Donald Trump is a mixed blessing for Chinese leaders

[webfact]

Donald Trump is a mixed blessing for Chinese leaders

CHRISTOPHER BODEEN, Associated Press
JOE McDONALD, Associated Press

 

BEIJING (AP) — Donald Trump is a mixed blessing for Chinese leaders.

 

Trump's threats to tear up trade deals and hike tariffs on Chinese goods look ominous. If carried out, they could chill thriving commercial ties at a time when Beijing is struggling to shore up economic growth.

 

At the same time, Trump's suggestion he might reduce Washington's global strategic presence to focus on domestic issues would be a gift to Chinese leaders. They could expand their political and military profile in East Asia with less risk of conflict.

___

The incoming Trump administration faces the task of maintaining influence in the face of rising Chinese strategic ambitions while accommodating Asian countries that are being drawn into Beijing's economic orbit.

 

That calls for more nimble diplomacy that transcends the security-focused "pivot to Asia" and caters to countries' desire for a balanced relationship between Washington and Beijing, analysts say. It will require greater economic and diplomatic engagement, drawing on America's soft power assets in culture, media and education.

 

China is "without doubt trying to subvert American alliances and relationships," including in Europe, Australia and South Korea, said Michael Montesano, a research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

 

That's been abetted by "depressingly unimaginative" U.S. diplomacy in Asia that is focused too narrowly on military alliances and is now hobbled by Washington's failure to advance the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact, Montesano said.

 

Over U.S. objections, Beijing has moved to cement its claim to most of the South China Sea, including by building artificial islands and military airstrips atop coral reefs.

 

On strategic issues, Chinese researchers have "come around to the view that Donald Trump is better for China," said Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

 

"There is a sense among many that Donald Trump will draw inward," said Haenle. "This is music to their ears, because this means that the United States might not put pressure on China in the region."

 

Beijing has been visited in recent weeks by leaders from the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, highlighting its economic appeal and lack of interest in their internal affairs, especially corruption and human rights — issues the U.S. is seen as harping on.

 

Still, it would be "premature to write off the United States," said Carlyle Thayer, an expert on Southeast Asia and emeritus professor at Australia's University of New South Wales.

 

"The U.S. has important equities in the region through investment and trade," said Thayer. "And the U.S. has a national interest in preventing China from becoming a hegemonic power over the region."

 

As for the Philippines' unpredictable new president, Rodrigo Duterte, the new administration would be best advised to "ride out the Duterte storm and let domestic politics in the Philippines take its course," said Thayer.

 

Meanwhile, concerns about China's intentions will propel governments such as Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam toward closer ties with the U.S., Australia, Japan and India, said Greg Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

___

How will Donald Trump deal with China on politically volatile commercial issues?

 

Despite his threats of a trade war, no one is sure — probably not even Trump himself. But businesspeople and economists say Washington is bound to be tougher on trade, market access and currency after the election laid bare Americans' anxiety about jobs and stagnant wages.

 

Uncertainty about where Trump wants to take the world's biggest economy has caused turmoil in global financial markets. The answer — and especially how that affects ties with No. 2 China — could have been even bigger repercussions.

 

Trump is unlikely to carry out his most extreme threats to tear up trade deals or slap 45 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, say economists. But they say high-visibility gestures such as declaring Beijing manipulates its exchange rate to boost exports — a step that can trigger penalties — look more likely.

 

"It has been clear for some time that whoever wins the White House is going to be tougher on China by necessity," said Randal Phillips, vice chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. "And I think, frankly, the Chinese government has known that for several years."

 

Phillips and others warn that Chinese leaders will need to be sensitive to American public sentiment to avoid disrupting their access to U.S. consumers.

 

At the top of the U.S. wish list is more access to China's growing market, where finance, telecoms and a wide swath of other industries are mostly off-limits.

 

Foreign governments assumed China would open up as it grew richer. But business groups complain Beijing is trying instead to squeeze foreign rivals out of technology and other promising industries in violation of its free-trade commitments.

 

The United States, along with Germany and other trading partners, are increasingly frustrated that their companies are blocked from buying Chinese assets in most industries while China Inc. is on a global acquisition spree.

 

"It's just not acceptable anymore," said Phillips.

 

That could help Washington recruit allies to pressure Beijing, said Haenle of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. He noted Germany, the biggest economy in the 28-nation European Union, is becoming more assertive in demanding "reciprocity and market access."

 

Washington will talk to the EU "to see what can be done on this issue," Haenle said.

 

Others warn reckless action could backfire.

 

"The biggest threats to the economy stem from Trump's protectionist stance on trade, anti-immigration policies and the weakening of government finances stemming from expected tax cuts," Sarah Boumphrey of Euromonitor International said in a report.

 

Trump's election adds to the urgency of winding up negotiations begun in 2013 on a bilateral investment treaty before President Barack Obama leaves office, said Jake Parker, vice president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents some 200 companies. His group sees the measure, which would guarantee the legal status of investments in each other's markets, as the best way to increase access to the China.

 

"This may offer an opportunity to accelerate the negotiations," Parker said.

 

China's government tried to remind Washington that both sides benefit from one of the world's biggest commercial relationships despite chronic disputes.

 

"Bilateral trade over the past decades has tangibly benefited the U.S. people and created jobs instead of harming their interests," said a foreign ministry spokesman, Lu Kang.

 

Tough talk on China has featured in every U.S. presidential campaign since 1992, when then-candidate Bill Clinton dubbed the ruling Communist Party the "butchers of Beijing."

 

Once elected, Clinton set that aside and persuaded Congress to grant China low-tariff "most-favored nation" status. Other candidates have taken a similar approach.

 

"What he said during the campaign, that's not government policy," said James Zimmerman, the American chamber's chairman. "Government policy really requires thoughtful discussion, dialogue and compromise."

 

Companies and economists were waiting to see whether Trump follows tradition.

 

"This scenario is still subject to considerable uncertainty," said Boumphrey. "Republicans will control both houses (of Congress), which would ordinarily make for more certainty, but it is unclear how many of his policies the party will support."

___

Christopher Bodeen has reported on Chinese politics and diplomacy since 2000. Joe McDonald has reported on China since 1997.

Associated Press writer Gillian Wong contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-11-11

 

[boomerangutang]

It's hard for China to gauge what Trump would do, because he's such a flip-flopper.  He flips on policy suggestions and he flips on allegiances/friendships.   In July, he hated FBI's Comey.  2 weeks ago he loved Comey.   A week later he didn't like Comey (when Comey said there were no incriminating emails).  Now Trump loves Comey, because he, more than any other person, gave Trump the win.

 

Same with China; love / hate / love / hate, .....like a bratty 7 yr old girl.

 

Trumps said he would punish women who seek abortions.  A day later he said he wouldn't.  If Trump says he would not challenge China in the SCS, how would China or anyone else know if Trump was telling the truth or if he even knew what he was talking about?   

[Usernames]

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

At the same time, Trump's suggestion he might reduce Washington's global strategic presence to focus on domestic issues would be a gift to Chinese leaders. They could expand their political and military profile in East Asia with less risk of conflict.

 

Well, the Philippines said they want us out.  Okay, we're out. Thailand doesn't want American influence, preferring Chinese influence.  Okay, we're out. South Koreans continually demonstrate against American bases.  Okay, we're out. The Japanese don't want us on Okinawa.  Okay, let's leave.  Seems to me a lot of people who have been complaining for decades are about to get what they desire.  What's the problem? 

[Thaidream]

Trump and his adminsitration will not be interested in whether Asian governments are elected or not. This takes the pressure off places like thailand and Vietnam as well as China for human rights. He will be interested in whether Americans have access to the markets. Most of Asia allows American access except China. That is where he will concentrate. His first step will be to mark China as a currency manipulator which will pry open the Chinese markets. Whether countries allow access to Us bases is irrelevant. They need the US more than the US needs them.

[elgordo38]

5 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

It's hard for China to gauge what Trump would do, because he's such a flip-flopper.  He flips on policy suggestions and he flips on allegiances/friendships.   In July, he hated FBI's Comey.  2 weeks ago he loved Comey.   A week later he didn't like Comey (when Comey said there were no incriminating emails).  Now Trump loves Comey, because he, more than any other person, gave Trump the win.

 

Same with China; love / hate / love / hate, .....like a bratty 7 yr old girl.

 

Trumps said he would punish women who seek abortions.  A day later he said he wouldn't.  If Trump says he would not challenge China in the SCS, how would China or anyone else know if Trump was telling the truth or if he even knew what he was talking about?   

I think they are waiting to pin the buffoon of the year award on him. I could hear Mr. Xi laughing all the way here in Thailand when they announced Trumps victory. A couple more missteps and he is a sure winner. 

[Thaidream]

The Us stock market is soaring as well as the Dollar. Looks like the big money believes Trump can revitalize the economy. I had thought the markets would tank. I, as well as many others, were completely wrong. Let's see what he can do.  One thing for sure, foreign leaders will be trying to read him to gain an advantage. Trump is clever- he is a great negotiator and tough to read.

[boomerangutang]

1 hour ago, Thaidream said:

The Us stock market is soaring as well as the Dollar. Looks like the big money believes Trump can revitalize the economy. I had thought the markets would tank. I, as well as many others, were completely wrong. Let's see what he can do.  One thing for sure, foreign leaders will be trying to read him to gain an advantage. Trump is clever- he is a great negotiator and tough to read.

 

"....he is a great negotiator and tough to read."

 

If breaking deals and changing his mind day-to-day is a sign of a great negotiator, then yea, I guess he's a great one.

[Dtrump]

2 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

I think they are waiting to pin the buffoon of the year award on him. I could hear Mr. Xi laughing all the way here in Thailand when they announced Trumps victory. A couple more missteps and he is a sure winner. 

The Dow did the Trump bounce and hit an all time high.  Apparently they don't think he's so funny.  Ahh but what do they, the richest people in the world, know in comparison to you?

[Ulic]

Why Clinton talked Congress into giving China most favored trading partner status I will never know.  The US should bring in reciprocity laws. The US doesn't get access to China, China doesn't get US access. etc...etc...It is time to play hardball both with US  companies offshoring jobs in Mexico and China/Vietnam/etc.....You go Donald.

[elgordo38]

17 hours ago, Dtrump said:

The Dow did the Trump bounce and hit an all time high.  Apparently they don't think he's so funny.  Ahh but what do they, the richest people in the world, know in comparison to you?

Yes your right it did pretty much the same thing in 2008 and look where that got us including the richest people in the world they suffered also but recouped fast. They should rename it the Disneyland Dow because it does not follow the reality of higher earnings hiring people and building more factories it just follows the God of Greed. Its funny while the Dow and the big money boys are cheering the real people are hitting the bricks because they have no skin in the Dow.  The government has channeled everyone into the stock market. Its the only  money game in town. The FED needs to keep creating this world of false prosperity to prop up their false fiat currency. It would not surprise me if the government like the BOJ and Draghi over in Europe were buying stock to ease the panic which should have and will be created by a Trump win. How is a 13 year old mind stuck in a 70 year old body help anybody? At 13 I just wanted to help myself. The Dow investors sheeplingly follow  shyster economists who are constantly lowering forecasts like a limbo stik being placed on the ground which well could  put them in the same league as the phony pollsters that called a Clinton win in the election. Keep investing your money in the Dow but do not get caught with your financial pants down. Bravo sir. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by elgordo38

[elgordo38]

10 hours ago, Ulic said:

Why Clinton talked Congress into giving China most favored trading partner status I will never know.  The US should bring in reciprocity laws. The US doesn't get access to China, China doesn't get US access. etc...etc...It is time to play hardball both with US  companies offshoring jobs in Mexico and China/Vietnam/etc.....You go Donald.

Yes a little hardball please with a smidget of stiff diplomacy thrown in for good measure. Its sad to see how the Chinese in collusion with big business have vacuumed out all the good paying jobs from the US and left the US government welfare system with the bill to keep displaced workers barely living. For God and country should be replaced by all hail to Big Business. China exports their cheap crap back to the USA thus lowering the so called cost of living. They also in the process export all their pollution back as well.  The whole of China is being converted into a Disneyland state at warp speed creating poisonous pollution in the process. In time not my time China will have built out to the Great Wall and then they will scratch their heads and say what do we do for an encore. China is trying to impress the world and that over time will be their undoing. 

[Dtrump]

4 hours ago, elgordo38 said:

Yes your right it did pretty much the same thing in 2008 and look where that got us including the richest people in the world they suffered also but recouped fast. They should rename it the Disneyland Dow because it does not follow the reality of higher earnings hiring people and building more factories it just follows the God of Greed. Its funny while the Dow and the big money boys are cheering the real people are hitting the bricks because they have no skin in the Dow.  The government has channeled everyone into the stock market. Its the only  money game in town. The FED needs to keep creating this world of false prosperity to prop up their false fiat currency. It would not surprise me if the government like the BOJ and Draghi over in Europe were buying stock to ease the panic which should have and will be created by a Trump win. How is a 13 year old mind stuck in a 70 year old body help anybody? At 13 I just wanted to help myself. The Dow investors sheeplingly follow  shyster economists who are constantly lowering forecasts like a limbo stik being placed on the ground which well could  put them in the same league as the phony pollsters that called a Clinton win in the election. Keep investing your money in the Dow but do not get caught with your financial pants down. Bravo sir. 

Pot.  Pot is legal in California.  I think Pot is legal in Disneyland.  You can buy the Dow.  Trust me on this one.  Someone has wished upon a star and dreams have come true.