It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[inThailand]

Just now, chrisandsu said:

Hahahah it's not that the credit standards are too high , it's that  most Thais are swimming in debt or have no proof of income (can't show under the table money) would you lend a thai money thinking you would get it back ?

So true!

 

They are good at taking the loan but not so good at paying it back, hence why non performing loans are at a high.

[anto]

1 hour ago, chrisandsu said:

Hahahah it's not that the credit standards are too high , it's that  most Thais are swimming in debt or have no proof of income (can't show under the table money) would you lend a thai money thinking you would get it back ?

 

1 hour ago, janclaes47 said:

 

I had a Thai doctor working at one of the major hospitals wanting to buy my house last month.

 

She couldn't get a mortgage from any bank.

Depending on how much your house is going for ? i might be surprised .

[trogers]

1 hour ago, janclaes47 said:

 

I had a Thai doctor working at one of the major hospitals wanting to buy my house last month.

 

She couldn't get a mortgage from any bank.

Her problem maybe that she has acted as a guarantor on another loan...

[ExpatOilWorker]

5 hours ago, Senechal said:

 

Got a link?

 

 

Can't post links for the capitals newspaper. It is a 60 page inlay to the newspaper.

You can have my copy if you are in Bangkok.

[Senechal]

Another gem from a few weeks back:

 

Thailand's Bad Loan Ratio is Worse than China's

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/thailand-s-worse-than-china-bad-loan-ratio-seen-nearing-peak

 

Although the article assures us that said problem will "peak" at the end of 2017.

 

Which is funny because we were already told the problem would improve "within 6 months" back in February.

 

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/thai-banks-bad-loans-to-decline-as-economy-improves 

 

'Guess that didn't work out...

[trogers]

47 minutes ago, Senechal said:

Another gem from a few weeks back:

 

Thailand's Bad Loan Ratio is Worse than China's

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/thailand-s-worse-than-china-bad-loan-ratio-seen-nearing-peak

 

Although the article assures us that said problem will "peak" at the end of 2017.

 

Which is funny because we were already told the problem would improve "within 6 months" back in February.

 

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/thai-banks-bad-loans-to-decline-as-economy-improves 

 

'Guess that didn't work out...

Would be interesting to know how much of that growing NPL is from the real estate sector...

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, trogers said:

Would be interesting to know how much of that growing NPL is from the real estate sector...

Although the below are 2011-15 numbers, it looks like cars loans have the highest NPL ratio.

 

(https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialInstitutions/Publications/FSR_Doc/FSR2015e.pdf)

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 hours ago, Senechal said:

Another gem from a few weeks back:

 

Thailand's Bad Loan Ratio is Worse than China's

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/thailand-s-worse-than-china-bad-loan-ratio-seen-nearing-peak

 

Although the article assures us that said problem will "peak" at the end of 2017.

 

Which is funny because we were already told the problem would improve "within 6 months" back in February.

 

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/thai-banks-bad-loans-to-decline-as-economy-improves 

 

'Guess that didn't work out...

 

NPL + Special Mentioned loans is 6.6% of all loans, which is 13.2 trillion baht (May 2017).

 

Good or bad, I am not sure, but not as bad as Italiy's 21.4% NPL.

"create €331bn-worth of “deteriorated” loans, including €197bn of non-performing loans (NPLs), by June of last year (see chart). At 21.4% of Italy’s total gross loans"

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21719815-deep-roots-italys-bad-debt-problems-life-and-times-italian

[trogers]

5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

NPL + Special Mentioned loans is 6.6% of all loans, which is 13.2 trillion baht (May 2017).

 

Good or bad, I am not sure, but not as bad as Italiy's 21.4% NPL.

"create €331bn-worth of “deteriorated” loans, including €197bn of non-performing loans (NPLs), by June of last year (see chart). At 21.4% of Italy’s total gross loans"

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21719815-deep-roots-italys-bad-debt-problems-life-and-times-italian

I would not believe Thai banks to be as reckless as Italian banks due to the holdings of leading families vs paid CEOs.

 

That said, I expect two sources here to exhibit higher risk: banks that are linked to property arms and banks used for political lending.

[trogers]

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Although the below are 2011-15 numbers, it looks like cars loans have the highest NPL ratio.

 

(https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialInstitutions/Publications/FSR_Doc/FSR2015e.pdf)

Proves that in the Thai mindset car ownership precedes home ownership.

[inThailand]

15 minutes ago, trogers said:

Proves that in the Thai mindset car ownership precedes home ownership.

A classic trait of the uneducated poor.

[ExpatOilWorker]

17 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

NPL + Special Mentioned loans is 6.6% of all loans, which is 13.2 trillion baht (May 2017).

 

Good or bad, I am not sure, but not as bad as Italiy's 21.4% NPL.

"create €331bn-worth of “deteriorated” loans, including €197bn of non-performing loans (NPLs), by June of last year (see chart). At 21.4% of Italy’s total gross loans"

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21719815-deep-roots-italys-bad-debt-problems-life-and-times-italian

Looks like I did an unfair comparison. Italy's total private debt is only around 50% of GDP, while Thailand's is 151.3%, so bad loans in Thailand and Italy are actually on par as percentage of GDP. Scary!

[ExpatOilWorker]

The number of new loans are falling and NPL and SM loans are up. Dangerous mix for banks

[trogers]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The number of new loans are falling and NPL and SM loans are up. Dangerous mix for banks

Don't worry. The country's bank to the rescue.

 

State-Owned Bank Offers Lowest Home Loan Interest Rates

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, trogers said:

Don't worry. The country's bank to the rescue.

 

State-Owned Bank Offers Lowest Home Loan Interest Rates

"The move was done so the state-run bank is better able to meet its lending target of THB178 billion for 2017". 

Right, we must keep the target at all and any cost. 

 

Good to see the government is coming to the rescue. The revenue  department plan to borrow 400+ billion baht to plug the shortfall in tax revenue this fiscal year. Seems like everybody is hooked in cheap loans.

Edited August 21, 2017 by ExpatOilWorker

[funandsuninbangkok]

Bangkok post yesterday

 

developers offering 30% off list prices now to "bulk buyers" to get rid of inventory

 

also, developers offering credit to buyers for three years 3,000 baht a month per million. That is .3% 

 

dont sound like thinks are going too well. 

 

Might be time to start making some offers. Naa, wait till next poop / fan interaction. Then a cash de should be good for 50% off. 

Edited August 22, 2017 by funandsuninbangkok

[trogers]

6 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Bangkok post yesterday

 

developers offering 30% off list prices now to "bulk buyers" to get rid of inventory

 

also, developers offering credit to buyers for three years 3,000 baht a month per million. That is .3% 

 

dont sound like thinks are going too well. 

 

Might be time to start making some offers. Naa, wait till next poop / fan interaction. Then a cash de should be good for 50% off. 

Flippers would be crying...

[scubascuba3]

What's the chances the foreign/Thai quoters being changed for condos? I.e foreigners can buy much greater %, Its the only thing that will save the condo market.

 

This 2 tier system doesn't seem to work anyway

 

 

[trogers]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

What's the chances the foreign/Thai quoters being changed for condos? I.e foreigners can buy much greater %, Its the only thing that will save the condo market.

 

This 2 tier system doesn't seem to work anyway

 

 

This land ownership quota of 49% Foreign is to do with National Security. Unlikely to be changed for economic reasons.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 8/22/2017 at 11:44 AM, funandsuninbangkok said:

Bangkok post yesterday

 

developers offering 30% off list prices now to "bulk buyers" to get rid of inventory

 

also, developers offering credit to buyers for three years 3,000 baht a month per million. That is .3% 

 

dont sound like thinks are going too well. 

 

Might be time to start making some offers. Naa, wait till next poop / fan interaction. Then a cash de should be good for 50% off. 

0.3% a month or 3.6% a year, which is low, but banks can still make a profit at this level.

 

"In April, Sansiri launched a promotion for ready-to-transfer residential units totalling 48 projects nationwide. Through teaming up with a bank, the developer offered a fixed interest rate and a fixed monthly instalment of 3,000 baht per 1 million baht in credit for a three-year period."

[scubascuba3]

This land ownership quota of 49% Foreign is to do with National Security. Unlikely to be changed for economic reasons.

I would say for economic reasons they need to change it. Not saying they will though

[chrisandsu]

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

On 8/21/2017 at 11:32 PM, trogers said:

This land ownership quota of 49% Foreign is to do with National Security. Unlikely to be changed for economic reasons.

I would say for economic reasons they need to change it. Not saying they will though

You telling me it's not worked ? They have managed to sell a boat load of houses and condos to foreigners that can't legally own them! I'd say that's quite some fete they have pulled off . 

[KittenKong]

On 22/08/2017 at 1:32 PM, trogers said:

This land ownership quota of 49% Foreign is to do with National Security. Unlikely to be changed for economic reasons.

 

During previous financial crises the quota was indeed increased for condos. That was entirely for economic reasons. No reason at all why that should not happen again, if they think they need to. They could of course also reduce the quota, even retrospectively, unlikely as that may be.

Edited August 24, 2017 by KittenKong

[scubascuba3]

You telling me it's not worked ? They have managed to sell a boat load of houses and condos to foreigners that can't legally own them! I'd say that's quite some fete they have pulled off . 

Its worked in the past but have you been following the condo market now? People not buying off plan anymore, Thais not getting mortgages, condos not selling, oversupply. Yes apart from that all is good. 

I guess my point is if they increased the foreign quota it would be win win. Thais can sell easier. Perhaps a shot in the arm

 

 

[Propellerhead]

In my simple lizard brain, when central banks raise rates, prices go down. If the foreign quota is raised, supply will go up and prices will go down. Add to this mix political uncertainty and I don't see how this ends well.


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[trogers]

1 hour ago, KittenKong said:

 

During previous financial crises the quota was indeed increased for condos. That was entirely for economic reasons. No reason at all why that should not happen again, if they think they need to. They could of course also reduce the quota, even retrospectively, unlikely as that may be.

The limit to retain control of land by Thais have been reached.

[KittenKong]

24 minutes ago, trogers said:

The limit to retain control of land by Thais have been reached.

 

I have no idea what that means.

[trogers]

18 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

I have no idea what that means.

The Thai ownership quota of 51% of condo projects ensures the Thais retain control of the land.

 

Less than this, they might as well allow 100% foreign ownership.

[scubascuba3]

In my simple lizard brain, when central banks raise rates, prices go down. If the foreign quota is raised, supply will go up and prices will go down. Add to this mix political uncertainty and I don't see how this ends well.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Increasing foreign quota will allow Thais to sell their condos to foreigners, prices will increase for thai condos and reduce for foreign condos but more importantly the market gets more liquid

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, trogers said:

The Thai ownership quota of 51% of condo projects ensures the Thais retain control of the land.

 

Less than this, they might as well allow 100% foreign ownership.

 

As I mentioned, the quota has already been increased to well above 49% during a financial crisis. So I see no reason why it should not happen again if the need arises.