Thai Baht - Your take?

[amvet]

3 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

Ask the financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus and you will have 3 different predictions!!

 

Welcome to the russian roulette world of finance predictions!

Bet you can't quote two financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus that disagree.

[buffallobill]

my Wife has told me the pound will weaken against the baht next month, but by Christmas it will be strong again.........

[observer90210]

10 minutes ago, amvet said:

Bet you can't quote two financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus that disagree.

Well to oblige you, I will - one says it will go up, the other says it will go down but both claim that it is not for the moment and they do not know when

Edited July 29, 2017 by observer90210

[KhonKaenKowboy]

55 minutes ago, robblok said:

That depends who you are.. if you had money in the stock market.. sure.. if your an expat living here on U$ savings not in the stock-market.. not so much

Only 20% of the US owns stock, and that is why there are such large wealth disparities.  However, living abroad doesn't disqualify one from investing actively or passively in the US.  Even Dr Doom is 25% in equities, according to a recent interview...and not a single short position.

[amvet]

1 minute ago, observer90210 said:

Sure I can...one says it will go up, the other says it will go down

Who?  Name and expertise and date of forecast?  You don't strike me as the type of person who would be paying for decent financial information.  Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, Marc Faber  all agree.  Perhaps you could list three that don't.  Just saying

[amvet]

12 minutes ago, KhonKaenKowboy said:

Only 20% of the US owns stock, and that is why there are such large wealth disparities.  However, living abroad doesn't disqualify one from investing actively or passively in the US.  Even Dr Doom is 25% in equities, according to a recent interview...and not a single short position.

According to a Gallup poll published in April, just over half of Americans say they invest in stocks — this matches the lowest ownership rate since Gallup starting this poll. Ownership rose slightly in 2014 and 2015, but is down to 52 percent from highs in 2007 and 2008, at 65 and 62 percent, respectively.   Dr Doom says as of June 17 Once people start selling, Faber warns grimly, there will be an avalanche. “I think a realistic scenario is that asset holders will lose 50% of their assets," Faber says. "Some people will lose everything

 

Edited July 29, 2017 by amvet

[observer90210]

10 minutes ago, amvet said:

Who?  Name and expertise and date of forecast?  You don't strike me as the type of person who would be paying for decent financial information.  Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, Marc Faber  all agree.  Perhaps you could list three that don't.  Just saying

My dear fellow, I am sure if you once again google the issue you are bound to find answers to your question, if not try again and do come back when you do get the answer!

You seem as a member of the fan club of the names you cite, but you are a bit off topic, as the initial topic of the OP was with regard to divergence of predictions. Not all that hard to understand I would say.

 

p.s.

[KhonKaenKowboy]

George Soros lost a billion USD by taking short positions after the election, Warren Buffet went long with 12 Billion.  If you've been listening to Faber for eight years, you have already lost a fortune..and would be a lot worse off than had you been long and suffered a 50% loss.  Which sector will you short?  Try SDS or SPXS....a great way to lose your shirt in a bull market.

 

A report on 4-9-2013 by CNBC states that a Federal Reserve study shows only 13.8% of US households own stocks, down from 15.1% in 2010.  Far more scientific than other Surveys.

[janclaes47]

1 hour ago, Suradit69 said:

And he wanted to repeal ObamaCare, ban all Muslims, reduce the corporate tax rates, build a wall on the Mexican border ...

What's happening has very little to do with what he wants.

Don't worry, he has another seven and half year to accomplish what he want, he has just started.

[hugh2121]

On 28/07/2017 at 6:10 PM, KhonKaenKowboy said:

Really?  10% YTD return on the S&P 500.  Could you tell us one sector you would short over the next 90-180 days amidst all these scary times?   THB is up 7% this year vs. the Dollar...just another blown oportunity by the liar letter crowd.  They didn't bring it over at 36, and wouldn't at 56.  Just like the life long renters...prices dropped 75% and they are still renting.  The positives from small currency fluctuations outweigh the negatives.  

S&P 500 is only up 10% in USD terms but the USD is down on 1st Jan value.

If the USD has fallen 7% against the THB, that makes the gain on S&P 500 around 3% in THB terms. That sounds about right as it's up 3.5% in GBP terms.

[puipuitom]

In '88-89 I followed a course in international trade and currency relations als evening student at the Amsterdam Uni. At the end, one of the students thanked the Professor for the 13 interesting lectures of over 2 12 hour each, about ... from the Middle Ages till the beginning of the European currency. "But.. Professor, can you also tell the exchange rate of the US$ towards the European currency for tomorrow, next week, next month  ?

His reply: "for the exchange rates of the US$ ( and many others ) in the future you have to be at the Faculty of Psychology, NOT of Economics".

As the THB is tight up to the US$ for 90%, what do YOU think ?

Thai rice exports have more problems with the huge increase of exports of Vietnamese and Cambodian rice than with the Thai currency. The Thai were only buzy with the decission to wear yellow or red shirts, while the rest of the world was thinking of how to earn money, for instance to continue their EU custom preferences.

And.. do your really think many tourists let their decission to go to Thailand depend on the exchange rate: 36 THB for a Euro or 38 THB ? For ONLY the amount they spend outside the plane ticket, the alredy booked tour / hotel incl meals ?  One terrorist attack hurts more as a 10% currency increase. Ask Tunesia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. So, quite some might have decided for THAT to go to Thailand.

[amvet]

4 minutes ago, KhonKaenKowboy said:

George Soros lost a billion USD by taking short positions after the election, Warren Buffet went long with 12 Billion.  If you've been listening to Faber for eight years, you have already lost a fortune..and would be a lot worse off than had you been long and suffered a 50% loss.  Which sector will you short?  Try SDS or SPXS....a great way to lose your shirt in a bull market.

 

A report on 4-9-2013 by CNBC states that a Federal Reserve study shows only 13.8% of US households own stocks, down from 15.1% in 2010.  Far more scientific than other Surveys.

The average American household has become much more exposed to the stock market, according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. According to a Gallup poll published in April, just over half of Americans say they invest in stocks.  

Average Americans have a lot at stake in the stock market

Rebecca Ungarino | @ungarino

Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 |

Soros' largest fund, Soros Fund Management, gained 5% over the year.  According to WSJ. Faber says hold gold.  How has that done in the past 10 years?

 

 

 

[spec4]

36 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

Don't worry, he has another seven and half year to accomplish what he want, he has just started.

With an ego like Trumps, don't expect him to stay in office for anything like a full term.

[KhonKaenKowboy]

55 minutes ago, amvet said:

The average American household has become much more exposed to the stock market, according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. According to a Gallup poll published in April, just over half of Americans say they invest in stocks.  

Average Americans have a lot at stake in the stock market

Rebecca Ungarino | @ungarino

Thursday, 6 Oct 2016 |

Soros' largest fund, Soros Fund Management, gained 5% over the year.  According to WSJ. Faber says hold gold.  How has that done in the past 10 years?

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/08/the-stock-gap-american-stock-holdings-at-18-year-low.html%https://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/08/the-stock-gap-american-stock-holdings-at-18-year-low.html

 

 

14% directly invested in stocks.....

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/billionaire-george-soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-in-weeks-after-trump-election-1484227167

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-after-trump-election-wsj-reports

 

Edited July 29, 2017 by KhonKaenKowboy

[janclaes47]

5 minutes ago, KhonKaenKowboy said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/08/the-stock-gap-american-stock-holdings-at-18-year-low.html%https://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/08/the-stock-gap-american-stock-holdings-at-18-year-low.html

 

 

14% directly invested in stocks.....

 

 

You will know that first of all your article is 3 years old, and secondary that there is a huge difference between being directly invested in stocks and being exposed to the stock market.

 

Those who bought mutual funds are also exposed.

[KhonKaenKowboy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/marc-faber-there-will-be-another-massive-financial-crisis-in-my-lifetime.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/marc-faber-there-will-be-

 

recent Faber interview....25% in equities.

 

 

[KhonKaenKowboy]

44 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

You will know that first of all your article is 3 years old, and secondary that there is a huge difference between being directly invested in stocks and being exposed to the stock market.

 

Those who bought mutual funds are also exposed.

Everyone on the planet is exposed to stocks to some degree...even with half of Americans with retirement accounts ts, 70% of adults have less than 1000$ saved.  Have a look at CNBC ratings....most have never seen it few could name any of the reporters.  Well less than 1% of TV viewers in the US, even during market hours.

 

About one in 1800 Americans are watching CNBC during market hours.

Edited July 29, 2017 by KhonKaenKowboy

[moe666]

We need more inflow of money from the US and Japan of a couple ofyears  ago my Thai stocks went from 300,000b to 600,000b sold them at 560,000b for a nice profit

[MyFriend You]

Okay, I'll settle this once and for all  -  during the PM's visit in the US with Pres Trump, he will be told to lower the baht against the $$ if he knows what's good for him.  Should be 40 baht to a $$ and it will happen immediately.   See that was easy.   I'm going to bed now.

[naboo]

1 hour ago, TunnelRat69 said:

Okay, I'll settle this once and for all  -  during the PM's visit in the US with Pres Trump, he will be told to lower the baht against the $$ if he knows what's good for him.  Should be 40 baht to a $$ and it will happen immediately.   See that was easy.   I'm going to bed now.

Why would Trump want that? It would make Thai imports to the US cheaper, making US industry uncompetitive. Goes against everything Trump says, he wants Asian currencies stronger.

[janclaes47]

2 hours ago, naboo said:

Why would Trump want that? It would make Thai imports to the US cheaper, making US industry uncompetitive. Goes against everything Trump says, he wants Asian currencies stronger.

 

Trump likes Durian, I was told, and they don't grow that in the US.

[elgenon]

A certain president had to ask his advisers what were the effects of a strong dollar. 

[soalbundy]

On 7/28/2017 at 9:24 AM, Rotweiler said:

There is a school of thought who believe the Baht is being kept artificially high until the foreign debts are paid off - especially the military ones.

 

When that is done, the baht will be allowed to fall again to help make Thai businesses export competitive. 

If Thailand was buying Baht they would have to sell a weak dollar to do so and it would be apparent to the market. I see it remaining flat for years, the weakness of Thailand, slowing exports, aging population, unstable political situation,etc. will be offset by infrastructure investment after that it will fall.

[aslimversgwm]

16 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

The sidebar is resting on the lower bar which is currently applying great pressure to my throat that is connected to my hands that are holding brexit pounds.   

I like it! Same, same me!!

[Tony125]

17 hours ago, robblok said:

That depends who you are.. if you had money in the stock market.. sure.. if your an expat living here on U$ savings not in the stock-market.. not so much

Some US expats have IRA's or retirement  plans that are set up by the companies Fed or private that are based on the stock market, those that have them even though they may not buy stocks their retirement savings have soared in last 6 months.

[soalbundy]

On 7/30/2017 at 9:55 AM, aslimversgwm said:

I like it! Same, same me!!

I have just posted in the banking sector about exchange rates. I use my ATM card to draw money from my German account, what I can't understand is that they give me a far better rate of exchange than that shown on the Bangkok bank web site. I thought I was buying Thai Baht but from the exchange rate shown on my internet banking they are calculating using the selling rate which is far higher. Should I complain ? naaaaah. 

[Tony125]

Not making it: Thailand’s economy

https://espresso.economist.com/e22c686bc771d5872150738b15f3e533

[Teak]

# 2 ex said once.. "want to but USD for .75 per dollar? "  Ahhh..."how can this be?  " She said they are fakes, but good  quality fakes, and accepted at  $1.00 USD.

 

It is a piece of paper....if it looks good you get your cao neeow.. If not, no rice today for you. The trader just has to feel confident that he can pass it on.

     ...Ken

[Scooby and Puppy]

On 29/07/2017 at 1:38 PM, Bill97 said:

They are both wrong.

Ah, now you understand it.  You got there.