Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

For the head in the sand Brigade.

 

Deutsche Bank has just made another statement of Denial

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/deutsche-bank-moves-to-quash-rumors-its-quitting-wall-street.html

 

Some people would do well to acquaint themselves with the dire straits that DB is actually in.

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a8c18db2-5400-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

 

7000 separate lawsuits and regulatory actions. Not bad going for a banking system that is losing Billions annually.

 

Time is not on the side of the EU / EZ or euro. If I were May I would be putting off triggering A50 until the end of 2017.

 

Sit tight and watch what happens in 2017.

 

For anyone who may be in any doubt that Hollande will be given the boot in 2017.

 

Have a read of this. It is brilliant.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917

 

Sing it one more time Dylan.

 

 

Sorry for not responding to the thrust of your post, but perhaps May thinks it makes sense to wait a while for the EU financial situation/open borders policy etc. etc. to hit home to the EU bureaucrats and voting public in EU countries?

 

Perhaps she also thinks that invoking article 50 (making it even more clear of the UKs intention to leave the EU), will encourage the population of other EU countries to vote out their politicians taking a hard line stance on the things they too (the voting public) dislike about the EU?

 

Pure speculation obviously, but it seems a plausible theory to me.

[Laughing Gravy]

13 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Somebody else posted something along the same lines - unemployment figures falling.

 

The trouble is that:-

1) we don't know how many of these are part-time jobs

2) how many of the 'newly' employed have British passports and

3) unemployment figures have been manipulated for decades (?) to show reduced unemployed statistics.

 

I'm suprised that wages have grown by 2.3% though, but as I'm a cynical bastard - would like to know how this statistic has been calculated.

Yes I agree the figures have been massaged and manipulated for years. My point DD that even from the pro remain paper 'The Times' things are not as bad as some TV Posters  and George Osborne would have us believe.

[SgtRock]

18 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Somebody else posted something along the same lines - unemployment figures falling.

 

The trouble is that:-

1) we don't know how many of these are part-time jobs

2) how many of the 'newly' employed have British passports and

3) unemployment figures have been manipulated for decades (?) to show reduced unemployed statistics.

 

I'm suprised that wages have grown by 2.3% though, but as I'm a cynical bastard - would like to know how this statistic has been calculated.

 

I posted this yesterday.

 

17 hours ago, SgtRock said:

UK unemployment at an 11 year low, surely great news ?

 

No, not quite

 

Quote

“There are continued employment gains with people still joining the labour market out of inactivity - though unemployment is slightly up. Most of the employment gains are in part-time employment.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/19/markets-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-brexit-report-business-live

 

Part time work = Increased welfare spending through in work benefits.

 

Smoke and mirrors.

[dick dasterdly]

36 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

The BBC went to great lengths to show balance. Problem is they couldn't stop sniggering when they had to explain the leaver's case.

 

Also they couldn't do much about the appearance or speech of UKIP types in live audiences. One just knew they were numpties immediately ?

And  yet despite the BBC sniggering and appearance of UKIP types in live audiences identifying them as obvious numpties - the majority of those who voted, voted to leave the EU.

 

They had their reasons based on their own lives and, I suspect, the BBC sniggering only made them more annoyed.

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

For the head in the sand Brigade.

 

Deutsche Bank has just made another statement of Denial

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/deutsche-bank-moves-to-quash-rumors-its-quitting-wall-street.html

 

Some people would do well to acquaint themselves with the dire straits that DB is actually in.

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a8c18db2-5400-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

 

7000 separate lawsuits and regulatory actions. Not bad going for a banking system that is losing Billions annually.

 

Time is not on the side of the EU / EZ or euro. If I were May I would be putting off triggering A50 until the end of 2017.

 

Sit tight and watch what happens in 2017.

 

For anyone who may be in any doubt that Hollande will be given the boot in 2017.

 

Have a read of this. It is brilliant.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917

 

Sing it one more time Dylan.

 

 

 

Hollande is toast anyway. Those interviews will just ensure the toast is particularly well done, and he has no political future in France. Here's hoping, for Hollande's future career and bank account, that the EU stays together in some form-or-other.

[Khun Han]

8 hours ago, Loeilad said:

"I have only questioned one poster's motives in all of these discussions, and that's partly because he's German" - is this the best argument a Brexiteer can put forward?

 

That was me who posted that "motives" comment. If had been an argument for brexit, you still wouldn't have a point. But it wasn't. It was a response to Grouse's 'why do you think I post here?' post. Do try to keep up!

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Thank goodness for that, the first Deutsche Bank post of the day, I was getting worried.

 

Ridicule and divert, but, whatever you do, don't discuss the realities facing Deutsche Bank and their implications!

 

By the way, did you get that post of mine yesterday that the quote function messed up deleted?

Edited October 20, 2016 by Khun Han

[Johnyo]

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I think anyone who follows politics that politicians often fabricate the truth. Both sides did in the referendum and George Osborne was just as bad for the remain. We have different opinions on the EU and pound which is clear but I don't believe the people are gullible. This is a major factor that the remain campaign did not take into consideration. The mainstream media (BBC, Sky) were very biased towards the remain as were major corporations.  There is lots of evidence for this. They all forgot one major thing, people are not stupid or gullible and they see things for themselves, if not we would have an overwhelming remain win, which we didn't.

 

Spot on Gravy.

[Ace of Pop]

 
Ridicule and divert, but, whatever you do, don't discuss the realities facing Deutsche Bank and their implications!
 
By the way, did you get that post of mine yesterday that the quote function messed up deleted?

As most see it the Arabs won't support it anymore


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[sandyf]

The brexiteers have little choice other than to shrug off the effects of the falling pound, after all they brought it on themselves. In due course they will shrug off inflation, prices rises and all the other side effects.

They are secure in the knowledge that the rest of Europe is about to fall apart and the grass will be greener on the other side.

The reality is that there was never any green grass available, only yellow or brown, and this hypocritical prime minister is determined to ignore the warning signs and march everyone into the brown stuff.

[AlexRich]

13 hours ago, jpinx said:

As I said ... "The rates of GBP exchange are no indication of the performance of the UK...."   Brexit has been just another event amongst many, but it has not changed the physical output of the workforce in UK.   With so much meddling with currencies by many national central banks it's reall not a good indicator of anything - other than how much your exported pension is worth abroad.  The heading is "... lowest level since 1985."  but it is hard to discuss such an ambiguous topic since we have no idea what the OP was comparing Sterling with -- US$?  Gold? Roubles?  Oil prices?

 

In terms of the comparator, the dollar would do, but you could practically compare it to any other currency. South African finance minister being investigated and the Rand outperforms GBP?

 

i agree that many factors influence a currency, but in this particular situation the vote and concerns about the UK's growth prospects after a so-called hard Brexit are the dominant factor ... by far in my view.

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I think anyone who follows politics that politicians often fabricate the truth. Both sides did in the referendum and George Osborne was just as bad for the remain. We have different opinions on the EU and pound which is clear but I don't believe the people are gullible. This is a major factor that the remain campaign did not take into consideration. The mainstream media (BBC, Sky) were very biased towards the remain as were major corporations.  There is lots of evidence for this. They all forgot one major thing, people are not stupid or gullible and they see things for themselves, if not we would have an overwhelming remain win, which we didn't.

Sad to say, I think the vast majority of the population (90%?) are extremely gullible and 'remain' politicians relied on this.  To be fair, so did some of the 'leave' politicians with their 'all of the saved EU membership fee will be given to the NHS'.....

 

I think voters ended up voting on the things they could see happening in their own lives, which brings us back to the EU open doors policy imposed/lowering or stagnation of salaries as economic refugees took the low paid jobs at minimum wages (or lower) - which then affected salary scales for everyone (other than those at the 'top').

 

And of course most Brits are patriotic, and weren't happy about the EU having authority over the UK.  Apart from the few stupid decisions that warranted contempt, this was not one of my concerns - other than getting rid of those employed by the EU to come up with stupid policies/decisions - and those who were so determined to increase their fiefdom, that they employed people to come up with stupid policies!

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

Congrats RR

 

You are beginning to wake up and smell the coffee.

 

I would ask you to read my post at 1511. It will tell you all you need to know about the great fall in unemployment.

 

I would counter that it tells me very little beyond the headlines, but I would love to hear your analysis. LG's take on it seems to be closer to my thinking, and that is the whole case for Brexit was built on the deliberate spreading of lies to appeal to the base insticts of the those nearer the margins of society.

[dick dasterdly]

1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

 

I would counter that it tells me very little beyond the headlines, but I would love to hear your analysis. LG's take on it seems to be closer to my thinking, and that is the whole case for Brexit was built on the deliberate spreading of lies to appeal to the base insticts of the those nearer the margins of society.

Yes, as was the 'remain' argument - as proven by Osborne's promised emergency budget....

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

                                                '' You can fool some of the people all of the time ''

 

                                                '' You can fool all of the people some of the time ''

 

                                           '' But you can NEVER fool all of the people all of the time ''

 

The rise of the National Socialists in Germany being a case in point. Not every German was a Nazi but they managed to convince a huge number of the population to support them ... in difficult times extremists flourish, and "the people" unfortunately don't always get it right. 

 

 

 

 

[Khun Han]

24 minutes ago, Johnyo said:

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

From the article:

 

"The supporters of Brexit should have seen this coming. A large-scale flight of foreign capital from Britain in both manufacturing and services would be a mortal blow to UK economy. In 2015, for example, roughly half of all Japanese investment in the EU was in the UK, with a thousand Japanese groups using the UK “as an effective springboard into Europe,” in the words of the Financial Times, and with Nissan, Toyota, and Honda’s UK assembly plants making up the core of the UK-based auto industry."

 

Excecpt that there isn't a "large scale flight". There isn't any flight at all. There is only large scale post-brexit commitment.

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Just quoting the Times Old bean.

 

But there are friends of mine, especially in the building trade who say that immigration has affected them as companies employ cheaper labour, pricing them out.

 

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Just quoting the Times Old bean.

 

But there are friends of mine, especially in the building trade who say that immigration has affected them as companies employ cheaper labour, pricing them out.

 

Which means that your average Brit is no longer at the mercy of overcharging builders and plumbers who have been ripping people off for years. 

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

From the article:

 

"The supporters of Brexit should have seen this coming. A large-scale flight of foreign capital from Britain in both manufacturing and services would be a mortal blow to UK economy. In 2015, for example, roughly half of all Japanese investment in the EU was in the UK, with a thousand Japanese groups using the UK “as an effective springboard into Europe,” in the words of the Financial Times, and with Nissan, Toyota, and Honda’s UK assembly plants making up the core of the UK-based auto industry."

 

Excecpt that there isn't a "large scale flight". There isn't any flight at all. There is only large scale post-brexit commitment.

Very true. A large scale commitment by the UK government to compensate the Japanese firm for losses incurred due to brexit. No wonder the Nissan boss is happy, win - win situation.

[AlexRich]

4 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

From the article:

 

"The supporters of Brexit should have seen this coming. A large-scale flight of foreign capital from Britain in both manufacturing and services would be a mortal blow to UK economy. In 2015, for example, roughly half of all Japanese investment in the EU was in the UK, with a thousand Japanese groups using the UK “as an effective springboard into Europe,” in the words of the Financial Times, and with Nissan, Toyota, and Honda’s UK assembly plants making up the core of the UK-based auto industry."

 

Excecpt that there isn't a "large scale flight". There isn't any flight at all. There is only large scale post-brexit commitment.

 

Why would any business pack up and leave a few months after the vote? Given that the exit from the EU will not take place until 2019 and no one knows what the new relationship with the EU will be? That's your evidence that all is okay?

 

What businesses will be doing is hanging off on investment and contingency planning in the event that the exit deal is poor. Lloyd's of London now looking at Dublin as a new centre I heard yesterday on Bloomberg. We should compare inward investment figures for 2017 and 2018 to prior years ... in my view they will be substantially reduced. 

[SgtRock]

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Very true. A large scale commitment by the UK government to compensate the Japanese firm for losses incurred due to brexit. No wonder the Nissan boss is happy, win - win situation.

 

Of course you have an independent source to back this up ? 

 

Of course you do, Right ?

 

On 2nd thoughts. No you do not.

 

 

 

[Khun Han]

9 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Yes, as was the 'remain' argument - as proven by Osborne's promised emergency budget....

 

And his request to the German treasury to 'play up' what a disaster brexit would be for the UK, which they later backtracked on when (rather embarrassingly for Osborne) they came clean about it.

[Khun Han]

4 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Of course you have an independent source to back this up ? 

 

Of course you do, Right ?

 

On 2nd thoughts. No you do not.

 

 

 

 

Nobody knows what was discussed between PM May and Carlos Ghosn, but the speculation in the financial press was a way to give firms such as Nissan special trading status in the EU.

[SgtRock]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

Nobody knows what was discussed between PM May and Carlos Ghosn,

 

I know. 

 

Hence the reason I asked for an independent source.

 

 

 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ridicule and divert, but, whatever you do, don't discuss the realities facing Deutsche Bank and their implications!

 

By the way, did you get that post of mine yesterday that the quote function messed up deleted?

 

Stop with the Deutsche Bank nonsense, I care not a jot about it, they will sell some assets and/or get merged/taken over and that will be all - there, I just put Deutsche Bank on ignore, which is where you will be if you alter any of my posts again.

[SgtRock]

Earlier in the thread I suggested that DB was only open for business due to a belief that the DOJ would reduce the size of the fine to $ 4 - 5 Billion

 

I said at the time that I did not believe that this would happen.

 

A little update

 

Quote

"The length of negotiations suggests that Deutsche Bank must be struggling to reduce any penalty to an amount that would not jeopardize its solvency position," Bronka Rzepkowski, lead global strategist at Oxford Economics, told CNBC via email.

"So it would appear that the fines currently proposed by the U.S. Justice Department still exceed Deutsche's 5.5 billion euros ($6 billion) of litigation reserves."

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/20/deutsche-bank-vs-doj-heres-why-its-all-taking-so-long.html

[SgtRock]

13 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Stop with the Deutsche Bank nonsense, I care not a jot about it, they will sell some assets and/or get merged/taken over and that will be all - there,

 

 

Take the time to check out how long they have been trying to offload Postbank

 

That is the problem with having to sell off assets.

 

It matters not a jot what you think they are worth. What matters is what the buyer thinks they are worth.

 

Quote

I care not a jot about it,

 

Are you sure ? Then why are you getting so mad about it ?

 

Suddenly hitting home that some people might actually know what they are talking about.

Edited October 20, 2016 by SgtRock

[Johnyo]

 
From the article:
 
"The supporters of Brexit should have seen this coming. A large-scale flight of foreign capital from Britain in both manufacturing and services would be a mortal blow to UK economy. In 2015, for example, roughly half of all Japanese investment in the EU was in the UK, with a thousand Japanese groups using the UK “as an effective springboard into Europe,” in the words of the Financial Times, and with Nissan, Toyota, and Honda’s UK assembly plants making up the core of the earsUK-based auto industry."
 
Excecpt that there isn't a "large scale flight". There isn't any flight at all. There is only large scale post-brexit commitment.

No single market and the U.K. won't even be in the top 10 economies in 5 years.


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[Khun Han]

1 minute ago, Johnyo said:

 

No single market and the U.K. won't even be in the top 10 economies in 5 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

Stated with complete confidence, no knowledge of how brexit negotiations are going to pan out, no consideration of the EU's huge financial problems and not a shred of evidence to back the claim up.

[SgtRock]

8 minutes ago, Johnyo said:

 

No single market and the U.K. won't even be in the top 10 economies in 5 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

A legal precedent has already been set regarding FTA's with EU that does not involve the free movement of people.