How's everyone weathering the storm?

[DDBKK]

Myself? I suppose I was one of the luckier ones with only being laid off since begging of July this year. 

 

I was on 28/28 out of the middle east. To give my boss his dues he did try and get the top tier management to save my role but it was a no go so off I went. Commencing a distance learning masters degree in Jan 2017 to hopefully move up the ranks quicker when things get back to normal and keep myself out of mischief in BKK. 

 

This is my first downturn experience and although every one is different I'm hopeful of this recent OPEC/NON OPEC agreement to cut production. 

 

So I guess I'm asking 2 questions..... 

 

1. How are you getting on yourself? 

 

2. Do you expect 2017 to be the year the bulk of us out of work will return to the patch if oil remains steady around $50-$60?

 

Here's to a prosperous New Year! 

 

Cheers

[guzzi850m2]

I guess I am luckier than you, I still have a job but took a hit in pay. My Company has so far laid off app 1000 job positions. 

 

No I don't think the bulk of off-shore workers will be back in work in 2017 but think it will be slightly better.

 

Many off-shore guys I know in Thailand have left for home, especially the ones that bought expensive toys like top end cars/bikes and didn't keep much/any of their money for a rainy day.

 

When the oil prices goes up, the US will increase oil fracking and I believe Donald Trump wants the US to be oil independent so it's very difficult to predict what the future will be like regarding oil off-shore.  

[YeahSiam]

I remember the days when, in general, the oil guys were a particularly vocal and boorish contingent on this forum telling anyone who'd give them 30 seconds ear-time just how great they were.

That said, a few were smart guys who appreciated their good fortune but who also realised that the sun wouldn't shine forever.

 

As for what the future holds, it's anyone's guess.

 

Frackers had their time in the sun but I don't think they'll find it as easy to raise money from investors as they did in the past given so many of them got burnt by defaults when drillers were going to the wall in their droves.

 

I think supply growth will keep a lid on prices so a return to the $100-150 a barrel of yesteryear are a long way off (unless, of course, the greenback gets smoked by all the inflation on the way).

[NanLaew]

1. Living off my huge reserves.

 

2. Late 2017 at the earliest.

 

Happy Hogmanay!

[impulse]

Look at the historic oil prices, take out the bubble from around 2005-2014, and it looks like the price is back to its historic trend.  I don't think it's going to be "lower for longer".  I think it's "back to normal".  Like the '70's and early '80s, it was fun while it lasted.  Unlike then, I adjusted my spending as if it was going to end one day.  Thank goodness (in this case, being burnt and skint for a few years trumped being smart).

 

Having been through 3 previous slumps, I think the most humane thing the oilfield employers could do is to warn their people to put aside at least 1/3 of their (admittedly oversized) paychecks for the day the next slump will see them unemployed.  Again.  Personally, I'd prefer to have 1/2 of my pay deferred and pay taxes on it later, when I need it.  Alas, that only works for the uber-wealthy and corporations.

 

I used to believe that a raise in pay didn't mean more cash, just a higher credit limit.  Today in Thailand, I live on about 10-15% of my gross and after the governments rob me, the rest is sitting and waiting for the day I get run off.  I have no illusions that I'll last through the next 5 years or so to retirement.   Certainly not in Thailand, which has horrible financial dynamics- small discoveries, offshore costs and a government increasingly looking to get rid of western "parasites".  

 

No housing debt, no car payment, no credit card debt, and I'm still nervous.  Repatriating to the USA is going to be a crap shoot because of existing health issues and the associated costs.  Still, looking forward to it...

Edited December 30, 2016 by impulse

[baneko]

1. I've been lucky up until now and still working although it could end anytime.

 

2. I think by the end of 2017 we could see $70 dollar oil.

 

I have had the advantage of living in the sticks with the odd blow out up in BKK. I always knew this would happen so planned ahead and got a stash just in case. I have no interest in going back to Scotland but you never know. Set my missus up with a mushroom farm which means shes self sufficient with cash. Lets hope for the best in 2017 for everyone.

[pigeonjake]

23 hours ago, baneko said:

1. I've been lucky up until now and still working although it could end anytime.

 

2. I think by the end of 2017 we could see $70 dollar oil.

 

I have had the advantage of living in the sticks with the odd blow out up in BKK. I always knew this would happen so planned ahead and got a stash just in case. I have no interest in going back to Scotland but you never know. Set my missus up with a mushroom farm which means shes self sufficient with cash. Lets hope for the best in 2017 for everyone.

i still go to scotland most years to work on bp kinniel, like you we are in the sticks with pigs and a new venture of crayfish, ill be away to scotland in a month or so, the pay they offer i just cant turn it down,,lol

all the best

jake

[Boon Mee]

Had to sell my gold Rolex watch and the 12 band puzzle rings plus retire earlier than I wanted to...

[Pdaz]

This is probably my forth downturn. Though the others were more regional and only meant going to West Africa, Oz or UK sector to keep busy. Been saving for a rainy day since my first trip offshore 27 yrs ago so no real downside for me. Still have work just not as regular as in the past. To be honest this is an upside as I have more time at home. Nothing left to pay for,  just food and utilities. My missus has a good business which pays our way. If things go to plan I intend to retire in four years. One more boom before then would be okay though :)

Just enough to stock up on toys for my twilight years..

[CGW]

1. I hit this last downturn at a good time for me, after 40 years offshore I was looking to wind down and do just one or two trips a year at most, the last five years working were good dayrates which I was able to stash as over the years had most of the toys! Can't drink & party like I used to be able too - the body says no! that saves quite a bit! So financially I have no worries, living in Isaan is not so expensive.

2. 2017 will be a better year than 2016, I reckon, but this has been a massive downturn, problem now is dayrates are at rock bottom, the first rigs to work will be the warm stacked rigs (there are ~35 Jackups, 15 Semi's & 8 Tenders warm stacked!), eventually the cold stacked rigs will come out when the dayrates are higher!

The New rigs (30+?) that are & have been due to be delivered that are in various shipyards I see no hope for! dayrates wont cover the cost of delivery from the shipyard, there are rigs that were due to be delivered two years ago sat in yards with minimum maintenance rusting away! it used to be a Jackup would pay for itself in the first two years!

So unless there is a "war" see a very slow and partial recovery to previous activity only.

Were paying for what was the lie of "Peak Oil" and so called fossil fuels!!

[Boon Mee]

^

Not to mention the scores of cold stacked rigs all over the globe.  Doubtful most of them will ever work again.  The sheer cost of getting a Generation 5 DP Drillship or Floater up and running is an extremely daunting undertaking!

[CGW]

^Little chance of any of the cold stacked or new "deepwater" rigs going to work anytime soon, needs to be some big increases in dayrates.

I was involved in trying to put a new deepwater semi to work last year, with the dayrates client was willing to pay it was impossible to make it happen! Dayrates have gone down further since then!!

Edited January 11, 2017 by CGW

[pipeliner42]

wow didn't know so many guys here worked in the oil and gas biz. I got enough money to ride out 2-3 years out in thailand or southeast asia without a hitch. But I'm worried about the future, I'm currently 26 and I don't know if I should stick around in the oil and gas biz or not or do a career change. I've been working in it for 3.5 years on shore before everything shit the bed and my six figure job went out the window and I'm left holding the bag.

 

I lucked out as I'm not like all the other young guys I know with a massive house and 5 kids with their childhood sweetheart. Now they're wallowing in misery right now as almost all got canned, schlumberger had mass layoffs and the directional drilling companies here in canada got wiped out, same with all the drillers. Wages on average here have been hit with a 30-50% discount! and all overtime and bonuses disappeared with all company vehicles.

[William Osborne]

@pipliner42... 6 figure job..??... what currency you talking ?

 

[sidgy]

Not worked since March 2016, cv with around 20 agencies but still nothing, I don't think there will be a upturn in drilling until it reaches around $65 and remains there for an extended period of time, things will pick up but it will be a steady growth rather than boom, also think it will be at least 3rd or 4th quarter before we see oil price at this level,and only if OPEC don't go behind each other's backs as is so often the case. That's my opinion anyway , most probably way of the mark
Personally, I'm still ok for a few years but it's still not nice eating into my savings, I'd be happy with one or two trips a year to keep me ticking over


Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

[sanemax]

If no one is drilling , then where does all the oil come from ?

[pipeliner42]

31 minutes ago, William Osborne said:

@pipliner42... 6 figure job..??... what currency you talking ?

 

 

This would be in CAD, as a canadian our currency crashed because of the oil crash, 2 years ago it was about 90-95c on the USD. I was working for a engineering and inspection company that serviced oil majors in Canada for their oil and gas infrastructure. Now the CAD is in the toilet, it's a good time to come skiing if your american though!

 

I was working in the midstream sector so it took a while before we got the mass layoffs because of the backlog of work that's usually saved up and paid for by the oil companies. Most of the guys in my line of work got their notices this year, but I've got friends working upstream that haven't worked since mid 2015.

 

Yea it kinda sucks that we're all twiddling our thumbs till WTI or Brent hits 60-70$/bbl range, it's going to be a lean year.

5 minutes ago, sanemax said:

If no one is drilling , then where does all the oil come from ?

 

You can't just turn off a producing well off like a light switch and secondly, once infrastructure is in place for piping and well completions it doesn't cost much to keep pumping. You just need to keep drilling once the reserves are being depleted.

 

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Nothing to worry about chaps.

 

On the immediate horizon is a naval war between America and China.  Spratleys or Taiwan you can choose your own det cord.

 

Don't lament the heady days of $150 a barell too much.  They are just around the corner.

[xraybaby]

21 hours ago, sanemax said:

If no one is drilling , then where does all the oil come from ?

Saudi. It's insane how fast they're producing since the downturn.

 

Never thought I'd be saying this, as it's the most joyless place I've ever worked, of all offshore areas, but i went back to the middle east at just the right time and have managed to hold down a job while many friends and ex-colleagues are really up the creek now. 

 

I've taken about a 40% salary cut in the past 18 months, but I genuinely just feel fortunate to still have a job at all. 

 

I don't think day rates are going to immediately follow the barrel price either, when it does go back up, but try telling my wife that! 

 

Luckily I've just managed to get her set up with her own business, running a restaurant down in Sattahip. In fact I need to seek advice on bettering that on this forum, if anyone has any pointers? Every satang counts now! 

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, xraybaby said:

Saudi. It's insane how fast they're producing since the downturn.

 

   Would it be possible for U.S oil companies to get oil from Syria/Iraq and then ship it back to the USA , without being detected ?

[xraybaby]

2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

 

   Would it be possible for U.S oil companies to get oil from Syria/Iraq and then ship it back to the USA , without being detected ?

Being the extreme cynic that I am, I'd  say "yes, probably." 

 

But I am not up on the worldwide oil black market - i just drive ships! 

[Pdaz]

Good News. Just picked up 6 weeks work starting in Feb. There are still projects starting here and there. Luckily I do mostly construction and IRM, my sector not hit as badly as exploration/drilling. Hopefully the year will busy up and everyone can get back to earning a living.. Good luck.

[pipeliner42]

Black market oil is how Boko Haram and ISIS make their $$$$! Pop open a pipeline and fill your boots up

[DDBKK]

A flurry of office based roles in the middle east and Europe have been posted this past week which raised an eyebrow in the positive sense. Still no bites but it's definitely picking up.

[sanemax]

12 hours ago, pipeliner42 said:

Black market oil is how Boko Haram and ISIS make their $$$$! Pop open a pipeline and fill your boots up

   

   Yes, but who is buying this oil ?

Could U,S oil companies be buying it very cheaply and then secretly selling off as their own ?

   The USA is the worlds largest oil producer

 

[William Osborne]

2 hours ago, DDBKK said:

A flurry of office based roles in the middle east and Europe have been posted this past week which raised an eyebrow in the positive sense. Still no bites but it's definitely picking up.

 

Quiet a few agencies post non-existent jobs or jobs that have been filled.... as well as 3-4 agencies putting in bids for same positions...

 

Middle east is write-off for most western expats these days as most projects use 3rd tier engineering /construction companies... even the western established engineering companies have to go top heavy with TCN engineers to stay competitive...... 

 

Personally, i don't think there's much positives for next couple years unless you have good set of skills/experience to bring to a project...

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by William Osborne

[DDBKK]

I've personally known 6 guys to get a start back in the middle east this year. The entire middle east a right off? That's a pretty bold sweeping statement.

 

Yes agencies post fake ads and also post real ones. It's the way it's always been. Business as usual from that point of view.

 

However considering there were very few postings in the several months leading up to the end of the year and now several cropping up, I prefer to look at the glass as being half full. These are mostly construction related roles and my position is one of the first in and last out.

Edited January 15, 2017 by DDBKK

[CGW]

On 1/14/2017 at 4:04 PM, sanemax said:

   

   Yes, but who is buying this oil ?

Could U,S oil companies be buying it very cheaply and then secretly selling off as their own ?

   The USA is the worlds largest oil producer

 

The US isn't the largest producer, Saudi knocked them off the top spot late last year, have to bear in mind also that Saudi oil is "cheap" out of the ground, the shale oil in the US is expensive out of the ground.

[impulse]

22 hours ago, DDBKK said:

I've personally known 6 guys to get a start back in the middle east this year. The entire middle east a right off? That's a pretty bold sweeping statement.

 

There's always openings.  The work still needs to get done.  But nothing like 2009-2014 when 6,000 expat guys got a start there every year.  And hundreds in Thailand.  

 

It's good to remember that the vast majority of O&G people are still working.  But it's pretty disheartening for even good guys who were working on the wrong project at the wrong time.  Heavily influenced by the luck of the draw.  Like a lot of life.

[CGW]

^ To some extent you make your own "luck" though! I know quite a few guys who quit "steady" jobs to chase after the big money! for some it worked out, for others, I'm sure they would be happy to have their "steady" jobs back again!

One of the (many!) problems with working in the oilfields that I came across throughout my career was after the inevitable downturns, it takes bloody years to get back to where you were before, as an example as I was earning the same in 1993 as I was in 1983.

This downturn has been longer and more severe than any in the past 40 years that I have witnessed and will most likely take the longest to climb out off?