Thai Baht - Your take?

[Shoeless Joe]

"Thai Visa Team"

 

1) From the sidebar - "Baht Depreciation Expected"

2) From the lower bar - "Baht expected to strengthen to 21 month high"

 

So I suppose that, as the baht hasn't moved much over the last 6 months it's an indicator that both stories are right (and wrong!)

 

Regards

 

Joe

[robblok]

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

[tonray]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

Markets respond to certainty and show confidence with strength and skepticism with weakness. Guess which one the markets are showing ?

 

even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets.

Edited July 28, 2017 by tonray

[Rotweiler]

There is a school of thought who believe the Baht is being kept artificially high until the foreign debts are paid off - especially the military ones.

 

When that is done, the baht will be allowed to fall again to help make Thai businesses export competitive. 

[Sparkles]

There was an article in the main Bangkok media some weeks ago that exports were up and the future for exporters was looking very healthy. Not wishing to be cynical but its very hard to believe these articles.,also the nonsense put out by TAT that tourists are flocking in greater numbers to Thailand giving the countries economy a huge boost

 

All the indicators are with such a strong baht that it would be the opposite or at best status quo.

 

For example what is happening with the rice exports,Thailand's prime  product, we are not hearing if stockpiles are cleared or volume of current expected sales.

 

The truth and reality to me are  total strangers

 

 

[jonwilly]

Three restaurant owners have told me that business is down.

That's both farangs and Thai.

 

john

[Bill97]

Joe :

Baht against what currency? They are not all the same and do not all move the same way.

[Gonzo the Face]

3 are mentioned in above post # 2

 

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, jonwilly said:

Three restaurant owners have told me that business is down.

That's both farangs and Thai.

 

john

A lot more foreigners are using the street food vendors around here (I'm in Hua Hin), I'm not talking about the vendors in the main tourist areas in town either, these are regular local vendors where Thai people buy their food from.

 

I know one woman who has one of these little stalls, she sells some kind of meaty BBQ stick each day until she runs out of them.

 

18 Months ago during the high season on 2016 - pretty much 0 foreign customers

6 Months ago during this years high season - lots of foreign customers, every day and they come back for more.

 

There has been a big and noticeable change over the last couple of years and I believe a lot of it is due to the change in the Baht from Jan 2016 until now.

 

[Bill97]

3 are mentioned in above post # 2
 

This seems to rapidly be developing into another of those threads where nobody is on topic because there was no clear topic in the OP.

[KhonKaenKowboy]

8 hours ago, tonray said:

Markets respond to certainty and show confidence with strength and skepticism with weakness. Guess which one the markets are showing ?

 

even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets.

Really?  10% YTD return on the S&P 500.  Could you tell us one sector you would short over the next 90-180 days amidst all these scary times?   THB is up 7% this year vs. the Dollar...just another blown oportunity by the liar letter crowd.  They didn't bring it over at 36, and wouldn't at 56.  Just like the life long renters...prices dropped 75% and they are still renting.  The positives from small currency fluctuations outweigh the negatives.  

[Shoeless Joe]

7 hours ago, Bill97 said:

Joe :

Baht against what currency? They are not all the same and do not all move the same way.
 

Bill97 - Re for both of your comments (and as you clearly misunderstood what I was getting at). I wasn't highlighting the baht appreciating or depreciating against any currency.

 

The topic  was / is merely that there are 2 stories on the same subject but with contrasting headlines which can be seen on the sidebar and lower bar of the same TV page. So, which one to believe?

 

Regards,

 

Joe

[KhonKaenKowboy]

One will be a lot more recent than the other.  Would probably have two opposite threads about gas prices, too, but since we have price controls to protect us...they stay high all the time.

[Bill97]

Bill97 - Re for both of your comments (and as you clearly misunderstood what I was getting at). I wasn't highlighting the baht appreciating or depreciating against any currency.  

The topic  was / is merely that there are 2 stories on the same subject but with contrasting headlines which can be seen on the sidebar and lower bar of the same TV page. So, which one to believe?

 

Regards,

 

Joe

 

 

I still do not get what you are suggesting and since almost all the replies are about currency valuations or economic data, Does anybody?

 

 

[Ruffian Dick]

Articles that hype economical fears are always good click-bait.

[orang37]

7 hours ago, Bill97 said:

This seems to rapidly be developing into another of those threads where nobody is on topic because there was no clear topic in the OP.

I'll take a stab at guessing the real topic: ... "why is the Baht relatively stronger now against the US$ ?"

 

To put that in perspective, I think you have to ask the question: ... "is the US$ weaker against a wide range of other world-economy significant currencies?" Take a look at OANDA's currency heat-map (check the Baht entry, and China, and other Asian currencies) ^[1] : heat map link

 

The large number of currencies showing increased relative strength over the US$ (red) suggests to me the Baht's strength is not a significant determinant of the US$ strength ... at this moment.

 

Quote

no clear topic in the OP

I wonder if in the context of this forum "clear topic" is an oxymoron :)\

 

[1] Your choice of which countries you compare to is, of course, significant.

 

~o:37;

Edited July 28, 2017 by orang37
fix format error

[Shoeless Joe]

Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?

 

I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?:

1) That the baht is strengthening

2) That the baht is weakening

 

With the exception of the response from  KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated.

 

Regards,

 

Joe

 

 

 

 

[Bill97]

Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?
 
....which one was right?:
1) That the baht is strengthening
2) That the baht is weakening
 

They are both wrong.

[uptheos]

I believe that in the next year the baht will depreciated but not too much. As major rice and tourist competitors get stronger, Thailand will probably need to keep the currency a bit weaker. Having said that my granddaughter and her friend have just returned from 6 months in Thailand and they thought it was dirt cheap, so its doesn't seem to be hurting tourism, but exports might suffer. 

[johnmcc6]

On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said:

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

[uptheos]

3 minutes ago, johnmcc6 said:

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

Jobs Jobs Jobs, Exports Exports Exports, Go Donald go you know it makes sense.

Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand.

[Suradit69]

On 7/28/2017 at 9:05 AM, tonray said:

even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets.

Interest rates haven't moved up much in the US despite the Fed's actions and the two-year/10-year rate spread is less than 100 basis points, but I agree that Trump and the dysfunctional Congress are what makes the baht, Euro and pound appear to be strengthening. 

 

  

[Ron19]

Flame post removed

[Tony125]

On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said:

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

Google Dow (stock market US) price as of Nov 1,  2016  It was a little over 18,000 points 3 weeks before the election. After Trump was elected  it has risen to almost 22,000 points as of July 28, 2017 . That's a rise of almost 4,000 points in a little over 6 months and is higher now than it has ever been.  Guess Trump was the right choice.

[Suradit69]

2 hours ago, uptheos said:

Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand.

You can't seriously think Trump has any intended or tactical influence on the exchange rates or that he has a clue what's happening in Thailand. The recent more dramatic drops in the dollar index followed his new milestones of failure to get any of his legislative agenda to move forward despite holding a majority in Congress.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, Tony125 said:

Google Dow (stock market US) price as of Nov 1,  2016  It was a little over 18,000 points 3 weeks before the election. After Trump was elected  it has risen to almost 22,000 points as of July 28, 2017 . That's a rise of almost 4,000 points in a little over 6 months and is higher now than it has ever been.  Guess Trump was the right choice.

That depends who you are.. if you had money in the stock market.. sure.. if your an expat living here on U$ savings not in the stock-market.. not so much

[Suradit69]

2 hours ago, johnmcc6 said:

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

And he wanted to repeal ObamaCare, ban all Muslims, reduce the corporate tax rates, build a wall on the Mexican border ...

What's happening has very little to do with what he wants.

[sammieuk1]

The sidebar is resting on the lower bar which is currently applying great pressure to my throat that is connected to my hands that are holding brexit pounds.   

[1FinickyOne]

8 hours ago, Shoeless Joe said:

Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?

 

I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?:

1) That the baht is strengthening

2) That the baht is weakening

 

With the exception of the response from  KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated.

 

Regards,

 

Joe

 

 

 

 

Hi Shoeless Joe from kokomo

 

To answer your question... if you are accustomed to reading financial guidance papers and such, on any given day you will find many experts who think the market is going up and many who think it is going down - some see a huge increase and others a drastic crash... and you can never really be sure of their motivation. Truth is nobody can be 100% sure. 

 

The interesting concept behind these markets, be it stocks or currency etc is that at any given moment, the price represents a point where buyer meets seller and that determines the value. If more money is wanting to either buy or sell, then the market will tip in that direction.

 

It is not in the least unusual that so called experts will disagree on the future direction. 

 

hope that helps.

[observer90210]

Ask the financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus and you will have 3 different predictions!!

 

Welcome to the russian roulette world of finance predictions!