30,000 To Rally On Constitution Day To Demand Election

[ando]

My own Thai family up country are keeping a low profile re the coup. They have seen it all before and will just ride it out and hope for the best. They know its best to keep a low political profile when the guys armed with guns and tanks are running the country. However, despite their begrudging acceptance of the situation, they do feel cheated that their democratic vote has been over-ruled at the point of a gun.

Though they are not your dirt poor farmer types, they certainly cant afford to take time off to go to Bangkok to protest. Unlike the Bangkok folks who merely had to travel across town to join the PAD rallies, it would mean days away from work to travel to Bangkok to protest. And unlike their Bangkok brothers and sisters, the up country folks are among the poorest in the country and can least afford to sacrifice the family income to make a political protest in a far away place. Then of course there is always the risks involved. Unlike the PAD rallies, poor farmers from up country who must travel hundreds of miles to Bangkok (at their own expense) risk being arrested and detained as many provinces are still under martial law. And of course venturing into the heartland of the Bangkok elite to protest against a military coup that is widely supported in that location is on its own a hazardous trek.

To infer that the small numbers of protesters yesterday indicates widespread satisfaction with the current situation, is certainly very wide of the mark. To draw conclusions as to the satisfaction level of the voting public with the current situation by simplistically comparing numbers at yesterdays rally with those of PAD (held in freer times under democratic rule), is indeed distorted logic.

The only protest that really counts in a democracy is the one at the ballot box, and that is being denied the people of Thailand for the time being at least.

[hammered]

My own Thai family up country are keeping a low profile re the coup. They have seen it all before and will just ride it out and hope for the best. They know its best to keep a low political profile when the guys armed with guns and tanks are running the country. However, despite their begrudging acceptance of the situation, they do feel cheated that their democratic vote has been over-ruled at the point of a gun.

Though they are not your dirt poor farmer types, they certainly cant afford to take time off to go to Bangkok to protest. Unlike the Bangkok folks who merely had to travel across town to join the PAD rallies, it would mean days away from work to travel to Bangkok to protest. And unlike their Bangkok brothers and sisters, the up country folks are among the poorest in the country and can least afford to sacrifice the family income to make a political protest in a far away place. Then of course there is always the risks involved. Unlike the PAD rallies, poor farmers from up country who must travel hundreds of miles to Bangkok (at their own expense) risk being arrested and detained as many provinces are still under martial law. And of course venturing into the heartland of the Bangkok elite to protest against a military coup that is widely supported in that location is on its own a hazardous trek.

To infer that the small numbers of protesters yesterday indicates widespread satisfaction with the current situation, is certainly very wide of the mark. To draw conclusions as to the satisfaction level of the voting public with the current situation by simplistically comparing numbers at yesterdays rally with those of PAD (held in freer times under democratic rule), is indeed distorted logic.

The only protest that really counts in a democracy is the one at the ballot box, and that is being denied the people of Thailand for the time being at least.

I wouldnt disagree with too much you say except to point out that the PAD demos had several thousand southerners who had travelled many hundreds of kilometers at their own expense. Most of these were poor people who couldnt afford to lose money, but were willing to make a sacrifice. And of course there would have been more of them if the authorities under the Thaksin government had not turned them back either in the provinces or through layered roadblocks.

The point is if the cause is judged important enough by even the poorest they will demonstrate and demonstrate without being paid too. Obviously at the moment there is no reason deemed important enough to rally for most.

[ColPyat]

I wouldnt disagree with too much you say except to point out that the PAD demos had several thousand southerners who had travelled many hundreds of kilometers at their own expense. Most of these were poor people who couldnt afford to lose money, but were willing to make a sacrifice.

There's a bit of a difference between the socio economic situation of the south and the northern and northeastern provinces. You do see far less of the desperate poverty down south than in the heartlands of Thaksin's support.

I don't remember having seen many southerners in the PAD demonstrations that i would describe as "poor", compared to, for example, the majority of farmers that made up the 'Caravan of the Poor'.

Anyhow, i think you are going a bit of a stretch by stating that there is "no reason deemed important enough" at the moment to demonstrate. Things are a bit more complex, such as, in many provinces there still is martial law, and, in the interim constitution is no right of assembly. That has created an athmosphere of fear.

At the moment there is very little we can say for sure about what is going on upcountry (and even in Bangkok, under the different organisations that are/were pro TRT). The existing organisations and networks do hold themselves back, partly because of the fear factor, and partly because some leaders are still waiting how things develop in the future. They do send observers thoough to the different demonstrations in Bangkok.

I think comparisms with the PAD demonstrations are not applicable. The Sondhi, and later the PAD demonstrations, had much larger funding from the start off, a media apparatus that supported him (ASTV, and also The Nation), they did it when there was a constitutional right of free assembly, had parts of the army backing them. The vast bulk of his supporters did not have to travel far as they were mostly Bangkokians. And even there it took many months to gain momentum, from the first TV shows in Thammasat over to Lumphini park, then Royal Plaza and the then the founding of the PAD.

Two months after the coup, with still many provinces under martial law, constant demonstrations that have steadily increasing numbers of participants (and so far no existing outside funding, or army backing) is something that is not to be underestimated.

Only now, at sunday's demonstration, the more influental people came out in the open for the first time. Better wait and see how things develop before judging what is going on. It's too early.

[ando]

I wouldnt disagree with too much you say except to point out that the PAD demos had several thousand southerners who had travelled many hundreds of kilometers at their own expense. Most of these were poor people who couldnt afford to lose money, but were willing to make a sacrifice. And of course there would have been more of them if the authorities under the Thaksin government had not turned them back either in the provinces or through layered roadblocks.

The point is if the cause is judged important enough by even the poorest they will demonstrate and demonstrate without being paid too. Obviously at the moment there is no reason deemed important enough to rally for most.

And what about the thousands of Issarn people who made the journey to Bangkok to have their say during the PAD protests?

What are "layered roadblocks" anyway? It all sounds very authoritarian and draconian, but are you trying to say that these so called "layered roadblocks" were in some way equivalent to being arrested and detained by armed government officials?

Counting and comparing numbers of protesters in Bangkok which is the heartland of support for the current coup is in no way indicative of the wishes of the majority of Thai voters.

Your statement --" Obviously at the moment there is no reason deemed important enough to rally for most", -- is a mocking insult to the people of Thailand forced under martial law.

Edited December 12, 2006 by ando

[hammered]

I wouldnt disagree with too much you say except to point out that the PAD demos had several thousand southerners who had travelled many hundreds of kilometers at their own expense. Most of these were poor people who couldnt afford to lose money, but were willing to make a sacrifice. And of course there would have been more of them if the authorities under the Thaksin government had not turned them back either in the provinces or through layered roadblocks.

The point is if the cause is judged important enough by even the poorest they will demonstrate and demonstrate without being paid too. Obviously at the moment there is no reason deemed important enough to rally for most.

And what about the thousands of Issarn people who made the journey to Bangkok to have their say during the PAD protests?

What are "layered roadblocks" anyway? It all sounds very authoritarian and draconian, but are you trying to say that these so called "layered roadblocks" were in some way equivalent to being arrested and detained by armed government officials?

Counting and comparing numbers of protesters in Bangkok which is the heartland of support for the current coup is in no way indicative of the wishes of the majority of Thai voters.

Your statement --" Obviously at the moment there is no reason deemed important enough to rally for most", -- is a mocking insult to the people of Thailand forced under martial law.

Maybe you are unaware as to how the authorities under Mr. Thaksin used series of roadblocks to stop PAD demonstartors. And maybe you are unaware that they also detained protestors. The police on the raodblocks were also armed. It was very draconian and authoritarian. That aside I do not justify it by either government although from what I understand it is a fairly commion tactic to keep protest numbers down in Thailand, and has been used by other governments too.

Yes there were Isaan people at the PAD demonstartions although most of them tended to be young Isaan people who had urban jobs nearer to Bangkok. You are right I should not have overlooked these low paid workers who at their own expense made the trip to demonstrate against Mr. Thaksin, and who also even upset members of their own extended families based in the Isaan who were more likely to support Mr. Thakisn. It was a very brave thing of these young people to put political conviction over money and family.

By the way my comment that at this moment there seems to be no reason to rally for most is a statement based on observation and talking to Thai people mostly outside of Bangkok. It is not a comment on the people of Thailand who will no doubt state their wishes when they want. Please read the word moment in my comment.

[Plus]

Maybe it might be time for you to seriously question your rather simpleminded illusions on Thailand's political landscape.

The simpleminded answer to the low turnout at Dec 10 rally is that people were simply not interested. If this explanation is unacceptable on ideological grounds there a need to bring in complex theories and present them with great pomp and detail.

Bangkokians had no problem of attending. Only a thousand or so turned up after so much talk and preparation. Constitution Day, coming after nearly three months of military government, was the most perfect opportunity for all dissenters to show up and make themselves heard. Nothing happened. People are simply not interested.

I suspect not all attending were explicitly against the coup either.

Generals still run at 70-80% approval ratings. If we had elections today they could probably win it, as long as their stick to their one year schedule.

Wouldn't that be democratic?

I also suspect that if by next September Thaksin is still free, TRT still posing a threat, and the Constitution is still not written, then far more people would come to demonstrate for EXTENDING the military appointed government.

Paradoxes of democracy.

[ColPyat]

I suspect not all attending were explicitly against the coup either.

And i suspect you are talking about something you have not the slightest clue about, and are just fishing in the dark. It might enlighten you if you go to one of their meetings/demonstrations.

1000 people shouting: "CNS - get out!", and: "Sonthi get out!", etc. is a rather clear statement that they are clearly against the coup.

Obviously some who were attending supported the coup, but those were some (not all!) military and police observers.

[chownah]

If anyone asked me if I support the coup I would definitely say yes and if they gave me a quetionaire to fill out I would indicate the same support.....even though I do not. Do you think I am alone in this?

Chownah

[Siripon]

I suspect not all attending were explicitly against the coup either.

And i suspect you are talking about something you have not the slightest clue about, and are just fishing in the dark. It might enlighten you if you go to one of their meetings/demonstrations.

1000 people shouting: "CNS - get out!", and: "Sonthi get out!", etc. is a rather clear statement that they are clearly against the coup.

Obviously some who were attending supported the coup, but those were some (not all!) military and police observers.

The difficulty for the intellectual anti-coup brigade is the deadlines for a new constitution and election already set by the junta.

It takes the wind out of their sails.

Far better to wait and see the details of the new proposed constitution. I can only presume the colonel missed The Nation today, otherwise I'm sure he would have downloaded the article by Chang Noi!

[Plus]

If anyone asked me if I support the coup I would definitely say yes and if they gave me a quetionaire to fill out I would indicate the same support.....even though I do not. Do you think I am alone in this?

Chownah

Yes.

I believe on some issues in some regions support is not very high, 62% in Isan, for example. So I think it's only you who are too scared to tick the answers.

[ColPyat]

I can only presume the colonel missed The Nation today, otherwise I'm sure he would have downloaded the article by Chang Noi!

Actually, even though the colonel mostly enjoys Chang Noi, it is not on his must read list.

I just rarely read opinion pieces because i make up my own ones, and have far too much back log on my reading anyhow.

But thanks, after you pointed me to it i did indeed read it. And unfortunately, it looks that way. I wouldn't mind your opinion on it. We may disagree in many points, but i believe that both of us agree that in the end Thai people deserve a democracy and a society with equal opportunities for all.

But i have difficulties to believe that you would agree with stepping back to a system where the military has entrenched itself back into almost complete power?

For me today a very telling article was this one (i wonder why it did not make it into the ThaiVisa news alerts):

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/12/12...cs_30021304.php

Thailand's Dept of homeland security

[hammered]

Three hundred demonstrators at Sanam Luang yesterday.

the Nation today: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/12/18...cs_30021816.php

[Plus]

Silly me, predicted the same result. Should have read all published works on Thailand contemporary history by every author possible.

[sriracha john]

Thai Rak Thai linked to most key anti-coup groups

The final group is called "White Dove 2006 - Reclaiming Democracy", and has Nopharuj Vorachitvuthikul as its leader. He has been worked with the Thaksin regime's network all along. Nopharuj led a rally to support the former PM during his asset concealment case five years ago. He also rallied against the People's Alliance for Democracy, which had moved to oust Thaksin early this year.

Nopharuj now works under an umbrella with Je Tim Bobe, a key canvasser for Sudarat Keyuraphan, one of Thai Rak Thai's key players.

- The Nation

UPDATE

White dove group petition filed against Surayud

An anti-coup group yesterday filed a petition to impeach Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont for failure to dismiss junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin.

The 2006 White Dove Group demanded Sonthi's dismissal on grounds that he allegedly had duplicate marriage certificates for his two wives.

"Surayud has failed to take action even though the group brought the issue to his attention twice, on January 3 and May 15," group member Noparuj Worachitwuthikul said.

He threatened to call a mass rally if the National Counter Corruption Commission failed to respond to his group's petition within seven days.

- The Nation

================================

A second wife? This hullabaloo is because Sonthi allegedly has a second wife? They don't have anything more serious to moan about?

And now... they want the dismissal of the PM because he has failed to remove Sonthi for...get this, having two wives??

And if THAT doesn't happen, they will rally?

Edited May 28, 2007 by sriracha john