put down other candidates that did.  Now he's on his knees begging for PAC money and rich peoples' donations.

 

He's a walking talking contradiction and would be dangerous for America, Americans, and the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Publicus]

2 hours ago, iReason said:

It's going to be a historic pummeling. The party's over. Turn out the lights.

After all, it keeps getting consistently worse for the Bloviator...

 

 

Donald Trump’s poll numbers are so bad his supporters are making up new ones (VOX)

"The RealClearPolitics average of the polls has Hillary Clinton up by 6.7 points. The Huffington Post Pollster

has Clinton up by 7.4 points."

 

"The New York Times gives Clinton an 80 percent chance of winning the election, and FiveThirtyEight gives her

a 81.7 percent chance."

 

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/5/12386128/trump-clinton-biased-polls

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

 

 

As the poster Pinot likes to point out and much to our pleasure, the next Republican president hasn't been born yet.

 

The new McClatchy/Marist poll shows that among voters under 30, Hillary Clinton leads with 41%, followed by Gary Johnson at 23%, Jill Stein at 16% and Donald Trump at 9%.

 

And there is also this..

 

“Donald Trump is Todd Akin. He is Richard Mourdock and Sharron Angle. But that is really not fair to Akin, Mourdock and Angle. They weren’t nuts. They had political views and others that made them unelectable. With Donald Trump, it is instability. He is an absurd candidate for president. He is a neutron bomb that has gone off in the Republican Party that is destroying anyone near him.”

 

— GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, quoted by the Huffington Post.

 

The Great Republican 2016 Train Wreck.

 

RIP GOP.

 

Gone Old Party.

 

(Looking forward already to the headline in Breitbart: Trump Defeats Clinton   )

[CaptHaddock]

7 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

 

As the poster Pinot likes to point out and much to our pleasure, the next Republican president hasn't been born yet.

 

The new McClatchy/Marist poll shows that among voters under 30, Hillary Clinton leads with 41%, followed by Gary Johnson at 23%, Jill Stein at 16% and Donald Trump at 9%.

 

And there is also this..

 

“Donald Trump is Todd Akin. He is Richard Mourdock and Sharron Angle. But that is really not fair to Akin, Mourdock and Angle. They weren’t nuts. They had political views and others that made them unelectable. With Donald Trump, it is instability. He is an absurd candidate for president. He is a neutron bomb that has gone off in the Republican Party that is destroying anyone near him.”

 

— GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, quoted by the Huffington Post.

 

The Great Republican 2016 Train Wreck.

 

RIP GOP.

 

Gone Old Party.

 

(Looking forward already to the headline in Breitbart: Trump Defeats Clinton   )

 

Unfortunately, we can't write off the GOP.  It's the party of big money and big money plays the long game.  They use their control of a majority of the state houses to gerrymander congressional districts to give them a lock on the House which this election is not going to change.  They deliberately set about to create right-wing talk radio a generation ago to shape anti-government sentiment.  The next Trump might be smarter.