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[webfact]

After military shake-up, Erdogan says Turkey to tackle Kurds in Syria

By Dominic Evans and Orhan Coskun

 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech during the re-opening of the Ottoman-era Yildiz Hamidiye mosque in Istanbul, Turkey, August 4, 2017. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

 

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Days after a reshuffle of Turkey's top military commanders, President Tayyip Erdogan has revived warnings of military action against Kurdish fighters in Syria that could set back the U.S.-led battle against Islamic State.

 

Kurdish militia are spearheading an assault against the hardline militants in their Syrian stronghold Raqqa, from where Islamic State has planned attacks around the world for the past three years.

 

But U.S. backing for the Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria has infuriated Turkey, which views their growing battlefield strength as a security threat due to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish PKK within in its borders.

 

There have been regular exchanges of rocket and artillery fire in recent weeks between Turkish forces and YPG fighters who control part of Syria's northwestern border.

 

Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO after the United States, reinforced that section of the border at the weekend with artillery and tanks and Erdogan said Turkey was ready to take action.

 

"We will not leave the separatist organisation in peace in both Iraq and Syria," Erdogan said in a speech on Saturday in the eastern town of Malatya, referring to the YPG in Syria and PKK bases in Iraq. "We know that if we do not drain the swamp, we cannot get rid of flies."

 

The YPG denies Turkish allegations of links with Kurdish militants inside Turkey, saying it is only interested in self-rule in Syria and warning that any Turkish assault will draw its fighters away from the battle against Islamic State which they are waging in an alliance with local Arab forces.

 

Erdogan's comments follow the appointment of three new leaders of Turkey's army, air force and navy last week - moves which analysts and officials said were at least partly aimed at preparing for any campaign against the YPG militia.

 

Turkish forces swept into north Syria last year to seize territory from Islamic State, while also cutting off Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria from the Kurdish pocket of Afrin further west. They thereby prevented Kurdish control over almost the whole sweep of the border - Ankara's worst-case scenario.

 

Recent clashes have centred around the Arab towns of Tal Rifaat and Minnigh, near Afrin, which are held by the Kurdish YPG and allied fighters.

 

Erdogan said Turkey's military incursion last year dealt a blow to "terrorist projects" in the region and promised further action. "We will make new and important moves soon," he said.

 

"MORE ACTIVE" FIGHT

 

His comments follow weeks of warnings from Turkey of possible military action against the YPG.

 

Washington's concern to prevent any confrontation which deflects the Kurdish forces attacking Raqqa may help stay Ankara's hand, but a Turkish government source said last week's changes in military leadership have prepared the ground.

 

"With this new structure, some steps will be taken to be more active in the struggle against terror," the source said. "A structure that acts according to the realities of the region will be formed".

 

The battle for Raqqa has been underway since June, and a senior U.S. official said on Friday that 2,000 Islamic State fighters are believed to be still defending positions and "fighting for every last block" in the city.

 

Even after the recapture of Raqqa, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has left open the possibility of longer-term American assistance to the YPG.

 

The influence of Turkey's once-dominant military has decreased dramatically since Erdogan came to power nearly 15 years ago. A purge in senior ranks since last year's failed military coup has stripped it of 40 percent of top officers.

 

Last Wednesday's appointments were issued by the Supreme Military Council, a body which despite its name is now dominated by politicians loyal to Erdogan.

 

"Of course the political will is behind these decisions, Erdogan's preferences are behind them," the source said. "But the restructuring of the Turkish Armed Forces and the demand for a more active fight against the PKK and Islamic State also has a role".

 

Vacancies in senior military ranks resulting from the year-long purge would not be filled immediately, he said, but would be addressed over time.

 

While all three forces - air, land and sea - are under new command, focus has centred on the new army chief Yasar Guler. As head of Turkey's gendarmerie, he was seen to take a tough line against the PKK and the movement of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen blamed by the government for the July 2016 coup attempt.

 

Ankara considers the YPG an extension of the PKK, which is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and European Union.

 

Can Kasapoglu, a defence analyst at the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), said the YPG "remains at the epicentre of Turkey's threat perception".

 

Guler was well-placed to address Turkey's "transnational counter-terrorism priorities" and lead the campaign against Kurdish forces because of his past roles as chief of military intelligence, head of gendarmerie and postings to NATO.

 

"There is an undeniable likelihood that Turkey's new top military chain of command might have to lead a major campaign against the YPG," Kasapoglu said.

 

Guler is now favourite to take over from the overall head of the Turkish armed forces, General Hulusi Akar, who is due to step down in two years.

 

"Guler gets on well with members of Erdogan's AK Party and is known for his hardline performance against the PKK...and the Gulen movement," said Metin Gurcan an independent security analyst and retired Turkish military officer who now writes a column for Al-Monitor news website.

 

For the president, who faces a re-election campaign in 2019, a smooth succession from Akar to Guler would avoid any military upheaval which could send his plans off-course, Gurcan said.

 

"Until 2023, Erdogan should have smooth sailing without disruption from the Turkish armed forces."

 

(Additional reporting by Tulay Karadeniz and Dirimcan Barut in Ankara; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-08-08

 

[BuaBS]

The Kurds just can't get a break . After defeating Isis , the turkish hitler is going after them on foreign soil.

[Rancid]

Have the Kurds ever been in any doubt about what Turkey would do if they try for a Kurdistan? Seems no Arab countries are on board with that idea, seems to come purely from Israel and US. That the believe otherwise might suggest that someone has made promises and they were stupid enough to believe.

 

Erdogan of course will use the Kurds as his excuse to try and annex the north of Syria in his quest for a new Ottoman Empire. Seems that conflict will drag on forever, just as it was supposed to...

[Grouse]

Time to back Erdogan into a corner

 

high time the Kurds had their own state. I would GIVE them the Northern third of Iraq AND a large piece of Eastern Turkey and a chunk of Northern Iran. Capital? Mosul of course. "Marshall plan" to rebuild northern Iraq. 

 

Make Kurdistan a bulwark against ME nut cases.

 

Get USA AND Russian AND the EU on board. Big benefits to refugees leave EU for Kurdistan.

 

Where's Kissinger when you need him?

[Scott]

1 hour ago, Rancid said:

Have the Kurds ever been in any doubt about what Turkey would do if they try for a Kurdistan? Seems no Arab countries are on board with that idea, seems to come purely from Israel and US. That the believe otherwise might suggest that someone has made promises and they were stupid enough to believe.

 

Erdogan of course will use the Kurds as his excuse to try and annex the north of Syria in his quest for a new Ottoman Empire. Seems that conflict will drag on forever, just as it was supposed to...

It's not only the Arabs that are against an independent Kurdish homeland, Iran is also vehemently opposed to it, so basically there would be a country surrounded by enemies.   I very much doubt that anybody has made any promise to the Kurds about independence.   To do so would be diplomatic suicide.  Oh, and the Kurds are not foolish enough to believe it for one second.   They are acutely aware of their position and the power of their neighbors.  

 

US policy does not support an independent Kurdistan.   I don't know about Israel, perhaps you could enlighten us?

 

[simple1]

49 minutes ago, Scott said:

It's not only the Arabs that are against an independent Kurdish homeland, Iran is also vehemently opposed to it, so basically there would be a country surrounded by enemies.   I very much doubt that anybody has made any promise to the Kurds about independence.   To do so would be diplomatic suicide.  Oh, and the Kurds are not foolish enough to believe it for one second.   They are acutely aware of their position and the power of their neighbors.  

 

US policy does not support an independent Kurdistan.   I don't know about Israel, perhaps you could enlighten us?

 

So what future do the Kurds of the various regions see for themselves, at best some form of autonomy?

[Scott]

Like most of the people in the ME, the Kurds are also very tribal in nature and their first loyalty is to their tribal grouping.   This is followed by their allegiance to various political parties and factions, such as the PUK, KDP and PKK, depending on the country.   A great deal of their unity is against the numerous enemies that they have in the region.  

 

To their overall credit, their leaders, at least the likes of the PUK and KDP are quite adept at dealing with foreign powers, such as the US and the UK.   Because of their alliances with western military powers, there is a stream of western mentality and idealism that runs through them.   This has been strengthened by their rejection of (or by) both the Arab and Persian cultures.  

 

As my staff in Iraq used to say, they would love to have their own country, but they would be landlocked and deprived of much of the oil.  

 

They are, overall, pragmatic and they are capable of protecting their homeland.  

[Cats4ever]

To rectify the mistake made at the end of WW1 when Britain & France carved up the middle east, after the dismemberment of the Ottoman empire, it is important that the Kurds get a home. I recommend the book, The Peace to End all Peace (forget author), for all the background. It is the Kurds who have been the most consistent opponents of DAESH all the way. Is it complicated, you bet. Should it be done, yes. Stuff the Sultan.

[BuaBS]

Someone should give the Kurds some nukes ( Pakistan , NK ?), to keep the turks out.

[Grouse]

59 minutes ago, Scott said:

Like most of the people in the ME, the Kurds are also very tribal in nature and their first loyalty is to their tribal grouping.   This is followed by their allegiance to various political parties and factions, such as the PUK, KDP and PKK, depending on the country.   A great deal of their unity is against the numerous enemies that they have in the region.  

 

To their overall credit, their leaders, at least the likes of the PUK and KDP are quite adept at dealing with foreign powers, such as the US and the UK.   Because of their alliances with western military powers, there is a stream of western mentality and idealism that runs through them.   This has been strengthened by their rejection of (or by) both the Arab and Persian cultures.  

 

As my staff in Iraq used to say, they would love to have their own country, but they would be landlocked and deprived of much of the oil.  

 

They are, overall, pragmatic and they are capable of protecting their homeland.  

A slice of Northern Iraq would provide oil

[Grouse]

56 minutes ago, Cats4ever said:

To rectify the mistake made at the end of WW1 when Britain & France carved up the middle east, after the dismemberment of the Ottoman empire, it is important that the Kurds get a home. I recommend the book, The Peace to End all Peace (forget author), for all the background. It is the Kurds who have been the most consistent opponents of DAESH all the way. Is it complicated, you bet. Should it be done, yes. Stuff the Sultan.

Thanks!

 

I've ordered it

 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peace-End-All-20th-Anniversary/dp/0805088091

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

A slice of Northern Iraq would provide oil

The Kurds have been selling their oil from from Kurdistan and Kirkuk independently of Iraq government.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/iraq-agrees-with-kurds-to-start-talks-on-kurdish-kirkuk-oil-isg804mw

Iraq wants exclusive export control over the oil but sees a price to be paid for it.

[tonbridgebrit]

Turkey, you are against the Kurdish rebels in Syria ?

Assad has been fighting against the Kurdish rebels since the beginning of Syria's civil war. Why didn't you back Assad at the very beginning of the Syrian civil war ?  Turkey, you're going to have to hope that Assad survives. If Assad does go, you've got a problem with armed Kurdish groups in northern Syria. But surely, you knew that at the beginning of the Syrian civil war ? 

Edited August 8, 2017 by tonbridgebrit

[Scott]

6 hours ago, Grouse said:

A slice of Northern Iraq would provide oil

After the Gulf War, the portion of N. Iraq that was Kurdish controlled territory, did not include Mosul or Kirkuk, which are where the oil fields are located.   These areas had been largely Arabized -- the process where Arab families were moved into the area and Kurds moved out.  

 

The remainder of N. Iraq probably has oil, and plenty of it, but it's not the easily extracted oil common in the rest of Iraq.   Being landlocked, they would have to have agreements with their neighbors to get the oil processed and sold.  

[Grouse]

23 minutes ago, Scott said:

After the Gulf War, the portion of N. Iraq that was Kurdish controlled territory, did not include Mosul or Kirkuk, which are where the oil fields are located.   These areas had been largely Arabized -- the process where Arab families were moved into the area and Kurds moved out.  

 

The remainder of N. Iraq probably has oil, and plenty of it, but it's not the easily extracted oil common in the rest of Iraq.   Being landlocked, they would have to have agreements with their neighbors to get the oil processed and sold.  

Erudite as always!

 

It seems to me that there are times when strategic changes can be made. This is one of them I feel. 

 

Sykes Picot was an error, we need an eraser and a big new pencil

[simple1]

8 hours ago, Grouse said:

Erudite as always!

 

It seems to me that there are times when strategic changes can be made. This is one of them I feel. 

 

Sykes Picot was an error, we need an eraser and a big new pencil

Which would very likely lead to yet more armed conflict. Can I recommend another backgrounder book to your reading list?

 

The Great War for Civilisation: The Conquest of the Middle East

[boomerangutang]

Erdogan has devolved to one of those despots who is always wrong.  Similar to Thaksin, Trump and Duterte.

 

Kurds should have their own homeland.  Unfortunately, the geopolitics shows that if they got that, they would have adversaries on all sides.