Govt faces a huge challenge on growth amid bleak outlook
By SOMLUCK SRIMALEE 
THE NATION

 

 

BANGKOK: -- NEXT YEAR a major challenge for the government will be to maintain economic growth at 3 per cent at least, when it is expected that the country’s exports will still face unpredictable situations.

 

The World Bank has cut its global-growth outlook for 2017 from early estimates of 3.1 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

 

Key economic engines that will drive economic growth next year include government spending to develop the country’s infrastructure, which is estimated to be worth Bt2 trillion, and tourism.

 

The tourism target in 2017 is at least Bt36 million although the policy to restrict cheap tour packages from China, so-called zero-dollar tours, is expected to reduce the number of Chinese tourists to Thailand, according to Bank of Thailand Governor Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob.

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30302602

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-12-22

Based on the venerable Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob, it sounds like the zero dollar tours were good for the country but damaging to a certain number of egos

At 3 u can bet your bottom buck that it is nearer to 1.8...............................

7 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Based on the venerable Dr Veerathai Santiprabhob, it sounds like the zero dollar tours were good for the country but damaging to a certain number of egos

 

As far as I know, zero dollar tours offered below cost package in-bound and fleeced the Chinese tourists at designated shops. Is this not a Chinese problem, not Thai? As long as the tour organizers pay the Thai side for flight and accommodation, what seem the issue. China should be regulating not Thailand, right? Too much kissing up to China. 

When the Thai Gov introduces the 10 yr visa for foreigners with compulsory health insurance, watch the farang exodus leaving behind half-built houses; half educated Thai kids; half empty bars/hotels/condos; half used supermarkets/stores.

This idea is half baked.  Has Thai Visa no voice?  Does any of our members have the ear of influential Thais?

11 minutes ago, mikebell said:

When the Thai Gov introduces the 10 yr visa for foreigners with compulsory health insurance, watch the farang exodus leaving behind half-built houses; half educated Thai kids; half empty bars/hotels/condos; half used supermarkets/stores.

This idea is half baked.  Has Thai Visa no voice?  Does any of our members have the ear of influential Thais?

I was under the impression that the 10 year visa was an additional option/route to the existing visa/extension options rather than a compulsory route.

If this is the case there'll be no need for an exodus?

I hope you are right MichaelJohn but I can't find any definitive pronouncement except that existing 'Retirement visa' holders MIGHT be grandfathered in.

"tourism target in 2017 is at least Bt36 million "looks like

things are going from bad to worse,wonder  what TAT has

to say about this. unless its an other misprint.

regards Worgeordie

25 minutes ago, mikebell said:

When the Thai Gov introduces the 10 yr visa for foreigners with compulsory health insurance, watch the farang exodus leaving behind half-built houses; half educated Thai kids; half empty bars/hotels/condos; half used supermarkets/stores.

This idea is half baked.  Has Thai Visa no voice?  Does any of our members have the ear of influential Thais?

Won't happen. People residing here continuously on a yearly basis don't have visas, they usually have annual extensions of permission to stay.

10 year visas for foreigners, with their requirements,  is a different kettle of fish. 

There isn't going to be a mass exodus anytime, it's not in the interests of the government..

Well well.  All the hostile cards to businesses have been played.  Lack of competitive environment, draconian internet monitoring, lack of rights for businesses and individuals, lack of capacity to reform, making visas more difficult, cutting skilled labor force by cracking down on illegal immigration, putting the education system further into reverse, years of conflict and poor management, poor infrastructure, low motivated and skilled workforce, poor attention to the environment and tourist sector.  Is it any suprise that the economy is effectively in reverse.

I was under the impression that the 10 year visa was an additional option/route to the existing visa/extension options rather than a compulsory route.
If this is the case there'll be no need for an exodus?

For goodness sake, what do you think you are, the voice of reason? The fellows enjoying his moment of despair, and there you are, challenging his inner "Eyore"!

:)

Just last month the Thai economic gurus were saying that economic growth would come in at 3.4%. Now it appears the truth needs to be faced and they have revised that downwards to "at least"  3% because the World Bank has blown the whistle on them and predicted 2.8% which looks like being the lowest of any ASEAN country. The economic wizardry of army generals is on display for for all to see.

 

Ha! I've just been reading on another thread how the tourists will flock...so that ought to balance the scales.

When the Thai Gov introduces the 10 yr visa for foreigners with compulsory health insurance, watch the farang exodus leaving behind half-built houses; half educated Thai kids; half empty bars/hotels/condos; half used supermarkets/stores.
This idea is half baked.  Has Thai Visa no voice?  Does any of our members have the ear of influential Thais?

Deary me how misinformed can you possibly be? It's been discussed in a thousand posts already, don't be lazy and and do some research!

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

9 hours ago, webfact said:

include government spending

who are know for their frugality. If they could get their nose out of all this non essential crap like controlling people and the internet they might accomplish something. There are so many points of distraction here that they do not focus on the real problem in fact they create problems. When one keeps shooting themselves in the foot they might find it hard to walk in time and say "Gee that hurts"

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Govt faces a huge challenge on growth amid bleak outlook

Looks like a computer crimes act comment. 

3 hours ago, mcfish said:

Deary me how misinformed can you possibly be? It's been discussed in a thousand posts already, don't be lazy and and do some research!

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk
 

yes and the bottom line is we are in limbo waiting to find out if this new "visa" is optional or a replacement for the retirement extension of stay. 

yes and the bottom line is we are in limbo waiting to find out if this new "visa" is optional or a replacement for the retirement extension of stay. 

Ughhhh

Your the only one waiting.

The issue was put to bed a month ago. But please keep posting it's good entertainment.

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8 minutes ago, mcfish said:

Ughhhh

Your the only one waiting.

The issue was put to bed a month ago. But please keep posting it's good entertainment.

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

really? what was the bottom line on this?

And yet again a thread on the state of the economy/price of fish looks to be derailed by another gaggle of posts relating to a visa which may or may not be in the offing. The thread title is  Govt faces a huge challenge on growth amid bleak outlook . Stick to it.

5 hours ago, Brer Fox said:

Just last month the Thai economic gurus were saying that economic growth would come in at 3.4%. Now it appears the truth needs to be faced and they have revised that downwards to "at least"  3% because the World Bank has blown the whistle on them and predicted 2.8% which looks like being the lowest of any ASEAN country. The economic wizardry of army generals is on display for for all to see.

 

All they do is throw two dice on the table; and put decimal point between the numbers. Can roll/change every day.

56 minutes ago, mcfish said:

Ughhhh

Your the only one waiting.

The issue was put to bed a month ago. But please keep posting it's good entertainment.

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

I think the spending on infrastructure is a win win deal for all Thais,  creating good jobs to do this will get the economy rolling at least better than it is.  I think Thailand will be a loser in the tourism game if they don't start to clean up garbage and corruption.  I hope they have learned a lesson that one million cheap charlie Chinese won't replace a couple thousand money spewing machines from the west. I bet I spent more in one day here than a whole bus load of those Chinese do in a week.  I think the government underestimates the money spent here by westerners on prostitution that gets spent into the economy. That number is huge and doesn't show up on their books but they will sure miss it when/if its gone.

 

46 minutes ago, Grubster said:

  I think the government underestimates the money spent here by westerners on prostitution that gets spent into the economy

 

As I understand it, most of the cash spent on prostitution is spent by Thais, but still every little helps.  However, surely most of Westerners' money is spent on accommodation, travel and food, keeping the hotels and restaurants in business and being of considerable benefit to the economy. If tourism were to drop by (say) 10%, instead of increasing as optimistically forecast (yet again) the overall effect would be quite dramatic, when exports are doing so badly.

9 hours ago, mikebell said:

I hope you are right MichaelJohn but I can't find any definitive pronouncement except that existing 'Retirement visa' holders MIGHT be grandfathered in.

 

When I spoke to the Immigration people at the Khampaeng Phet office they told me that as far as they understand the 10 year visa is in addition to the existing visas and not a replacement. This was verbal but it was an Immigration office.

 

It is also what I understand from the news reports and from the information posted on TVF.

 

If you know any different or have links to the correct information then please post it for everyone to read and understand.