It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[trogers]

15 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Sansiri buys Pace's shares in the company which is carrying out Nimit Langusan. They then are the shareholders of the company which owns Nimit Langsuan. The project would no doubt be relaunched under Sansiri, but the actual company name that those 300 purchasers have an SPA with will be the original company name, whichever name Pace chose for the development.

 

"Why are holding companies, who are the legal owners of the development, not the one launching their projects?"

 

 PACE launches many projects under its name, same as Sansiri, Ananda, Pruksa, Singh Estates etc etc etc. You, I and every other Somchai with an interest knows these names and their developments. The fact under those names they have many subsidiary companies which they hold developments is completely normal the world over, i presume to mitigate risk of one of them going pear shaped and ensuring it could be sold off, bankrupted etc whilst sparing the mother company. The only people who would even know the names of the subsidiary companies would be those who sign SPA agreements to buy the units. For everyone else they are just Sansiri, Pace, Ananda etc developments.

 

 Boon Rawd Brewery (Singha) has a number of real estate developments in process, they are done under Singha Estates, a subsidiary and separate entity of Boon Rawd Brewery. TCC Group had something like 300 separate companies under TCC doing everything from hospitality, real estate, tin cans, liquor, KFC etc etc etc. All held under separate companies below TCC. Go to any major corporation in the World and you will see the same thing.

What I am trying to convey is that

 

1. A holding company has only a small paid up capital and operates mainly on loans from a parent company.

 

2. The behaviour of businessmen in using the image of the parent company to sell, while setting up structures of limited liabilities, is a deception on the risk of their clients.

 

3.  How much above par value would Sansiri pay for the shares of this holding company, or would a new holding company with Bt1m paid up capital be used to hold this holding company? The risk for clients would change again...

[Jsinbkk]

PACE and Sansiri might pull off a deal but it's going to be hard to price. PACE may decide its better to go bust. 

 

also after this is cleared up, you've got banks, vendors, contractors, and customers  who have deposited different amounts of monies( most have probably stopped payments now) to sort out. 

 

Thailand is terrible at litigation. I see the future. Lots of happy lawyers and loooong delays on his baby. 

 

Rent in Thailand 

 

buy US equities 

[Jsinbkk]

Well I guess if you can't sell them, you grow mushrooms in them! Can't say the Thais aren't creative!

 

http://thespoon.tech/thai-real-estate-developer-sansiri-invests-in-vertical-farming-startup-farmshelf/

 

Of course imagine the shock of the other condo owners when they smell the fertilizer !

[Jsinbkk]

30 + 30 leases illegal.

 

Thousands of Phuket villa "owners" are learning they own nothing.

 

How long will it take for the family members of the Thai lessors to discover they can reclaim the property the stupid foreigners "bought"?

 

 

http://www.duensingkippen.com/thailandpropertylawblog/?p=265

 

 

[robertthebruce]

 

 

So So glad I sold up..... Lucky for sure...

 

 

 

 

[trogers]

2 hours ago, robertthebruce said:

 

 

So So glad I sold up..... Lucky for sure...

 

 

 

 

So, whose lap did you throw the hot potato on?

[trogers]

2 hours ago, Jsinbkk said:

30 + 30 leases illegal.

 

Thousands of Phuket villa "owners" are learning they own nothing.

 

How long will it take for the family members of the Thai lessors to discover they can reclaim the property the stupid foreigners "bought"?

 

 

http://www.duensingkippen.com/thailandpropertylawblog/?p=265

 

 

I don't think these foreigners are stupid. Just gambling that the authorities would never take action against them.

 

Next, landed properties using nominees...

[chrisandsu]

7 minutes ago, trogers said:

So, whose lap did you throw the hot potato on?

At a guess he was lucky to find an even bigger idiot ? we have all been there 

[cheeryble]

4 hours ago, Jsinbkk said:

30 + 30 leases illegal.

 

Thousands of Phuket villa "owners" are learning they own nothing.

 

How long will it take for the family members of the Thai lessors to discover they can reclaim the property the stupid foreigners "bought"?

 

 

http://www.duensingkippen.com/thailandpropertylawblog/?p=265

 

 

Actually if it is shown by a foreigner that the spirit of the law was subverted (so very sorry I just learned I'm not allowed to use a nominee, but I was persuaded it was legal....... actually i paid for it, here's the proof) the sale of a property can be reversed and the funds reverted to the foreigner.....I believe at present day value, the sale within 6 or 12 months. I know personally of a case where this happened successfully though it took some time and obviously hassle.

[Jsinbkk]

35 minutes ago, cheeryble said:

Actually if it is shown by a foreigner that the spirit of the law was subverted (so very sorry I just learned I'm not allowed to use a nominee, but I was persuaded it was legal....... actually i paid for it, here's the proof) the sale of a property can be reversed and the funds reverted to the foreigner.....I believe at present day value, the sale within 6 or 12 months. I know personally of a case where this happened successfully though it took some time and obviously hassle.

Well sure if the seller will give you back your money but if it was me, I say get stuffed. Then your stuck living in a house you don't own, illegal, in a foreign country.

 

And then what happens if the seller sells in again legally to a Thai family member, they show up and tell you to get out?  

 

How you going to stay put in a house you don't own?

[cheeryble]

8 minutes ago, Jsinbkk said:

Well sure if the seller will give you back your money but if it was me, I say get stuffed. Then your stuck living in a house you don't own, illegal, in a foreign country.

 

And then what happens if the seller sells in again legally to a Thai family member, they show up and tell you to get out?  

 

How you going to stay put in a house you don't own?

The money doesn't come from the seller.

The sale is in breach of the law, but it is likely now years later.

Therefore......as long as you prove the case that the nominee was merely a nominee....the nominee may no longer own it.

The caseI know of involved a foreigner who had several rai with more than one dwelling.

On splitting up with his missus she would not accept when he offered her one of the houses and some of the land.

Hr therefore went to law and after a lot of hassle recovered the lot. Not sure of the details of him selling it on though of course as it is a home some might prefer to use circuitous means to stay put.

[cheeryble]

Out of interest and as I'm sometimes driving that way home i took another look at Supalai the big sold out condo on the Superhwy in CM.

As I've said before there's a fair sprinkling of lights on.......not so many but there never are even in good older buildings.

What struck me tonight was that the lights from the rooms were not warm white but the old fashioned blue/white fluorescent colour. 

The building was obviously finished with these lights.

I'm amazed.

[robertthebruce]

5 hours ago, trogers said:

So, whose lap did you throw the hot potato on?

 

 

Totally lost..., don’t understand what you are on about ???

 

 

[trogers]

9 hours ago, robertthebruce said:

 

 

So So glad I sold up..... Lucky for sure...

 

 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, trogers said:

So, whose lap did you throw the hot potato on?

 

1 hour ago, robertthebruce said:

 

 

Totally lost..., don’t understand what you are on about ???

 

 

Your expression of being glad and lucky. Like holding a hot potato and trying to pass it on to some other people...

 

Who did you sell it to?

[trogers]

A thought just pop into my mind.

 

There are many here who treat the advice of the website like Samuiforsale as a Bible.

 

I don't recall the island of Samui going big in condo developments. They are mainly selling villas and houses. Is that why the Condo Act is being misconstrued, to lead foreigners to procure these villas and houses?

[steveromagnino]

Regarding the Sansiri PACE deal, as far as I know, NIMIT like many developments has a loan attached to it. Often banks want a ring fenced firm wholly owned by the developer which has the express purpose of doing that development, not only for tax purpose and so on, but also so for example, the operations of Dean & DeLuka (which CITI is the lender) would not be able to take down NIMIT (which SBC is lending on).  It is both for the protection of the lender, the developer and even the buyer.  Also, if something weird happens, such as an act of god, insurance claim etc, each project is ring fenced from the others....but of course, there is the aspect of the buyer being possibly screwed over if the subsidiary goes bust while the parent is fine -in the case of wholly owned publically listed firms this is not so common.  What is more relevant for buyers of NIMIT is the reverse situation, parent goes bust (let's say due to Dean and deluka) taking down the subsidiary with it.  

 

In the case of NIMIT, I do not know if NIMIT sits within a holding firm, MahaNakhon does because the exit strategy for the 3 pieces (hotel, retail, residences) is different, as already seen when PACE sold shares of the hotel and retail to Apollo, whereas the residences obviously is another component that needs to end up with the buyers.

What Sansiri are planning to do (and the queue to buy NIMIT is quite long) is to buy the project either the project or the holding company including the project only, all the sales contracts, the commitments to the buyers, the commitment to the designers and main contractor, and pay a price for the land, construction, EIA permit, construction so far, money received so far, which is about say 20% of the sales value (guessing).  They will then finish the project, collect the other 80% from the customers (another 15% in installments, 65% on transfer), pay the rest of the construction costs, any final defect mgt, etc, and the owners will get their condos.  In Sansiri's case they also want to be handling resales, value engineer the development where they can, maybe even try to buy back units from skeptical owners and resale, NIMIT is a pretty special location after all.

TRogers maybe I misunderstand, but the vast majority of owners I know are HOPING that Sansiri will buy it, they are looking at an immediate bump to their property price if Sansiri buys, because it becomes a Sansiri project.  The idea of owners suing someone, and under what basis, I have no idea how someone could claim to be a wronged party except for a delay, which would mean suing PACE, who since they have no money (which is why they are selling) would be completely counterproductive as it would slow it down even more and possibly kill the Sansiri deal.  Anyhow, a delay is already laid out in the sale and purchase agreement and probably has not right to claim against.  There probably is a right to assignment. On the other hand, if Sansiri fails to deliver to the quality and standard...then you can sue....and that's a worthwhile thing to do.  If another developer buys NIMIT, then maybe it won't be nearly as prestigious, I know that they are not in the bidding round, but let's take a developer with a less (ahem) stellar reputation, that would be something the owners might really not like...but again, they can't do much about it unless it says in their contract that THEY SIGNED, that they have some rights.  I doubt they do. 

This has happened before, with Origin and Proud for park 24.  With Raimon Land and Kudu I think the firm was.  There are more. 

So how does Sansiri value NIMIT? Sansiri will analyse it simply, same as origin did with Park 24 basically by looking at the money they get in (the 65%), the money they still have to pay out (cost to complete), discount by their WACC, estimate their required margin, and do a simple cashflow analysis and an estimate of the hidden troubles plus the benefits of value engineering, there were at least 5, maybe 10 firms who bid on NIMIT and Sansiri were the chosen ones, they all value the same way.  I think Sansiri also want to buy units at MHNK, but that one is more simple, same approach though, of course those ones are almost complete.  Any loans on the property I would imagine PACE has to repay using the cash raised from the sale, and then if Sansiri decides to borrow again, they do in their own name against the collateral (a project and the underlying land) which is listed in the disclaimer by law for each development.

Benefit for PACE is getting money now to pay SCB and creditors, keep running Dean and DeLuca I guess.  Benefit for Sansiri is acquiring a go project, already passed EIA, in a prime location, where sales and marketing is already done, much lower risk.  Only question is what price to pay, that's why they sign an LOI or MOU, do due diligence, and then finalize the offer, knowing if they don't want NIMIT, someone else, one of their competitors will take it.

No idea how this in any way indicates Thai real estate bubble is bursting, given that NIMIT is almost sold out.  Its a cashflow problem from a developer who has got in the food business, and the food business has taken them down.  Nimit is almost sold out and a totally viable project, hence why other developers want to buy it.

[Jsinbkk]

Oh my

 

http://thairesidents.com/property/warning-property-bubble-bursting-2019/

 

 

 

[trogers]

5 hours ago, Jsinbkk said:

Oh my

 

http://thairesidents.com/property/warning-property-bubble-bursting-2019/

 

 

 

Sixty percent are speculators, waiting to resell or rent out.

 

Assuming 80% of new developments comprises mainly of studios and 30+ sqm 1-bed, we can say that there are over 50,000 units in the hands of speculators. Good luck to them.

 

It's too late for recent buyers of such units to back out. But there is still time for potential buyers to stop their foolishness.

 

 

[Jsinbkk]

1 hour ago, trogers said:

Sixty percent are speculators, waiting to resell or rent out.

 

Assuming 80% of new developments comprises mainly of studios and 30+ sqm 1-bed, we can say that there are over 50,000 units in the hands of speculators. Good luck to them.

 

It's too late for recent buyers of such units to back out. But there is still time for potential buyers to stop their foolishness.

 

 

 

Sansiri is smarter than most developers in Bangkok. Check out thier idea

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Corporate/30331148

 

crazy but my guess is most of these dumps will be unfinished and turned into urban mushroom farms. 

 

If you live in one hold your nose!

[ExpatOilWorker]

Could also start to happen here, where returns are actually lower than 5%.

 

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21732481-new-regulations-and-cooler-market-are-causing-landlords-sell-up-britains-buy-let-boom

 

Research from Savills suggests that, for the first time, landlords may be selling up in large numbers.

 

It was good while it lasted, but the golden age of the amateur landlord may be over.

[hugh mckee]

On 12/11/2017 at 3:57 PM, trogers said:

Sixty percent are speculators, waiting to resell or rent out.

 

Assuming 80% of new developments comprises mainly of studios and 30+ sqm 1-bed, we can say that there are over 50,000 units in the hands of speculators. Good luck to them.

 

It's too late for recent buyers of such units to back out. But there is still time for potential buyers to stop their foolishness.

 

 

maybe my reading is not so good but the report says that there COULD be a problem in 2019, this is still 2017,

this topic says it's official and already happening but now any report that it COULD happen in over a years time

is enough to get trogers and the like to get over excited and claim that after all they are correct in their desires/dreams

that there is a crash in the Thai propery market.

 

if they wait long enough then of course they'll be proved right, this topic is already very old and as of now

there's been no crash, eventually of course this can and will happen but will they fall back to the way below the prices

of when this topic was actually started??? it will have to for these jealous, green with envy guys who don't

have the balls, the money or both to buy a property in Thailand to be proved right.

 

and even if it does happen the guys who did have the balls or the money will still own a condo, the envious posters

on here will maybe be able to haggle with their landlord and get a few baht off their rent, good luck with that, I'd still

prefer to live in my own place and pay rent to no one and have a place I can call home, for me that is something

I am willing to pay for, each to their own of course.

 

my condo will be empty for probably 7 months of the year, it's mostly for the UK winters, it's my second home,

of course I don't rent out my first home and I won't rent out my second home either, you money obsessed guys

who post on here have to realise that not everyone is as money obsessed as some of you obviously are, there is

more to life than money and life is short, to own a holiday home in a sunny country is something most Northern

Europeans would have if they could, I can and I have, the jealous on here should accept there is many like me as literally

millions of foreigners have bought (not rented) property in Thailand!

[trogers]

11 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

maybe my reading is not so good but the report says that there COULD be a problem in 2019, this is still 2017,

this topic says it's official and already happening but now any report that it COULD happen in over a years time

is enough to get trogers and the like to get over excited and claim that after all they are correct in their desires/dreams

that there is a crash in the Thai propery market.

 

if they wait long enough then of course they'll be proved right, this topic is already very old and as of now

there's been no crash, eventually of course this can and will happen but will they fall back to the way below the prices

of when this topic was actually started??? it will have to for these jealous, green with envy guys who don't

have the balls, the money or both to buy a property in Thailand to be proved right.

 

and even if it does happen the guys who did have the balls or the money will still own a condo, the envious posters

on here will maybe be able to haggle with their landlord and get a few baht off their rent, good luck with that, I'd still

prefer to live in my own place and pay rent to no one and have a place I can call home, for me that is something

I am willing to pay for, each to their own of course.

 

my condo will be empty for probably 7 months of the year, it's mostly for the UK winters, it's my second home,

of course I don't rent out my first home and I won't rent out my second home either, you money obsessed guys

who post on here have to realise that not everyone is as money obsessed as some of you obviously are, there is

more to life than money and life is short, to own a holiday home in a sunny country is something most Northern

Europeans would have if they could, I can and I have, the jealous on here should accept there is many like me as literally

millions of foreigners have bought (not rented) property in Thailand!

Depends on where you are. Already occurred 5-6 years ago in places like Pattaya and Phuket. Chiang Mai followed a couple of years ago.

 

Bangkok has a larger condo market for the locals, expending outwards from the CBD. It's this sector that is predicted to  peak in 2019.

 

The locations in the Bangkok condo market with much foreign buyers has already peaked last year.

[hugh mckee]

10 minutes ago, trogers said:

And what selfish interest do you hide in this forum?

 

I am happy to say I have extended advice to some people in this forum here through PMs and they did not come back to me with regrets.

yes you are right trogers, I have an extremely selfish interest, after many holidays and good times in Thailand I choose this country to buy a holiday home and improve my life, not to rent, to buy as want to live in my own home in a nice sunny climate in a country I love to visit, I am selfishly trying to improve my life, selfishly spending my money on me, selfishly having more fun, selfishly spending my hard earned savings accrued over many years from hard and stressful employment which soon I selfishly will stop doing so as I can spend more time in Thailand in my own home 150 yards from the beach which I selfishly choose to buy.

 

I read this forum as i wish to educate myself on Thailand, if I want to learn about business and making money? I'll read something else

[trogers]

1 minute ago, hugh mckee said:

yes you are right trogers, I have an extremely selfish interest, after many holidays and good times in Thailand I choose this country to buy a holiday home and improve my life, not to rent, to buy as want to live in my own home in a nice sunny climate in a country I love to visit, I am selfishly trying to improve my life, selfishly spending my money on me, selfishly having more fun, selfishly spending my hard earned savings accrued over many years from hard and stressful employment which soon I selfishly will stop doing so as I can spend more time in Thailand in my own home 150 yards from the beach which I selfishly choose to buy.

 

I read this forum as i wish to educate myself on Thailand, if I want to learn about business, I'll read something else

Loads of sections to read about Thailand and its culture and happenings.

 

This section is about Real Estate, particularly on investment, the costs, and the buying and selling.

 

I wonder why you would even want to dwell in this section as you have already bought a happy place to past your happy time, with no particular interest to buy or sell any more real estate.

[hugh mckee]

3 minutes ago, trogers said:

So what valuable investment advice would you be contributing to the followers of this forum section? That money is not important at all, and they should not be obsessed with it?

 

Or perhaps, just rub tree barks?

I am in no position to give any one investment advice, how other people invest their money is none of my business but I thought this was a real estate topic for people buying real estate and spending part of their lives in Thailand and how to go about it ,not about know it all's dishing out investment advice and advising you not to buy property in Thailand, this section is about buying property in Thailand trogers, not about you advising people not to buy property in Thailand, your comments totally contradict what this section is about and belong in some money making forum

 

Real Estate, housing, house and land ownership

Real estate, housing, buying a condominium in Thailand. Ask all your practical and legal questions here

[hugh mckee]

4 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Well yes people on steroids tend to get easily aggressive even about minor differences in opinions they can just flip.

So then i was thinking maybe this is the case with u and u better lower ur steroid dosage. Trogers can post what he likes and so can u but his posts makes much more sense then the stuff that u write.

oh I see destiny, you're talking through experience, I can't comment as never used steroids but if you like to use them I don't care, none of my business, I'd rather talk about the joys and benefits of living and owning property in thailand and what's involved in the process, that's what this section is about unfortunately it's been hijacked by guys obsessed with money and investments and that's not at all what this section is about, it's about owning real estate or land in Thailand

 

Real Estate, housing, house and land ownership

Real estate, housing, buying a condominium in Thailand. Ask all your practical and legal questions here

[hugh mckee]

14 minutes ago, trogers said:

In investment, there is buy and sell, not just buy. There is a timing to get in, and a timing to get out. Or else, why would you be selling those bank stocks almost immediately after an IPO?

bank stocks conversation have got no place in this section as has bitcoin no place either, it's not a money forum, it's all about thailand

 

you've hijacked this section for your own personal agenda, you've no place to be advising people not to buy to save them from losing money, who do you think you are? advising people not to buy real estate in Thailand in a section about buying real estate in Thailand, do you think that because you've made so many posts you have your own rules? that you are special? well I can tell you that you are just the same as me and anyone else on here, your number of posts are irrelevant.

 

if it was a section on buying a swimming pool, would you be right to be advising people not to buy a swimming pool?

if it was a section on buying a tv in thailand, would you be right to be advising them not to buy a tv?

if it was a section on buying an eight bedroomed house in thailand would you be right to advise them not to buy one?

 

get my point????????????????

 

this section of this forum is not about investments, maybe you should start up another forum?

 

as a recent property buyer in thailand I come on to this section expecting to read about such things and other people who are doing what I've just done as that is what this section is all about after all? instead i have to read know it all's trying to save me money by telling me that I shouldn't be buying and what a fool I or anyone is who buys real estate in Thailand.

[trogers]

1 minute ago, hugh mckee said:

bank stocks conversation have got no place in this section as has bitcoin no place either, it's not a money forum, it's all about thailand

 

you've hijacked this section for your own personal agenda, you've no place to be advising people not to buy to save them from losing money, who do you think you are? advising people not to buy real estate in Thailand in a section about buying real estate

in Thailand, do you think that because you've made so many posts you have your own rules? that you are special? well I can tell you that you are just the same as me and anyone else on here, your number of posts are irrelevant.

 

if it was a section on buying a swimming pool, would you be right to be advising people not to buy a swimming pool?

if it was a section on buying a tv in thailand, would you be right to be advising them not to buy a tv?

if it was a section on buying an eight bedroomed house in thailand would you be right to advise them not to buy one?

 

get my point????????????????

 

this section of this forum is not about investments, maybe you should start up another forum?

I offer advice. They decide. I don't point a gun between their eyes.

 

Bitcoins or bank stocks are alternative form of investment or speculation. Principles of investment apply.

 

You sound unhappy, or rather, furious that people in this forum are giving advice.

 

Note, I am not saying don't buy anything. I am saying, look at the fundamentals, in particular, the rental yield.

 

A few days ago, I even suggested hunting for bargains in old condos that can give reasonable yields. My only comment against buying, since last year, that there is no capital gain at the peak of a property cycle, when developers still cannot sell off their unsold units years after construction completion.

[trogers]

3 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

Real Estate, housing, house and land ownership

Real estate, housing, buying a condominium in Thailand. Ask all your practical and legal questions here.

 

after your 11,500 posts trogers I'm sure you can read

Ask all your practical questions here, regarding buying a condo.

 

And are questions on investing in a condo practical questions?

[trogers]

7 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

you have no right to be advising people not to buy, someone may think with your 11500 posts that you know what you talking about when in fact there is not one person on the planet who knows what way thai property is going to go.

 

this section is about buying in thailand and the process of buying in thailand, keep your money making speculations to an appropriate forum, not hijacking this one for your own selfish agenda

Sorry. People who buy condo to invest also fall in this category of the forum. Or did you spot a more appropriate section for them in Thaivisa?

 

Perhaps you can petition the owners of this forum to award badges to only those you deemed having the rights to advice.