No serious tsunami threat for Thailand in near future
By Pratch Rujivanarom 
The Nation 

 

Tourists yesterday read the names of tsunami victims at Ban Nam Khem Tsunami Memorial Park in Phang Nga. The 12th anniversary of the tragedy is today. Photo By Pratch Rujivanarom

 

BANGKOK: -- THAILAND is unlikely to be affected by another deadly tsunami any time soon, an earthquake expert has stated, although the authorities say the country is prepared to respond if one does occur.

 

In boosting preparedness, relevant parties on various fronts including the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) have emphasised the need to educate people about natural-disaster threats. 

 

Today marks the 12th anniversary of the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami, triggered by a gigantic 9.1 magnitude earthquake on the ocean floor north of Sumatra Island that resulted in 14 countries, including Thailand, being hit by a tsunami. 

 

To mark this year’s anniversary, TRF geology researcher Passakorn Pananont launched an initiative to train teachers in tsunami-prone areas so they better understand tsunamis and will know how to react if one occurs.

 

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30302845

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-12-26

 

How can you possibly state there is 'no serious tsunami  in the near future' ? 

 

Can hardly predict the weather let alone earthquakes. 

I expect that his prediction would have been the same on the 25th of December 12 years ago.  What's the old saying: "Commentator's Jinx"!

Simply say we are prepared, the "unlikely" comment is rash and typical.

I would only listen to the other guy who did warn of earthquakes in the early 2000s.

 

These other monkeys have no clue where the banana is growing.

Famous last words...

 

Paiboon said, "...the recurrence interval for such a gigantic earthquake was once every 15 years. And the most recent earthquake on this scale already happened in 2012, so it will take around 10 years to gather the energy for the next big earthquake..."

 

One of the greatest issues facing Thailand (and, we see it time and time again) is that the people here listen to (and actually believe) these crackpots !!!

 

 

The article goes on to note that, with regard to tsunami preparation, Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department deputy director Kobchai Boonyaorana said the government was fully prepared for a tsunami because of regular response training and well-maintained warning systems.

 

Sadly, a quick visit to the NDBC web site for one of the Thai tsunami warning buoys tells a different story (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=23401)

 

 

 

 

 

Read an article from post 2005 tsunami undersea geologic exploration that said Sumatra fault characterized by very long interval between slip events - but each event characterized by multiple earthquakes!

 

 

Summary of of a different article from 2008:

 

Introduction Earthquake Probability Stress Change Earthquake Hazard

Earthquake Hazard

In Summary

Stress changes can have a strong influence on earthquake probability.

 Coefficients of friction may be high, > 0.6.

 Large slip deficits on the Sumatran fault

correlate with increases in Coulomb stress.

Northern Sumatra is likely primed for an earthquake greater between M 6.9 and 7.8 

I think we all no know to take anything Thai authorities say with a pinch of salt ! This latest proclamation is nothing short of nonsense ! How can they possibly know ! They can only monitor what they deam to be the areas of concern. It would have been better to just leave it saying we are continually monitoring the situation and we will remain closely following patterns and will make sure our warning and prevention methods reamain working and  in place ! Wonder can they do that with there's known lack of upkeep and maintenance !

Edited December 26, 20169 yr by Nigeone

As soon as you read the words "Thai expert" don't bother reading on.

Trying to predict Mother Nature !,dont even try,she will

turn around and bite you on the arse .

regards worgeordie

Didn't realise earthquake prediction was so advanced. 

What a stupid thing to say.......

How is it that in Thailand there never seems to be a "threat" from anything...terrorism...tsunami.....diseases.....etc etc etc.....amazing....This must be the safest place in the world...

I take this as a serious threat. 

It must be news from the fortune-teller !

next? a spelling bee contest. 

 

3 hours ago, optad said:

How can you possibly state there is 'no serious tsunami  in the near future' ? 

 

Can hardly predict the weather let alone earthquakes. 

I agree totally ....predict ...no serious....these two words are weight a lot...nature or else in mass is never for long term predictable....try to predict the weather for the next 4 years...that is not possible . These statements are always asking ourselves who is blindfolded.

1 hour ago, Bluespunk said:

Didn't realise earthquake prediction was so advanced. 

Only in Thailand, the world leader in earthquake prediction!

I almost lost my coffee on that one! SMH

 

are guys making daft statements like this called out in the local media?

The country that brought cures to AIDS, Ebola and cancer, now brings you precise Earthquake- predictions!

I hope that expert took into account all the global warming going on, is bound to make that fault more slippery.

3 hours ago, wayned said:

I expect that his prediction would have been the same on the 25th of December 12 years ago.  What's the old saying: "Commentator's Jinx"!

 

In UK it might be called something like doing a ' Michael Fish'

Edited December 26, 20169 yr by overherebc

4 hours ago, optad said:

How can you possibly state there is 'no serious tsunami  in the near future' ? 

 

Can hardly predict the weather let alone earthquakes. 

If questionable predictions regarding voting and election results, and tourist arrivals work well here, why not try it on clearly foreseeable subjects like earthquakes and meteors? 

There won't be another tsunami soon; Trump could never be elected US president; Leicester can never win the EPL etc.

2 hours ago, KIWIBATCH said:

How is it that in Thailand there never seems to be a "threat" from anything...terrorism...tsunami.....diseases.....etc etc etc.....amazing....This must be the safest place in the world...

 

Trust us we are Thai, Thailand safe krab.

 

That's why they removed ALL the bins from the markets/streets/mall entrances and gave training to Phang-na inhabitants how to deal in case of a tsunami.

 

Yesterday we drove into the parkinggarage of a big Central mall, waited for the girl in the booth to open the electric barrier.......there was nobody in the booth!! They stopped with that so everybody can drive in/out now unchecked.

 

4 weeks ago they even had security to let us open the carboot and now there's nobody at all. So i feel vely safe now.

Edited December 26, 20169 yr by fruitman

It makes me worried to see statements like that.  If you are religious I guess you could say there is someone who knows.  It you are not, "Better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and let it all out."

Edited December 26, 20169 yr by timber

5 hours ago, waldroj said:

Paiboon said, "...the recurrence interval for such a gigantic earthquake was once every 15 years. And the most recent earthquake on this scale already happened in 2012, so it will take around 10 years to gather the energy for the next big earthquake..."

 

One of the greatest issues facing Thailand (and, we see it time and time again) is that the people here listen to (and actually believe) these crackpots !!!

 

 

The article goes on to note that, with regard to tsunami preparation, Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department deputy director Kobchai Boonyaorana said the government was fully prepared for a tsunami because of regular response training and well-maintained warning systems.

 

Sadly, a quick visit to the NDBC web site for one of the Thai tsunami warning buoys tells a different story (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=23401)

 

 

 

 

 

The warning systems would need to be in better condition than the evacuation signs, which are not in good condition,  faded, damaged.

I think it is a good reason the be afraid of tsunami then.