Hardcore price hikes on flights online to bkk

bberrythailand · July 18, 2017

On 7/16/2017 at 5:09 PM, CNXBKKMAN said:

Just about everything you say is completely wrong. From the UK the lowest airfares(of the year) and best time to be booking late is May June Sept and Oct. Demand is lower and the weather is the hot season or the rainy season. With the lower demand at these times, with your logic you say you have to pay a higher price because you are travelling in the "wrong" season but the reality is the the prices are lower.

When you get to July and August this is the peak travel time at UK, European and USA airports. The busiest time of the year for passenger numbers. The most take offs and landings in one day will happen on some weekend dates in this period. Records may be broken. It's still the rainy season in Thailand but the airfares are higher in this period and many Brits and Europeans will take holiday in Thailand because that's the only period they can get sufficient time off work. It will cause a jump in demand.

haha so true ! Thank you for telling him how much he is wrong.

KhunBENQ · July 18, 2017

On 16.7.2017 at 5:09 PM, CNXBKKMAN said:

Just about everything you say is completely wrong. From the UK the lowest airfares(of the year) and best time to be booking late is May June Sept and Oct

Not only from UK but also from Germany.

June was always a cheap month.

It's the month before holiday season starts.

A mate from Hamburg always comes in September because everything is cheap.

(I tried to talk him out of this to no avail, September is a gamble weather-wise and this year I fear for the worst).

Soon some German/Thai families will be are arriving.

I don't know yet what they paid for their flights.

55Jay · July 18, 2017

I typically use Momondo when I first start looking at flights. When you input flight, dates, etc., there's a link near the top right of the results page called "flight insight". May not be completely accurate, other sites may have similar or better, but for me, a worthwhile look when I first start sussing out trends and costs on a particular route.

http://cfse.momondo.com/

Chivas · July 18, 2017

just use travel supermarket its powered by sky scanner anyway

chris455 · July 18, 2017

9 hours ago, JamJar said:

Public holidays are priced accordingly. Nothing to do with the weather in Thailand. Airlines don't lay off their schedules in July and August and then reinstate them from September onwards.

You're completely missing my point. My point is that there is very LITTLE demand during July and August, why? Well because those are the WORSE months to be in Thailand. Simply put you'll find the same applies to Latin America. Think awful humidity and rains.... Demand goes down, and airline prices rise: It aint a popular time to fly there, so prices rise due to lack of demand.

In contrast, right now you'll find flight prices to Europe are still cheap as chips, and have not risen because of School Holidays, so this disproves that theory of yours, as far as i'm concerned. It is also the best time to visit Europe, weather wise. Now isn't THAT interesting?!

Also, Yes, back to Thailand/Latin America; you can find cheap flights June: They are selling them off as quick as they can before July hits. However the normal(although not golden)rule, is book 2-3+ months in advance to score cheapest deals. The o/p was talking about finding cheap deals 'days before' departure dates, rather than say 3-4 weeks, saying he used to have success with that!

Well, i even found a super cheap flight to Cancun, so there are no hard and fast rules, and maybe prices are ALSO pumped up because of School Holidays. Notice i say 'MAYBE'!

In fact you may well be the 'wrongest' to assume you are 'right', because you fail to consider the various factors at work here;that being shitty weather in Thailand, low demand, and possibly the school holiday price hike combined into one!

Unless you work in the Airline business, you are guessing, just like i am.....You therefore cannot say you are definately right here. It would be nice to hear from a 'real' expert in the travel business, or Airline boss.

Edited July 18, 2017 by chris455

JamJar · July 18, 2017

5 hours ago, chris455 said:

You're completely missing my point. My point is that there is very LITTLE demand during July and August, why? Well because those are the WORSE months to be in Thailand. Simply put you'll find the same applies to Latin America. Think awful humidity and rains.... Demand goes down, and airline prices rise: It aint a popular time to fly there, so prices rise due to lack of demand.

In contrast, right now you'll find flight prices to Europe are still cheap as chips, and have not risen because of School Holidays, so this disproves that theory of yours, as far as i'm concerned. It is also the best time to visit Europe, weather wise. Now isn't THAT interesting?!

Also, Yes, back to Thailand/Latin America; you can find cheap flights June: They are selling them off as quick as they can before July hits. However the normal(although not golden)rule, is book 2-3+ months in advance to score cheapest deals. The o/p was talking about finding cheap deals 'days before' departure dates, rather than say 3-4 weeks, saying he used to have success with that!

Well, i even found a super cheap flight to Cancun, so there are no hard and fast rules, and maybe prices are ALSO pumped up because of School Holidays. Notice i say 'MAYBE'!

In fact you may well be the 'wrongest' to assume you are 'right', because you fail to consider the various factors at work here;that being shitty weather in Thailand, low demand, and possibly the school holiday price hike combined into one!

Unless you work in the Airline business, you are guessing, just like i am.....You therefore cannot say you are definately right here. It would be nice to hear from a 'real' expert in the travel business, or Airline boss.

Chris, let it go. You have got it wrong and are now just compounding it.

Look at the trend for London to Bangkok;

You will see that the price spikes occur roughly during the long school holidays.

If your theory was correct, the high prices would be in October/November, when most of the flooding occurs in Bangkok and Pattaya...

JamJar · July 18, 2017

You can use this; http://whatweekisit.org to check the week numbers with the ones on the graph above.

HooHaa · July 18, 2017

European holiday season.

same every year.

chris455 · July 18, 2017

Oct-Nov? Thats the time when everyone goes to Khao Lak, so there is demand, hence cheap prices. Thailand does NOT revolve around Bkk and Pattaya.

My theory does have merit.

Where's the Travel experts ?

Edited July 18, 2017 by chris455

Scott · July 18, 2017

Inflammatory post and reply removed.

JamJar · July 18, 2017

Anyway, back to the topic, chris455.

The arrivals graph here shows that the lowest amount of arrivals(lowest demand) correspond to the lowest fares and the highest amount of arrivals corresponds to the highest fares.

You suggest that there is little demand in July and August. The Thailand arrivals graph, illustrates otherwise. Put that together with the pricing graph and your theory doesn't hold water.

What say you?

JamJar · July 18, 2017

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

chris455 · July 19, 2017

@ The arrivals graph here shows that the lowest amount of arrivals(lowest demand) correspond to the lowest fares and the highest amount of arrivals corresponds to the highest fares. @

What are we using as examples for your Theory? Thailand flights only, or flights to various destinations, to make a fair comparison??

I have already showed that your theory doesn't hold up to scrutiny, and have given Latin America as a similar example to express my 'low demand theory', because the travel seasons are similar to Thailand. Also, it's high season for Europe, yet flights there are still cheap as chips.

Whilst there may be some truth with 'school holidays' theory, i certainly believe low demand can push up fares. It's obvious really isn't it? It's called 'competition'.

I'll stand by my theories thank you. You can have yours.

Edited July 19, 2017 by chris455

JamJar · July 19, 2017

2 hours ago, chris455 said:

@ The arrivals graph here shows that the lowest amount of arrivals(lowest demand) correspond to the lowest fares and the highest amount of arrivals corresponds to the highest fares. @

What are we using as examples for your Theory? Thailand flights only, or flights to various destinations, to make a fair comparison??

I have already showed that your theory doesn't hold up to scrutiny, and have given Latin America as a similar example to express my 'low demand theory', because the travel seasons are similar to Thailand. Also, it's high season for Europe, yet flights there are still cheap as chips.

Whilst there may be some truth with 'school holidays' theory, i certainly believe low demand can push up fares. It's obvious really isn't it? It's called 'competition'.

I'll stand by my theories thank you. You can have yours.

May I remind you of the title of this thread?

Hardcore price hikes on flights online to bkk

May I remind you of the basis for this forum?

Thai Visa

That is what we have been discussing for the whole of the thread. Now that you have been proved wrong, you wish to shift the subject to Latin America.

Is Chris short for Christine? Usually it's just girls who change the subject when they are losing an argument.

So, do you concede that you are wrong about the subject in question, Thailand?

If you want to show that you are right about Latin America, post the facts and figures as I did for Thailand, in order to present your theory as viable.

I'm guessing that you will not be able to do so.

JamJar · July 19, 2017

2 hours ago, chris455 said:

@ The arrivals graph here shows that the lowest amount of arrivals(lowest demand) correspond to the lowest fares and the highest amount of arrivals corresponds to the highest fares. @

What are we using as examples for your Theory? Thailand flights only, or flights to various destinations, to make a fair comparison??

I have already showed that your theory doesn't hold up to scrutiny, and have given Latin America as a similar example to express my 'low demand theory', because the travel seasons are similar to Thailand. Also, it's high season for Europe, yet flights there are still cheap as chips.

Whilst there may be some truth with 'school holidays' theory, i certainly believe low demand can push up fares. It's obvious really isn't it? It's called 'competition'.

I'll stand by my theories thank you. You can have yours.

You seem to be back-pedalling. It was everyone else who told you that demand was a factor. Whereas you asserted that the times of the lowest demand had the highest prices. Low demand doesn't push fares up. No competition can keep prices high, not low demand.

As to Europe, there are a huge volume of flights to Europe. The routes with the most competition will have the lowest prices. But regardless of that, prices will usually be cheaper off season. The price of accommodation in those places will also go up, according to their peak season.

As I told you earlier, your algorithm is not only over-simplistic, but inappropriate. You haven't proved anything with an anecdote about a flight price to Cancun.

There are many factors involved in flight pricing, Competition being an important factor alongside seasonality.

Seriously chris455, you are making yourself like silly with this. You should stop digging, before you become completely submerged. You already appear woefully out of your depth.

If you can back up your assertion that low demand means higher flight prices, I am sure that we would all like to see it.

craigt3365 · July 19, 2017

Prices are also impacted by the scheduled flights. Take a few out of the equation due to low demand, and prices for the remaining will spike.

chris455 · July 19, 2017

51 minutes ago, JamJar said:

Seriously chris455, you are making yourself like silly with this. You should stop digging, before you become completely submerged. You already appear woefully out of your depth.

If you can back up your assertion that low demand means higher flight prices, I am sure that we would all like to see it.

No, i won't have you trying to muddy the water of what i have repeatedly said. My opinions are mine, you can have yours.

I've said that school holidays may have driven up the prices, AS WELL AS low season, yet you've argued that it's only school holidays.

Now you seem to be thrashing about and adding stuff to your argument and misquoting a Cancun airfare??

Ahem...I'm using simple examples that Latin America's weather seasons are similar as Thailand's. July/August, like Thailand(for the most part) are crappy travel times. Therefore less travelled as well. Therefore flight prices rise.

In contrast, Europe is good weather, and therefore high season during this time, so is travelled more. Therefore flight prices are cheap.

As Craig (above) has just said: " Prices are also impacted by the scheduled flights. Take a few out of the equation due to low demand, and prices for the remaining will spike."

>Now, maybe i have explained to the o/p why they can't get cheap last minute flights at this time. Simply put, there aren't any.

I can only suggest flying when the weather picks up, and more people decide they would rather travel when humidity is down, rainfall has gone, and the sun is shining.

That kinda makes sense, doesn't it?

Edited July 19, 2017 by chris455

CNXBKKMAN · July 19, 2017

34 minutes ago, chris455 said:

No, i won't have you trying to muddy the water of what i have repeatedly said. My opinions are mine, you can have yours.

I've said that school holidays may have driven up the prices, AS WELL AS low season, yet you've argued that it's only school holidays.

Now you seem to be thrashing about and adding stuff to your argument and misquoting a Cancun airfare??

Ahem...I'm using simple examples that Latin America's weather seasons are similar as Thailand's. July/August, like Thailand(for the most part) are crappy travel times. Therefore less travelled as well. Therefore flight prices rise.

In contrast, Europe is good weather, and therefore high season during this time, so is travelled more. Therefore flight prices are cheap.

As Craig (above) has just said: " Prices are also impacted by the scheduled flights. Take a few out of the equation due to low demand, and prices for the remaining will spike."

>Now, maybe i have explained to the o/p why they can't get cheap last minute flights at this time. Simply put, there aren't any.

I can only suggest flying when the weather picks up, and more people decide they would rather travel when humidity is down, rainfall has gone, and the sun is shining.

That kinda makes sense, doesn't it?

No it doesn't make sense you were completely wrong before and you are still wrong now after many people have proved you wrong. You arguments are back to front and jumbled up.

Cancun is a big holiday destination from europe served mainly by charter flights. Almost no business traffic and very few scheduled airlines from Europe bother with it. Charter airlines will discount their tickets close to departure if they are not full, scheduled airlines rarely do this. If they do it's to a much smaller degree. This is a totally different market to Europe to Thailand where it's nearly all scheduled airlines and very few charters plus there is much more business traffic and people connect on to neighbouring countries. Almost nobody flys to Cancun to then fly onwards.

Europe to South America is served by far fewer airlines and numbers of aircraft than Europe to Thailand and Asia. There are convoys of 777's , A380's, 747's flying into Thailand compared to Lima, Buenos Aires, Rio etc. The market to South America is much smaller so comparing airfares to these destinations isn't really appropriate although the very same thing happens, it's cheaper to fly to these cities when there is low demand and when demand is higher the airfares are higher.

There are multiple points to pull you up on but most of use can't be bothered after six pages in of this thread.

JamJar · July 19, 2017

1 hour ago, craigt3365 said:

Prices are also impacted by the scheduled flights. Take a few out of the equation due to low demand, and prices for the remaining will spike.

That is called competition, not low demand. Don't mix the two.

Remember that chris455 referred to July and August. So we are not talking about operators reducing their schedules when there is more demand. So this is not an issue of low demand.

JamJar · July 19, 2017

58 minutes ago, chris455 said:

No, i won't have you trying to muddy the water of what i have repeatedly said. My opinions are mine, you can have yours.

I've said that school holidays may have driven up the prices, AS WELL AS low season, yet you've argued that it's only school holidays.

Now you seem to be thrashing about and adding stuff to your argument and misquoting a Cancun airfare??

Ahem...I'm using simple examples that Latin America's weather seasons are similar as Thailand's. July/August, like Thailand(for the most part) are crappy travel times. Therefore less travelled as well. Therefore flight prices rise.

In contrast, Europe is good weather, and therefore high season during this time, so is travelled more. Therefore flight prices are cheap.

As Craig (above) has just said: " Prices are also impacted by the scheduled flights. Take a few out of the equation due to low demand, and prices for the remaining will spike."

>Now, maybe i have explained to the o/p why they can't get cheap last minute flights at this time. Simply put, there aren't any.

I can only suggest flying when the weather picks up, and more people decide they would rather travel when humidity is down, rainfall has gone, and the sun is shining.

That kinda makes sense, doesn't it?

You appear to be punch-drunk. You arguments concerning Thailand failed miserably.

Quote

Oct-Nov? Thats the time when everyone goes to Khao Lak, so there is demand, hence cheap prices.

You're completely missing my point. My point is that there is very LITTLE demand during July and August, why? Well because those are the WORSE months to be in Thailand.

There were no cheap flights to Thailand June., and you'll find plenty cheap flights oct nov dev jan feb march, if u book in advance. I stand by my words.

I showed you that travel actually increases to Thailand in July and August, so your low demand theory went right out of the window. So now you have moved on to Europe and Latin America, as if they are a single entity.

Your thinking is ludicrously simplistic and bound to fail.

Instead of admitting that you have learned something from this debate, you are still trying to insist that you were right all along.

Even though I have completed debunked your fallacies about low demand and high prices with reference to Thailand, you still end your post with the same nonsense. Lights are on, but no one home...

If there aren't any cheap flights in July and August, it is because of the high demand. Airlines don't need to discount because of high demand and a captive audience. If there is low demand, they discount to encourage people to fly with them and not the competition.

craigt3365 · July 19, 2017

40 minutes ago, JamJar said:

That is called competition, not low demand. Don't mix the two.

Remember that chris455 referred to July and August. So we are not talking about operators reducing their schedules when there is more demand. So this is not an issue of low demand.

Low demand. Otherwise why would Thai Air cancel their direct flight to LA? Not all routes have many competitors.

CNXBKKMAN · July 19, 2017

Lots of competition on Asia to LAX , and lots of seats. The airfares to LA are the consistently the lowest of any city in north or South America from Asia. Many airlines find it impossible to make a profit on this route so they pull out even though there is demand, like TG and MH. It's ultra competitive. Many of the lowest airfares are on Chinese government owned airlines that other airlines cant compete with.

JamJar · July 19, 2017

58 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Low demand. Otherwise why would Thai Air cancel their direct flight to LA? Not all routes have many competitors.

Yes. That is low demand, not the reason for increased prices. chris455 is suggesting that low demand is the reason for increased prices. Which of course is nonsense.

It's not as if scheduled airlines cancel their flights from London to Bangkok in July and August and then reinstate them when the weather improves later in the year, as chris455 is suggesting.

Maybe chris455 is one of those businessmen so ridiculed on these forums, who puts the price up when he has less customers to try to make up for the loss of custom.

rogeroc · July 19, 2017

4 hours ago, chris455 said:

In contrast, Europe is good weather, and therefore high season during this time, so is travelled more. Therefore flight prices are cheap.

Chris 455 you are absolutely wrong on this, the dearest prices from from UK to Europe will be the school holidays, July / August.

chris455 · July 19, 2017

3 hours ago, JamJar said:

It's not as if scheduled airlines cancel their flights from London to Bangkok in July and August and then reinstate them when the weather improves later in the year, as chris455 is suggesting.

Never have i read so much rubbish and spindoctoring!

Stop twisting what i say. Since when have i even suggested that airlines cancel flights as you suggested, then reinstate them later??

Your reasoning is making me (and others) wonder. It is damned OBVIOUS to anyone that low demand means higher prices. Let me use other examples to illustrate what i have rightly suggested before, so you can re educate yourself:

Low season in Thailand, Latin America= July , August. Why?? Shitty weather. Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition.

Also: July, August in Europe= High season. Why?? Great weather!. Higher demand= Cheap flights, due to more competition.

July and August is NOT the busiest time in Thailand. The high season in Thailand is Jan-March. It's known as the super high season.

JamJar · July 19, 2017

1 hour ago, chris455 said:

Never have i read so much rubbish and spindoctoring!

Stop twisting what i say. Since when have i even suggested that airlines cancel flights as you suggested, then reinstate them later??

Your reasoning is making me (and others) wonder. It is damned OBVIOUS to anyone that low demand means higher prices. Let me use other examples to illustrate what i have rightly suggested before, so you can re educate yourself:

Low season in Thailand, Latin America= July , August. Why?? Shitty weather. Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition.

Also: July, August in Europe= High season. Why?? Great weather!. Higher demand= Cheap flights, due to more competition.

July and August is NOT the busiest time in Thailand. The high season in Thailand is Jan-March. It's known as the super high season.

Who are these others who you suggest agree with you??

There is not even a single person reading this thread that agrees with you.

The thread topic is about Thailand. Stick to the subject instead of trying to move the goalposts and then failing in that too.

What on earth is this confused nonsense?

Quote

Low season in Thailand, Latin America= July , August. Why?? Shitty weather. Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition.

The graph that I showed you shows increased arrivals to Thailand in July and August. So how does that tally with your "Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition" statement, when it is clearly a period of high demand?

CNXBKKMAN explained Cancun to you succinctly, but that, much like everything else in this thread, has gone straight over your head.

Seriously....are you ok? There seems to be something not quite right....

JamJar · July 19, 2017

1 hour ago, chris455 said:

Never have i read so much rubbish and spindoctoring!

Stop twisting what i say. Since when have i even suggested that airlines cancel flights as you suggested, then reinstate them later??

Your reasoning is making me (and others) wonder. It is damned OBVIOUS to anyone that low demand means higher prices. Let me use other examples to illustrate what i have rightly suggested before, so you can re educate yourself:

Low season in Thailand, Latin America= July , August. Why?? Shitty weather. Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition.

Also: July, August in Europe= High season. Why?? Great weather!. Higher demand= Cheap flights, due to more competition.

July and August is NOT the busiest time in Thailand. The high season in Thailand is Jan-March. It's known as the super high season.

I am quite sure that you are Trolling. There can be no other explanation

Super Peak season is the period over Christmas and New Year. Then it drops down to High Season.

July August is one of the busiest times as indicated by the graph supplied to you. Three times but you still aren't getting it....

chris455 · July 19, 2017

41 minutes ago, JamJar said:

The graph that I showed you shows increased arrivals to Thailand in July and August. So how does that tally with your "Low demand= Higher prices, due to lack of competition" statement, when it is clearly a period of high demand?

phoney graph?

@Low Season Cons : In the rainy season, there is risk you will be rained on every day. However, it is usually a short, sharp downpour and is quickly over and the sunshine returns. Broadly speaking, the rainy season is from May to October, with regional variations@

SOURCE: https://xpat.life/thailand/low-season

Facts back up my theory: July/August is the LOW season.

Edited July 19, 2017 by chris455

JamJar · July 19, 2017

2 hours ago, chris455 said:

phoney graph?

@Low Season Cons : In the rainy season, there is risk you will be rained on every day. However, it is usually a short, sharp downpour and is quickly over and the sunshine returns. Broadly speaking, the rainy season is from May to October, with regional variations@

SOURCE: https://xpat.life/thailand/low-season

Facts back up my theory: July/August is the LOW season.

Fake graph? What would be the reason for them to fake it?

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

Is this graph fake too?

Year upon year, arrivals go up in July and August. It's clearly such a shock to your system, that you are unable to accept it.

I think people here are becoming concerned as to your mental health. I'm not joking.

JamJar · July 20, 2017

3 hours ago, chris455 said:

phoney graph?

@Low Season Cons : In the rainy season, there is risk you will be rained on every day. However, it is usually a short, sharp downpour and is quickly over and the sunshine returns. Broadly speaking, the rainy season is from May to October, with regional variations@

SOURCE: https://xpat.life/thailand/low-season

Facts back up my theory: July/August is the LOW season.

I see..... because a website you found equates the rainy season with low season, that automatically means that July and August is a period of low demand?

Apart from that folly, weren't you the one insisting that Thailand wasn't just about Bangkok and Pattaya?

Since July & August is not rainy season on Samui, is it low season there?

Seriously, you need to stop. You are floundering around desperately. It is sad to watch.

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