It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[midas]

2 hours ago, InMyShadow said:

Absolutely miniscule in the big picture. Literally a granul of sand in a desert.

Millions of condo's successfully built.
I bought 2 off the plan no worries 12 years ago when they were peanuts and now just around the corner at Nana bts the Q condo is rising fast at 1 million USA dollars entry level up to 4.6 million USA dollars.

Had I stayed a renter no way could I afford a new condo today.. Sadly the renting fence sitters waiting for the baht to implode and the bubble to burst are doomed to renting for life

 

Sorry you are right because it's so easy to forget that economic laws that apply to the rest of the world somehow don't apply in Thailand

[InMyShadow]

I thought I saw the same signing frenzy in that last video clip of Al Jazeera... and then they lived happily after...

I'm ecstatic my signing frenzy was back in 2005

 

If not I probably would have lost a good chunk in the 2008 global stock market crash like Oh so many expats did. Or lost it in dead rental money like so many expats are or priced myself out of the market like so many have.

 

Life is good [emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

 

[InMyShadow]

  Sorry you are right because it's so easy to forget that economic laws that apply to the rest of the world somehow don't apply in Thailand:giggle: 

 

Midas.. Strang name for a renter, brother the whole of Asia is booming in the real estate sector. Australia is hitting record pricing as well. Thailand is also hitting record prices along with Cambodia, Laos Myanmar, Vietnam

 

I suggest you buy the book, economics for dummies.

 

Giggle

 

 

 

 

 

[trogers]

29 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

I'm ecstatic my signing frenzy was back in 2005

 

If not I probably would have lost a good chunk in the 2008 global stock market crash like Oh so many expats did. Or lost it in dead rental money like so many expats are or priced myself out of the market like so many have.

 

Life is good

 

You may be one of the buyer of the projects that I was employed as a consultant during 2003-2007. That was the period of the first wave of development after the 1997 financial crisis. Good timing.

 

The problem being highlighted is a decade later with today's prices being multifolds of those in the first wave. Gross rental yields for shoebox units are now only 3-4% pa, and below 3% for those in the tens of millions, if they can secure tenants.

 

The next news that would appear before 2020 would be the big jump in litigation against owners of condo units for non-payment of common fees. I expect such an event from the numerous units bought during those signing frenzy that are left vacant and facing notices for mortgage repayments.

[midas]

19 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

Midas.. Strang name for a renter, brother the whole of Asia is booming in the real estate sector. Australia is hitting record pricing as well. Thailand is also hitting record prices along with Cambodia, Laos Myanmar, Vietnam

 

I suggest you buy the book, economics for dummies.

 

Giggle

 

 

 

 

 

 

" the whole of Asia is booming in the real estate sector. "

 

Is that so? Then  do you think the journalists who wrote these recent articles were smoking something? ( Actually I am more convinced that it is you that is smoking something)

 

1. '" Malaysia Property market bubble set to burst, says think tank "

 

 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/20/property-market-bubble-set-to-burst-says-think-tank/

 

2.  " Saigon housing market slows as insiders warn of crash "

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/markets/saigon-housing-market-slows-as-insiders-warn-of-crash-3587722.html

 

3.  " Is The Phnom Penh Property Market Headed For a Massive Crash? "

 

https://aecnewstoday.com/2017/is-the-phnom-penh-property-market-headed-for-a-massive-crash/

 

4." Why the investment outlook for Singapore property markets may be grim "

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/26/why-the-investment-outlook-for-singapore-property-markets-may-be-grim.html

 

5. " After building boom, South Korea girds for housing glut "

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-housing-glut/after-building-boom-south-korea-girds-for-housing-glut-idUSKCN1130X3

 

[InMyShadow]

3 to 4 %? That is certainly not the case in our condo. Perhaps your quoting an average across Thailand but you can't compare returns in Chiang rai to prime bts locations in bangkok, again you only need to see the Q condo at Nana with its millions of dollars price tag to see where the market is heading

 

Regarding litigation most of those condos bought so many years ago where owners could not afford common area fees because they lived overseas would have already been turned over .. Even at a loss but turned over.

 

 

 

 

[InMyShadow]

 " the whole of Asia is booming in the real estate sector. "  

Is that so? Then  do you think the journalists who wrote these recent articles were smoking something? ( Actually I am more convinced that it is you that is smoking something)

 

1. '" Malaysia Property market bubble set to burst, says think tank "

 

 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/20/property-market-bubble-set-to-burst-says-think-tank/

 

2.  " Saigon housing market slows as insiders warn of crash "

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/markets/saigon-housing-market-slows-as-insiders-warn-of-crash-3587722.html

 

3.  " Is The Phnom Penh Property Market Headed For a Massive Crash? "

 

https://aecnewstoday.com/2017/is-the-phnom-penh-property-market-headed-for-a-massive-crash/

 

4." Why the investment outlook for Singapore property markets may be grim "

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/26/why-the-investment-outlook-for-singapore-property-markets-may-be-grim.html

 

5. " After building boom, South Korea girds for housing glut "

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-housing-glut/after-building-boom-south-korea-girds-for-housing-glut-idUSKCN1130X3

 

 

 

Crystal Ball gazing sunshine. As there are bulls and bears you can pull just as many positive links.  Is that it?

 

Look go try and buy a new condo around Asoke bts 80 plus sqm listed in the last few months, high floor for under 10 mill baht.

 

Don't send me out dated links with starting " from prices" facing the car park please

 

My suggestion still stands... Economics for dummies.

 

 

Edit

Sorry after reading your profile posts you rent out in the sticks so ignore my Asoke post

 

 

[midas]

5 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

Crystal Ball gazing sunshine. As there are bulls and bears you can pull just as many positive links.

 

Is that it?

 

Look go try and buy a new condo around Asoke bts 80 plus sqm listed in the last few months, high floor for under 10 mill baht.

 

Don't send me out dated links with starting " from prices" facing the car park please

 

My suggestion still stands... Economics for dummies.

 

 

Now you just trolling

 

[InMyShadow]

 
Now you just trolling
 

I apologize. Read the edited part of my post above. Nobody expects you to fly into bangkok from up country [emoji4]

[Naam]

1 hour ago, midas said:

 

" the whole of Asia is booming in the real estate sector. "

 

Is that so? Then  do you think the journalists who wrote these recent articles were smoking something? ( Actually I am more convinced that it is you that is smoking something)

 

1. '" Malaysia Property market bubble set to burst, says think tank "

 

 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/20/property-market-bubble-set-to-burst-says-think-tank/

 

2.  " Saigon housing market slows as insiders warn of crash "

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/markets/saigon-housing-market-slows-as-insiders-warn-of-crash-3587722.html

 

3.  " Is The Phnom Penh Property Market Headed For a Massive Crash? "

 

https://aecnewstoday.com/2017/is-the-phnom-penh-property-market-headed-for-a-massive-crash/

 

4." Why the investment outlook for Singapore property markets may be grim "

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/26/why-the-investment-outlook-for-singapore-property-markets-may-be-grim.html

 

5. " After building boom, South Korea girds for housing glut "

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-housing-glut/after-building-boom-south-korea-girds-for-housing-glut-idUSKCN1130X3

 

1....says think tank

2....insiders warn

3....Headed For a Massive Crash? 

4....may be grim

5....girds for

 

[trogers]

13 minutes ago, Naam said:

1....says think tank

2....insiders warn

3....Headed For a Massive Crash? 

4....may be grim

5....girds for

 

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/08/20/property-market-bubble-set-to-burst-says-think-tank/

 

"Ferlito said the number of unsold properties was a sign that the property bubble may have reached its final stage and that the property market was close to crashing".

 

I hold the same view for Thailand.

 

The ancient advice is "When you are trapped in a pit, stop digging"!

Edited October 13, 2017 by trogers

[InMyShadow]

@Trogers

 

 

Same writer has offloaded his properties and looking to buy back in.

 

Same scam that plagues the stock market. Gurus screaming sell..

 

Again why anybody puts all their faith in Crystal Ball gazing is beyond me.

 

The market is always right. Crystal balls are nearly always wrong but hey its free to gaze [emoji4]

 

 

[trogers]

4 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

@Trogers

 

 

Same writer has offloaded his properties and looking to buy back in.

 

Same scam that plagues the stock market. Gurus screaming sell..

 

Again why anybody puts all their faith in Crystal Ball gazing is beyond me.

 

The market is always right. Crystal balls are nearly always wrong but hey its free to gaze

 

 

There is only one property that I am in the process of offloading, and it's in HK, not Thailand.

 

No plans to offload any properties in Thailand as I am enjoy tenancy of 5-7 years with them.

[InMyShadow]

There is only one property that I am in the process of offloading, and it's in HK, not Thailand.
 
No plans to offload any properties in Thailand as I am enjoy tenancy of 5-7 years with them.

I don't understand. You are far better off selling them now regardless and buying then back or similar at a 50% discount if your bubble burst theory happens
You could actually buy twice as many condos than you currently own.

Curious about your logic and I know it's not about being scared of losing your tenants, the wealth creation would more than make up for that.

[trogers]

51 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

I don't understand. You are far better off selling them now regardless and buying then back or similar at a 50% discount if your bubble burst theory happens
You could actually buy twice as many condos than you currently own.

Curious about your logic and I know it's not about being scared of losing your tenants, the wealth creation would more than make up for that.

It's not straight maths. My units in Thailand are bubble proofed, bought in 2007-8.

 

I am not at all interested in those new units with their small sqm and high buildings, even should prices halved. I am interested in long term good rental yields with appreciating land value where I have 4-5 sq wah share of the land.

Edited October 13, 2017 by trogers

[InMyShadow]

It's not straight maths. My units in Thailand are bubble proofed bought in 2007-8.
 
I am not at all interested in those new units with their small sqm even should prices halved.

In a burst bubble it's not just the small condos that will get smashed.

You could pick and choose.
Your current condos in bangkok can't be bubble proof. You will get more for them today than after the bubble burst.

I'm not following you. Sorry

[trogers]

34 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

In a burst bubble it's not just the small condos that will get smashed.

You could pick and choose.
Your current condos in bangkok can't be bubble proof. You will get more for them today than after the bubble burst.

I'm not following you. Sorry
 

Not for old builts (before the year 2000) because most of them would not be in distress.

 

An example - 121 sqm in Phrom Phong bought at Bt50k a sqm with 5 sq wah share of land.

 

If Lumpini 24 meets a bubble burst, their 50+ sqm 2-bedroom units might be going for Bt150k instead of the present Bt280k, with 1-2 sq wah share of land. Still not of worth to mine.

[InMyShadow]

Not for old builts (before the year 2000) because most of them would not be in distress.
 
An example - 121 sqm in Phrom Phong bought at Bt50k a sqm with 5 sq wah share of land.
 
If Lumpini 24 meets a bubble burst, their 50+ sqm 2-bedroom units might be going for Bt150k instead of the present Bt280k, with 1-2 sq wah share of land. Still not of worth to mine.

That's nearly a 50% drop. How is that not worth it especially since you are strongly pro bubble

Enlighten me further. I'm not being difficult, I just can't see why your holding on?

[trogers]

11 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

That's nearly a 50% drop. How is that not worth it especially since you are strongly pro bubble

Enlighten me further. I'm not being difficult, I just can't see why your holding on?

Compare rental yields, and compare property prices after deducting share of land value.

 

Don't forget, 50+sqm 2-bedroom units have 1000 more competition pulling down rents.

Edited October 13, 2017 by trogers

[InMyShadow]

Compare rental yields, and compare property prices after deducting share of land value.
 
Don't forget, 50+sqm 2-bedroom units have 1000 more competition pulling down rents.

Still doesn't add up. Property bubbles are brutal. Sub prime crashed prices up to 90%

Your taking a massive risk based on your back of the envelope calculations. Especially since you are 100% pro bubble.

It's simple math, sell today and buy back up to 90% off. Forget rental yields, that's not even worth mentioning in a crash.

You sound like you may own 20 to 50 mill In condos.

Your math especially vs risk does not stack up

Won't pressure you anymore. Good luck with predictions of a crash and choosing to hold on.. Bizarre but it's an anonymous forum [emoji5]

[ExpatOilWorker]

53 minutes ago, trogers said:

Not for old builts (before the year 2000) because most of them would not be in distress.

 

An example - 121 sqm in Phrom Phong bought at Bt50k a sqm with 5 sq wah share of land.

 

If Lumpini 24 meets a bubble burst, their 50+ sqm 2-bedroom units might be going for Bt150k instead of the present Bt280k, with 1-2 sq wah share of land. Still not of worth to mine.

I actually follow TRoger's logic, but for the reason that the older (Pre-1997) buildings haven't really appreciated much in price since 2007/08.

Around 2002/03 there were lots of auctions in Bangkok where 20-50 units in each building were sold of to the highest bidder in one afternoon. Prices were generally 25-40 Kbaht/m2. During the next 5 years resale prices for the same or similar buildings plateaued around 50-65 Kbaht/m2 and have stayed there ever since.

New developments on the other hand have been promoted by developers at ever increasing prices and have now reached 200-400 kbaht/m2.

If there is a correction in the Thai real-estate market, it is a reasonable assumption that the newer higher priced condos will take the biggest hair cut, while the units older units Troger hold, might drop marginally, but still maintain about the same rental income.

Edited October 13, 2017 by ExpatOilWorker

[trogers]

15 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

Still doesn't add up. Property bubbles are brutal. Sub prime crashed prices up to 90%

Your taking a massive risk based on your back of the envelope calculations. Especially since you are 100% pro bubble.

It's simple math, sell today and buy back up to 90% off. Forget rental yields, that's not even worth mentioning in a crash.

You sound like you may own 20 to 50 mill In condos.

Your math especially vs risk does not stack up

Won't pressure you anymore. Good luck with predictions of a crash and choosing to hold on.. Bizarre but it's an anonymous forum
 

Should those units in my building drop prices by 50%, I would acquire them...??

 

I don't foresee prices fall more than 30% even in new projects in good locations. The sub-prime hit whole villages in unfavorable suburbs badly, but not the properties in downtown of major cities.

[InMyShadow]

I actually follow TRoger's logic, but for the reason that the older (Pre-1997) buildings haven't really appreciated much in price since 2007/08.
Around 2002/03 there were lots of actions in Bangkok where 20-50 units in each building were sold of to the highest bidder in one afternoon. Prices were generally 25-40 Kbaht/m2. During the next 5 years resale prices for the same or similar buildings plateaued around 50-65 Kbaht/m2 and have stayed there ever since.
New developments on the other hand have been promoted by developers at ever increasing prices and have now reached 200-400 kbaht/m2.
If there is a correction in the Thai real-estate market, it is a reasonable assumption that the newer higher priced condos will take the biggest hair cut, while the units older units Troger hold, might drop marginally, but still maintain about the same rental income.

Good points. If Roger's bought 3 tiny condos at a total of 3 mill then you are right but he isn't being up front with the amount.

From his posts though and just having sold property in Singapore and Hong Kong you can safely add a few more zeros to his bangkok investments.

The math doesn't add up to cling to them as he is very pro crash. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he is not living in a fan room haha. But you gotta say hundreds of bearish posts as a Land lord.. Well.. You get the picture

It's all good fun on an anonymous forum, just don't take it to seriously [emoji5]

[trogers]

10 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

I actually follow TRoger's logic, but for the reason that the older (Pre-1997) buildings haven't really appreciated much in price since 2007/08.

Around 2002/03 there were lots of auctions in Bangkok where 20-50 units in each building were sold of to the highest bidder in one afternoon. Prices were generally 25-40 Kbaht/m2. During the next 5 years resale prices for the same or similar buildings plateaued around 50-65 Kbaht/m2 and have stayed there ever since.

New developments on the other hand have been promoted by developers at ever increasing prices and have now reached 200-400 kbaht/m2.

If there is a correction in the Thai real-estate market, it is a reasonable assumption that the newer higher priced condos will take the biggest hair cut, while the units older units Troger hold, might drop marginally, but still maintain about the same rental income.

The other factors are, pre-2000 condos are primarily located near to the CBD, and are not shoeboxes.

 

Double the area at half the price or less.

[trogers]

4 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

Good points. If Roger's bought 3 tiny condos at a total of 3 mill then you are right but he isn't being up front with the amount.

From his posts though and just having sold property in Singapore and Hong Kong you can safely add a few more zeros to his bangkok investments.

The math doesn't add up to cling to them as he is very pro crash. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he is not living in a fan room haha. But you gotta say hundreds of bearish posts as a Land lord.. Well.. You get the picture

It's all good fun on an anonymous forum, just don't take it to seriously

Well, Bt6m for 121 sqm and Bt7.4m for 163 sqm, the latter in an auction of the Legal Execution Dept. 

 

Refurbishment cost - Bt10k per sqm.

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 minutes ago, InMyShadow said:

Good points. If Roger's bought 3 tiny condos at a total of 3 mill then you are right but he isn't being up front with the amount.

From his posts though and just having sold property in Singapore and Hong Kong you can safely add a few more zeros to his bangkok investments.

The math doesn't add up to cling to them as he is very pro crash. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he is not living in a fan room haha. But you gotta say hundreds of bearish posts as a Land lord.. Well.. You get the picture

It's all good fun on an anonymous forum, just don't take it to seriously

He actually told you the exact numbers, if you had bothered reading his post:

 

"An example - 121 sqm in Phrom Phong bought at Bt50k a sqm with 5 sq wah share of land"

[trogers]

47 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

I actually follow TRoger's logic, but for the reason that the older (Pre-1997) buildings haven't really appreciated much in price since 2007/08.

Around 2002/03 there were lots of auctions in Bangkok where 20-50 units in each building were sold of to the highest bidder in one afternoon. Prices were generally 25-40 Kbaht/m2. During the next 5 years resale prices for the same or similar buildings plateaued around 50-65 Kbaht/m2 and have stayed there ever since.

New developments on the other hand have been promoted by developers at ever increasing prices and have now reached 200-400 kbaht/m2.

If there is a correction in the Thai real-estate market, it is a reasonable assumption that the newer higher priced condos will take the biggest hair cut, while the units older units Troger hold, might drop marginally, but still maintain about the same rental income.

Not all pre-2000 projects are favourably located (in terms of proximity to the mass transit) and that the owners have not got their acts together to upgrade and update their projects.

 

Even the project that I bought into was only convinced by the leap in rental value of my refurbished units. Thereafter, we obtained majority votes in upgrading the building for 5 consecutive years now.

 

 

[InMyShadow]

Oh dear Mr Roger's . Further research shows hundreds of posts going back years very keen to smash the real estate sector whilst continuing to hold many properties in bangkok?

LOL some people have no shame

I love TV so much BS bit it's entertaining [emoji16]

[InMyShadow]

I don't know who is more embarrassing. The heavily vested bangkok condo owner t Roger's who for years and every post is screaming sell whilst not selling himself or the expat oil worker who backs him

 

Honestly you can't make this stuff up, comedy gold but I love it, please don't let the entertainment stop [emoji4][emoji4][emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

 

 

 

 

[thaifoodruns]

I don't know who is more embarrassing. The heavily vested bangkok condo owner t Roger's who for years and every post is screaming sell whilst not selling himself or the expat oil worker who backs him 

Honestly you can't make this stuff up but I love it, please don't let the entertainment stop [emoji4][emoji4][emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

 

 

 

 

 

Why are you doing this? Give it a rest please....it's Friday night, someone as rich as you surely has many friends and many better things to do.

 

 

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