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Investors urged to use caution amid Thai stock volatility


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Investors urged to use caution amid stock volatility

  

BANGKOK, 23 August 2016 (NNT) – The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has warned investors of heavy fluctuations in the Thai stock market during this period while affirming that minimal effects will be seen in Thailand should the US decide to adjust its benchmark rate. 

SET President Kesara Manchusree reported that foreign capital of more than 100 billion baht has been flowing into the Thai stock market since the start of this year as ASEAN economies are growing well and Thai listed companies have shown the best performance in the region. 

Nonetheless, she noted that the continuous inflow has caused a surge in the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of stocks; therefore, investors are encouraged to thoroughly and carefully consider all factors prior to each purchase. 

As regards the possibility for the US Federal Reserve to raise the country’s policy interest rate this year, Ms Kesara estimated that the adjustment will take place either in September or December. She assured there will be limited impacts from foreign sell-offs on Thailand as domestic investors have been the main driver of the Thai stock market for several years. 

 
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-- nnt 2016-08-23
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So 100 billion baht of foreign money in this year with the implication being this has had an effect on pushing the index up but later it becomes that the Thai market is driven by domestic investors and foreigners selling stocks and moving money out of the Thai market will have a limited impact - bit of having your cake and eating it going on here.

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30 minutes ago, maoro2013 said:

Why does the P/E ratio surge when foreign investment comes in. This demand will only serve to increase the price of stocks due to demand and therefore reduce the P/E ratio.

 

This article doesn't make sense.

 

Share price to earnings ratio goes up when the price increases while earnings remain the same, and not reduces...

 

Basic middle school algebra.

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6 hours ago, Orac said:

So 100 billion baht of foreign money in this year with the implication being this has had an effect on pushing the index up but later it becomes that the Thai market is driven by domestic investors and foreigners selling stocks and moving money out of the Thai market will have a limited impact - bit of having your cake and eating it going on here.

The SET is no different than the Dow. The shenanigans are the same. I am sure with a little digging you would find the same thing is goosing the market here, share buybacks, Non GAAP reporting reams of pages to disguise what is actually happening off book accounting. Company buybacks and M&A are the only way to profit in today's slow to stop global economic activity. The B of T  is also helping by not cutting interest rates but banks are anyways as I rolled some money over it it went from 1.50% to 1.25% and the terms are getting longer in length. Its a case of monkey see monkey do. 

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"...use caution amid stock volatility..."

 

Anyone who invests on the SET quickly learns about stock volatility, a lot of which seems to be driven more by superstition than sound logic!

 

In this market it is possible to double your investment in a stock reasonable quickly, and just as easy to see your investment in another one halved even quicker. For those who have endured this volatility, especially over the last two and a half years, this year has so far been very pleasing. Even the recent bombings seems to have had little impact, however, as one looks to the future there is the expectation that a monumental "correction" is looming!

 

As you can see in the top plot below, YTD, Foreign Investors have so far been net buyers on the SET to the tune of ฿109.9 billion. While the bottom plot shows that Local Investors have been the main source, with ฿99.2 billion in net sales, followed by the Local Institutions ฿31.2 billion in sales. There has also been ฿22.6 billion in net buying through Proprietary transactions.

 

It is interesting to note that for the first time in over three years, Local Institutions have started to become net sellers! It would be interesting to know where their money is going.

 

SET_data.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/23/2016 at 8:51 AM, maoro2013 said:

Why does the P/E ratio surge when foreign investment comes in. This demand will only serve to increase the price of stocks due to demand and therefore reduce the P/E ratio.

 

This article doesn't make sense.

 

I don't think I would hire you as an adviser.

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On 8/23/2016 at 9:25 AM, trogers said:

 

Share price to earnings ratio goes up when the price increases while earnings remain the same, and not reduces...

 

Basic middle school algebra.

Investments are complicated by forward looking PE's that increase based on speculation rather than historical performance. Even when companies were posting huge losses (such as found with startup companies), their forward looking P/E's were increasing with attendent higher stock prices because of investor hype. Such was the case with dot.com publically traded stocks in the US from 1997-2000.

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2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Investments are complicated by forward looking PE's that increase based on speculation rather than historical performance. Even when companies were posting huge losses (such as found with startup companies), their forward looking P/E's were increasing with attendent higher stock prices because of investor hype. Such was the case with dot.com publically traded stocks in the US from 1997-2000.

 

Just the typical herd instinct in every bubble...

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3 hours ago, maoro2013 said:

Please explain

 

 

 

 

 

Trogers explained it to you already in post #4, and Srickir again in pos #15, but you still don't seem to get it.

 

If foreign, or Thai for that matter, investors pour money in a certain stock, the price to earnings will rise.

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10 hours ago, Anthony5 said:

 

Trogers explained it to you already in post #4, and Srickir again in pos #15, but you still don't seem to get it.

 

If foreign, or Thai for that matter, investors pour money in a certain stock, the price to earnings will rise.

Pouring money into a stock will push the price of the stock up, but not the earnings unless there is some other influence. Therefore the cost of the stock increases but the earnings don't, therefore  there is a  decrease the PE ratio.

 

I certainly would not have you for my financial adivsor.

 

In fact I don't think you know what the PE ratio is, and if so, you are not qqualified to discuss this subject.

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Pouring money into a stock will push the price of the stock up, but not the earnings unless there is some other influence. Therefore the cost of the stock increases but the earnings don't, therefore  there is a  decrease the PE ratio.

 

I certainly would not have you for my financial adivsor.

 

In fact I don't think you know what the PE ratio is, and if so, you are not qqualified to discuss this subject.




The PE ratio is the price divided by the earnings - the higher the price, if earnings remain the same, the higher the PE ratio.
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1 hour ago, Orac said:

 

 


The PE ratio is the price divided by the earnings - the higher the price, if earnings remain the same, the higher the PE ratio.

 

 

It is the percentage of the relationship of the earnings per unit to the stock price. If the cost of the stock increase the earnings mist increase at a greater rate to increase the PE ratio.

 

It is the earnings divided by the price not the other way around as you stated

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It is the percentage of the relationship of the earnings per unit to the stock price. If the cost of the stock increase the earnings mist increase at a greater rate to increase the PE ratio.

 

It is the earnings divided by the price not the other way around as you stated



I disagree

It is also represented as P/E ratio which is clearly price divided by earnings.
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2 hours ago, maoro2013 said:

Pouring money into a stock will push the price of the stock up, but not the earnings unless there is some other influence. Therefore the cost of the stock increases but the earnings don't, therefore  there is a  decrease the PE ratio.

 

I certainly would not have you for my financial adivsor.

 

In fact I don't think you know what the PE ratio is, and if so, you are not qqualified to discuss this subject.

 

28 minutes ago, maoro2013 said:

It is the percentage of the relationship of the earnings per unit to the stock price. If the cost of the stock increase the earnings mist increase at a greater rate to increase the PE ratio.

 

It is the earnings divided by the price not the other way around as you stated

So now you can finally take that foot out of your mouth.

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp

 

What is the 'Price-Earnings Ratio - P/E Ratio'

The price-earnings ratio (P/E Ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings.

The price-earnings ratio can be calculated as:

Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share

For example, suppose that a company is currently trading at $43 a share and its earnings over the last 12 months were $1.95 per share. The P/E ratio for the stock could then be calculated as 43/1.95, or 22.05.

Edited by Anthony5
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