Alain Juppe recognises defeat by Francois Fillon in French Republican primaries

[webfact]

Alain Juppe recognises defeat by Francois Fillon in French Republican primaries

 

 

PARIS: -- Francois Fillon looks set to win the French Republican primaries. With just over half of polling stations accounted for, Fillon had taken 68.4% of the vote. Alain Juppe has already conceded defeat and said that he will offer his support to Francois Fillon.

 

Juppe took a more moderate stance than his rival who is calling for radical economic reforms, and an end to the 35-hour working week. Fillon also proposes scrapping wealth tax, raising VAT, limiting adoption for same-sex couples and overhauling the Schengen agreement to limit immigration and the free movement of EU citizens.

 

Fillon served as Prime Minister under Nicolas Sarkozy and already undertook controversial reforms of the 35 hour working week law and the retirement system. Two issues which he has once again taken aim at in his policy proposals for this election.

 

In a bid to bind his party together, Fillon said: “What unites my camp is more important than what divides it… I must now convince the whole country that our project is the only one that can lift us up.” He went on to talk about “a complete change of software for France.”

Fillon is likely to face far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the presidential elections.

 

 

-- © Copyright Euronews 2016-11-28

[nausea]

Interesting, given Fillon's agenda.

[SgtRock]

17 minutes ago, nausea said:

Interesting, given Fillon's agenda.

 

How correct you are.

 

The other interesting thing is how a convicted criminal was allowed to run at all and that approx 35% of voters voted for a convicted criminal.

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, nausea said:

Interesting, given Fillon's agenda.

Especially given Fillon's hostility to Brexit. Brexiteers better pray for a Le Pen victory.

[Linesy]

Maybe, but "limiting immigration and free movement of EU citizens" won't go down well

[SgtRock]

6 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Especially given Fillon's hostility to Brexit. Brexiteers better pray for a Le Pen victory.

 

Given Fillon's election promises

• Raise retirement age
• Raise the hours of the working week
• And his promise to slash 500,000 civil service jobs.

It is highly unlikely that the French will vote him into power.

 

Add into the mix that it is being widely reported that both Macron and Melechon will take votes away from Fillon.

 

Throw into the mix his Russian / Putin stance, contrary to the EU's position.

 

I think we can forget about Fillon getting anywhere near power.

[blazes]

4 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Given Fillon's election promises

• Raise retirement age
• Raise the hours of the working week
• And his promise to slash 500,000 civil service jobs.

It is highly unlikely that the French will vote him into power.

 

Add into the mix that it is being widely reported that both Macron and Melechon will take votes away from Fillon.

 

Throw into the mix his Russian / Putin stance, contrary to the EU's position.

 

I think we can forget about Fillon getting anywhere near power.

 

 

France has traditionally had close relations with Russia, so I doubt he would lose too many votes over that....

[SgtRock]

13 minutes ago, Linesy said:

Maybe, but "limiting immigration and free movement of EU citizens" won't go down well

 

 

 

 

You reckon ?

[SgtRock]

8 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

 

France has traditionally had close relations with Russia, so I doubt he would lose too many votes over that....

 

I never said he would lose votes over it. I said it goes against the EU. So it will not go down well in the corridors of power.

 

What is said in private and openly discussed in public are 2 very different beasts.

[Aforek]

17 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

I think we can forget about Fillon getting anywhere near power.

Do you know French people ? ; you think Le Pen president ? I know I'll vote for Fillon, Le Pen is catastrophic

Fillon is already the BIG favorite ( 70-30 % )

[ilostmypassword]

5 minutes ago, Aforek said:

Do you know French people ? ; you think Le Pen president ? I know I'll vote for Fillon, Le Pen is catastrophic

Fillon is already the BIG favorite ( 70-30 % )

I think Fillon's anti-labor stance will hurt him a lot with the French electorate.

[SgtRock]

10 minutes ago, Aforek said:

Do you know French people ? ; you think Le Pen president ? I know I'll vote for Fillon, Le Pen is catastrophic

Fillon is already the BIG favorite ( 70-30 % )

 

It does not really matter who I think will be president.

 

What matters is the French electorate.

 

Brexit was catastrophic.

 

Trump was catastrophic.

 

Can you see the pattern ?

 

 

[SgtRock]

24 minutes ago, Aforek said:

Do you know French people ? ; you think Le Pen president ? I know I'll vote for Fillon, Le Pen is catastrophic

Fillon is already the BIG favorite ( 70-30 % )

 

Do not know where you are getting the 70% - 30%

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president

 

Check the most popular bets chart.

 

All the money is going on Le Pen.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, SgtRock said:

 

Do not know where you are getting the 70% - 30%

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president

 

Check the most popular bets chart.

 

All the money is going on Le Pen.

I think you are reading this table in reverse. Unless you think Francois Bayrou is a 200 to 1 favorite to win.

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, nausea said:

Interesting, given Fillon's agenda.

If you got money your the big winner. Forget the politicians. 

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I think you are reading this table in reverse. Unless you think Francois Bayrou is a 200 to 1 favorite to win.

 

Check the pie chart at the link.

 

There has been more bets so far, placed on Le Pen to win than all other candidates combined.

 

Jeez

Edited November 28, 2016 by SgtRock

[OMGImInPattaya]

Alain "Trump" per chance?

[ilostmypassword]

8 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Le Pen is the 5/2 favourite at the bookies, that big yellow section in the pie chart is the proportion of bets that have been placed for Le Pen to win.

 

There has been more money so far, placed on Le Pen to win than all other candidates combined.

 

Jeez

Here's an article about the oddsmakers. The discussion of how it works argues against you. Jeez.

ANd here's a simple explanation of how the odds work:

http://www.wikihow.com/Read-Odds

Edited November 28, 2016 by ilostmypassword

[SgtRock]

4 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Here's an article about the oddsmakers. The discussion of how it works argues against you. Jeez.

ANd here's a simple explanation of how the odds work:

http://www.wikihow.com/Read-Odds

 

I amended my post. I suggest that you take another look.

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, OMGImInPattaya said:

Alain "Trump" per chance?

 

As I posted in one of the US Election threads.

 

The big money bets were being placed in favour of Clinton, which made her the bookies favourite, until about 4 days before the election, the sheer volume of small money value bets on Trump shifted Trump to being the bookies favourite.

 

I see exactly the pattern being followed with the French election.

 

Currently Le Pen has more bets placed on her winning than all other candidate combined.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

Given Fillon's election promises

• Raise retirement age
• Raise the hours of the working week
• And his promise to slash 500,000 civil service jobs.

It is highly unlikely that the French will vote him into power.

 

Add into the mix that it is being widely reported that both Macron and Melechon will take votes away from Fillon.

 

Throw into the mix his Russian / Putin stance, contrary to the EU's position.

 

I think we can forget about Fillon getting anywhere near power.

They said that about Trump too.

I haven't followed the campaign at all, but the similarities to Trump are unmissable.

Just wanting to reduce/ eliminate economic migrants could be enough for him to win, unless Le Pen is even more extreme, but like I said, I haven't been following the campaign.

Just noticed the similarities to the Trump campaign.

[Opl]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

It does not really matter who I think will be president.

 

What matters is the French electorate.

 

Brexit was catastrophic.

 

Trump was catastrophic.

 

Can you see the pattern ?

 

 

 

The fact that F. Rillon won this "primary" does not predict the outcome of the presidential election.

Because -  as it is also the case for the left - those who voted for the primaries  can be ranked among the  "included" much more than the "excluded".

And - as Brexit - and Trump election - show , the latter have the key to the presidential election in their hands.

Millenials turnout also matters  

Edited November 28, 2016 by Opl

[Linesy]

 
You reckon ?

No, I don't reckon, I was bored waiting for the Mrs so I thought I would waste a bit of time writing a post.

[Gene1960]

 
Given Fillon's election promises

• Raise retirement age
• Raise the hours of the working week
• And his promise to slash 500,000 civil service jobs.

It is highly unlikely that the French will vote him into power.
 

Fillon's ideas of cutting the number of civil servants, deputies and senators are shared by a lot of people. It became obvious to many that the government is too expensive and France cannot afford the bureaucracy of that size anymore.

[SgtRock]

1 minute ago, Gene1960 said:

Fillon's ideas of cutting the number of civil servants, deputies and senators are shared by a lot of people. It became obvious to many that the government is too expensive and France cannot afford the bureaucracy of that size anymore.

 

Ideas are great Gene1960. And it is also very possible that he is correct.

 

The problem is votes.

 

How many in the Civil Service, their families and extended families are going to vote in a National election to potentially lose their jobs.

 

If he is talking about cutting 500,000 at a 25% cut for instance. That is a pool of 2 million people that are in line to potentially lose their livelihood, add in their extended families, and that is a lot of votes not going to Fillon.

 

Out of a voter pool of circa 30 million, that is a big % of votes to lose.

[Aforek]

4 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Do not know where you are getting the 70% - 30%

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president

 

Check the most popular bets chart.

 

All the money is going on Le Pen.

 

Sorry, you make me laugh ; who vote ? English people ?  the 70% - 30% where a poll yesterday night after the result of the primaire, by French people

the bets you speak about is may be a trend today but for me it's ridiculous , doesn't show anything , life is not a game of bet, it's not football

[SgtRock]

1 hour ago, Aforek said:

 

Sorry, you make me laugh ; who vote ? English people ?  the 70% - 30% where a poll yesterday night after the result of the primaire, by French people

the bets you speak about is may be a trend today but for me it's ridiculous , doesn't show anything , life is not a game of bet, it's not football

 

I think you are confused and should post a link to this poll.

 

Primary result 64% - 36%

 

Are you sure it wasn't an exit poll on the Primary result and nothing to do with the National election ?

 

 

[Calach]

5 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

Ideas are great Gene1960. And it is also very possible that he is correct.

 

The problem is votes.

 

How many in the Civil Service, their families and extended families are going to vote in a National election to potentially lose their jobs.

 

If he is talking about cutting 500,000 at a 25% cut for instance. That is a pool of 2 million people that are in line to potentially lose their livelihood, add in their extended families, and that is a lot of votes not going to Fillon.

 

Out of a voter pool of circa 30 million, that is a big % of votes to lose.

 

Civil servants numbers are usually reduced by not replacing employees getting retired, never with dry job cuts. Anyhow, civil servants usually vote for left wing candidates, so he hasn't much to lose there. Except military and police but those are less likely to see job cuts and a lot of them vote for the far right so he might even get some of them back as he has a strong stance on family values, identity, security, etc.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Calach

[Anthony5]

9 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

It does not really matter who I think will be president.

 

What matters is the French electorate.

 

Brexit was catastrophic.

 

Trump was catastrophic.

 

Can you see the pattern ?

 

 

 

No they were not catastrophic, they were surprising, as in the people have made it clear that they are sick and tired of being told what they can do and what not and want to have someone who works for them.

 

Expect a Le Pen victory in France and a Wilders victory in the Netherlands.

[Aforek]

3 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

I think you are confused and should post a link to this poll.

 

Primary result 64% - 36%

 

Are you sure it wasn't an exit poll on the Primary result and nothing to do with the National election ?

 

 

Can you read French ? Last sunday night, yesterday night; two polls give Fillon  winner first round  26%  Fillon , 24 % for Le Pen  for the first poll ; 32 % Fillon  22 % Le Pen for the second poll and for the  second round : 67 % for Fillon versus 33 %  Le Pen for the first poll and 71 % versus for Le Pen  29 %    my explanation : First round, everybody vote for their candidate, left side vote for left side, for the second round, left side voters will vote for Fillon because they are afraid by far right and the incompetence of FN, and of course Le Pen voters will vote again for Le Pen ( less than 30 % ) ; here is the link http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondages-Francois-Fillon-l-emporterait-devant-Marine-Le-Pen_a108258.html