Scotland's Sturgeon says: I can win an independence vote

[evadgib]

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642?reveal_response=yes#response-threshold

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, evadgib said:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642?reveal_response=yes#response-threshold

From the site:

 

"We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely."

 

It sounds like John Innes, the man who created the petition, is under the illusion that he speaks for all Scots, rather than the democratically elected government. As Holyrood voted 69/59 in favour of indyref2, the will of the people has already been made clear. Typical Yoon 'do as you are told' mentality. We will need to suffer much more of this in these coming pre-independence days.

[evadgib]

My gut feeling is that SNP will realise they're better off/won't win after Brexit has been finalised. 

 

The earliest May could agree to such folly is 2021/after all elections. Alternately she could have called their bluff prior to firing the starting gun by agreeing but only allowing the same timeframe as the rest of us had for the gen election-35 days!

 

Just my 2p

 

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, evadgib said:

My gut feeling is that SNP will realise they're better off/won't win after Brexit has been finalised. 

 

The earliest May could agree to such folly is 2021/after all elections. Alternately she could have called their bluff prior to firing the starting gun by agreeing but only allowing the same timeframe as the rest of us had for the gen election-35 days!

 

Just my 2p

 

 

I appreciate that you, as a supporter of Brexit, are expecting the best possible outcome from the disengagement. I think that it is not a stretch to say that there are similarities in perspective between supporters of Scottish independence and Brexit - we both see significant, insurmountable flaws in the status quo, so desire a radical change for the better.

 

If Brexit is a roaring success and the UK is transformed into a workers' paradise, possibly we will see the demise of the independence movement by the time indyref2 is called, but the one elephant in the room is that the Tories show no sign of changing their political tack, and Labour shows no sign of stopping its in fighting. We might see the best Brexit in the world, but if Westminster doesn't change for the better, the fundamental problems will still remain - and will remain rich pickings for the independence movement to exploit.

[sandyf]

Looks like NS is going through the motions, has already said she will consider the next steps after Easter.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-referendum-theresa-may-request-a7659201.html

 

I really don't see the problem, they have the referendum and the result is to stay in the UK, as everyone thinks it would be, problem solved. I would doubt very much whether a referendum campaign would create any more problems than those that are in the wind already.

[nontabury]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Looks like NS is going through the motions, has already said she will consider the next steps after Easter.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-referendum-theresa-may-request-a7659201.html

 

I really don't see the problem, they have the referendum and the result is to stay in the UK, as everyone thinks it would be, problem solved. I would doubt very much whether a referendum campaign would create any more problems than those that are in the wind already.

Except they would't know what terms they would be voting on,as regards to the outcome of Britex. Common sense says waite until after we finally leave,and then let the Scottish people decide.

 If they go to the polls NOW. what would be the feelings of the Scottish electorate if they voted for seperation,and then later realized that the terns for Britex were in fact favorable. And that they'd been sold a porky by the SNP. Do you honestly think the rest of the U.K. would accept Scotland back into the Union.

Alternativily if they voted to remain in the U.K. And then realise that after Britex  the terms were unfavorable, would that mean another referendum?

 

 

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Except they would't know what terms they would be voting on,as regards to the outcome of Britex. Common sense says waite until after we finally leave,and then let the Scottish people decide.

 If they go to the polls NOW. what would be the feelings of the Scottish electorate if they voted for seperation,and then later realized that the terns for Britex were in fact favorable. And that they'd been sold a porky by the SNP. Do you honestly think the rest of the U.K. would accept Scotland back into the Union.

Alternativily if they voted to remain in the U.K. And then realise that after Britex  the terms were unfavorable, would that mean another referendum?

 

 

 

The terms of Brexit were not known when the referendum was held - and they still aren't known now. Your common sense says we should hold another Brexit referendum once the deal has been hammered out.

 

The Scottish people have already made it clear that they want to remain in Europe. Now you are suggesting that we put aside our wishes and allow ourselves to be forced into a situation that (a) we have overwhelmingly rejected; (b) that nobody can predict, all in the hope that it may not actually be too bad? Sorry, but we don't trust you (the collective you, of course - nothing personal).

[7by7]

7 hours ago, sandyf said:

Fortunately opinions do not count for much, she is free to proceed as she sees fit.

Sturgeon could hold her referendum, and if she won and the UK government refused to implement the result then she could ask for a judicial review; but the likelihood of her winning that is next to zero.

 

As I said; a judicial review wont decide if the decision of a public body, including Parliament, was right or wrong, only if that decision was made in a lawful way or not. That's not an opinion; it's a fact; Judicial review

Quote

It is not really concerned with the conclusions of that process and whether those were ‘right’, as long as the right procedures have been followed. The court will not substitute what it thinks is the ‘correct’ decision.

This may mean that the public body will be able to make the same decision again, so long as it does so in a lawful way.

 As in 2014, for an independence referendum in Scotland to be legally binding on the UK government, the Scottish parliament first needs the consent of the UK Parliament.

 

From the Stephen Tierney article I linked to above:

Quote

Can the Scottish Parliament hold a referendum without the consent of Westminster?

Whether the Scottish Parliament can unilaterally hold an ‘advisory’ referendum on this issue has never been finally resolved. But it seems clear that the Scottish Government does not propose to test this issue; instead it will seek the consent of Westminster to a so-called s. 30 Order, thereby ensuring that the UK Government will have to accept the referendum result......

 

Will the UK Parliament grant such an order?

It is of course under no legal obligation to do so......

You can, of course, say that is just his opinion. But, as he is Professor of Constitutional Theory and Director of the Edinburgh Centre for Constitutional Law at the University of Edinburgh, I think his opinion carries more weight than yours or mine!

[7by7]

10 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The terms of Brexit were not known when the referendum was held - and they still aren't known now. Your common sense says we should hold another Brexit referendum once the deal has been hammered out.

The UK voted for Brexit (unfortunately) and it is now up to the government to achieve the best deal they can; that's what governments are for.

 

If another Indyref2 happens and the Scottish people vote Yes then the terms of any post referendum deal between an independent Scotland and the remaining UK would not be known until the end of the post result negotiations. Would you then want another referendum in Scotland to see if those terms were acceptable to the Scottish people?

 

14 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

The Scottish people have already made it clear that they want to remain in Europe.

No; the Scottish people, or rather the majority of them, made it clear in 2016 that they wanted the UK to remain in Europe.

 

They also indicated in 2014 that they wanted Scotland to remain in the UK.

 

That the result of the 2016 referendum moved the goalposts is a legitimate argument.

 

However, to be able to make an informed decision as to whether to stay in the UK outside the EU or become independent and seek to join the EU the Scottish people need all the facts; including the terms of the post Brexit deal the UK and EU reach.

 

Why does Sturgeon not want them to have those facts? Why do you support her in this? What are she and you afraid of?

 

 

[lungbing]

If the Scots really want independence, they should fight to have the whole of the UK allowed to vote,  they'd soon get the vote they wanted.  The problem would be if Scotland voted to stay, and the rest of us decided to let them go.

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, nontabury said:

Except they would't know what terms they would be voting on,as regards to the outcome of Britex. Common sense says waite until after we finally leave,and then let the Scottish people decide.

 If they go to the polls NOW. what would be the feelings of the Scottish electorate if they voted for seperation,and then later realized that the terns for Britex were in fact favorable. And that they'd been sold a porky by the SNP. Do you honestly think the rest of the U.K. would accept Scotland back into the Union.

Alternativily if they voted to remain in the U.K. And then realise that after Britex  the terms were unfavorable, would that mean another referendum?

 

 

 

In 2014 they voted on a 650 page white paper, so on the basis the referendum is held in the same manner they would know exactly what they were voting for, unlike the referendum held by the UK government.

The alternative being to remain with the UK government which to date has a dismal track record in its relationship with Scotland.

[RuamRudy]

Now I don't want to suggest that this man doesn't know his onions. After all, with his partner George Soros, he co-founded the Quantum Fund.

However I have confidence in the resilience and resourcefulness of the English that their country will not simply stagnate and languish in the doldrums post independence.

 

   

 

[7by7]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

On ‎31‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 10:56 AM, nontabury said:

<snip>

Except they would't know what terms they would be voting on,as regards to the outcome of Britex. Common sense says waite until after we finally leave,and then let the Scottish people decide.

<snip>

In 2014 they voted on a 650 page white paper, so on the basis the referendum is held in the same manner they would know exactly what they were voting for,

 

If Indyref2 were held before Brexit had been finalised and the full terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU known, then Scottish voters would not know exactly what they were voting for.

 

As I said earlier

23 hours ago, 7by7 said:

<snip>

to be able to make an informed decision as to whether to stay in the UK outside the EU or become independent and seek to join the EU the Scottish people need all the facts; including the terms of the post Brexit deal the UK and EU reach.

 

Why does Sturgeon not want them to have those facts? Why do you (RuamRudy) support her in this? What are she and you afraid of?

 Do you, like Sturgeon and RuamRudy, not want the Scottish people to have all the facts before they decide?

 

If not, why not?

[citybiker]

I'd be interested in Sturgeon's option if Scotland, like Wales & NI get a shared but fair deal post Brexit....

Any government, irrespective of country of origin is duty bound to ensure all facts are obtained, analysed prior to any kind of referendum, all options should be available to the electorate not just the SNP's personal agenda.

I watched Sturgeon belittle Scottish Labour in Holyrood only a few days ago, Sturgeons arrogance may we'll be her down fall if Brexit secures better than she could think of possibly delivering.


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[RuamRudy]

7 minutes ago, citybiker said:

I'd be interested in Sturgeon's option if Scotland, like Wales & NI get a shared but fair deal post Brexit....

Any government, irrespective of country of origin is duty bound to ensure all facts are obtained, analysed prior to any kind of referendum, all options should be available to the electorate not just the SNP's personal agenda.
 

Was Brexit known at the time of the referendum? Is it known now? Were the Tories 'duty bound to ensure all facts' were available? Does the fact the Brexit was and is a morass of nothing, negate its validity?

 

But you also miss the point about many people's desire for independence. Brexit merely highlights it - the imbalance in power within the UK is the source of the discontent. TM shows no indication of recognising that.

 

13 minutes ago, citybiker said:

I watched Sturgeon belittle Scottish Labour in Holyrood only a few days ago, Sturgeons arrogance may we'll be her down fall if Brexit secures better than she could think of possibly delivering.

Yes, only the SNP in Holyrood engages in political point scoring. Every other party in the country refers to Debrett's for each and every interaction with the opposition.

[citybiker]

Yes, only the SNP in Holyrood engages in political point scoring. Every other party in the country refers to Debrett's for each and every interaction with the opposition.

I certainly do not miss the point of individuals wishing independence, nobody can summarise Brexit as nothing as it's still too early with no facts to support their argument, however a factual credible & strategic plan for the Scottish electorate to analysis and form a conclusion doesn't fill many with confidence the SNP know what they're doing.

Avoiding thread derailment, see how Spain is using Gib as a bargaining tool which will fall on deaf ears despite over 300 years of trying. The voice of 'many' of Scotland isn't the same as the SNP's propaganda argument that the majority are seeking independence which is factually incorrect, yet another flawed argument the SNP need reminding on.


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[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, citybiker said:

 

 

I certainly do not miss the point of individuals wishing independence, nobody can summarise Brexit as nothing as it's still too early with no facts to support their argument, however a factual credible & strategic plan for the Scottish electorate to analysis and form a conclusion doesn't fill many with confidence the SNP know what they're doing.

Avoiding thread derailment, see how Spain is using Gib as a bargaining tool which will fall on deaf ears despite over 300 years of trying. The voice of 'many' of Scotland isn't the same as the SNP's propaganda argument that the majority are seeking independence which is factually incorrect, yet another flawed argument the SNP need reminding on.


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So are you suggesting that you lack confidence in the Brexit outcome? Do you also question the wisdom of holding that referendum with so little basis on which to form a rational opinion?

What aspects of the SNP's strategy gives you cause for concern? The Scottish government published a white paper in 2014 with their proposals for independence. No referendum has yet been agreed this time, but I am confident that when it is called, the white paper will be reprised.

 

The SNP was elected to the Scottish parliament with 48.8% of the vote (regional and constituency), for which they received 64 seats. The other pro-independence party, the Greens, received 4.7% of votes and 6 seats. Combined, the two pro-independence parties achieved a 53.5% of all votes cast. That is a majority in anyone's language.

 

If that wasn't enough, however, it was there in black and white in their election manifesto - Brexit, should it occur, would be considered a material change and be cause to call for a new referendum. That is what half the country voted for.

 

[citybiker]

I'm suggesting I've more confidence in the current UK Government seeking an 'overall' fair pragmatic deal for the whole UK than I have of the SNP own domestic agenda.

I'd certainly hope the previous 2014 white paper would be reprised, thus giving the electorate the raw mean facts, until then the UK Government are quite right & reasonable to delay Sturgeon her referendum call.

Brexit 'is' not should occurring, A50 has been invoked so the official channels of negotiations are ongoing, thus the EU response has been well documented and publicised.

The focus should be UK Brexit & other governmental issues, and achieving the best outcome overall for all parts of the Union for generations to come.


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[evadgib]

This whole scenario is earily reminiscent of Pancho Villa's excursion into New Mexico during WW1. It remains to be seen what external influences might be in play this time around, but Germany and/or Russia cannot be ruled out.

 

Millbank and Vauxhall will presumably be thinking same...

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

If Indyref2 were held before Brexit had been finalised and the full terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU known, then Scottish voters would not know exactly what they were voting for.

 

As I said earlier

 Do you, like Sturgeon and RuamRudy, not want the Scottish people to have all the facts before they decide?

 

If not, why not?

As usual distorted view of the situation. The vote will not really be for independence, it will be a choice of remain in UK or get back to the EU. The outcome of the brexit negotiations is a bit immaterial unless of course there is some chance the UK will remain in the EU. Timing is quite important in respect of trying to manage a potential transition and TM is just trying to frustrate the Scottish parliament.

In voting 'for' the white paper the voters would know what they were voting for, with the option of voting against.

[RuamRudy]

10 hours ago, citybiker said:

I'm suggesting I've more confidence in the current UK Government seeking an 'overall' fair pragmatic deal for the whole UK than I have of the SNP own domestic agenda.

I'd certainly hope the previous 2014 white paper would be reprised, thus giving the electorate the raw mean facts, until then the UK Government are quite right & reasonable to delay Sturgeon her referendum call.

Brexit 'is' not should occurring, A50 has been invoked so the official channels of negotiations are ongoing, thus the EU response has been well documented and publicised.

The focus should be UK Brexit & other governmental issues, and achieving the best outcome overall for all parts of the Union for generations to come.


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It seems that you are open to double standards in your assessment of politics. From start to finish, Brexit had nothing tangible from either side to back up their cases; we went through with it and now we are having it enacted - and still those leading us towards its conclusion have no idea of the end game - yet that is somehow good? The SNP has made crystal clear their perceived end game for Scotland, yet that is somehow bad?

 

That you don't have confidence in the SNP is irrelevant. The white paper exists - Brexit was based on nothing concrete and remains nothing but squabble and bitterness.

 

 

[CharlieK]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Brexit was based on nothing concrete and remains nothing but squabble and bitterness.

If Brexit is nothing but squabble and bitterness, then surely Scottish indiref2 will be the same. Sturgeon is doing what you accuse the government of. She has no idea if the EU would accept Scotland into the EU. She has no idea which currency Scotland would have. She is not being honest with the electorate, and has made a mess of running Scotland.

Edited April 2, 2017 by CharlieK

[RuamRudy]

5 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

Sturgeon is doing what you accuse the government of. She has no idea if the EU would accept Scotland into the EU.

She has the continuously positive feedback of various member states and officials within the EU to provide confidence. In fact, the only suggestion of Scotland being blocked is part of the Yoonie fake news campaign, which began in 2012 and has not stopped yet.

 

7 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

She has no idea which currency Scotland would have.

She has commissioned a panel of experts to investigate all options and report back in August with a proposal.

 

8 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

She is not being honest with the electorate,

In what way?

 

8 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

and has made a mess of running Scotland.

Can you be more specific?

[CharlieK]

19 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

She has the continuously positive feedback of various member states and officials within the EU to provide confidence

Yes because they calculate that maybe it would force the UK to stay in the EU to avoid a breakup of the UK. Just like they say the UK will have to jump through hoops to get a deal.  

[citybiker]

Can you be more specific?

Continuous positive feedback?

So no concrete assurances, just warm words.

The SNP analysis, and their basis of putting forward their EU plan is on positive feedback. Scotland requires all EU member states to agree to Sturgeon's proposal, Spain has already stated it will veto the SG application.

Words fail me.


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[RuamRudy]

10 minutes ago, citybiker said:

 

 

Continuous positive feedback?

So no concrete assurances, just warm words.

The SNP analysis, and their basis of putting forward their EU plan is on positive feedback. Scotland requires all EU member states to agree to Sturgeon's proposal, Spain has already stated it will veto the SG application.

Words fail me.


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I think words do fail you. I was asking the OP to be more specific about his statement that the SNP had 'made a mess of running Scotland'. Your response, like his, offers nothing in the way of backing up that suggestion.

 

As for Spain, well I have been trying to educate people for a long time but it is like talking to a brick wall. Maybe today's Guardian will help you understand that, there also, you are very wrong?

 

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

"Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition.

Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK. "

[evadgib]

Leaving Gibraltar in the EU without compromising its status as a dependant territory would be benefitial to all parties IMO.

 

[citybiker]

I think words do fail you. I was asking the OP to be more specific about his statement that the SNP had 'made a mess of running Scotland'. Your response, like his, offers nothing in the way of backing up that suggestion.
 
As for Spain, well I have been trying to educate people for a long time but it is like talking to a brick wall. Maybe today's Guardian will help you understand that, there also, you are very wrong?
 
Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU
"Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition.
Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK. "

Yes, I was awaiting with amusement for the Guardian article to surface, so Spain changes its mind/softens its approach towards Scotland's EU plan, the cynic in me will pause & make an conclusive summary as Gibraltar is still being used.

UK disintegration not welcome, balanced viewpoint.


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[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

She has the continuously positive feedback of various member states and officials within the EU to provide confidence. In fact, the only suggestion of Scotland being blocked is part of the Yoonie fake news campaign, which began in 2012 and has not stopped yet.

 

She has commissioned a panel of experts to investigate all options and report back in August with a proposal.

 

In what way?

 

Can you be more specific?

 

Sturgeon says their feed back is positive. She also said she could veto Brexit personally and that May confirmed it!

 

She's not exactly unbiased in wanting people to believe that now is she?

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

I think words do fail you. I was asking the OP to be more specific about his statement that the SNP had 'made a mess of running Scotland'. Your response, like his, offers nothing in the way of backing up that suggestion.

 

As for Spain, well I have been trying to educate people for a long time but it is like talking to a brick wall. Maybe today's Guardian will help you understand that, there also, you are very wrong?

 

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

"Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition.

Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK. "

 

Spain, will not veto an attempt  by an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

 

So if Scotland were at some time an independent country, who met the financial criteria explicitly laid down by the EU, agreed to accept the Euro, agree to joining Schengen, and agree to the jurisdiction of the EU law and courts, then Spain has said it would not veto that application.

 

It has not said it will support the remaining of Scotland in the EU as a legacy of UK membership. The EU and EU commission have already made it clear that Scotland will leave when the UK leaves. 

Nor has Spain said it will support an application by an independent Scotland. Just that it won't veto it. A very clever diplomatic statement by the Spanish!

 

But of course Sturgeon will spin it for the faithful to make them think it's can all be done in Tommy Cooper style - "just like that!"