Analysis - Chance of smooth Brexit fades after British election chaos

[bkkcanuck8]

10 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

There is nothing written into the Article that prevents withdrawing it either. 

 

The time limit in 3 applies if no deal has been agreed, the country wishing to leave does not request extension or all member states do not agree to the extension.

 

Point 5 would apply after leaving should a country leave and then wish to apply to join again. Nothing to do with the period during the 2 years negotiations.

 

You cannot imply something, either way, to suit your political preferences. Nothing specifically about a mechanism for withdrawing the notice but equally nothing prohibiting doing just that.

 

So not only those who drafted it, but also those who accepted and passed it my be embarrassed at the incompetence. Or maybe they just all thought would never happen so not worth bothering about? 

 

 

The "time limit" - is the default outcome if no agreement is reached.... 

 

It takes unanimous agreement of all member states to extend it.  If no agreement is made, it comes into force 2 years after article 50 notification (article 50).  Article 50 is in fact the notification to leave (which is why the UK court indicated that parliamentary approval was required - it was changing the rights of UK citizens on execution), the 2 years are a period that is there in an attempt to smooth the exit.  No party can act to change this without unanimous agreement.   Only an agreement (unanimous again) between all states can extend (or or stop) the process.  If there was a 6th point that the notifying party had the ability to change course at any time after executing article 50.... it got lost before being ratified.

 

Of course if there was a 6th point included - you would only end up with all the members playing chicken trying to one-up the other members while trying to get a better deal than others.  It would have been a nightmare.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2017 by bkkcanuck8

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post has been removed. 

[dunroaming]

May now faces her ministers who mainly favour a soft Brexit.  Without her "advisors" I think she will find it hard to hold her ground.  She has brought Gove in to try to fend off a leadership challenge but that may be futile in the coming months.

 

None of us know just what the negotiations will consist of and I suspect that is the same in number ten.  One worry is that part way through the negotiating period May will be ousted and then where will that leave us?  Up the creek without a paddle?  I suspect far worse than that.

[bkkcanuck8]

43 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

May now faces her ministers who mainly favour a soft Brexit.  Without her "advisors" I think she will find it hard to hold her ground.  She has brought Gove in to try to fend off a leadership challenge but that may be futile in the coming months.

 

None of us know just what the negotiations will consist of and I suspect that is the same in number ten.  One worry is that part way through the negotiating period May will be ousted and then where will that leave us?  Up the creek without a paddle?  I suspect far worse than that.

You also have to ask who saved her.... in other words who is she going to have to negotiate with.  The DUP which was in favour of brexit -- but definitely not hard brexit.  Then you have her resurgent wing of Scots.... who are according to what I heard in favour of things that really are impossible to keep without being in the common market (even if without a vote in parliament).  So if she goes hard brexit - she could find her facing an election again.....  making a real mess of things.  She has made her bed, now she has to learn to lie in it.

[dunroaming]

2 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

You also have to ask who saved her.... in other words who is she going to have to negotiate with.  The DUP which was in favour of brexit -- but definitely not hard brexit.  Then you have her resurgent wing of Scots.... who are according to what I heard in favour of things that really are impossible to keep without being in the common market (even if without a vote in parliament).  So if she goes hard brexit - she could find her facing an election again.....  making a real mess of things.  She has made her bed, now she has to learn to lie in it.

Whichever way you look at it Britain will end up worse off due to Brexit.  If May survives until the negotiations are complete then she will surely have to go then.  I suspect she rues the day she threw her hat in the ring to be PM.

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Whichever way you look at it Britain will end up worse off due to Brexit.  If May survives until the negotiations are complete then she will surely have to go then.  I suspect she rues the day she threw her hat in the ring to be PM.

I honestly think she did not call the election to strengthen the negotiation hand, it was to strengthen her hand and give her a 5 year mandate so that when the economy suffers after the change-over to a different economic reality she has a few years where she would be hoping for an improving economy before calling the follow-on election.... She did not really think she would be swatted down like she has leaving her in an almost untenable situation.

[dunroaming]

Theresa May has now delayed the Queen's Speech. First time that has happened!  Reports are mixed but it is felt that the negotiations with the DUP are not as simple as May thought they would be and there is a chance that the contents (pretty thin I think) may be voted down which would trigger a vote of no confidence which in turn with trigger a general election.  So the goat skin is awaiting!

[vogie]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Theresa May has now delayed the Queen's Speech. First time that has happened!  Reports are mixed but it is felt that the negotiations with the DUP are not as simple as May thought they would be and there is a chance that the contents (pretty thin I think) may be voted down which would trigger a vote of no confidence which in turn with trigger a general election.  So the goat skin is awaiting!

She could always rule with a no overall majority?

[brewsterbudgen]

Theresa May has now delayed the Queen's Speech. First time that has happened!  Reports are mixed but it is felt that the negotiations with the DUP are not as simple as May thought they would be and there is a chance that the contents (pretty thin I think) may be voted down which would trigger a vote of no confidence which in turn with trigger a general election.  So the goat skin is awaiting!

What a shambles. I thought May might have 6 months, but it's looking like she might have to go before the end of the week.

[vogie]

Just now, brewsterbudgen said:

What a shambles. I thought May might have 6 months, but it's looking like she might have to go before the end of the week.

Please don't hold your breath, oh on second thoughts.........

[the guest]

UK really is a messed-up country, can't even organize a piss-up in a brewery !

[Orac]

She could always rule with a no overall majority?

She still needs 320 votes for approval of the legislative program (Queens speech).

[vogie]

1 minute ago, Orac said:

 

She still needs 320 votes for approval of the legislative program (Queens speech).

 

No she doesn't. She can go it alone but would struggle to get legislation passed.

[Orac]

No she doesn't. She can go it alone but would struggle to get legislation passed.

The Queens Speech sets out the legislative agenda for the incoming government and needs to be approved by a vote in the HoC (it is debated in the HoL but no vote requirement). Since speaker plus three deputies don't vote and the seven Sinn Fien MPs don't take their seats the votes needed to approve the speech are 320.

[dunroaming]

10 minutes ago, vogie said:

No she doesn't. She can go it alone but would struggle to get legislation passed.

Not only struggle to get it passed but could be voted down and that would trigger a leadership challenge and then a general election.  Sorry to repeat myself but she cannot afford to take the chance.  She is desperately trying to keep her head above water

[vogie]

Just now, dunroaming said:

Not only struggle to get it passed but could be voted down and that would trigger a leadership challenge and then a general election.  Sorry to repeat myself but she cannot afford to take the chance.  She is desperately trying to keep her head above water

I totally agree with you,  but what I'm saying if she can't get a coalition, she can go alone, wrong or right?

[vogie]

22 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

The Queens Speech sets out the legislative agenda for the incoming government and needs to be approved by a vote in the HoC (it is debated in the HoL but no vote requirement). Since speaker plus three deputies don't vote and the seven Sinn Fien MPs don't take their seats the votes needed to approve the speech are 320.

 

Look I have just found this from the Telegraph.

 

"

If Theresa May can't get the numbers it will be Labour's chance to try and do the same unless the Tories want to try their luck with a minority.

Labour has said it will not seek a coalition, instead seeking to govern as a minority government if possible. And Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron pledged during the election not to go into coalition with either the Tories or Labour."

[Orac]

Look I have just found this from the Telegraph.

 

"

If Theresa May can't get the numbers it will be Labour's chance to try and do the same unless the Tories want to try their luck with a minority.

Labour has said it will not seek a coalition, instead seeking to govern as a minority government if possible. And Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron pledged during the election not to go into coalition with either the Tories or Labour."

 

Not sure where they are getting that from. If the govt fail to pass the Queens Speech it is classed as a Vote of No Confidence forcing resignation (Corbyn's chance) or General Election - see page 3 of the attached under Motions of No Confidence.

 

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/m07.pdf

[dunroaming]

2 hours ago, vogie said:

I totally agree with you,  but what I'm saying if she can't get a coalition, she can go alone, wrong or right?

Right I think but she wouldn't do it as it would be political suicide.  Still with her who knows!

[dunroaming]

BBC now saying it is possible the Queens Speech will go ahead on time.  Not sure if that means that the DUP have signed the deal or not!

[lamyai3]

15 hours ago, JAG said:

"Dismantling the welfare state", in this context, means not being prepared to throw eye watering amounts of money at it regardless od effects or benefit. Money that can only be raised by borrowing, because it will not and never could be raised by taxation.

Don't get me wrong, I think that the Tory campaign was pathetic, and the shambles over social care was an epic clusterf*ck, but at no time was dismantling the welfare state on the agenda.

You beat me to it, I was just going to use the technical term "clusterf*ck" myself. 

[lamyai3]

12 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Whichever way you look at it Britain will end up worse off due to Brexit.  If May survives until the negotiations are complete then she will surely have to go then.  I suspect she rues the day she threw her hat in the ring to be PM.

If ever there was a poisoned chalice.... 

[nausea]

6 hours ago, dunroaming said:

BBC now saying it is possible the Queens Speech will go ahead on time.  Not sure if that means that the DUP have signed the deal or not!

Apparently, a contributory factor to the possible delay, even when if deal is concluded, is that it's written on goat skin parchment and they have to give it a few days to dry; I kid you not.

[bkkcanuck8]

9 hours ago, Orac said:

 

The Queens Speech sets out the legislative agenda for the incoming government and needs to be approved by a vote in the HoC (it is debated in the HoL but no vote requirement). Since speaker plus three deputies don't vote and the seven Sinn Fien MPs don't take their seats the votes needed to approve the speech are 320.

 

No, there is still not 320 requirement that I know of.... you could have things like people sitting on their hands and abstaining just because they don't want to vote for it -- but also don't want to seem eager to go to the polls again -- and the potential for a massive backlash for not trying to make it work.

 

The vote is a confidence vote so failing to pass it is no confidence and the government falls.  A second party could be given a chance to pull together enough support to form a government but that would require almost every single non Conservative MP to fall into line behind Labour -- the numbers really are not that workable.

Edited June 12, 2017 by bkkcanuck8

[Orac]

Apparently, a contributory factor to the possible delay, even when if deal is concluded, is that it's written on goat skin parchment and they have to give it a few days to dry; I kid you not.

Apparently not anymore. It used to be but now just done on high quality parchment.

I will double down on your 'kid' you not pun and call this one a scapegoating for not having an agenda ready yet.

[vogie]

28 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Apparently not anymore. It used to be but now just done on high quality parchment.

I will double down on your 'kid' you not pun and call this one a scapegoating for not having an agenda ready yet.

 

The Queen’s Speech is going to be delayed because it has to be written on goatskin paper and the ink takes days to dry.

 

Again written from yesterdays Telegraph?

[Orac]

The Queen’s Speech is going to be delayed because it has to be written on goatskin paper and the ink takes days to dry.

 

Again written from yesterdays Telegraph?

 

I will find links later but saw it yesterday on a BBC article followed by a tweet overnight from a former 'Master of the Documents' or some such title for the Houses of Parliament.

 

Edit - tweet link here

 

 

And bio

 

http://www.carolineshenton.co.uk/about/

 

[melvinmelvin]

Thought there was, since long, a EC Directive ruling out the use of any animal fare as a substrate for writing/conveying

legal texts and/or government plans.

 

Leaving the EU and the directives behind may in the future endanger and decimate the goat herds on the B isles.

 

 

[brewsterbudgen]

2 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

Thought there was, since long, a EC Directive ruling out the use of any animal fare as a substrate for writing/conveying

legal texts and/or government plans.

 

Leaving the EU and the directives behind may in the future endanger and decimate the goat herds on the B isles.

 

 

Another argument for Remain!

[melvinmelvin]

The discussion about hard/soft/semi-hard/semi-soft brexits both here and in UK media seem to take a form like

this is something UK can decide on her own. There is another party to these brexits and that is the EC (or EU if you like), they may also have some views on this, should not be forgotten me thinks.