Exporters voice concern of export contraction this year

 

 

BANGKOK: -- The private sector has voiced concern that exports will continue to contract this year, making the country's export sector to sustain negative growth for four years in a row.

 

Chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council Mr Nopporn Thepsittha said that July exports exports this year contracted by 4.43%.

He said that Thailand’s export value for July amounted to only US$17.415 billion.

 

This is a major concern as under normal circumstances, Thailand’s exports during the third quarter always enjoys positive growth.

 

He then stated that if the value of gold exports which is valued at US$ 841 million is deducted from July’s export value, then the overall export value contracts by 8.3%.

 

To make matters worse, taking into consideration exports for the past 7 months and deduction of gold exports along with expenditures spent on recent military exercises with Japan, then the contraction is 5.5% for 7 months.

 

Therefore official estimates are that exports for this year will continue to fall, prolonging a sustained 4 year contraction.

 

However he said best case estimates are that the country’s exports for this year will contract by at least 2% and as such the government must intervene.

 

One pressing concern is the threat from the Zika virus which Thailand has been included in the global-watch list.

 

Exporters are concerned that if left unattended the outbreak of the virus could potentially result in increased expenditures from having to disinfect all containers leaving Thailand, he said.

 

Meanwhile TNSC deputy chairman Mr Wanlop Wittanakorn, stated that from the beginning of this year the value of the Baht had risen by 4.41%.

 

Comparatively, the value of the currency of other competing countries such as Vietnam and China had fallen which has had a significant impact on Thailand’s exports.

 

He warns that if no effort is made to control the value of the national currency, exports will continue to suffer.

 

Overall the Baht had increased in value from the recent influx of investment into the stock market, but if the export contraction is allowed to continue Thailand could experience investment outflows within the year.

 

This will result in significant currency fluctuations that will affect export values.

 

He said the TNSC will ask the government to implement currency controls to maintain the Baht at the 34.50 Baht to USD to help exports.

 

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/exporters-voice-concern-export-contraction-year/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-08-31

That's unpossible.  The government has painted a very rosy picture about how exports are set to take off in second half of the year.  Same prediction every year.  

"Exporters voice concern of export contraction this year "

I wonder why?

Exporters voice concern, well if the baht was at its correct value exports would be considerably higher.

"Cause and effect" something that seems to be lost on them...

if foreign owned companies dont keep investing here then manufacturing is going to slow. taking away tax breaks for foreign companies was one of the first things the army did when it came to power. foreign investment down over 80% year on year.  army needs to stick to its intend job instead of screwing around with what was a working system.

Neglecting Agriculture wasn't such a good idea after all as it forms the basis of many exports. The only thing keeping the economy above recession level is tourism and then they double visa on arrival prices. If you look at tax income and take away once off incomes its shows contraction. Disbursements by government departments is also down which means the government is contributing to a slow GDP growth rate instead of speeding it up. The mega projects stays a dream.

Export growth predictions have changed substantially from the beginning of 2016 to now possibly an 8% annual contraction:

The Commerce Ministry projected Thai shipments will grow by 5% ... this year, while the private sector forecasted growth in the region of 2-4%.

The Thai National Shippers' Council foresaw exports growing 2%, while the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre predicted expansion of about 4%.

However, the Bank of Thailand expected export growth to be flat this year. 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thai-exports-will-return-to-growth-this-year-30276048.html

 

 

6 hours ago, colinneil said:

Exporters voice concern, well if the baht was at its correct value exports would be considerably higher.

What is the correct value? 

world economy folks.... just go to any trade fair anywhere, everyone is saying the same

An interesting point buried in this is that Thailand is on a global Zika Watch list - you don't hear much about it in the local news here - although plenty about Singapore's infections...