Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[SgtRock]

2 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

D Cameron was to exclude workers from beneffits

 

A link to that would be appreciated.

 

[SgtRock]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Its not only Germany that does what it wants - as far as I can make out every nation (apart from the UK) ignores EU laws/rules when it doesn't suit them.

 

I've nothing against the EU (as such), but loathe the ridiculous salaries/empire building/expansionist policies that have added countries whose citizens are desperate to move to wealthier EU countries.

 

We are poles apart.

 

Love Europe. Hate the EU.

 

Nothing wrong with European Countries. Too much to list that is wrong with the EU.

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

The Klingons are off the starboard bow.

 

Even with crampons Merkel will not Klingon. She is a goner and so is Hollande.

 

The EU is about to change drastically, the people who cannot see past the end of their noses just haven't worked it out yet.

I hope so.

 

The EU needs to get rid of the way it wastes money on so many things. The government moving from one county to another will be laughed about in years to come, as will (hopefully) their ridiculous salaries and pension provisions.  Saying this, it will probably continue even if they finally realise that the cost of moving government from one country to another is only provoking derision.

 

Will the EU change enough to encourage actual support amongst the population of wealthier EU countries?  I doubt it and think their only hope is the UK crashing badly enough to provoke fear amongst the population in other EU countries.

[dick dasterdly]

37 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Its not only Germany that does what it wants - as far as I can make out every nation (apart from the UK) ignores EU laws/rules when it doesn't suit them.

 

I've nothing against the EU (as such), but loathe the ridiculous salaries/empire building/expansionist policies that have added countries whose citizens are desperate to move to wealthier EU countries.

 

33 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

We are poles apart.

 

Love Europe. Hate the EU.

 

Nothing wrong with European Countries. Too much to list that is wrong with the EU.

I'm not sure why we're "poles apart"?

 

I too like the VAST majority of foreigners (EU or otherwise) in their own country or abroad.

 

  I never met any poor, uneducated EU immigrants in the UK, but saw the effect they had on wages for the lower paid - which then reflected on the everyone else - apart from the 'top of the heap'.

 

Edit - Hasten to add, that I'm sure most of the uneducated immigrants are very nice people - but there are times when one has to look at how their arrival has affected the poorest in Britain.

Edited October 17, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Couldn't be bothered to read the links, for which I apologise.

 

Having worked in a school in a deprived neighbour-hood, I understand the point - a percentage of the disadvantaged think their best chance is a life in crime/drugs plus welfare - and this has been going on for a couple of decades now, but is becoming more prevalent.

 

Wages at the bottom and lower middle end of the spectrum have also been stagnating/reduced over the last couple of decades - whilst those at the top have seen ever increasing salaries.  What we make of that depends on our own viewpoint.

 

Nonetheless I agree (to a certain extent) with your point, in that the poorest (particularly if young) have mostly given up on finding a job which pays enough for them to survive - whereas uneducated EU immigrants find these minimum income jobs (or less than minimum income) well paid, compared to their own countries.

 

And of course companies are happy to make the most of those uneducated immigrants happily working for the minimum wage (or lower).

 

Which is why salaries for most have stagnated, whilst salaries for those at the 'top' enjoy large increases.

 

Yes, I largely agree . I would just toss a couple of other points in:

 

1) Globalisation

 

2) Automation

 

These are affecting much of the west. I don't have any smart solutions to hand.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

A link to that would be appreciated.

 

EU migrants were to be excluded from benefits for 5 years. That was one of the concessions won by DC before the referendum was lost.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

I hope so.

 

The EU needs to get rid of the way it wastes money on so many things. The government moving from one county to another will be laughed about in years to come, as will (hopefully) their ridiculous salaries and pension provisions.  Saying this, it will probably continue even if they finally realise that the cost of moving government from one country to another is only provoking derision.

 

Will the EU change enough to encourage actual support amongst the population of wealthier EU countries?  I doubt it and think their only hope is the UK crashing badly enough to provoke fear amongst the population in other EU countries.

 

Why care? We've voted out.

 

Nobody said the EU was perfect and many things need improvement including the Brussels / Strasbourg Farago.

 

I hope to remain with the EU one way or another. 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

 

No, that was one of the concessions he won. It was not enacted because of the vote out

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

For the benefit of you and SW, who clearly have memory lapses.

 

The end of March is when the ECB very discreetly, without fanfare, extended its totally ineffective QE program to the tune of euro 1.9 Trillion until.

 

So nothing to do with Easter Bunnies. 

 

 

http://www.georgemagnus.com/the-ecb-and-qe-in-the-last-chance-saloon/

 

 

http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1691291/ecb-has-one-last-chance-save-euro-bond-purchases

 

Tick Tock said the clock.

 

It is all going to end badly and the UK will benefit greatly. 

 

 

 

Rock, do us all a favour and keep to a modest font size. I am trying to avoid you. As previously, I'm bored with your continuous negativity toward all thing EU. You won the leave vote so drop it. Is it something Islamic?

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Rock, do us all a favour and keep to a modest font size. I am trying to avoid you. As previously, I'm bored with your continuous negativity toward all thing EU. You won the leave vote so drop it. Is it something Islamic?

 

Big fonts, double spacing, bold, aluminium hats to protect against harmful EU rays. He has the complete arsenal of intergalactic weaponry.

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by SheungWan

[Xircal]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

 

Nothing new there. The European Court of Justice already mandated in September 2015 that EU migrants can be refused welfare in any EU state and not just Germany until they've been resident in the country for five years. It also applies to the UK while the country remains an EU member state.

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

We hope so, but it would alienate the governments of the poor EU countries.  They're happy that those without work in their own country can move to a wealthier EU country to obtain work.

 

And of course they will be paid more in the wealthy EU countries than they would get in their own country - even if they were able to find work in their own country.  Unfortunately, this drives down wages for the poorest in the wealthy EU countries.

 

Hence the backlash ala the Brexit vote.

 

You have to differentiate between legal migrants (EU members) and illegal migrants (some fleeing oppression, the majority economic migrants). I never had a great issue with the former, but am less sympathetic to the latter. Many of the former are well qualified and contribute to the country, the lower paid ones do many jobs that Brits don't fancy much (at any price). Watched an interview today with a guy that organises fruit and vegetable pickers ... they can't get UK people to do the job, and its not all down to wages. The solution for me is to train young Brits for the jobs of the future that will give them some prospects, not exclude incomers from doing manual labour jobs with little prospects. The UK is a demographic time bomb ... we'll soon have more old people and less tax revenues to fund them ... we need immigrants and a growing population.  

 

 

[Phuket Man]

14 hours ago, nontabury said:

 

Any idea how long the EU will exist?

 

Probably for a very long time.

Hopefully it will include U.K. for all our sakes.

Edited October 17, 2016 by Phuket Man

[MJP]

8 minutes ago, Phuket Man said:

 

Probably for a very long time.

Hopefully it will include U.K. for all our sakes.

 

The EU will exist in one form or another, but the Eurozone and the Euro I doubt for much longer. Likely all go back to separate European currencies, no ECB and a return of the EEC with no further political integration with a vastly reduced EU acting as oversight for the common market.

[SheungWan]

45 minutes ago, MJP said:

 

The EU will exist in one form or another, but the Eurozone and the Euro I doubt for much longer. Likely all go back to separate European currencies, no ECB and a return of the EEC with no further political integration with a vastly reduced EU acting as oversight for the common market.

 

If there is one thing Brexiteers cannot be faulted on, it is their myriad collection of crystal balls.

[MJP]

48 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

If there is one thing Brexiteers cannot be faulted on, it is their myriad collection of crystal balls.

 

Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, MJP said:

 

Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/

 

The problem with some of the forum Brexit guys is that their research extends no further than copying that which they think chimes into their pre-cast opinions. So, in this example when we are considering Otmar Issing, he has some scathing words to say about the development of the EU. Indeed, but when he spoke in London directly on the issue of Brexit he said:

'When it comes to the referendum, I do hope that fear of getting into uncertainty will prevail over illusionary hopes connected with Brexit'.

 

[MJP]

22 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

The problem with some of the forum Brexit guys is that their research extends no further than copying that which they think chimes into their pre-cast opinions. So, in this example when we are considering Otmar Issing, he has some scathing words to say about the development of the EU. Indeed, but when he spoke in London directly on the issue of Brexit he said:

'When it comes to the referendum, I do hope that fear of getting into uncertainty will prevail over illusionary hopes connected with Brexit'.

 

 

Is Otmar Issing wrong?

Edited October 17, 2016 by MJP

[cumgranosalum]

7 hours ago, i claudius said:

 

Sorry,just tell it as I saw it, mind you it must be so hard for those scientists,architects,and engineers,in Calais ,who by the way as reported on the news tonight have been rioting again ,
Must be so nice in luvvie land

Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Tapatalk
 

 

"Sorry,just tell it as I saw it," - QED

[Khun Han]

42 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

The problem with some of the forum Brexit guys is that their research extends no further than copying that which they think chimes into their pre-cast opinions. So, in this example when we are considering Otmar Issing, he has some scathing words to say about the development of the EU. Indeed, but when he spoke in London directly on the issue of Brexit he said:

'When it comes to the referendum, I do hope that fear of getting into uncertainty will prevail over illusionary hopes connected with Brexit'.

 

 

Well, at least we've got you talking about something other than how much expats are losing on the exchange rate, if nothing else .

[JB300]

 

The EU will exist in one form or another, but the Eurozone and the Euro I doubt for much longer. Likely all go back to separate European currencies, no ECB and a return of the EEC with no further political integration with a vastly reduced EU acting as oversight for the common market.

(Practically) I can't see how the EU countries can leave the Euro to return to their own currencies, it's just not logistically possible

I mean they couldn't work out a way for Greece to do it on their own, can you imagine 27 countries doing it all at once (which they would need to).

Only way the Euro is going to disappear is if it as a whole morphed/merged with some other currency but you'd have the same (if not bigger) problems.

[Laughing Gravy]

39 minutes ago, JB300 said:

(Practically) I can't see how the EU countries can leave the Euro to return to their own currencies, it's just not logistically possible

I mean they couldn't work out a way for Greece to do it on their own, can you imagine 27 countries doing it all at once (which they would need to).

Only way the Euro is going to disappear is if it as a whole morphed/merged with some other currency but you'd have the same (if not bigger) problems.

I agree that they wouldn't let Greece out but if the Euro crashed and flattened out, it would be interesting to see how many countries would 'jump ship' and get back their old currencies. Or if a few of the bigger hitters such as France, Italy, Holland etc, had new leaders and far right ones at that. It would only take a few countries to see the Euro be defunct as a currency.

 

[cumgranosalum]

12 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I agree that they wouldn't let Greece out but if the Euro crashed and flattened out, it would be interesting to see how many countries would 'jump ship' and get back their old currencies. Or if a few of the bigger hitters such as France, Italy, Holland etc, had new leaders and far right ones at that. It would only take a few countries to see the Euro be defunct as a currency.

 

" France, Italy, Holland"- Italy???? have you any idea why Italy joined the Euro in the first place????

Basically you talk of these countries as if they are the same or even have the same economy - they all have reasons to stay both in the EU and the Euro - the "newer countries too.......Greece at no point wanted to leave either the EU or the Euro....and throughout all of this the Euro has faced far less a battering than the pound....why do you think that is? (I just got the feeling I've opened the door for the conspiracists!)

Edited October 18, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[chiang mai]

The Pound is looking more perky this morning, "it's holding its own" they tell us, SW appears to have called that one correctly. With that in mind I found this which I think is sensible:

 

"With no one really knowing what a hard-Brexit looks like layers of uncertainty remain, providing the perfect vacuum within which Sterling can fall further. Yet, triggers to further weakness are needed, and those with an interest in the currency's future direction should be aware of what they look like.  New research on the Pound by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research suggests Sterling price-action will be dominated by three main events in the coming months. The first is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (3rd November), the second is the Autumn Statement (23rd November) and the third is the timing of the triggering of Article 50 (sometime in 1Q 2017). The first two events are relatively known quantities whereas the third is less so, and analysts Robert Wood, Kamal Sharma, Sebastien Cross and Mark Capleton think this will pose the greatest risks to the Pound owing to the uncertainty it poses to much-needed foreign investment flows to the UK".

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5590-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-decline-infancy

 

Those interested in the value of Sterling could do worse than to read the various commentaries in the link above, some very useful background and context narrative to be had, including:

 

"Because we import more than we export logic dictates that the currency should fall we sell more Sterling to buy the foreign currency to fund our reliance on imports. But, Sterling remains elevated above the fair value implied by the current account thanks to strong inflows from foreign investors, keen to invest in the UK. UniCredit’s Erik Nielsen points out that we must rely on about £10BN a month of foreign inflows to keep Sterling stable. It is this inflow that has allowed funded our ability to stock supermarket shelves with cheap Marmite. What would happen to Sterling if that inflow were to dry up? “The UK’s current account deficit makes the economy vulnerable to actions and words that could undermine the ‘kindness of strangers’, in Mark Carney’s language, who fund the UK deficit,” say Bank of America. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent argued this week, the credibility of the UK’s institutions has helped keep current account deficits sustainable in the past. “Undermine that credibility, and sustainable could turn to unsustainable. That is probably one lesson of recent days,” say Bank of America. Analysts at UBS believe the Pound could actually par the Euro owing to the current account deficit".

Edited October 18, 2016 by chiang mai

[SgtRock]

9 hours ago, MJP said:

 

The EU will exist in one form or another, but the Eurozone and the Euro I doubt for much longer. Likely all go back to separate European currencies, no ECB and a return of the EEC with no further political integration with a vastly reduced EU acting as oversight for the common market.

 

All these people are either:

 

A. Closet Brexiteers.

 

B. Uneducated buffoons.

 

C. Non of the above and are bang on the money.

 

http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/report/2016/has-euro-been-failure

 

http://www.pitbulleconomics.com/euro_crash.htm

 

http://fortune.com/2015/08/03/eu-fail-greece/

 

 

https://newrepublic.com/article/136124/an-utter-failure-joseph-stiglitz-euro-europes-uncertain-future

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/721930/Euro-European-Union-collapse-single-currency-Otmar-Issing

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-07-06/why-the-euro-is-failing

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/22/greece-eurozone-germans-single-currency

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-european-union-expanded-too-fast-and-will-probably-fail-lee-kuan-yew-said-back-in-2012

 

Tick Tock said the clock.

 

The collapse of the euro will bring about the collapse of the EU. This collapse will be very ugly. The UK, by putting a big buffer zone between itself and the EU now, will be in a position to reap the rewards when this happens.

 

Sterling is taking a hit now. How much is Sterling going to soar when other current EZ members do not even have a currency.

 

Try reading, digesting and looking past the end of your noses.

 

[SgtRock]

2 hours ago, JB300 said:

(Practically) I can't see how the EU countries can leave the Euro to return to their own currencies, it's just not logistically possible

I mean they couldn't work out a way for Greece to do it on their own, can you imagine 27 countries doing it all at once (which they would need to).

Only way the Euro is going to disappear is if it as a whole morphed/merged with some other currency but you'd have the same (if not bigger) problems.

 

I do not believe that that a method of getting Greece out of the EZ was ever even attempted.

 

I believe that the vast sums of money that have been thrown, and continues to be thrown at Greece was a method of keeping Greece in the EZ. 

 

There was no intention of allowing Greece out of the EZ with the potential to start a snowball effect.

 

Just as is happening now with Brexit. All sorts of threats / Court Cases are ongoing in a bid to keep the UK in the EU. 

 

The EU A - Holes know that they are on a hiding to nothing once the 1st starters gun is fired. leaving the EZ or EU is the catalyst for the domino effect.

 

Those with their snouts deeply embedded in the trough are only to aware of this.

[i claudius]

9 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

If there is one thing Brexiteers cannot be faulted on, it is their myriad collection of crystal balls.

 

But yours is much better?

[SheungWan]

The suggestion, which duly appeared in the FT, that the UK government was considering discussing some softer Brexit options appears to have stopped the sterling rot at least for today, but not much of a bounce while both sides of the hard/soft split in the cabinet are reported to be openly briefing against each other. The equally big story now though for sterling expats is that the baht has held pretty firm the last few days. Sterling looks like a continuing seasick ride. Brexiteer incantations (eg sneering at the euro) might help some expats to maintain a semblance of a stiff upper lip but mai pen rai.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

The Pound is looking more perky this morning, "it's holding its own" they tell us, SW appears to have called that one correctly. With that in mind I found this which I think is sensible:

 

"With no one really knowing what a hard-Brexit looks like layers of uncertainty remain, providing the perfect vacuum within which Sterling can fall further. Yet, triggers to further weakness are needed, and those with an interest in the currency's future direction should be aware of what they look like.  New research on the Pound by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research suggests Sterling price-action will be dominated by three main events in the coming months. The first is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (3rd November), the second is the Autumn Statement (23rd November) and the third is the timing of the triggering of Article 50 (sometime in 1Q 2017). The first two events are relatively known quantities whereas the third is less so, and analysts Robert Wood, Kamal Sharma, Sebastien Cross and Mark Capleton think this will pose the greatest risks to the Pound owing to the uncertainty it poses to much-needed foreign investment flows to the UK".

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5590-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-decline-infancy

 

Those interested in the value of Sterling could do worse than to read the various commentaries in the link above, some very useful background and context narrative to be had, including:

 

"Because we import more than we export logic dictates that the currency should fall we sell more Sterling to buy the foreign currency to fund our reliance on imports. But, Sterling remains elevated above the fair value implied by the current account thanks to strong inflows from foreign investors, keen to invest in the UK. UniCredit’s Erik Nielsen points out that we must rely on about £10BN a month of foreign inflows to keep Sterling stable. It is this inflow that has allowed funded our ability to stock supermarket shelves with cheap Marmite. What would happen to Sterling if that inflow were to dry up? “The UK’s current account deficit makes the economy vulnerable to actions and words that could undermine the ‘kindness of strangers’, in Mark Carney’s language, who fund the UK deficit,” say Bank of America. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent argued this week, the credibility of the UK’s institutions has helped keep current account deficits sustainable in the past. “Undermine that credibility, and sustainable could turn to unsustainable. That is probably one lesson of recent days,” say Bank of America. Analysts at UBS believe the Pound could actually par the Euro owing to the current account deficit".

 

I think there is a temporary floor at 1.22 pending result of high court action. Possibility of parliament forcing a more equitable solution.

[sandyf]

50 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

All these people are either:

 

A. Closet Brexiteers.

 

B. Uneducated buffoons.

 

C. Non of the above and are bang on the money.

 

http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/report/2016/has-euro-been-failure

 

http://www.pitbulleconomics.com/euro_crash.htm

 

http://fortune.com/2015/08/03/eu-fail-greece/

 

 

https://newrepublic.com/article/136124/an-utter-failure-joseph-stiglitz-euro-europes-uncertain-future

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/721930/Euro-European-Union-collapse-single-currency-Otmar-Issing

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-07-06/why-the-euro-is-failing

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/22/greece-eurozone-germans-single-currency

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-european-union-expanded-too-fast-and-will-probably-fail-lee-kuan-yew-said-back-in-2012

 

Tick Tock said the clock.

 

The collapse of the euro will bring about the collapse of the EU. This collapse will be very ugly. The UK, by putting a big buffer zone between itself and the EU now, will be in a position to reap the rewards when this happens.

 

Sterling is taking a hit now. How much is Sterling going to soar when other current EZ members do not even have a currency.

 

Try reading, digesting and looking past the end of your noses.

 

Delusional, investors would just look to the other 5 reserve currencies.