UK economy 'faces prolonged weakness', Item Club report says

[chiang mai]

19 minutes ago, MJP said:

 

Or maybe, just maybe the UK was heading for a post-2008 QE recession anyway yet being dragged into a centrally controlled (by Brussels) federalist EU would be have been forever.

 

I read the same article (I believe), the one to which you refer, the only problem with it is the date line.

 

If only The Pound had not fallen on Brexit specific dates, it might have stood a chance of being correct, as history stands it doesn't.

 

That doesn't negate the fact that The Pound was overvalued for many years, a fact that most TVF posters will choose to ignore, the decline of which was more or less under the control of UK Plc, until the Referendum came along that is and accelerated matters to light speed.

 

 

[MJP]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

I read the same article (I believe), the one to which you refer, the only problem with it is the date line.

 

If only The Pound had not fallen on Brexit specific dates, it might have stood a chance of being correct, as history stands it doesn't.

 

That doesn't negate the fact that The Pound was overvalued for many years, a fact that most TVF posters will choose to ignore, the decline of which was more or less under the control of UK Plc, until the Referendum came along that is and accelerated matters to light speed.

 

 

 

CM, it's my own observation of the situation, I haven't referred to any article. People are noticing the economy here has been overheating of late.

 

Yes, Pound overvalued for a long time.

Edited October 17, 2016 by MJP

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

It'll be another few months before it is bad enough (and the courts have made their final judgements) for Ms May to make the announcement that she so desperately wants to.  Meanwhile the suffering must go on.

 

It's all about timing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is indeed all about timing.

 

The usually sensible, pragmatic and direct Mr. Tusk made an interesting comment last week. The usual "must be hard Brexit, no cherry picking soft options have your cake and eat it from various people. But Mr. Tusk, whilst saying that it had to be hard Brexit made the point that Britain was free to change it's mind and decide to stay at any time.

 

Interesting timing, given the court actions being heard. Of course Mrs. May has publicly vowed to complete Brexit, but if the courts rule a parliamentary vote must be held, and a large majority of MP's vote against it, what can the poor woman do? She will be seen to have done her best, bless, whilst adhering to the law of the land and will of parliament.

Interesting times - and May is proving she might be a crafty and cleaver player after all.

[Grouse]

8 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Like I said (and linked to), Item Club got it spectacularly wrong in July, and they were discussing the immediate future, then! Why cant remainers accept that the particular group of 'experts' that they hang on to keep getting it wrong? Why do they dismiss expert assessments from the IMF and people such as Mervyn King so blithely? Why do they come up with a myriad of excuses as to why so many major businesses (who are the real players in all of this) aren't following the remainer script?

 

Because we are correct and you are making a gigantic error. "Foregive them for they know not what they do".

 

Mervyn is a cynical opportunist with no interest in the general good.

 

The IMF are adjusting their outlook. Good, I hope they are right.

 

As for FDI, leaving the EU kicks away a major prop. Can you not acknowledge that?

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

UK may be ordering new ships outside of the UK already.

"A new class of ships for the Navy to support Britain’s aircraft carriers could be built outside the UK as the Ministry of Defence seeks savings in its under-pressure budget." July 24, 2016

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/mon-fears-new-ships-to-back-up-royal-navy-will-be-built-overseas/

 

 

You think we'll be able to afford war ships? I hear the the theme song of Captain Pugwash....

[Khun Han]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Because we are correct and you are making a gigantic error. "Foregive them for they know not what they do".

 

Mervyn is a cynical opportunist with no interest in the general good.

 

The IMF are adjusting their outlook. Good, I hope they are right.

 

As for FDI, leaving the EU kicks away a major prop. Can you not acknowledge that?

 

But your 'experts' have been spectacularly incorrect so far. Your faith in them is touching, but quite the opposite of compelling, no matter how much you plead.

 

And there you go again, dismissing out-of-hand any experts who don't follow your script, despite the fact that they're the ones who've got it right so far.

[RickBradford]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

 

And this is what is so dangerous about referendums. Now, I accept the result in that I do not want another referendum, but don't expect me to agree that leaving the EU is a good move. It depresses me that Brexiteers, in general, can not accept a single point....

Yes, but don't blame Brexiteers for the referendum being called. They simply took the rare opportunity for the people to express their opinion.

 

The reason that Brexiteers are being so hard-nosed now is the full-court press by the Remainians, proudly led by the BBC, to subvert the democratic process and ignore the mandate to leave the EU which was given by the referendum.

 

I don't know whether the UK leaving the EU is a "good" move. I don't even know what a "good" move means; probably it means something different to each person.

 

To many, I suspect, the notion of being in control of one's own destiny, rather than being ordered about on the whim of some unelected European bureaucrat, is enough to call it "good", even if it means having to pay 3p more for a jar of Marmite.

[dunroaming]

4 hours ago, RickBradford said:

 

Not left-wing like Lenin or Pol Pot, no.

 

But cluelessly "progressive" and politically correct enough to keep banging on about "far-Right" groups of people - i.e. anyone who disagrees with their infantile kumbaya view of the world.

 

Johnson is a politician -- of course he's in it for political gain.

 

I was thinking more left wing as in leaning towards the left, not falling off the precipice! If you feel they are being too politically correct wouldn't that mean that they were not being biased? 

 

Valid point about Johnson being in it for political gain because he is a politician.

[dunroaming]

There was always an argument for leaving the EU and many valid points about it's failings.  The biggest push was to stop immigration and take control of our borders. There were promises made by the brexit boys and there were warnings from the remain boys.

 

After the referendum it became clear that the brexit boys couldn't deliver any of their promises and also that the remain boys had over-egged their warnings.  What happens next is in two parts.  One is that some of the warnings may end up being valid (or not) but it is too early to say.  The second is that no matter what the outcome is the promises from the brexit boys will never be met because they were based on lies.

 

Of course there are many other factors that could come into play and the road is full of dangers and opportunities.  It is no longer about leaving but about reaching the end of the road and seeing exactly where we are.  Until then I am sure the bickering will go on and on.

[CharlieK]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

Why is it that Brexiteers can never accept that their better informed, better educated superiors might just have a valid point? There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct? I found the BBC excruciating in their pursuit of balance. Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

 

It certainly looks that way when you read some of the comments! But everyone will blame the government. Fact is we should expect a hard brexit or no brexit. But we won't know that until some time after March. If it is no Brexit then expect the UK to join the Euro, all in or all out will be the cry of the day.

 

 

 

 

 

  

[dunroaming]

16 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

 

It certainly looks that way when you read some of the comments! But everyone will blame the government. Fact is we should expect a hard brexit or no brexit. But we won't know that until some time after March. If it is no Brexit then expect the UK to join the Euro, all in or all out will be the cry of the day.

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

I think if the UK changes lanes and stays it would do further harm unless it is handled with great diplomacy and with the current bunch that would be a bit of a stretch! I still think that within the next two years the EU may implode, especially if Germany and France have new people in charge.  Whichever way Britain jumps though I really do not think they will go with the Euro.

[eliotness]

17 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

What a bizarre statement. According to this, around 800,000 Scots live in England. Scotland's population is around 5.3 million. That is more than 800,000 so you are incorrect.

 

Presumably they provide a function - then that function would also be required by an independent Scotland, albeit in a more slimmed down and (hopefully) efficient form.

 

Well Thatcher did her damndest to kill it off in the 80s. According to this, there are around 2,400 people working in shipbuilding in the Clyde. While those jobs are, without a doubt, important, do we hold back the nation because of the potential loss of RN orders? Will an independent Scotland not require ships? Will we be unable to sustain shipbuilding without our mighty southern benefactors?

 

Are you sure? The number seems very disputed, however either way, many jobs will be created during the removal and decommissioning of Trident from Faslane, and the opening up of the area to development will create many more, not to mention the removal of the moratorium on producing oil from the Clyde Basin.

 

Oil prices are on the rise and OPEC finally appears to have gotten its house in order, however no economy should be based upon a volatile market, and thankfully Scotland has a modern, diverse economy, not to mention being a world leader in renewable energy..

 

Examples, please, or is this just a huge chip on your shoulder?

 

 

You are of course correct, the population of Scotland is 5.3 million, of whom 800,000 live and work in England and over 200,000  in Wales.  So that means the number of Scots who actually live and work in Scotland is less than 4.3 million.  The English and Welsh figures does not include the children of Scottish parents born in England.

 

As for the other points, I think you are wrong, but respect your right to be wrong.  As for the chip on my shoulder, that from a Scotsman, which I presume you are, is so funny.

 

 

[billd766]

19 hours ago, Grouse said:

Why is it that Brexiteers can never accept that their better informed, better educated superiors might just have a valid point? There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct? I found the BBC excruciating in their pursuit of balance. Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

 

What makes YOU believe that the Bremainers are quote "better informed, better educated superiors"?

 

Why do YOU believe that there are more peasants than intellectuals?

 

I also found the BBC excruciating in their obvious bias and sometime, more times than not the "experts" are wrong.

 

Why is it that Bremainers never seem to accept that they lost?

 

Your pseudo intellectualism is showing again.

 

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, eliotness said:

 

 

You are of course correct, the population of Scotland is 5.3 million, of whom 800,000 live and work in England and over 200,000  in Wales.  So that means the number of Scots who actually live and work in Scotland is less than 4.3 million.  The English and Welsh figures does not include the children of Scottish parents born in England.

 

 

Do you understand the difference between country of origin and country of residency? 800,000 people who were born in Scotland now live and work in England. They are not included in the 5.3 million who now live in Scotland, much in the same way that a percentage of the 5.3 million who call Scotland home were not born in the country.

 

3 hours ago, eliotness said:

As for the other points, I think you are wrong, but respect your right to be wrong.  As for the chip on my shoulder, that from a Scotsman, which I presume you are, is so funny.

So nothing to offer them, other than 'I think you are wrong'? Is that really the best you can do? Do you really have nothing in the way of facts or research to back up your numerous claims about Scotland? Nothing at all? Seriously? You mean it was all just bile and ignorance?

 

As for chips and shoulders, you should open your eyes a bit more - read the comments on any national newspaper that reports a story about Scotland, and look at the seamingly endless tirade of insults and abuse that comes from your countrymen. Then lok for the equivalent response from the Scots towards the English - I guarantee you will struggle to find the latter.

 

Personally I think this is a good thing. The more my fellow Scots wake up to the true nature of our many (but not all by a long shot) of our neighbours, the more likely we are not to make the wrong decision next time we decide to hold a referendum.

 

[harleyclarkey]

22 hours ago, eliotness said:

 

If Scotland does vote to leave the UK it would be political and economic suicide.  More "Scots" live and work in England than do in Scotland.  Just imagine they'd all need work permits.  All the government agencies that moved North of Hadrian's Wall would move South, creating a surge of jobs in the rest of the UK.  All RN ships would be built in England or NI, the Clyde would die.  They may not like Faslane, but it provides thousands of related jobs.  Oil prices will remain low, but fracking will boost the UK without the need for Scottish oil.  The SNP are just full of BS and the Remainers are backing a losing horse - again !!!

 

 

 

Not quite Eliot.....you forgot to mention their Oil and gas (yes, the UK has sucked most of it dry), whisky, fishing, tourism, etc.

The claim that an independent Scotland would be one of the world's richest countries is based on a league table which places Scotland 14th in the world in terms of GDP per person, ahead of France, China, and the UK.

 

Scots are a resilient lot.......they won't be broke...despite many in the UK hoping so.

 

Edited October 18, 2016 by harleyclarkey