Baht depreciation expected

[craigt3365]

2 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

 

I think they announced exactly the opposite.

 

BoT 'suppressed baht' to bolster exports: KBank

Agreed.  Bad wording on my part.  But they did take some serious action in support of the Baht last week. 

[lannarebirth]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

Agreed.  Bad wording on my part.  But they did take some serious action in support of the Baht last week. 

Why would a currency that is strengthening need support?

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, lannarebirth said:

Why would a currency that is strengthening need support?

To keep it from strengthening more.  A weaker currency helps exports.  But hurts imports.  Currency manipulation! LOL

[lannarebirth]

10 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

To keep it from strengthening more.  A weaker currency helps exports.  But hurts imports.  Currency manipulation! LOL

 

All will be known next week....... probably.

[oldhippy]

 

Some Farangs seem to have adopted the Thai attitude of putting face before reason.

 

Question asked: "Why would a currency that is strengthening need support?"

Answer given: "To keep it from strengthening more"

 

Face answer: Yep, they are going to support a currency in order to keep it from strengthening.

True answer: Oh shit, I said something completely wrong. Sorry.

 

Beware!!!

Thainess is contagious!!!

[Grumpy Duck]

I am no financial genius, all I know is as the dollar tanks approaching a 10 year low of ~฿32=$1 My income decreases and I have less to spend as prices increase. 

I cannot help remembering some the causes or indicators of the great depression

1. Corporations buying one another to consolidate earnings/debt

2. Warehoused surpluses drain revenues

3. Income inequality. Workers fighting against substandard wages. 

4. A hands off business conservative political attitude. The market will correct itself. 

5. Stock values reaching all time highs based on fake data. 

 

The great depression was preceeded by another recession that was not addressed. When workers cannot afford to buy materials they manufacture or even food, shelter & clothing, no one can buy what companies make. It was true, the market did correct itself, it crashed big time. The only things that made recovery possible were Keynesian job creation policies & large tax increases on the wealthiest in society. Incidently creating what was once called the middle class, but the assault on the middle class started with Nixon, then the all out war on the middle class was not declared but waged by Reagan. Radical far right wing republicans have gerrymandered elections taken over all three branches of government, the major objectives of their owners (financial elite aka .01%) is to eliminate social security, eliminate everything that created the middle class and return to the policies of the late 1800's creating an owner slave society world wide. 

Edited July 24, 2017 by Grumpy Duck
Oopsie

[SheungWan]

On 16/07/2017 at 5:28 AM, lannarebirth said:

Why would a currency that is strengthening need support?

......because the central bank can strengthen its reserves of other currencies at a more favourable rate. An expat should try to do exactly the same thing hedging his/her currency savings assuming they are able.

[lannarebirth]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

......because the central bank can strengthen its reserves of other currencies at a more favourable rate. An expat should try to do exactly the same thing hedging his/her currency savings assuming they are able.

 

I'll bet you subscribe to The Economist.

[SheungWan]

49 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I'll bet you subscribe to The Economist.

You would win that bet!

[Eagleizer]

On 7/24/2017 at 8:14 PM, Grumpy Duck said:

I am no financial genius, all I know is as the dollar tanks approaching a 10 year low of ~฿32=$1 My income decreases and I have less to spend as prices increase. 

I cannot help remembering some the causes or indicators of the great depression

1. Corporations buying one another to consolidate earnings/debt

2. Warehoused surpluses drain revenues

3. Income inequality. Workers fighting against substandard wages. 

4. A hands off business conservative political attitude. The market will correct itself. 

5. Stock values reaching all time highs based on fake data. 

 

The great depression was preceeded by another recession that was not addressed. When workers cannot afford to buy materials they manufacture or even food, shelter & clothing, no one can buy what companies make. It was true, the market did correct itself, it crashed big time. The only things that made recovery possible were Keynesian job creation policies & large tax increases on the wealthiest in society. Incidently creating what was once called the middle class, but the assault on the middle class started with Nixon, then the all out war on the middle class was not declared but waged by Reagan. Radical far right wing republicans have gerrymandered elections taken over all three branches of government, the major objectives of their owners (financial elite aka .01%) is to eliminate social security, eliminate everything that created the middle class and return to the policies of the late 1800's creating an owner slave society world wide. 

The Dollar is in no way tanking. It is the THB that is strong. 

[janclaes47]

1 minute ago, Eagleizer said:

The Dollar is in no way tanking. It is the THB that is strong. 

 

If I was you I would have a look at USD/Euro and USD/GBP rates from the last few months.

[losworld]

On 11/26/2016 at 7:34 AM, NeverSure said:

The US is in the slowest recovery from recession since WWII. Never in the past 8 years has GDP increased by even 3%. There are way too many Americans out of the workforce and way too many receiving welfare and food stamps. The extremely long time that interest rates have been at historic lows is a strong indicator of those. That's not just interest on the Fed's T Bill rate but interest rates on home and car loans, etc. These low rates were meant to stimulate borrowing and spending.

 

I have no idea how the Fed can raise interest rates in this environment. Time will tell.

 

Cheers.

They might just be doing it to sink Trump much like they did when Carter failed to play puppet.

[lannarebirth]

So what is the takeaway from this article titled "Baht Depreciation Expected" dated November 25, 2016, given that the Baht has appreciated significantly since then?  Two things: 1) almost every article ever presented here regarding the Baht ends up being wrong and you would do well to take the other side. 2) These articles serve absolutely no function save allowing a bunch of know nothings to present a bunch of bullshit theories.

[SheungWan]

On 7/25/2017 at 8:03 PM, lannarebirth said:

So what is the takeaway from this article titled "Baht Depreciation Expected" dated November 25, 2016, given that the Baht has appreciated significantly since then?  Two things: 1) almost every article ever presented here regarding the Baht ends up being wrong and you would do well to take the other side. 2) These articles serve absolutely no function save allowing a bunch of know nothings to present a bunch of bullshit theories.

The takeaway is that if you are following the currency market, a single forwards projection of a particular currency's movement need to be considered against other sources and one's own analysis. Right now the baht does not seem any weaker than when the article projection was made. The biggest change since last November has been the dollar's weakness against the baht. I should have changed more then!

[sawadee1947]

will it have impact on exchange rate?

[stevedom]

now aug 28th 2017 and baht has in fact appreciated...how come?

[SheungWan]

51 minutes ago, stevedom said:

now aug 28th 2017 and baht has in fact appreciated...how come?

In one word? Stability.

[janclaes47]

25 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

In one word? Stability.

The Euro is at the highest against the Baht since December 2015.

 

 

[SheungWan]

31 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

The Euro is at the highest against the Baht since December 2015.

I think that is more a story about Euro recovery against most currencies rather than specific baht weakness.

[siam2007]

17 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

The Euro is at the highest against the Baht since December 2015.

 

 

 

 

Still miles away from where it once (2004) was, when a Euro was worth 52 Baht.

The Baht is ridiculously overvalued - just compare how the rate changed against the neighboring Malaysian Ringgit in the past 3-4 years

[stevedom]

stability based on what? The forecast was that once the USA increased its bank rate then many billions dollars would be reinvested there and taken from Thailand. Why, when this has now happened, is the thai baht even stronger.

Tourism & economic figures are down. The outlook is not good. What possible reason for the Baht to strengthen?

[seadigital]

On 11/26/2016 at 2:46 AM, elgordo38 said:

1% will be the straw that breaks the camels back and the rest of the people living on a financial teeter totter. It will be like a financial elevator with the USA going up and the rest of the world down. You know the consequences of that. Mortgages are based on bond prices and they are climbing. Government debt payments will increase. Maybe the TBill buyers/suckers will see the light but somehow I doubt it. I think the Fed with their two raises for 2017 is blowing smoke up their keister but we live in a world of threats and false promises anything is possible. The Fed is really losing credibility and its so called neutrality. Their bias towards the rich and powerful is becoming more self evident even to the white supremacists. Trump says begone to witc* and she in return says up yours. Lets see next year who the winner is. I have learned from the past never to argue with a woman. 

I really liked reading your post. As an amature investor I'd ask for any advice or clarification on "Maybe the TBill buyers/suckers will see the light but somehow I doubt it."

 

I saw the baht strengthen when it should have weakened around the time of death. 

 

I saw my stocks get hammered lately. 

 

Was considering learning options trading. 

 

What's with the T-bill suckers? - I was just about to recommend my sister put her money safe; safer than the flipping market. 

[oldhippy]

For advise about investment in stocks, google "lottery". 

Also it will be useful to philosophize on "real economy versus financial superstructure".

[Senechal]

14 hours ago, stevedom said:

stability based on what? The forecast was that once the USA increased its bank rate then many billions dollars would be reinvested there and taken from Thailand. Why, when this has now happened, is the thai baht even stronger.

Tourism & economic figures are down. The outlook is not good. What possible reason for the Baht to strengthen?

Once the USA does what???

 

The USA will never in 1 million years raise interest rates to their former levels without a massive calamity of some kind. If they did the entire banking system ponzi would implode. 

 

The Federal Reserve is well and truly f***** right now. They have painted themselves into a corner with low rates from which there is no escape.

 

Now the Fed says ridiculous things like they'll raise rates -- until markets start to look bad. Which is like saying, "We'll take our foot off the accelerator -- until it makes the car slow down". 

 

They're screwed. Rates aren't going anywhere. The dollar is backed by one thing only: Nukes. Plan accordingly.

 

Edited September 1, 2017 by Senechal

[SheungWan]

20 hours ago, stevedom said:

stability based on what? The forecast was that once the USA increased its bank rate then many billions dollars would be reinvested there and taken from Thailand. Why, when this has now happened, is the thai baht even stronger.

Tourism & economic figures are down. The outlook is not good. What possible reason for the Baht to strengthen?

You are perfectly entitled to question perceived stability and relative current stability in the baht market. In which case you hold your foreign currency and wait for a correction in the markets. There are two sides for the eg UDSDTHB and GBPTHB trades so you take a position.

[scotchonrocks]

There are three ways to get rid of debt. One is through inflation - devaluing the real value of what's owed. Second is through deflation. Never planned and always a consequence, but ends in tears by way of a downward spiral where consumption falls as people see prices cheaper tomorrow. The value of assets are reduced and there is debt deflation - depositors in banks are hit too. Then there is the final third way: war. Bomb away the assets the debts are attached to and there is no more collateral to support the debt.

 

Once all the assets destroyed and after some time a construction boom ensues, bringing with it? You guessed it - inflation. The merry go round continues. This is not me talking. This is history. Ideas are from "The Great Reckoning" by Dale Johnson and Lord William Reece-Mogg.

[Senechal]

35 minutes ago, scotchonrocks said:

There are three ways to get rid of debt. One is through inflation - devaluing the real value of what's owed. Second is through deflation. Never planned and always a consequence, but ends in tears by way of a downward spiral where consumption falls as people see prices cheaper tomorrow. The value of assets are reduced and there is debt deflation - depositors in banks are hit too. Then there is the final third way: war. Bomb away the assets the debts are attached to and there is no more collateral to support the debt.

 

Once all the assets destroyed and after some time a construction boom ensues, bringing with it? You guessed it - inflation. The merry go round continues. This is not me talking. This is history. Ideas are from "The Great Reckoning" by Dale Johnson and Lord William Reece-Mogg.

 

All true.

 

And technically war is deflation. It's a culling of productive capacity. (Just, really really fast and violent). So really just two ways.

 

Or as the great Von Mises said: 

Quote

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

 

http://www.quotesonfinance.com/quote/48/Ludwig-von-Mises-The-final-collapse

 

 

ie: Inflation or deflation. Pick one. You don't get to not pick.

 

 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Senechal

[DonaldBattles]

I don't think the Bank of Thailand, the 25 rich families and the military that run the country pay a lot attention to the US$. In order to protect their wealth they have to keep the Baht at a high level. This is accomplished by the central bank controlling the currency.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, DonaldBattles said:

I don't think the Bank of Thailand, the 25 rich families and the military that run the country pay a lot attention to the US$. In order to protect their wealth they have to keep the Baht at a high level. This is accomplished by the central bank controlling the currency.

Ignoring the dollar and controlling the currency? Good luck with that one. A finance/economics course might be an option.

[oldhippy]

51 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Ignoring the dollar and controlling the currency? Good luck with that one. A finance/economics course might be an option.

The Greeks swindled their way into the euro zone. With some help from Goldman Sachs.

So it can be done!

(yes I realise that was a different story, but "impossible" too)