Thailand bombings: A look at who may have been responsible

[rooster59]

Thailand bombings: A look at who may have been responsible

 

TODD PITMAN, Associated Press
VICKY GE HUANG, Associated Press

 

BANGKOK (AP) — In the aftermath of a coordinated wave of bombings that shook tourist towns in Thailand this week, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's military government is scrambling to hunt down those responsible. The 11 explosions killed four people and injured dozens, including 11 foreign tourists.

 

The big questions now are, who did it, and why?

 

There has been no claim of responsibility, but there are plenty of groups unhappy with the political situation in the Southeast Asian nation. Prayuth came to power in a 2014 coup, and his junta faces opposition from political opponents and activist groups, as well as a long-running insurgency in the nation's largely Muslim south that has left well over 5,000 people dead since 2004.

 

A look at groups the government is likely investigating in the latest violence, or has ruled out:

 

FOREIGN MILITANTS

Thai officials say they don't believe international Islamic militant groups are responsible, calling the bombings "local acts of sabotage." The timing of the attacks gives credence to the theory that domestic dissidents were behind it: The explosions occurred several days after Thais approved a new constitution in a referendum that critics say will ensure the military's hand in politics for the foreseeable future.

Analysts say it was also no coincidence the attacks came on the eve and 84th birthday of Queen Sirikit. The army sees itself as the primary defender of the monarchy and has made clear that protecting it is a top priority. The king and queen have a large palace in the seaside resort of Hua Hin, where some of the bombings took place, and targeting that city has "symbolic implications," said Pongphisoot Busbarat, research affiliate at the University of Sydney's Southeast Asia Centre.

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POLITICAL OPPONENTS

Thailand's military government will undoubtedly probe its primary political rivals, namely the opposition Pheu Thai party it ousted in a 2014 coup and their "Red Shirt" supporters in the north and northeast. A decade ago, in 2006, the army had also toppled their leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, triggering a decade of sporadic upheaval. The Pheu Thai party and its allies have denied allegations of involvement in low-level violence over the past decade, including grenade attacks and this week's bombings.

Anthony Davis, a writer for Jane's Defence Weekly, told The Associated Press that it's "difficult to give much credibility to the suggestion that this could be the work of disgruntled Red Shirt elements loyal to ... Thaksin Shinawatra. The Red Shirt movement as a whole has been under extremely tight military monitoring both before and since the military coup of 2014. The theory that they could have organized such a complex operation under the noses of the military government makes no sense."

___

 

STUDENT AND CIVIL ACTIVISTS

Student and civil society activists have been among the most vocal against the junta, which has clamped down hard on critics, regularly ferrying those who speak out to military camps for "attitude adjustment" sessions. The activists have staged small protests sporadically since the 2014 coup, but the demonstrations have been overwhelmingly peaceful, and few believe they have the capability or desire to instigate violence.

___

 

SOUTHERN INSURGENTS

Ethnic Malay militants fighting for greater autonomy in Thailand's far south have launched attacks there nearly every day for a more than a decade. Analysts say they are the only factions that have successfully staged sophisticated, coordinated assaults with improvised, remote-controlled explosive devices. Although their targets have overwhelmingly been confined to Thailand's three southernmost provinces, the militants have apparently carried out isolated attacks elsewhere — detonating, for example, a car bomb in the underground parking lot of a mall on the tourist island of Koh Samui in April 2015 that wounded at least seven people.

Thai police have not singled the militants out yet, but police spokesman Col. Krisana Patanacharoen said Friday that the latest bombings followed "a similar pattern used in the southern parts of the country."

Davis, the Jane's Defence Weekly writer, said the militants were the only "non-state actor inThailand with the capability for a well-planned, well-coordinated operation like this." Don Pathan, a security analyst based in southern Thailand, said that the latest attacks didn't seem to fit the militants' traditional pattern of operations, but that if they were responsible, "it would definitely be a game changer" that could herald a new chapter in the conflict.

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THE MILITARY ITSELF

Conspiracy theories are part and parcel of whodunits in Thailand, and a few have speculated the army or a faction within it might have planted the bombs as part of an internal dispute or a bid to justify military rule by showing threats remain. Asked by a reporter whether the attacks could have been an internal job, a junta spokesman dismissed the idea outright. Writing in the Nikkei Asian Review, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, said that "Thailand'sgoverning generals have gained a limited mandate from the referendum, and would be unlikely to undermine their legitimacy by resorting to terrorism of this kind, whatever the skeptics may say."

 

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-08-14

[Plutojames88]

Certainly the military  are capable of killing innocents ...

But this hurts their interests ....

unless its about more Witch hunts of reds?

 

And yes ISIS might be assisting local Muslims in their logistics taking the fight to them further north in an attempt to harm tourism Thus the powers that be.

But the devices are too small .?

 

But more than likely "" Freedom Fighters "" realising the Nation is in need of direct confrontation with the ruling classes are fed up of waiting for international support.

Students .

 

With backers .....

Maybe even paid thugs by family members of gaoled Reds ?

 

Are their methods good or just ? 

 

No .

But if it is to be a civil strife to cause mass rebellion than this might be the cost of destabilising the status Quo and speed up events to its natural conclusion ...

Which will be the arrest and Trails of the junta on Treason and executions of those caught alive.

It might take years but its seemingly logical that this will occur in modern day 21st century.....

The current system can't  be maintained .

[Caps]

I find it strange that no one has yet claimed responsibility.  As it seems to be the norm nowadays (claiming).   I think if it was ISIS they would have said by now 

[craigt3365]

In the Post, they are reporting they caught the person who set a building on fire.  A worker from Chiang Mai.  I hope they find out who was behind this.  Sick individuals.

[harada]

No mention of the Uyghurs, letting a few bombs of in the south would be logical, it would direct suspicion onto others.

[waldroj]

One can be excused for thinking we've seen and heard it all before.

 

While AP (and other media sources) can speculate all they like, the junta needs to choose its words very carefully if they are to avoid history repeating (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/02/headlines/headlines_30023083.php & http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/04/national/national_30023239.php).

[smedly]

30 minutes ago, Caps said:

I find it strange that no one has yet claimed responsibility.  As it seems to be the norm nowadays (claiming).   I think if it was ISIS they would have said by now 

correct, terrorists want to claim responsibility otherwise what would be the point and this would include those in the deep south

 

Whoever did this doesn't want to be associated with it but wants the effect - sounds more like someone with an axe to grind rather than someone with a specific cause.

 

As for the expertise to build such devices - although there is a degree of complexity with such a device using a mobile to detonate it is not terribly difficult.

[NongKhaiKid]

Just imagine the situation where the BIB and military actually identify the bombers,   the real ones,    and they prove to be not what's wanted for the junta's purposes.

Decisions, decisions  !

[halloween]

I take the arrest of the CM native in Nakhon Si with a grain of salt as he had a legitimate reason for being there. Given the junta's claims that the bombing was political, could be a dangerous time for northeners to be in the south. 

 

I'm giving the g/f an alibi.

[Shawn0000]

57 minutes ago, Plutojames88 said:

Certainly the military  are capable of killing innocents ...

But this hurts their interests ....

unless its about more Witch hunts of reds?

 

And yes ISIS might be assisting local Muslims in their logistics taking the fight to them further north in an attempt to harm tourism Thus the powers that be.

But the devices are too small .?

 

But more than likely "" Freedom Fighters "" realising the Nation is in need of direct confrontation with the ruling classes are fed up of waiting for international support.

Students .

 

With backers .....

Maybe even paid thugs by family members of gaoled Reds ?

 

Are their methods good or just ? 

 

No .

But if it is to be a civil strife to cause mass rebellion than this might be the cost of destabilising the status Quo and speed up events to its natural conclusion ...

Which will be the arrest and Trails of the junta on Treason and executions of those caught alive.

It might take years but its seemingly logical that this will occur in modern day 21st century.....

The current system can't  be maintained .

 

"Certainly the military  are capable of killing innocents ...

But this hurts their interests ....

unless its about more Witch hunts of reds?"

 

i am am not suggesting that it was the military, but if it was then this would not hurt their interests, militaries always want to justify getting bigger and requiring a larger budget, also this army happens to be ruling the country in order to keep the peace, the longer there is not peace the longer they are justified to remain in power, these attacks are only good for the army.

[Winniedapu]

41 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

In the Post, they are reporting they caught the person who set a building on fire.  A worker from Chiang Mai.  I hope they find out who was behind this.  Sick individuals.

 

 

Well, one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter (Gerald Seymour). I seriously doubt anyone consciously feels they are engaging in sick or terrorist behaviour by choice, they'll all think they have just cause.

 

Winnie

[Shawn0000]

22 minutes ago, Plutojames88 said:

One thing is certain the Ruling elites will instruct the military to gaol and get rid of as many of their feared opponents in their kangaroo courts as Possible . ( Fearing an uprising)

 

The message on August the 12th was meant to send a shudder down the elites spine, that they are not entirely safe.

 

And ironically the subsequent witch hunts will only make them ( the elites ) less so , as the masses edge closer to spitting the dummy

 

Wouldnt that have been more effective had they targeted the elites rather than tourists and market stall holders?  The only thing these attacks did was show them that some of their investments aren't entirely safe, hardly worth a spine shudder.

[sharecropper]

Someone said to me yesterday that until these bombers target military personnel and bases, he thinks it's rogue security services doing what they often do here with impunity.

[halloween]

30 minutes ago, Plutojames88 said:

One thing is certain the Ruling elites will instruct the military to gaol and get rid of as many of their feared opponents in their kangaroo courts as Possible . ( Fearing an uprising)

 

The message on August the 12th was meant to send a shudder down the elites spine, that they are not entirely safe.

 

And ironically the subsequent witch hunts will only make them ( the elites ) less so , as the masses edge closer to spitting the dummy

 

You seem to believe the junta's claim that it was the reds. But if that is true, what leads you to believe they are representatives of the down-trodden masses and not mercenaries hired by a vindictive old man and his lackeys?

In fact, what leads you to believe (besides wishful thinking) that the masses are anywhere near "spitting the dummy"?

[Somtamnication]

Well, I have come to the Darwinian / Sherlockian conclusion that it was a Thai. 

[Winniedapu]

10 minutes ago, Shawn0000 said:

 

Wouldnt that have been more effective had they targeted the elites rather than tourists and market stall holders?  The only thing these attacks did was show them that some of their investments aren't entirely safe, hardly worth a spine shudder.

 

I think it was an internecine message intended for Prayuth's regimental associations. It's the only way I can see that accounts for the timing (MOther's Day), and the odd location (Hua Hin) as well as bombs in the South.

 

But I doubt anyone outside of the planning and execution circles really knows. And the police certainly have no clue at all.

 

Winnie

[craigt3365]

5 minutes ago, sharecropper said:

Someone said to me yesterday that until these bombers target military personnel and bases, he thinks it's rogue security services doing what they often do here with impunity.

Could be.  The Post has a new article out saying the government is leaning towards political parties.  They said the places that were bombed voted for the draft constitution.

 

Crazy times!!!!!!!!

[chainarong]

At best it would be silly to nominate any individual or group , the position if the bombings carry on ,  would indicate a lot of support  to carry out a programme of this dangerous magnitude , logistics, finance,  procurement and  planning,  not just anybody can do this sort of event and continue to do so, if it was just a long weekend occurrence, till the next holiday ,  then it was planned  and executed well , Prayut' Junta  has many enemies , and you need to understand that if you dig beneath the surface,  Thailand  isn't the Land of Smiles , in some quarters it is far from it.....................................

[sujoop]

Referendum did not go well for some, followed by multiple small bombings.

 Eerily similar to New Years Eve 2006 bombs (and others) following Thaksin's ouster:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/09/politics/politics_30023641.php
 

 Neither insurgents in the South nor any group made claims on current attacks
(similarly and oddly, nor did the Uighurs group claim Erawan attack)
 

-Directly after confiscating 46 billion of Thaksin's ill gotten gains in 2010 things really escalated.

 Now, facing imminent confiscation over rice scheme scam:
Yingluck hit with Bt286 billion damage bill over rice scheme
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Yingluck-hit-with-Bt286-billion-damage-bill-over-r-30291926.html
 

Who knows who is behind the current attacks?
However, the pattern looks rather familiar.
 

Last, for those  'hoping' for a 'rise-up' against 'the elites' and more violence etc, please temper your responses as innocent people including a poor flower seller were murdered in these and other cowardly attacks, including children in this one:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74YPTIiHiro

[Shawn0000]

45 minutes ago, Winniedapu said:

 

I think it was an internecine message intended for Prayuth's regimental associations. It's the only way I can see that accounts for the timing (MOther's Day), and the odd location (Hua Hin) as well as bombs in the South.

 

But I doubt anyone outside of the planning and execution circles really knows. And the police certainly have no clue at all.

 

Winnie

 

 It could just be intended to ridicule the army having had them just declare victory over the southern separatists, Hua Hin being the home of the Royal family should by all accounts be the best protected and especially on Mother's Day it really should be at its highest security.

[kevc]

Their that much of a coward (planting bombs and running) that their even scared to admit they done it, whoever they are.

[futsukayoi]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

"James Defence" publications are well respected publications in the fields of defence, security and counter terrorism. They are regarded very much as "journals of record" in these fields.

 

Your demands for the " rounding up and persecution " ( the very word you have used) of a the Red Shirts, in the absence of any evidence, sound rather more like a call for a 21st century Thai version of "The Night of the Long  Knives".

 

And you claim to be an up enthusiast for democracy. Extraordinary! 

 

Agree with you totally.  In addition the reason Janes think it cannot be the Red Shirts is that thousands of their supporters have already been rounded up and many others are being monitored very closely.

[smedly]

1 hour ago, chainarong said:

At best it would be silly to nominate any individual or group , the position if the bombings carry on ,  would indicate a lot of support  to carry out a programme of this dangerous magnitude , logistics, finance,  procurement and  planning,  not just anybody can do this sort of event and continue to do so, if it was just a long weekend occurrence, till the next holiday ,  then it was planned  and executed well , Prayut' Junta  has many enemies , and you need to understand that if you dig beneath the surface,  Thailand  isn't the Land of Smiles , in some quarters it is far from it.....................................

a lot of support ?

 

roughly how many determined people do you think it takes to form a terror group to carry out such attacks, also how much money do you think it would cost

 

I will give you the answer

 

A handful

 

Very little

 

and since no responsibility or motive has been claimed by anyone then whoever did this has no interest in being associated with such acts because it may damage their reputation and whatever popularity they may think they have, this alone is a very clear indication of the type of people who did this and why - vengeance by creating instability in Thailand - who gains from it ?  nobody  

 

Also you are likely looking for a group or person that simply cannot claim responsibility for obvious reasons....they would incriminate themselves

[smutcakes]

16 minutes ago, smedly said:

a lot of support ?

 

roughly how many determined people do you think it takes to form a terror group to carry out such attacks, also how much money do you think it would cost

 

I will give you the answer

 

A handful

 

Very little

 

and since no responsibility or motive has been claimed by anyone then whoever did this has no interest in being associated with such acts because it may damage their reputation and whatever popularity they may think they have, this alone is a very clear indication of the type of people who did this and why - vengeance by creating instability in Thailand - who gains from it ?  nobody  

 

Also you are likely looking for a group or person that simply cannot claim responsibility for obvious reasons....they would incriminate themselves

 

No one claimed responsibility for the Erawan attack either, I bet there you were finger pointing at political parties then as well. 

[brucegoniners]

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

[Somtamnication]

2 minutes ago, brucegoniners said:

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

 

OK!!

[dru2]

It's premature to rule out the possibility of Islamic terrorism not associated with the Malay Muslim separatist movement in the far south - just because the police say so and ISIL have not yet claimed it.

 

In Europe, the USA and Canada radicalised Muslims acting as individuals or in small groups have attributed their actions to support for ISIS/ISIL in videos (generally posthumously) at which point ISIL is only to pleased to claim 'credit'.

 

It's entirely possible that some Muslims in Thailand may have become radicalised by Salafism. And consider some of the targets - tourist-frequented bars and tourist-frequented beaches. Certainly not the usual southern separatist targets, but swarming with 'sinners' in the perverse view of radical Islam.

 

I'm not stating this is the case, only that it should be considered and not ruled out because of fears for the Thai tourism industry.

[metisdead]

A post containing formatting issues has been removed. 

[jlwilliamsjr18]

Secrecy is embedded in the history, much like a child not talking about what they fear, so it won't come again.  

[sharecropper]

54 minutes ago, brucegoniners said:

It's Thaksin's people. Plain and simple.

 

Like your post, it seems.