May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The one I linked via Google a few pages back about Andy Haldane's admission that he got his post-referendum prediction wrong because of unexpectedly buoyant consumer spending.

Your link to an article dated 17 January 2017, a year old, which says:

 

"He said that people were still likely to see “something of a squeeze” on their spending power this year because the falling value of the pound would lead to rising prices. However, he added that it was not “inevitable”.".

 

It was a timing issue as already stated by many, Haldane was even right when he said what he did above, in fact, it was slightly worse than he outlined since the squeeze has been significant, you know that.

[oldhippy]

5 minutes ago, Grouse said:

It's the former

My money is on : the combination.

[Grouse]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/view-from-the-top-andy-haldane-chief-economist-analysis-statistics-bank-of-england-a8011836.html

 

This is worth a read

[Khun Han]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Your link to an article dated 17 January 2017, a year old, which says:

 

"He said that people were still likely to see “something of a squeeze” on their spending power this year because the falling value of the pound would lead to rising prices. However, he added that it was not “inevitable”.".

 

It was a timing issue as already stated by many, Haldane was even right when he said what he did above, in fact, it was slightly worse than he outlined since the squeeze has been significant, you know that.

 

The reason for my original series of posts on this was to highlight that thr best economic forecasters can make fundamental mistakes in their economic models, as Andy Haldane had admitted that he had done. I also pointed out that the UK economy has failed to follow the pattern of his corrected model in the second half of this year (consumer spending has fallen but the economy has grown).

 

Andy Haldane (and most other economic forecasters, to be fair) has continued to get it wrong, as evidenced by the UK economy continuing to grow (with no signs of recession). So, no, it's not a matter of timing, as much as remainers would like it to be.

[simoh1490]

8 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The reason for my original series of posts on this was to highlight that thr best economic forecasters can make fundamental mistakes in their economic models, as Andy Haldane had admitted that he had done. I also pointed out that the UK economy has failed to follow the pattern of his corrected model in the second half of this year (consumer spending has fallen but the economy has grown).

 

Andy Haldane (and most other economic forecasters, to be fair) has continued to get it wrong, as evidenced by the UK economy continuing to grow (with no signs of recession). So, no, it's not a matter of timing, as much as remainers would like it to be.

Rubbish and nonsense! 

 

+0.3% in the second quarter, +0.4% in the third quarter, that's not growth in any shape or form!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/26/uk-gdp-britain-economy-second-quarter-2017-live

Edited December 27, 2017 by simoh1490

[Khun Han]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Rubbish and nonsense! 

 

+0.3% in the second quarter, +0.4% in the third quarter, that's not growth in any shape or form!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/26/uk-gdp-britain-economy-second-quarter-2017-live

 

Oh dear. Aren't you aware of the fact that a + symbol means growth and a - symbol means retraction?

[simoh1490]

Just now, Khun Han said:

 

Oh dear. Aren't you aware of the fact that a + symbol means growth and a - symbol means retraction?

Aren't you aware of what real GDP growth figures look like, hint: they tend to be greater than 1% at a minimum, anything else is regarded as failing!

[nontabury]

6 hours ago, oldhippy said:

About Corbyn & marxist friends:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/a-labour-government-wouldnt-be-as-bad-as-brexit-claims-heseltine

 

Heseltine - HESELTINE - does not seem to be as worried about those commies as many posters here.

 

Perhaps he is all in favor of the E.U.   

I wonder why.

 

 

[Grouse]

19 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The reason for my original series of posts on this was to highlight that thr best economic forecasters can make fundamental mistakes in their economic models, as Andy Haldane had admitted that he had done. I also pointed out that the UK economy has failed to follow the pattern of his corrected model in the second half of this year (consumer spending has fallen but the economy has grown).

 

Andy Haldane (and most other economic forecasters, to be fair) has continued to get it wrong, as evidenced by the UK economy continuing to grow (with no signs of recession). So, no, it's not a matter of timing, as much as remainers would like it to be.

Point of order

 

It was NOT a mistake. It was a lie and clearly part of project fear. I read that in The Express ?

[Khun Han]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

Aren't you aware of what real GDP growth figures look like, hint: they tend to be greater than 1% at a minimum, anything else is regarded as failing!

 

Growth of 1%+ per quarter would be great, and I think we'll see it once brexit has settled. But trying to claim that smaller growth equals recession or even retraction is just plain illogical. Even the economists describe such quarterly growth as largely positive news.

[Grouse]

22 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Oh dear. Aren't you aware of the fact that a + symbol means growth and a - symbol means retraction?

Are you making a retraction?

Edited December 27, 2017 by Grouse

[nontabury]

5 hours ago, oldhippy said:

QUOTE: But this has nothing to do with the EU.

 

Exactly.

It has all to do with your country's glorious past, that Brexiteers are so eager to restore.

 

555 I am relieved that after brexit, those muslim Brits that you talk about will no longer have the right to freely  come to Europe.

Give it a rest, none of us Brexiteers are expecting a return to our gloriouse past.

We just want our democracy restored.

 

Regarding Muslims, 

let’s not forget that due to Angela Metkals disasterouse invite to the followers of Islam, that in 2or 3 yrs time, many of those 100,000 ‘s people will be able to obtain a German Passport. Thankfully due to Brexit they will find it more difficult to enter the U.K.

probably preferring to make their home in Belgium, especially in those peaceful districts such as  Molenbeek and  SchaerBeek, so that should make you very happy. As of now Antwerp and Brussels only have 16% of the population being Muslim, compared with Birmingham 21% or Bradford 25%. 

 

 

 

[simoh1490]

37 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Growth of 1%+ per quarter would be great, and I think we'll see it once brexit has settled. But trying to claim that smaller growth equals recession or even retraction is just plain illogical. Even the economists describe such quarterly growth as largely positive news.

You are seriously deluded Han if you believe that +0.3% represents growth in anything other than a numerical sence, seriously deluded.

[soalbundy]

44 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Growth of 1%+ per quarter would be great, and I think we'll see it once brexit has settled. But trying to claim that smaller growth equals recession or even retraction is just plain illogical. Even the economists describe such quarterly growth as largely positive news.

However many economists agree that without brexit growth would have been much larger. There is a lot of positive brexit news in some of the gutter press as if brexit had actually happened, it hasn't, when it has we will see, the fat lady is still singing.

[tomacht8]

Oh dear.
If the GDP growth rate is below the inflation rate that is bad.
An inflation-adjusted GDP is already more meaningful.
The actual composition of the GDP rate is also important.

[Khun Han]

36 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You are seriously deluded Han if you believe that +0.3% represents growth in anything other than a numerical sence, seriously deluded.

 

You are just plain illogical and wrong.

[Khun Han]

28 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

However many economists agree that without brexit growth would have been much larger. There is a lot of positive brexit news in some of the gutter press as if brexit had actually happened, it hasn't, when it has we will see, the fat lady is still singing.

 

There is no doubt that the uncertainty surrounding brexit (in no small part the fault of remain's Project Fear) has affected the UK economy. Though nowhere near as much as was predicted, as can be seen by the fact that the economy has resolutely stayed in moderate growth. Coupled with a likely interim deal with the EU which will give us breathing space to organise our long- term post-brexit future, I see our future as bright.

[nontabury]

46 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

However many economists agree that without brexit growth would have been much larger. There is a lot of positive brexit news in some of the gutter press as if brexit had actually happened, it hasn't, when it has we will see, the fat lady is still singing.

Would these be the same economist that got it so wrong in 2008, and even more wrong with their prediction that immediately after the result of  referendum were known, that the U.K  would go into immediate decline.

 

 

[billd766]

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I'm very confident that I read news across the spectrum of reasonable sources and that reading The Express, for example, would not add anything to what I will have already learned from reading the broadsheets etc. other than opinion.

 

I suppose it all depends on what you call reasonable sources and what others would call reasonable.

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Since we're talking about The Express and impartiality and trust, here's the Press Gazette ipsos MORI poll on the subject, note where the Express ranks and also where the Guardian, Independent and Telegraph rank:

 

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/facebook-more-trusted-news-daily-star-according-bbc-commissioned-survey/

 

Here's another, this time a bias check, Express if far right they say, who'd have thought it!

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-express/

 

 

I used to read the Express about 20 years ago but since I left the UK back in 1999 I don't bother.

[talahtnut]

20 hours ago, oldhippy said:

At first I thought that your ideas were a usefull contribution to this thread.

Next I thought you had high entertainment value.

I was wrong twice.

 

 

More than twice' I'd say.

[talahtnut]

19 hours ago, oldhippy said:

To be honest, I like "German jokes".

 

That is, "German jokes" that make fun of the people that tell them.

"The Germans" in Fawlty tower is an excellent example of that.

But now I wonder: did the Brits ever understand that joke?

 

Ah where have all the good times gone, when Brits were concidered to be the funniest people in the universe? Next came Benny Hill, Farage and Boris. So sad.

 

Belgians aint got no sense of humour at all.

[Grouse]

This sounds sensible

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-brexit-rethink-eu-referendum-party-councillor-keir-starmer-a8129801.html

 

Who could object to that?

[simoh1490]

7 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

There is no doubt that the uncertainty surrounding brexit (in no small part the fault of remain's Project Fear) has affected the UK economy. Though nowhere near as much as was predicted, as can be seen by the fact that the economy has resolutely stayed in moderate growth. Coupled with a likely interim deal with the EU which will give us breathing space to organise our long- term post-brexit future, I see our future as bright.

So now you're blaming the lack of growth of GDP on Remain's Project Fear, presumably, you also believe remainers are the cause of global warming!

 

And you're also describing 0.2% and 0.3% as moderate growth, not below average, not minimal, not low but moderate.......you must get very dizzy from all the spinning you do!!!

[simoh1490]

7 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You are just plain illogical and wrong.

So you think 0.3% represents growth do you, the red line below is called the Brexit GDP swallow dive

[ilostmypassword]

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So you think 0.3% represents growth do you, the red line below is called the Brexit GDP swallow dive

Growth can mean a lot things in an economic context. Technically speaking, the UK is now enjoying growth - low growth but it's growth. But if you dig deeper it's even lower than it looks. Remember that this growth figure is for the UK as a whole. But the population of the UK is increasing at a rate of 0.8 percent per year. So on a per capita basis the growth is almost at zero. In addition, next to the USA, among all fully developed nations, the UK has the greatest disparity in income levels among its population. So it may well be that while there has been a tiny amount of growth for the UK as a whole, for its individual citizens, there may actually have been a decline in income. And clearly these numbers don't tell it all.  There is the decline in purchasing power of the pound to consider. In fact, if you look at fuller economic data,  it turns out that disposable income per capita has actually declined in the UK over the past year and a half.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14721/concepts/economic-growth-per-capita/

[simoh1490]

I like to read Jeremy Warner of the Telegraph, he can be overly pessimistic at times but he's a very good economist. Today he wrote about GDP growth going forward and he talked about the headwinds we face in 2018, he said: 

 

"Yet despite these obvious headwinds, there are – lurking behind the scenes as it were – a number of reasons for a more positive view. And no, they have very little to do with the supposed “sunlit” uplands of post-Brexit Britain. If those uplands exist at all, they won’t have any meaningful impact for some years yet".

 

The full article is here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/27/dont-believe-pessimists-uk-economy-will-do-just-fine-2018/

[simoh1490]

10 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Growth can mean a lot things in an economic context. Technically speaking, the UK is now enjoying growth - low growth but it's growth. But if you dig deeper it's even lower than it looks. Remember that this growth figure is for the UK as a whole. But the population of the UK is increasing at a rate of 0.8 percent per year. So on a per capita basis the growth is almost at zero. In addition, next to the USA, among all fully developed nations, the UK has the greatest disparity in income levels among its population. So it may well be that while there has been a tiny amount of growth for the UK as a whole, for its individual citizens, there may actually have been a decline in income. And clearly these numbers don't tell it all.  There is the decline in purchasing power of the pound to consider. In fact, if you look at fuller economic data,  it turns out that disposable income per capita has actually declined in the UK over the past year and a half.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14721/concepts/economic-growth-per-capita/

3

I was trying to be kind by dealing only at the headline growth rate rather than an actual rate of growth but your points are entirely valid nevertheless.

 

And the population growth issue - that's the fault of the remain camp also, they all went out and had lots of babies, just to make the GDP growth figures look bad and then blamed it on Brexit!

[Khun Han]

58 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So now you're blaming the lack of growth of GDP on Remain's Project Fear, presumably, you also believe remainers are the cause of global warming!

 

And you're also describing 0.2% and 0.3% as moderate growth, not below average, not minimal, not low but moderate.......you must get very dizzy from all the spinning you do!!!

 

I'm blaming a large part of the uncertainty, which is helping to damage economic confidence, on Project Fear's continuing campaign of disruption.

 

The 0.3% and 0.4% economic growth has now become 0.2% and 0.3%, has it? Subtle. And yes, it is moderate growth, a positive, as acknowledged by economists (but not you).

 

I will ignore the personal stuff that is a routine aspect of your posts on these discussions. Though I will remark that it's a testament to tolerant moderation that you are allowed to get away with so much of it without getting suspended.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Khun Han

[Khun Han]

42 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So you think 0.3% represents growth do you, the red line below is called the Brexit GDP swallow dive

 

We all know that growth has slowed, but has remained stable. But it's not the recession that you were predicting under your old Chiang Mai alias. You have been proven plain wrong.

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I was trying to be kind by dealing only at the headline growth rate rather than an actual rate of growth but your points are entirely valid nevertheless.

 

And the population growth issue - that's the fault of the remain camp also, they all went out and had lots of babies, just to make the GDP growth figures look bad and then blamed it on Brexit!

 

The population growth can indeed be largely blamed on our membership of the EU, due to our commitment to free movement.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Khun Han