It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[Naam]

19 minutes ago, trogers said:

5 hours ago, Naam said:

i am waiting since more than a dozen years that hundreds of thaivisa  wet dream forecasts, e.g. "Thailand's economy soon in deep shàit" and "the Baht will fall into the abyss any time from now" materialise. 

A crisis in the stock market, namely, defaults in debentures, would not lead to a Baht crisis.

Just lots of lenders to public listed companies get burnt and unsold inventory goes to the auction block. Thai banks would get just a sneeze.

please eleborate in what way your comment relates to my posting.

[inThailand]

9 minutes ago, Naam said:

 does that worry you?

Not worried.

But I like property as an investment, here mostly for rental income. But I see little chance to get appreciation or decent rental income for the next 5 years or more. You really have to find a steal to justify a purchase.

Edited October 1, 2017 by inThailand
fat fingers

[trogers]

19 minutes ago, Naam said:

please eleborate in what way your comment relates to my posting.

The Baht would fall into the abyss...

[KittenKong]

5 hours ago, Naam said:

i am waiting since more than a dozen years that hundreds of thaivisa  wet dream forecasts, e.g. "Thailand's economy soon in deep shàit" and "the Baht will fall into the abyss any time from now" materialise. 

 

Just because it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean that it wont. Bitcoin has also not yet crashed.

 

Personally I think that Thailand's economy is very odd, and appears to run thanks to a large amount of credit and an extremely poor underclass that survives on alcohol and belief. The sustainability of this is questionable. Tourism is also a major part of the economy, and there is something unusual about the very high level of general prices here.

The fact that the Baht is treated as some sort of pariah by the global currency trading system also makes me wonder.

[Destiny1990]

I would say lots of  real estate outside Bangkok is lower priced then nearby other asian countries but yes there is an general oversupply looming but if u correctly search u can find good value for money properties in Thailand. Shifting good deals from bad deals is how to approach it waiting for a crash for ten years and then still buy the wrong unit how pathetic is that?.

[cheeryble]

1 hour ago, KittenKong said:

 

Just because it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean that it wont. Bitcoin has also not yet crashed.

 

Personally I think that Thailand's economy is very odd, and appears to run thanks to a large amount of credit and an extremely poor underclass that survives on alcohol and belief. The sustainability of this is questionable. Tourism is also a major part of the economy, and there is something unusual about the very high level of general prices here.

The fact that the Baht is treated as some sort of pariah by the global currency trading system also makes me wonder.

 

Tight bank controls (linked by someone in an earlier post), a baht unaffected by Trump and Brexit, and a tourism industry that is booming despite a military govt. Seems pretty resilient.

 

Pariah currency? Send some my way.

Like a poster recently said......common sense says you gotta have a good portion of your assets in the currency you spend most of.

 

Check out this remarkable pie chart.

Much as I don't like Charlie Chang shouting in my ear when I'm shopping, this portends positive economic change. 1300 million Chinese a mere hop away, and it's just starting. BTW a Chinese lady overpaid for a single older condo room next door to a friend by about 20-25%. Go figure.

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2017 by cheeryble

[Naam]

1 hour ago, KittenKong said:

Just because it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean that it wont.

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, cheeryble said:

Like a poster recently said......common sense says you gotta have a good portion of your assets in the currency you spend most of.

 

If I thought that I would be here forever that might be worth considering. But I regard my tenure in Thailand as flimsy, as does the Thai government. The idea of bringing a large proportion of my assets to a county in which I have to ask permission to remain every year, and which has a very unstable and illiquid property market, does not appeal to me. So I'll settle for well under 10%, including my condo and car and other possessions, and spending money for a couple of years.

 

 

1 hour ago, cheeryble said:

Check out this remarkable pie chart.

Much as I don't like Charlie Chang shouting in my ear when I'm shopping, this portends positive economic change. 1300 million Chinese a mere hop away, and it's just starting. BTW a Chinese lady overpaid for a single older condo room next door to a friend by about 20-25%. Go figure.

 

I dont think that the Chinese can be considered a good example of sensible investors. They dont make very good tourists either. Five years ago those 28% Chinese tourists were Russians, and where are they now?

 

Edited October 1, 2017 by KittenKong

[hugh mckee]

39 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

If I thought that I would be here forever that might be worth considering. But I regard my tenure in Thailand as flimsy, as does the Thai government. The idea of bringing a large proportion of my assets to a county in which I have to ask permission to remain every year, and which has a very unstable and illiquid property market, does not appeal to me. So I'll settle for well under 10%, including my condo and car and other possessions, and spending money for a couple of years.

 

 

 

 

 

for most foreigners looking for sunnier climes, a life in the sun depends on gaining permission from the government and from my search I'd say Thailand is more accomodating than most in this respect, The Thai government regard your tenure as flimsy? have they actually told you this?....I think not, I'm sure you can live in many other foreign lands and your tenure will be even more "flimsy"

 

you can have a condo and a car and it equates to less than 10% of your assets, good for you but what if it's not possible to be in this fortunate position? it does not make a less wealthy person wrong if he wants this and chooses this, there will be guys have this and it's 0.1% of there assets others it will be 50% of their wealth, they all want life to be comfortable whilst in Thailand, they all share this in common even if their assets differ greatly, we all have to sow our seed accordingly.

Edited October 1, 2017 by hugh mckee

[cheeryble]

1 hour ago, KittenKong said:

Five years ago those 28% Chinese tourists were Russians, and where are they now?

 

 

Yeah you have a point about Russia KK.

Having said that the reason the Ruskies aint coming......that oil tanked (no pun intended)......means i save a few thousand at the pump each month and more folk everywhere can afford homes abroad.

 

Much as we'd miss you if you feel so apprehensive about Thailand it may be better for your psyche to find somewhere more suitable?

Edited October 1, 2017 by cheeryble

[funandsuninbangkok]

Record number of condos under construction 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Real_Estate/30326306

 

What could go wrong ?

[hugh mckee]

27 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Record number of condos under construction 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Real_Estate/30326306

 

What could go wrong ?

yes the question mark is appropriate from you as you have absoluely no clue what could go wrong or what could go right?

for that matter, you've been waiting years for your "crash" and people with way more knowledge than you can't predict

such things.............yet we're supposed to read this from you, a guy who claimed sansiri made a profit only because they

raised maintenance fees for condo owners, you proved then beyond any shadow of a doubt that you cannot be taken seriously and that your posts are out of desperation from a guy who is totally clueless on the subject he posts about.

Edited October 1, 2017 by hugh mckee

[chrisandsu]

Maybe we could look at it this way .... Condos are built so poorly , rubbish tradesmen , poor quality materials that they can afford to sell half the condos and still miraculously pull in a profit ? Does anybody know the profit margins ?

[Senechal]

18 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

 

this forum is just full of guys who badmouth Thailand, why don't you guys just go back home if thailand is such

a bad place,

 

 

 

I don't know of a soul here who hates Thailand or who thinks the value of living here doesn't exceed the risks. But the risks of buying are a a different story.

 

Like many others here, I have lived in Thailand for many years. I speak Thai well and have many Thai friends. I've also experienced the prevalence of scams, the shadiness of the municipal records systems, the relative lack of quality control in the building process, the work ethic of local labor, the bias against westerners in the legal system, the complete shitshow of juristic condo boards,  the well documented issues with fee collections, the high prevalence of corruption (literally everywhere), the volatility of the marketplace and the difficulty of getting reliable unbiased news when it comes to the economy or individual markets.

 

I've seen things here that I think many newcomers wouldn't believe. I have personally sat in a conference room in Bangkok with my own legal team a few years back -- only to discover (by a chance conversation)  that my own lawyers had been bribed by the other party. Has that happened to you in your home country? I'm pretty sure the answer is "no". 

 

(I have dozens more stories like that)

 

It sounds to me you don't really understand how exposed you are. Or why the best policy for living in Thailand is to enjoy life here but keep financial exposures to a bare minimum.

 

Or ...maybe you've done the math, and you think your exponential upside adequately reflects your downside. In which case, more power to you.

 

But I think it's absurd to say that this forum is full of guys who just "badmouth Thailand". Some of us have graduated from the school of hard knocks. Have you?

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2017 by Senechal

[cheeryble]

9 minutes ago, Senechal said:

 

 

I've seen things here that I think many newcomers wouldn't believe. I have personally sat in a conference room in Bangkok with my own legal team a few years back -- only to discover (by a chance conversation)  that my own lawyers had been bribed by the other party.

 

Could you tell us this story in full? 

Sounds like it would compensate for many things...

[hugh mckee]

graduated from the school of hard knocks?.....yes there is many on here who have not got a good thing to say about Thailand or it's people, if past experiences in this foreign land entitles you to bad mouth Thailand to the level that goes on? I can't comment,

to expect the same treatment as a foreigner in a 3rd world country as you do in your own country I'd say was naive but I admit to being naive about some of the things people talk about on here.

 

as a "rich farang" in the eyes of Thai people I expect and would be surprised if they did not try and "take me to the cleaners", I accept this is the price I must pay to live in their country and leave my winters behind at home, of course I must pay for this and expect things to be completely different from what they are back home and know I have to have my wits about me having visited thailand many many times, I knew all this before I decided i was going to buy a condo, I imagine the guys on here complaining about Thailand had a fair idea too but still they will complain loudly and make bad comparisons with their own country.....what did you expect?

Edited October 1, 2017 by hugh mckee

[cheeryble]

.

Edited October 1, 2017 by cheeryble

[cheeryble]

.whoops

Edited October 1, 2017 by cheeryble

[hugh mckee]

ok for my peace of mind I'd better stop reading this forum, was feeling good about finally buying my holiday home in the sun but so many really bad things on here to read that makes me wish I hadn't and chose tenerife or cyprus instead, thing is I've been to them all and much prefer Thailand, everywhere in the world has it's good and bad points but if you read this forum you mostly only get to read the bad stuff, probably written by guys who've grown tired and bitter of thailand.

 

on one final note from me though, all these many many condos you speak of, way too many you say of course, at least 49% of these condos get bought by a foreigner just like me, some even have to pretend they're a company just to get one, that's an awful lot of people and according to this forum, every last one of them is an idiot, that's a lot of idiots....and who said they're idiots? a handful of bitter keyboard experts on here, impatiently waiting and waiting and waiting for thailand's property market to crash!

Edited October 1, 2017 by hugh mckee

[funandsuninbangkok]

5 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

yes the question mark is appropriate from you as you have absoluely no clue what could go wrong or what could go right?

for that matter, you've been waiting years for your "crash" and people with way more knowledge than you can't predict

such things.............yet we're supposed to read this from you, a guy who claimed sansiri made a profit only because they

raised maintenance fees for condo owners, you proved then beyond any shadow of a doubt that you cannot be taken seriously and that your posts are out of desperation from a guy who is totally clueless on the subject he posts about.

Hey Hugh

 

is this your condo?

 

 

 

 

[funandsuninbangkok]

5 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

yes the question mark is appropriate from you as you have absoluely no clue what could go wrong or what could go right?

for that matter, you've been waiting years for your "crash" and people with way more knowledge than you can't predict

such things.............yet we're supposed to read this from you, a guy who claimed sansiri made a profit only because they

raised maintenance fees for condo owners, you proved then beyond any shadow of a doubt that you cannot be taken seriously and that your posts are out of desperation from a guy who is totally clueless on the subject he posts about.

Or maybe you bought this one ?

 

 

 

[hugh mckee]

which condo did you buy funandsun?  of course none and are fiercely jealous of anyone who can and does

 

so what thailand has some crooks, you could get similar news reports from every single country in the world.

 

and for your information, I watched my condo building being built for one year before taking the plunge, spoke to the developer several times, from an another country there's only so much due dilligance you can do, just because you can produce 2 news articles where people have been conned means absoluely nothing to someone with any sense, to you funandsun who has little sense these news articles get you excited and mean the world.

 

funandsun your a complete idiot, you already posted that sansiri's profits are only because they overcharge

maintenance fees to condo owners, now you think that a couple of bad news reports means every Condo purchase in thailand is the same...as i said your a complete idiot.

 

talk about generalising, this is what you wrote earlier today about Thai men, you do in fact have a very small brain.

 

"Poor ones are dumb as rocks rich ones are spoiled brat lazy murders"

Edited October 1, 2017 by hugh mckee

[inThailand]

5 hours ago, Senechal said:

 

 

I don't know of a soul here who hates Thailand or who thinks the value of living here doesn't exceed the risks. But the risks of buying are a a different story.

 

Like many others here, I have lived in Thailand for many years. I speak Thai well and have many Thai friends. I've also experienced the prevalence of scams, the shadiness of the municipal records systems, the relative lack of quality control in the building process, the work ethic of local labor, the bias against westerners in the legal system, the complete shitshow of juristic condo boards,  the well documented issues with fee collections, the high prevalence of corruption (literally everywhere), the volatility of the marketplace and the difficulty of getting reliable unbiased news when it comes to the economy or individual markets.

 

I've seen things here that I think many newcomers wouldn't believe. I have personally sat in a conference room in Bangkok with my own legal team a few years back -- only to discover (by a chance conversation)  that my own lawyers had been bribed by the other party. Has that happened to you in your home country? I'm pretty sure the answer is "no". 

 

(I have dozens more stories like that)

 

It sounds to me you don't really understand how exposed you are. Or why the best policy for living in Thailand is to enjoy life here but keep financial exposures to a bare minimum.

 

Or ...maybe you've done the math, and you think your exponential upside adequately reflects your downside. In which case, more power to you.

 

But I think it's absurd to say that this forum is full of guys who just "badmouth Thailand". Some of us have graduated from the school of hard knocks. Have you?

 

 

 

And every year its more of a buyers market then a sellers. Getting out for cost or appreciation is a real problem. Thank goodness the holding costs are low.

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

ok for my peace of mind I'd better stop reading this forum, was feeling good about finally buying my holiday home in the sun but so many really bad things on here to read that makes me wish I hadn't and chose tenerife or cyprus instead, thing is I've been to them all and much prefer Thailand, everywhere in the world has it's good and bad points but if you read this forum you mostly only get to read the bad stuff, probably written by guys who've grown tired and bitter of thailand.

 

on one final note from me though, all these many many condos you speak of, way too many you say of course, at least 49% of these condos get bought by a foreigner just like me, some even have to pretend they're a company just to get one, that's an awful lot of people and according to this forum, every last one of them is an idiot, that's a lot of idiots....and who said they're idiots? a handful of bitter keyboard experts on here, impatiently waiting and waiting and waiting for thailand's property market to crash!

 

Sound like you are the one who are bitter that you settled down in Thailand, the rest of us love it here. We just have a healthy interest in real-estate and like to share information about that interest in forums like this.

"at least 49% of these condos get bought by a foreigner just like me", this just show how well and truly you are out of touch with the Thai real-estate market. The 49% ceiling is not an issue in Bangkok. Not a single building even remotely reach this level of foreign ownership. The Bangkok condo market, an that is really what we are discussing here, is Thai dominated.

 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 9/28/2017 at 4:29 PM, hugh mckee said:

I've no doubt Trogers is a smart guy........if you actually asked him is there any certainty of a crash in Thailand property?

his answer would have to be....I don't know, I am not sure or similar.......he is only speculating on one possible outcome and using his knowledge to predict an as of yet not to materialise event....or am I wrong and you can answer with confidence?

 

Trogers, you're a smart guy, tell us what you believe is going to happen with Thai property in the next few years and we can see in the future by reading on here how accurate you actually were.

 

 it's all speculation and as for hype expatworker, there is plenty of hype on here on this topic, all negative of course, I'll stick to facts and figures and not rely on holywood and movies or guys on here with their own agenda as for "learning something here", as you advise expatworker, not the smartest thing to believe faceless posters on an internet forum who consistently contradict the Bangkok Post or similar publications because these faceless internet posters actually know better............really?

 

expatworker as smart as you think Trogers is, he doesn't know what the future holds for Thailand's property market.

 

 

 

 

 

Hey, Huckleberry McGrumpy, please at lease quote my name right.

[hugh mckee]

hey expatworker, the thread it titled,

It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

 

not as you say all about Bangkok, got another thing wrong?...you'll be used to that I imagine

[KittenKong]

9 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

and for your information, I watched my condo building being built for one year before taking the plunge, spoke to the developer several times, from an another country there's only so much due dilligance you can do, just because you can produce 2 news articles where people have been conned means absoluely nothing to someone with any sense,

 

There are far more than two examples of property scams in Thailand. It is more common here than in any county I have ever lived in.

[Senechal]

10 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

 if you read this forum you mostly only get to read the bad stuff, probably written by guys who've grown tired and bitter of thailand.

 

 

Most everyone here loves living in Thailand, Hugh. 

 

[inThailand]

26 minutes ago, Senechal said:

 

Most everyone here loves living in Thailand, Hugh. 

 

H sounds like a typical remorse buyer here. Only after laying out money for a property did he realize he should have done his market research and due diligence. Now needs to put lipstick on the pig and get a new sucker to buy it.

[trogers]

8 minutes ago, inThailand said:

H sounds like a typical remorse buyer here. Only after laying out money for a property did he realize he should have done his market research and due diligence. Now needs to put lipstick on the pig and get a new sucker to buy it.

Some people are unsure of their move to purchase and seek assurance from such forums.

 

Alas, to come across such posts that give sleepless nights.

 

I bought, with a clear purpose and timing. And when it's time to sell, I would. But all considerations in an investment perspective. No sleepless nights.