Turkey's President Erdogan threatens Europe with new wave of refugees

[Xircal]

13 hours ago, Kiwiken said:

Perhaps if the right won in Germany they would repatriate the 3 million plus Turks living in Germany. How would Erdogan cope then?

 

Any Turks who are repatriated will go straight to jail no doubt. They're the ones who supported the secular system which Erdogan has replaced with his warped Islamic ideas. The coup which he overthrew was intended to reinstate the secular system and it wouldn't surprise me to learn that he engineered the whole thing to give himself absolute power.

[Donutz]

20 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

A single solution to a major problem will never work.

 

 

Right from the start this should have been the focus of all the EU's efforts, not pandering to Turkey.

 

 

Correct. That is why the are now pouring in through Italy and Spain. How surprising that the MSM is so quiet on that one.

 

 

Which would be totally logical if they were all from Syria. 

 

It will never stop, regardless of what is done. The dynamics and name will change, but it will never stop.

 

Erdogan is a fool and any European politician who takes him seriously must have lost touch with reality. Erdogan would achieve very little if he ended the deal. The refugee deal with Turkey in march of this year had some influence but the number of migrants/refugees to Greece had already decreased by a lot in the months before.

 

See the blue line below (and yes the media duch as the Dutch public broadcaster does draw the incorrect picture with incomplete and  exaggarrated figuree as shown in red ):

https://mobile.twitter.com/flipvandyke/status/771746048243036160

 

MSM not reporting about Italy? Nonsense, they do report pretty frequently whenever there is a peak. Not reporting correct information? Indeed so though I blame it on incompetence and sensationalism. Not much to report when there are zero to few refugees/migrants arriving. They do give the impression though as if the problem is becomming worse while it is not! The number of people crossing into Italy in 2016 is slighly higher than 2015 but about equal to 2014: 
- https://mobile.twitter.com/flipvandyke/status/799503072410136576/photo/1
- https://mobile.twitter.com/flipvandyke/status/794418966886227968

 

 

[craigt3365]

11 hours ago, Morch said:

 

I'm not sure the barrel bombing by itself is a major factor with regard to the refugee figures. People run away from fighting in general. The no fly zones simply mean the killing will be carried out by other means. 

 

Read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Syrian_Civil_War_barrel_bomb_attacks

 

And watch this, I think these will change your mind.  Not sure how anybody could live there when this is going on.  Terrible way to treat your fellow citizens.

 

 

[Donutz]

Common mistakes by MSM on migration numbers:

 

- only report immigration not emigration or the net difference between immigration en emigration. 

- blindly quoting the department of immigration or refugee related authorities, who may infact have an agenda: report high numbers, rounded up a fair bit to show the seriousness of te situation and lobby for more staff, funds, resources or donations. Ever noticed how afterwards there are reports about how X thousands were expected but much fewer actually arrived? Win-win: the agency gets to lobby for more resources beforehand and afterwards a minister can come on camera and give a speech on how effective the government was on keeping (asylum) migration so much lower than expected.

- Reporters not realizing that quotes numbers may not actually be first time applicants but the total number of applications including second or additional reapplications in the same or neighbouring EU countries. The Germans used a very crude system (which name escapes me right now) to report the number of asylum seekers but due to double counts and migrants moving on to neighbouring countries the actual number was way lower (below 1 million in 2015 while reports based on this German count were way over 1 million). Or the reported numbers include family members joining (aproved) asylum seekers and the reporter not realizing this and presenting the number as if it were people who just arrived and excluded family. Giving the inpression that family members are still to join and further inflate the number while that isn't the case.

- Sensationalism: they report when there are peaks or tragedies. Migrants cross the sea in waves (both as a tactic to overwhelm Frontex and due to the weather I pressume) . On the many dull days with few boats are tragedies there isn't much reporting going on. An empty sea and a reporter saying 'today 5 people arrived, zero drowned'  won't interest the public. If a week later a thousand arrive and a hundred drown it suddenly is news...

- The rush to be the first to report rather than taking a day or afternoon to double check.

 

Sadly few MSM show 'boring' (net) graphs.

 

edit: in a way the MSM is like TAT, only reporting rising numbers. If you wouldn't know any better you'd think that Thailand has been flooded year after year by frequent tsunami's of filthy rich quality tourists spending huge amounts of money. 555

Edited November 27, 2016 by Donutz

[craigt3365]

8 hours ago, thai3 said:

 

I think dangerous infiltrators is a better term

 

For some, you are absolutely right.  Stop the war, stop the stream of refugees.

[SgtRock]

2 hours ago, Donutz said:

Erdogan is a fool and any European politician who takes him seriously must have lost touch with reality

 

Bingo.

 

You nailed it right there.

 

Not limited to the dealings with Erdogan.

Edited November 27, 2016 by SgtRock

[Scott]

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

For some, you are absolutely right.  Stop the war, stop the stream of refugees.

 

That's not a foregone conclusion.   It depends on who wins.   It may result in a whole new outflow of refugees, depending on who is in power.  

 

Europe needs to secure it's borders and it cannot just be flagging them on through.   They will not be able to 100% secure them, but they deal with it in such a manner that they can drastically slow the influx. 

[seedy]

Derogatory Post - and Quoted Reply - Removed

[boomerangutang]

             Saudi and the Emirates plus Kuwait are in the vicinity and are all rich territories, but Syrians don't go there, except some who have jobs in those places.

 

            Syria is allied with Iran, yet Syrians aren't streaming into Iran.   Neither are they going to Egypt or any North African countries.

 

          I know why.  It's partly because; whereas their fellow Muslims talk the talk on being hospitable, they don't walk the walk.  But it's mostly because Europe still has green grass and resources and jobs, ......and Europeans are generally open-armed in welcoming downtrodden (they even give free lodging/food/education) - whereas Middle Easterners are as welcoming as Trump.

 

 

  

[SgtRock]

35 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

I know why.  It's partly because; whereas their fellow Muslims talk the talk on being hospitable, they don't walk the walk.  But it's mostly because Europe still has green grass and resources and jobs,

 

EU unemployment figures dispels your theory.

 

Current EU unemployment 8.5%. That is about 42,000,000 million people unemployed.

 

Youth unemployment

 

 

Certainly not about jobs, unless you are talking about the Black Economy.

[SaintLouisBlues]

7 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

Current EU unemployment 8.5%. That is about 42,000,000 million people unemployed.

How are you calculating this? The total population of the EU was around 500 million in January this year. However, measures of unemployment relate to those who are of a working age ie. not children, not pensioners - who measure possibly one-third of the population. Let's say the working age population is therefore around 335 million. If average unemployment is 8.5% we're talking roughly 28.5 million unemployed. Still deplorable, but nothing like 42 million

Edited November 27, 2016 by SaintLouisBlues

[SgtRock]

19 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

How are you calculating this? The total population of the EU was around 500 million in January this year. However, measures of unemployment relate to those who are of a working age ie. not children, not pensioners - who measure possibly one-third of the population. Let's say the working age population is therefore around 335 million. If average unemployment is 8.5% we're talking roughly 28.5 million unemployed. Still deplorable, but nothing like 42 million

 

Thank you for highlighting my typo

 

I meant 24,000,000 not 42,000,000

 

Brain and fingers not in sync.

 

How I wish I was perfect 

[SaintLouisBlues]

Just now, SgtRock said:

How I wish I was perfect 

You don't have to be perfect, you just have to be careful and read your posts at least twice before scurrying off to do something else

[maximillian]

On 26.11.2559 at 7:38 AM, thai3 said:

Should read illegal immigrants, not 'refugees'. 

 

Silly thai3 !

People from war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, Jemen, Somalia want to immigrate to Turkey ?

They wouldn't even want to immigrate to other EU countries if they could live peacefully in their own country.

Blame regime changing imperialist hegemons for the refugee crisis.

[maximillian]

10 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

Any Turks who are repatriated will go straight to jail no doubt. They're the ones who supported the secular system which Erdogan has replaced with his warped Islamic ideas. The coup which he overthrew was intended to reinstate the secular system and it wouldn't surprise me to learn that he engineered the whole thing to give himself absolute power.

 

Can agree with you about the engineered coup, but the majority of Turks in Germany are pro Erdogan.

Please don't wish that the anti Erdogan Turks to be forced back to Turkey.

Turkey is another big bomb with a burning fuse, I'm afraid.

[sirineou]

On 11/25/2016 at 9:10 PM, NumbNut said:

He's a flea this bloke... attempting to capitalize on innocent peoples distress. Doesn't get much lower eh.

 

It's a zero sum game though isn't it, if he pulls this stunt there is no way Turkey will be invited into the EU during his term in office, no matter how long that may be.

There is no way the EU will invite Turkey into the Union while Erdogan is in power because for Erdogan to remain in power he must engage in practices that make Turkey ineligible for membership.

 Erdogan knows that.

What Erdogan wants, IMO, is visa free travel within the EU so that he can export his unemployment and import remittances. 

[Morch]

18 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

There's just no way the EU would accelerate Turkey's accession given Erdogan's rhetoric. It would be madness to do so even allowing for him to open the floodgates like he's threatening to do. Better to have another million illegals land on Greek shores than 75 million Turks.

 

And if he turns to Russia or China, he needs to be kicked out of NATO and quick.

 

Diplomatically slapping Turkey's face and adding a decisive kick in the backside out of NATO will certainly draw cheers from many. It is, however, might be a bit more prudent to consider the implications beforehand. Like it or not, Turkey is a player, even f only by virtue of location.

[Morch]

12 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Syrian_Civil_War_barrel_bomb_attacks

 

And watch this, I think these will change your mind.  Not sure how anybody could live there when this is going on.  Terrible way to treat your fellow citizens.

 

 

 

Barrel bombs are just cheap weapons. They are not necessarily more destructive than others. The main reason they are used by the Syrian regime is due to the Syrian Air Force relatively low competence in flying air-ground missions (and specifically ground support), with a similar comment regarding available stock of armaments. To put it another way, in comparison to the the Russian contingent in Syria, or the air power represented by the US-led coalition - this is amateur hour. Doesn't help the civilians experiencing these attacks, of course. My point is that "proper" air attacks, would have a far worse outcome, had the Syrian Air Force been able to carry them out.

 

Unless mistaken, not all of the attacks documented in the clip involve barrel bombs. Again, without discounting the suffering of those on the ground, there are similar documentations of air strike from other conflicts, many way more intense than the above.

 

People run away from war zones in general, I think it's only rarely that a specific kind of attack plays a central role in their decision to flee. Not sure how many of the overall casualties in this conflict can be directly attributed to barrel bomb attacks.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Morch

[Morch]

10 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

             Saudi and the Emirates plus Kuwait are in the vicinity and are all rich territories, but Syrians don't go there, except some who have jobs in those places.

 

            Syria is allied with Iran, yet Syrians aren't streaming into Iran.   Neither are they going to Egypt or any North African countries.

 

          I know why.  It's partly because; whereas their fellow Muslims talk the talk on being hospitable, they don't walk the walk.  But it's mostly because Europe still has green grass and resources and jobs, ......and Europeans are generally open-armed in welcoming downtrodden (they even give free lodging/food/education) - whereas Middle Easterners are as welcoming as Trump.

 

 

  

 

Syrians in Saudi Arabia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrians_in_Saudi_Arabia

 

The Gulf States Are Taking Syrian Refugees

http://www.newsweek.com/gulf-states-are-taking-syrian-refugees-401131

 

Syria Regional Refugee Response (Egypt)

https://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=8

 

Syria Regional Refugee Response (overview)

https://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

 

Iran is allied with Syria's regime, along religious fault lines (Alawites are branch of Shia Islam). Most of Syria's population (and refugees) are Sunni. Additionally there are no shared borders, and land access to Iran would be through northern Iraq, not a very hospitable territory these last few years. With regard to North African countries, there are Syrian refugees in Egypt. Libya is obviously not a suitable safe-haven, and the rest are too far.

 

Worthy to note that the bulk of refugees are hosted by Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Morch

[Xircal]

8 hours ago, maximillian said:

 

Can agree with you about the engineered coup, but the majority of Turks in Germany are pro Erdogan.

Please don't wish that the anti Erdogan Turks to be forced back to Turkey.

Turkey is another big bomb with a burning fuse, I'm afraid.

 

Yes, I see that you're correct in your assessment: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36939251

 

That surprises me because I thought it would be the exact opposite given that Erdogan's policies will remove many freedoms Turkish citizens enjoyed when the seculist government was in power.

[boomerangutang]

10 hours ago, SgtRock said:

EU unemployment figures dispels your theory.

Current EU unemployment 8.5%. That is about 24,000,000 million people unemployed.

Youth unemployment

 

 

Certainly not about jobs, unless you are talking about the Black Economy.

I corrected 42k to 24k.  

Re; unemployment:  though European numbers are lamentable, they're probably far better than Syrian numbers.  There are several other factors which make central Europe a more desirable destination than Syria or Iraq or even Turkey or Iran, Saudi or Kuwait:  One standout: Europe doesn't mandate adherence to a mean-spirited belief system, whereas the Middle East does.  

 

[Xircal]

On 11/26/2016 at 10:08 AM, craigt3365 said:

But a no fly zone would stop the barrel bombing and probably reduce the number of refugees???

 

The problem with a no-fly zone in this particular case is that enforcing it is likely to bring the US into direct military confrontation with Russia.

 

Perhaps a better idea would be to arm the rebels with MANPADS. The US did that in Afghanistan to balance the odds after Russia invaded in December 1979 in support of the communist backed regine which was suffering substantial losses at the time. Once the Mujahedin received their first Stingers, the tide rapidly turned against the Russians who retreated from the country ten years later.

 

While MANPADS won't be much good against high flying Russian aircraft, they'd be very effective against Syrian helicopters unloading barrel bombs on the civilian population.

 

 

[Morch]

41 minutes ago, Xircal said:

 

The problem with a no-fly zone in this particular case is that enforcing it is likely to bring the US into direct military confrontation with Russia.

 

Perhaps a better idea would be to arm the rebels with MANPADS. The US did that in Afghanistan to balance the odds after Russia invaded in December 1979 in support of the communist backed regine which was suffering substantial losses at the time. Once the Mujahedin received their first Stingers, the tide rapidly turned against the Russians who retreated from the country ten years later.

 

While MANPADS won't be much good against high flying Russian aircraft, they'd be very effective against Syrian helicopters unloading barrel bombs on the civilian population.

 

 

 

There's a good reason these aren't handed out freely anymore. Too dangerous to trust in the hands of militants notorious for shifting allegiances. Too great a risk ending up in the hands of terrorists and being a threat to civilian air traffic.

 

[Baerboxer]

On 11/26/2016 at 7:42 AM, NongKhaiKid said:

However Brussels still feels obliged to talk to this man because they're afraid of the consequences of upsetting him !

 

Not all of them. Like all the MEP's who voted to put Turkey's EU membership talks on hold. 

 

However Mrs. "I'm always right and never wrong" Merkel and her cronies think they can still deal with this petty despot. Maybe the huger population of ethnic Turks in Germany makes them feel there's a "special relationship."

The problem is if he opens the gates, and he's not remotely bothered about his obligations under international law and conventions, then what will the EU do? Merkel won't take a hard line and will demand more quotas is the answer.

[tonbridgebrit]

17 hours ago, Scott said:

 

That's not a foregone conclusion.   It depends on who wins.   It may result in a whole new outflow of refugees, depending on who is in power.  

 

Europe needs to secure it's borders and it cannot just be flagging them on through.   They will not be able to 100% secure them, but they deal with it in such a manner that they can drastically slow the influx. 

"That's not a foregone conclusion.   It depends on who wins.   It may result in a whole new outflow of refugees, depending on who is in power."


Yes, this comment is very true. And what if Assad loses, and he's removed ?
Who will take over Syria ?  The two biggest rebel groups are ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front are Al-Qaeda's branch in Syria. There's also other rebel groups who are linked to the Al-Nusra Front. And other rebels as well.

Are the people of Syria going to want to stay in Syria if ISIS takes over ? Are they going to want to stay if the Al-Nusra Front takes over ?
Yes, there might be a whole new outflow of refugees if Washington then decides to bomb whoever still remains after Assad has gone. I mean, no way will NATO allow a new Syria with ISIS or the Al-Nusra Front in charge, right ?

 

 

[Prbkk]

37 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

"That's not a foregone conclusion.   It depends on who wins.   It may result in a whole new outflow of refugees, depending on who is in power."


Yes, this comment is very true. And what if Assad loses, and he's removed ?
Who will take over Syria ?  The two biggest rebel groups are ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front are Al-Qaeda's branch in Syria. There's also other rebel groups who are linked to the Al-Nusra Front. And other rebels as well.

Are the people of Syria going to want to stay in Syria if ISIS takes over ? Are they going to want to stay if the Al-Nusra Front takes over ?
Yes, there might be a whole new outflow of refugees if Washington then decides to bomb whoever still remains after Assad has gone. I mean, no way will NATO allow a new Syria with ISIS or the Al-Nusra Front in charge, right ?

 

 

 

And  that is precisely why so much of the blame rests with Hillary Clinton and Obama....when sane voices were saying "be careful what you wish for" , including the Russians, Hillary went off on her Arab Spring-inspired sub-plot of arbitrarily deciding to support the rebels and undermining Assad. She learnt nothing from Libya, Iraq, Egypt, elsewhere. And thousands upon thousands suffer and die as a consequence.

Woefully unfit to have been a candidate, let alone a President.

[craigt3365]

11 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Barrel bombs are just cheap weapons. They are not necessarily more destructive than others. The main reason they are used by the Syrian regime is due to the Syrian Air Force relatively low competence in flying air-ground missions (and specifically ground support), with a similar comment regarding available stock of armaments. To put it another way, in comparison to the the Russian contingent in Syria, or the air power represented by the US-led coalition - this is amateur hour. Doesn't help the civilians experiencing these attacks, of course. My point is that "proper" air attacks, would have a far worse outcome, had the Syrian Air Force been able to carry them out.

 

Unless mistaken, not all of the attacks documented in the clip involve barrel bombs. Again, without discounting the suffering of those on the ground, there are similar documentations of air strike from other conflicts, many way more intense than the above.

 

People run away from war zones in general, I think it's only rarely that a specific kind of attack plays a central role in their decision to flee. Not sure how many of the overall casualties in this conflict can be directly attributed to barrel bomb attacks.

I'm no expert, but from what I've read, barrel bombs aren't precise.  So they have no idea if they are going to hit their target or not.  Or, hit a nearby school, hospital, apartment, etc.  Also, it's been shown they've been putting chemicals into these devices.  The recent chlorine attack is an example.  Something you wouldn't have with precision bombing.

 

I've also read that many would like to leave, but when they tried, snipers took some down.  Thus, their hesitancy to leave the area.  Plus, it is their home!  Sadly...

[SgtRock]

13 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

Yes, I see that you're correct in your assessment: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36939251

 

That surprises me because I thought it would be the exact opposite given that Erdogan's policies will remove many freedoms Turkish citizens enjoyed when the seculist government was in power.

 

Not sure why you would be surprised Xircal.

 

For Billions of Muslim's, their particular brand of Islam takes priority over everything.

[SgtRock]

12 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

I corrected 42k to 24k.  

Re; unemployment:  though European numbers are lamentable, they're probably far better than Syrian numbers.  There are several other factors which make central Europe a more desirable destination than Syria or Iraq or even Turkey or Iran, Saudi or Kuwait:  One standout: Europe doesn't mandate adherence to a mean-spirited belief system, whereas the Middle East does.  

 

 

24 Million not 24k.

 

Lamentable does not even come close.

 

As for your standout. Correct, Europe does not mandate adherence to a mean spirited belief system, Islam does.

 

Hence the reason Saudi offered to build to build 200 Mosques in Germany. What a stunning contribution to the migrant crisis. I could come up with 1000's of things migrants need, before they need a Mosque.

 

Quote

Saudi Arabia has offered to build 200 mosques in Germany for Syrian refugees who have fled to Europe.

 

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-offers-build-200-mosques-in-germany-for-syrian-refugees-605755.html

 

I used an Arabian source so that I would not be accused of being bias.

[boomerangutang]

Turkey is now being inspected for torture and other human rights abuses.  Erdogan will naturally do all he can to thwart efforts of Amnesty Int'l and other do-good organizations.   Yet, his true colors are shining though, and they aren't like a rainbow.