MH370 officials: Crash site could be north of search area

[webfact]

MH370 officials: Crash site could be north of search area

By KRISTEN GELINEAU

 

SYDNEY (AP) — A team of international investigators hunting for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 said Tuesday it has concluded the plane is unlikely to be found in a stretch of the Indian Ocean search crews have been combing for two years, and may instead have crashed in an area farther to the north.

 

The conclusion raises the possibility that the search for the Boeing 777 could continue well beyond next month, when crews are expected to finish their deep sea sonar hunt of the current search zone west of Australia. But Australia's transport minister suggested that was doubtful.

 

The latest analysis of the plane's whereabouts comes in a report from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is leading the search for the aircraft. The report is the result of a November meeting of international and Australian experts who re-examined all the data used to narrow down the search area for the plane, which vanished during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board.

 

In the years since the plane disappeared, experts have analyzed a series of exchanges between the aircraft and a satellite to estimate a probable crash site along what's known as the seventh arc — a vast arc of ocean that runs through the southern hemisphere. A deep sea search of a 120,000-square kilometer (46,000-square mile) stretch of water along the seventh arc has so far come up empty.

 

In November, the experts went back over the satellite data, along with the results of a new ocean drift analysis of the more than 20 items of debris likely to have come from the plane that have washed ashore on beaches throughout the Indian Ocean. The analysis, which looked at where the items washed ashore and when, suggested the debris originated in an area farther north along the arc from the current search zone.

 

Given the number of aircraft parts found so far, the team concluded that there must have been a debris field floating on the surface of the water when the plane crashed. So they eliminated an area that had already been the subject of a surface search by air crews in the early stages of the hunt.

 

That left a 25,000-square kilometer (9,700-square mile) area immediately to the north of the current search zone as the most likely place where the plane hit the ocean, the ATSB report said.

 

The investigators concluded that there is "a high degree of confidence" that the plane is not in the current search area. And they agreed that the new area needs to be searched.

 

"The experts concluded that, if this area were to be searched, prospective areas for locating the aircraft wreckage, based on all the analysis to date, would be exhausted," the report said.

 

However, a new search would require fresh funding commitments from the countries involved in the hunt. Malaysia, Australia and China agreed in July that the $160 million search will be suspended once the current stretch of ocean is exhausted unless new evidence emerges that would pinpoint the plane's exact location.

 

Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester suggested an extension of the hunt based on the latest analysis was unlikely, noting that the report "does not give a specific location of the missing aircraft."

 

"As agreed at the Tripartite Ministers meeting in Malaysia in July we will be suspending the search unless credible evidence is available that identifies the specific location of the aircraft," Chester said in a statement. "The search for MH370 has been the largest in aviation history and has tested the limits of technology, and the capacity of our experts and people at sea."

 

Australian government oceanographer David Griffin, who worked on the drift analysis, said he is confident the plane is in the newly identified search area, though he conceded it doesn't completely rule out the possibility that the plane rests in the current search area and was somehow missed by search crews.

 

"It could have been where we were searching, absolutely, but the new information does clarify that immediately north is more likely," Griffin said.

 

As part of their analysis, Griffin and his team built replicas of the first piece of debris that was found — a wing fragment known as a flaperon that was discovered on Reunion Island off the African coast in July last year. The team then set the replicas adrift, measuring how fast they traveled and noting how much the wind influences their rate of speed. They then ran computer simulations of how several of the debris pieces could have drifted, which helped give them a picture of where they originated.

 

The newly identified search zone does include an area that was searched very early on in the hunt, but crews didn't comb a wide enough area to rule it out, Griffin said. "They didn't go quite far enough away from the arc to cover all possibilities," he said.

 

The fact that crews were so close to the area now identified as the likeliest crash site — coupled with the lack of commitment to search the new area — is sure to frustrate families of those on board, who have been pushing the governments involved in the hunt to continue searching for their loved ones. Earlier this month, several family members traveled to Madagascar — where several pieces of potential debris have been found — to ask residents to look out for more.

___

Associated Press reporter Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia, contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-12-20

[bark]

Sorry to say, but they need to stop this search, now.

Take the victims families out to the area, where they think the plane crashed and let them throw flowers and say prayers.

The costs of this search is out of sight. Who will pay back the money to the Aussie Government ??

Buried at sea.

 

[Si Thea01]

3 hours ago, bark said:

Sorry to say, but they need to stop this search, now.

Take the victims families out to the area, where they think the plane crashed and let them throw flowers and say prayers.

The costs of this search is out of sight. Who will pay back the money to the Aussie Government ??

Buried at sea.

 

 

Agree with stopping the search and let the relatives give their final respects.  As far as the cost, it should be up to the Malaysian government but given how the Australian governments are such soft touches, the cost will end up being met by the Australian taxpayer.

[Prbkk]

This is an aviation variation of the Mary Celeste. We , more importantly the families, will never know. People will still be speculating in 100 years, just like Amelia Erhardt.

[Si Thea01]

Just now, Prbkk said:

This is an aviation variation of the Mary Celeste. We , more importantly the families, will never know. People will still be speculating in 100 years, just like Amelia Erhardt.

 

Unfortunately, given what has happened over 3 years looks very much like going the way you're suggesting. 

[toofarnorth]

3 hours ago, bark said:

Sorry to say, but they need to stop this search, now.

Take the victims families out to the area, where they think the plane crashed and let them throw flowers and say prayers.

The costs of this search is out of sight. Who will pay back the money to the Aussie Government ??

Buried at sea.

 

I agree with you , search for missing people certainly  , heart breaking when a child dissappears , but in this case I think it needs closure . 

[bark]

3 hours ago, Si Thea01 said:

 

Agree with stopping the search and let the relatives give their final respects.  As far as the cost, it should be up to the Malaysian government but given how the Australian governments are such soft touches, the cost will end up being met by the Australian taxpayer.

Malaysia pay some, but it is near Australia( maybe). They also pay.

[up-country_sinclair]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

MH370 officials: Crash site could be north of search area

 

 

Considering that nearly three years have passed, I think these "officials" should resign themselves to the very real possibility that the crash site could also be south, east and west of the search area.

[Cook my sock]

It's probably more like many hundreds of miles north west of search area

[Si Thea01]

8 hours ago, bark said:

Malaysia pay some, but it is near Australia( maybe). They also pay.

 

According to a recent report, Malaysia did contribute A$40 million and China, who initially sent some surface vessels to assist in the search, have not contributed any funds, and no longer have any vessels involved.  So is it fair that Australia meets the majority?

Edited December 20, 2016 by Si Thea01

[halloween]

Even if it is found, what is the benefit?

[simple1]

2 hours ago, Si Thea01 said:

 

According to a recent report, Malaysia did contribute A$40 million and China, who initially sent some surface vessels to assist in the search, have not contributed any funds, and no longer have any vessels involved.  So is it fair that Australia meets the majority?

 

Chinese contributed a minimum of AUD20million.

 

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/11/22/aus-malaysia-thank-china/

 

Not sure of third party country obligations, other than goodwill, to fund the search as the search area is the Oz govt responsibility

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by simple1

[Si Thea01]

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

Chinese contributed a minimum of AUD20million.

 

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/11/22/aus-malaysia-thank-china/

 

Not sure of third party countries requirements, other than goodwill, to fund the search as the search area is the Oz govt responsibility

 

 

Thank you for the update but I wouldn't call Malaysia and China 3rd party countries, considering it was a Malaysian Airline, being flown by a Malaysian and that majority of passengers were Malaysian and Chinese.  I still stick by my statement that the Australian Government is a soft touch.  The cost should be divided equally.   

[simple1]

6 minutes ago, Si Thea01 said:

 

Thank you for the update but I wouldn't call Malaysia and China 3rd party countries, considering it was a Malaysian Airline, being flown by a Malaysian and that majority of passengers were Malaysian and Chinese.  I still stick by my statement that the Australian Government is a soft touch.  The cost should be divided equally.   

 

Malaysia originally committed AUD60million & later promised to match additional Oz funding for the search. Don't know the current level of payment/s rec'd from Malaysia.

 

http://jacc.gov.au/about.aspx

[Cook my sock]

Even if it is found, what is the benefit?

Empathy alert

[Rhys]

RIP  Closure is needed NOW.. no need to torment the loved ones...

 

[boomerangutang]

What's the official conclusion on cause?  I think it was pilot mass-murder, but it's understandable that Malaysian Airlines and the gov't will do all they can to avoid that conclusion.   

[Cook my sock]

What's the official conclusion on cause?  I think it was pilot mass-murder, but it's understandable that Malaysian Airlines and the gov't will do all they can to avoid that conclusion.   

The story keeps changing... at least one government knows more than it's letting on.

[halloween]

16 hours ago, Cook my sock said:

Empathy alert

What's the matter, couldn't think of any real benefit?

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, Si Thea01 said:

 

Thank you for the update but I wouldn't call Malaysia and China 3rd party countries, considering it was a Malaysian Airline, being flown by a Malaysian and that majority of passengers were Malaysian and Chinese.  I still stick by my statement that the Australian Government is a soft touch.  The cost should be divided equally.   

IMO it is no responsibility of Australia at all. Not their plane or crew. I thought Australia was broke anyway.

I don't get why it is such a big deal to find the plane. People are lost all the time and the government doesn't spend millions looking after a few weeks.

The only question should be if the people were actually on the plane for insurance and inheritance purposes.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Cook my sock said:

Empathy alert

Empathy doesn't come into it when it is costing millions of taxpayer bucks. Empathy is the church service and people saying "so sorry for your loss".

[simple1]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO it is no responsibility of Australia at all. Not their plane or crew. I thought Australia was broke anyway.

I don't get why it is such a big deal to find the plane. People are lost all the time and the government doesn't spend millions looking after a few weeks.

The only question should be if the people were actually on the plane for insurance and inheritance purposes.

 

 

 

Australia has obligations under international law for the search area. Currently the search effort will cease in the next week or so unless plausible justification can be presented to expand the search area.

 

There are cold case murder investigations that re-visit the case over decades, it must cost significant sums of money - it's called trying to seek justice for the victims and to bring comfort to relatives. Aside from international treaty obligations and seeking to identify any safety lessons to be learned for aviation, the same would apply to the MH370 disaster.

 

[Cook my sock]

Pressure from the Chinese. Wanting to solve the biggest mystery since Jack the Ripper. Learning what happened so the airline industry can learn and move on. Insurance companies.. the families of victims. Thinking they had located the area the plane had crashed.

[Credo]

Perhaps the Chinese could leave the South China Sea and head out for the Pacific and find the plane.   

[outsider]

I am no conspiracy theorist. But I firmly believe that there is no place on earth that is beyond the coverage of satellites. Some people somewhere know exactly where this plane is. MH370 may probably be just a small part in a bigger chain of events that has yet to be fully played out.

[Cook my sock]

Perhaps the Chinese could leave the South China Sea and head out for the Pacific and find the plane.   

Do your research

[Peterw42]

14 hours ago, outsider said:

I am no conspiracy theorist. But I firmly believe that there is no place on earth that is beyond the coverage of satellites. Some people somewhere know exactly where this plane is. MH370 may probably be just a small part in a bigger chain of events that has yet to be fully played out.

 

I hate to break it to you, but thinking "people know where the plane is and its part of bigger events". Is by definition a conspiracy theory.

[outsider]

7 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

 

I hate to break it to you, but thinking "people know where the plane is and its part of bigger events". Is by definition a conspiracy theory.

 

Hmm... good point. Taken. Perhaps a rephrase - "I don't normally indulge in conspiracy theories but in this case... " I guess that should redress the issue.

Edited December 23, 2016 by outsider

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/22/2016 at 4:03 PM, simple1 said:

 

Australia has obligations under international law for the search area. Currently the search effort will cease in the next week or so unless plausible justification can be presented to expand the search area.

 

There are cold case murder investigations that re-visit the case over decades, it must cost significant sums of money - it's called trying to seek justice for the victims and to bring comfort to relatives. Aside from international treaty obligations and seeking to identify any safety lessons to be learned for aviation, the same would apply to the MH370 disaster.

 

Did they spend as much time and money searching for the plane that vanished some years ago, I think off sth America and it was ?French plane?

I don't remember them doing so.

I can certainly understand searching for a "reasonable" length of time, perhaps 3 months, but once there is no possibility of finding anyone alive, I do not agree that a country has to spend millions of taxpayer money just because the plane MIGHT have gone down in their area of influence.

[simple1]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Did they spend as much time and money searching for the plane that vanished some years ago, I think off sth America and it was ?French plane?

I don't remember them doing so.

I can certainly understand searching for a "reasonable" length of time, perhaps 3 months, but once there is no possibility of finding anyone alive, I do not agree that a country has to spend millions of taxpayer money just because the plane MIGHT have gone down in their area of influence.

 

It is not an "area of influence", the search areas is covered by Australia's legal commitment to international maritime treaties. Whether you agree with the project expenditure or not is irrelevant.

 

The Air France plane was located within a very short time, but the black boxes were not able to be recovered until a few years later which assisted investigators to identify the causes of the crash and recommend further air safety measures

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447