Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector' of UK economy

[pegman]

17 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Quite.  The UK has already suffered the after effects of the brexit vote, and re-joining will not help much in changing those affects.

It hasn't even started. The financial centre of the EU will be moving from London. No ifs, ands or buts. There is plenty misery in store and the harder it hits the better so people elsewhere can learn at the Brits expense. The Yanks are also in for some tough sledding but it will not be economic unless Trump can get Congress to increase tariffs with him which is unlikely.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, pegman said:

It hasn't even started. The financial centre of the EU will be moving from London. No ifs, ands or buts. There is plenty misery in store and the harder it hits the better so people elsewhere can learn at the Brits expense. The Yanks are also in for some tough sledding but it will not be economic unless Trump can get Congress to increase tariffs with him which is unlikely.

 

Let us all hope that those banks that were rescued by the government at the taxpayers expense repay every penny plus interest before they are allowed to leave.

[Orac]

 
Let us all hope that those banks that were rescued by the government at the taxpayers expense repay every penny plus interest before they are allowed to leave.

Banks will make decisions with the approval and in the interests of their major shareholders so, in the case of RBS/Lloyds, it is highly unlikely since the UK govt still holds most of the shares (about 70% still I believe). What is left of Northern Rock snd Bradford and Bingley are going nowhere fast.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-banks-bail-out-cost-taxpayer-eu-referendum-uk-shares-prices-a7436196.html

[AllanB]

I don't understand why you are so scared, they didn't move Europe..... it is still there, it just doesn't own us any more. We don't need Junckers you know, he is just a grubby little Luxembourger...... 

 

So Sterling has dropped a little, it will recover, it's only the speculators playing with your money, they do that you know. I thought we Brits were supposed to have some fortitude, instead of peeing your pants when we have to learn to stand on our own two feet. 12 month old babies can do it, so what does that say about you? That naysayers need Pampers?

[Grouse]

7 hours ago, alant said:

And that answers my question how?

Don't read it if you don't want to!!! Can say that for anything.

As for it being news, more like vested opinion

 

I don't wear a vest.

[Grouse]

37 minutes ago, AllanB said:

I don't understand why you are so scared, they didn't move Europe..... it is still there, it just doesn't own us any more. We don't need Junckers you know, he is just a grubby little Luxembourger...... 

 

So Sterling has dropped a little, it will recover, it's only the speculators playing with your money, they do that you know. I thought we Brits were supposed to have some fortitude, instead of peeing your pants when we have to learn to stand on our own two feet. 12 month old babies can do it, so what does that say about you? That naysayers need Pampers?

 

cable 20% down over a year is a little?

 

FTSE 100 measured in USD is down 12% over the year is a little?

 

Just flesh wounds?

 

Black Knight syndrome?

[Khun Han]

43 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

cable 20% down over a year is a little?

 

FTSE 100 measured in USD is down 12% over the year is a little?

 

Just flesh wounds?

 

Black Knight syndrome?

 

"FTSE 100 measured in USD is down 12% over the year is a little?"

 

Or: "How to play with statistics" 

[JAG]

A "hard Brexit" may damage almost every sector of the UK economy, (although I am not going to lose much sleep over "the creative industries suffering a body blow"); however economic damage can be repaired. Any damage needs to be compared with the likely damage to our society, way of life and the institutions which sustain it if we remain in an ever more interventionist, federally inclined and determinedly non democratic union.  Our Parliament, which should be sovereign, and our judicial system, increasingly subject to judicial review and intervention by a court most of whose judges come from other countries, some of whose courts were, less than 40 years ago (a time when some of these judges were starting to make their way in their professions) committing political dissidents to psychiatric institutions!  The damage caused by our ability to trade worldwide being dependant perhaps on the  feuding of Belgian regional politicians, (the same can be said of any attempt to reform the EU from within, just consider the long running farce which is the Common Agricultural Policy). Then of course there is the elephant standing in the corner of the room. The almost inevitable collapse of the Euro Zone under its own contradictions (when the Germans have had enough of baling out the bankrupt countries on the southern and western fringes). What price freedom of movement of labour when that happens? The economic damage from that collapse alone would likely be even greater, and we would have little if any control over its effects.

 

On balance I think we will be better off facing a hit now.

Edited November 29, 2016 by JAG

[happy Joe]

19 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

Actually, with so many Brits like you, I'm going to be pro Brexit and take up residency in another EU country. I was hoping for a useful discussion but you are obviously closed to that.

 

That is exactly my case.

 

Having the good fortune not to be British, I ardently wish for a frank and definitive separation, without possibility of return. The rude maneuvers of May government trying to divide the 27 dissuaded all to extend hand.

 

For us Europeans, the time has come to advance towards Russia. The departure of the UK and the election of D. Trump make it likely this movement that will take shape soon.

 

And for you English, you will have to rebuild an economy on new foundations. I do not doubt that you will succeed but it will cost you a considerable amount of efforts that many consider perfectly useless.

[JAG]

8 minutes ago, happy Joe said:

 

That is exactly my case.

 

Having the good fortune not to be British, I ardently wish for a frank and definitive separation, without possibility of return. The rude maneuvers of May government trying to divide the 27 dissuaded all to extend hand.

 

For us Europeans, the time has come to advance towards Russia. The departure of the UK and the election of D. Trump make it likely this movement that will take shape soon.

 

And for you English, you will have to rebuild an economy on new foundations. I do not doubt that you will succeed but it will cost you a considerable amount of efforts that many consider perfectly useless.

Hmm, in the context of historical endeavours to unite Europe, advancing on Russia has never really worked out well!

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

A "hard Brexit" may damage almost every sector of the UK economy, (although I am not going to lose much sleep over "the creative industries suffering a body blow"); however economic damage can be repaired. Any damage needs to be compared with the likely damage to our society, way of life and the institutions which sustain it if we remain in an ever more interventionist, federally inclined and determinedly non democratic union.  Our Parliament, which should be sovereign, and our judicial system, increasingly subject to judicial review and intervention by a court most of whose judges come from other countries, some of whose courts were, less than 40 years ago (a time when some of these judges were starting to make their way in their professions) committing political dissidents to psychiatric institutions!  The damage caused by our ability to trade worldwide being dependant perhaps on the  feuding of Belgian regional politicians, (the same can be said of any attempt to reform the EU from within, just consider the long running farce which is the Common Agricultural Policy). Then of course there is the elephant standing in the corner of the room. The almost inevitable collapse of the Euro Zone under its own contradictions (when the Germans have had enough of baling out the bankrupt countries on the southern and western fringes). What price freedom of movement of labour when that happens? The economic damage from that collapse alone would likely be even greater, and we would have little if any control over its effects.

 

On balance I think we will be better off facing a hit now.

 

I like this because it is a rational point of view. 

[Grouse]

4 minutes ago, JAG said:

Hmm, in the context of historical endeavours to unite Europe, advancing on Russia has never really worked out well!

 

Nah, too trite for me....

[JAG]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Nah, too trite for me....

I'm sure that's not really what he meant, but as a student of military history I was unable to resist!

 

Mind you I doubt what he really meant would work out well either!

[happy Joe]

4 minutes ago, JAG said:

Hmm, in the context of historical endeavours to unite Europe, advancing on Russia has never really worked out well!

 

This is perfectly true, but if you look at history, the unions between European countries have never lasted.

This is why there needs to be a strong will associated with tangible economic ties to hope for success.

[SheungWan]

20 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

The countries still in the EU want Briton back as  they  all know  there will be  no  money  coming from  Italy,  Greece, or  other poor  countries of Europe.  Truth  said.

Geezer

 

The UK hasn't left yet.

[Prbkk]

23 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

The countries still in the EU want Briton back as  they  all know  there will be  no  money  coming from  Italy,  Greece, or  other poor  countries of Europe.  Truth  said.

Geezer

 

It looks quite possible that Renzi is going to have to fall on his sword and even if he survives the referendum, he is likely to be swept away by this Grillo character ( who makes Trump and Falange-Farago-Farage look like sophisticates. The outcome in Austria is meaningless but Italy could be next out the door.

[Linzz]

On 11/29/2016 at 0:41 AM, Grouse said:

 

Why?

 

Because it's been falling against the USD since 2007

[Linzz]

On 11/29/2016 at 0:44 AM, onthesoi said:

 

Why do you doubt it?

 

The result of the brexit vote is the sole reason why the arse fell out of the pound.

 

As the first rumour circulated that the submission of article 50 could possibly be challenged the pound immediately strengthed. 

 

The government would'nt have to "re-join" the EU as the Uk never left.

 

The arse fell out of the Pound in 2007 and again in 2014. It has never recovered

[Linzz]

On 11/29/2016 at 5:23 AM, The Dark Lord said:

idiotic politicians who are elected and paid for by the people to represent the people but who believe they know better than those who they are supposed to represent.

 

Yes it will go to parliament because the referendum is non binding, so essentially it was just a poll. Politicians rarely take notice of polls.

[onthesoi]

8 minutes ago, Linzz said:

 

The arse fell out of the Pound in 2007 and again in 2014. It has never recovered

 

So what is your point exactly?

 

The pound has been taking a beating over the last decade so it doesn't matter if it takes another beating ...even if it was/is avoidable?

[Linzz]

On 11/29/2016 at 5:55 AM, dunroaming said:

I think that there is inaction because there is no clear direction. There was no action plan because none of the parties thought that more people would vote to leave rather than remain.  It hadn't been thought through and the whole campaign was based on propaganda.  When it became reality then they had no idea how to progress from there.

 

The politicians have once again shown themselves to be a complete bunch of no-hopers. 

 

Agree. Similarly with the US elections. That is why it is dangerous to make promises based on predictions you must agree. They have all ended up eating their hats. Politicians rarely keep their promises even though they know how to read the tea leaves

[Linzz]

14 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

 

So what is your point exactly?

 

The pound has been taking a beating over the last decade so it doesn't matter if it takes another beating ...even if it was/is avoidable?

 

The point is that no Brexit would have had little difference in the long term. The recent drop could be recoverable. If there has been such a massive devaluation of the pound in the time of being in the EU, (at least since 2007) perhaps being out and making new agreements might change that.

[onthesoi]

6 minutes ago, Linzz said:

 

The point is that no Brexit would have had little difference in the long term. The recent drop could be recoverable. If there has been such a massive devaluation of the pound in the time of being in the EU, (at least since 2007) perhaps being out and making new agreements might change that.

 

It's impossible to know what would have happened in the long term if the Brexit vote went the other way.

 

All we can say for sure is that 23% was wiped of the pound after the vote that did happen.

 

So yes, you're really are saying it doesn't matter that the pound has taken another massive hit via Brexit as it was going down the pan anyway ....which makes absolutely no sense.  Surely if the pound is going down the pan over the long term then you handle it with kid gloves and do what you can to stabilise or slow the decline? 

Edited November 29, 2016 by onthesoi

[Linzz]

3 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

 

It's impossible to know what would have happened in the long term if the Brexit vote went the other way.

 

All we can say for sure is that 23% was wiped of the pound after the vote that did happen.

 

So yes, you're really are saying it doesn't matter that the pound has taken another massive hit via Brexit as it was going down the pan anyway ....which makes absolutely no sense.  Surely if the pound is going down the pan over the long term then you handle it with kid gloves and do what you can to stabilise or slow the decline? 

 

I never said it didn't matter. I said it was probably unavoidable. You disagree and that's fine. You think that staying in the EU would halt the slide since 2007. Perhaps there needs  to be a new approach but with all experiments there is risk. The pound dropped with the vote because of uncertainty. The uncertainty continues in the twilight zone between the vote and the exit. The sooner action is taken and a new course set don't expect confidence and a rise in the pound to return.

[onthesoi]

Just now, Linzz said:

 

I never said it didn't matter. I said it was probably unavoidable.

 

No you said "The point is that no Brexit would have had little difference" ...which is the same as saying the pound's devaluation would have happened anyway with or without Brexit which is the same as saying it doesn't matter.

 

You cant say it matters and it would have happened anyway, you can't have both, you have to choose one or the other lolz...

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

 

No you said "The point is that no Brexit would have had little difference" ...which is the same as saying the pound's devaluation would have happened anyway with or without Brexit which is the same as saying it doesn't matter.

 

You cant say it matters and it would have happened anyway, you can't have both, you have to choose one or the other lolz...

 

The Brexiteers are split between those who recognise that the downward lurch of sterling is a negative but wish to pin the blame elsewhere and those who argue that sterling's loss is a positive and acknowlege nay proclaim responsibility. And there are those who will flip-flop between the two whichever seems to be in vogue at the time. They are not wedded to either position other than as a defensive arguing point. Just an advance pillbox for that which really motivates them.

[chiang mai]

"Thanks to the Brexit vote and the subsequent crash in value of the pound, the UK was ranked as suffering the worst losses in household wealth in the world in the last year.

Credit Suisse estimates that the decision to leave the EU wiped £1.5 trillion from Britain’s collective wealth, and saw the number of US dollar millionaires in the country fall by 406,000".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/credit-suisse-global-wealth-world-most-unequal-countries-revealed-a7434431.html

 

I know this is not a quote from The Sun or The Express but it's still true! 

[AllanB]

On 30/11/2016 at 7:47 AM, chiang mai said:

 

 

For any of you who think "remain" was a good idea in any way, watch this:-

 

 

[chiang mai]

Restore my quote or delete it entirely, otherwise your post is highly misleading and against rules - I'm not supporting Remain, I simply posted a link from the Independent!

Edited December 2, 2016 by chiang mai