Thailand's export sector growing at fastest pace in 6 years

[webfact]

Export sector growing at fastest pace in 6 years

 

 

BANGKOK, 24 August 2017 (NNT) - Thailand's export sector in July expanded by 10.5 percent to 18.85 billion US dollars, reflecting global economic recovery. Exports in the first seven months of the year grew at the fastest pace in six years. 

The Ministry of Commerce reported good economic growth in all markets, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan. China recorded the most growth at 29.2 percent. Thai exports grew across the board, with rice products expanding by 98.8 percent due to the government's policy of decreasing its stockpile to less than one million tonnes. 

Exports in the first seven months of the year totaled 130 billion dollars, expanding the most in six years at 8.2 percent growth. The ministry expects 2017 exports to grow 5 - 6 percent, up from its original forecast of around 5 percent. 

July imports were valued at 19.04 billion dollars, marking an 18.5 percent increase. This resulted in a 188-million-dollar trade deficit, the first in over two years. However, the ministry said the deficit was due to short-term gold buying and that trade in the first seven months of the year is at a surplus of over six billion dollars.

 

-- nnt 2017-08-24

[billd766]

This cannot be true.

 

"Everybody" knows that this military government is incompetent and stupid, they couldn't even run a rice program properly.

 

I know this to be correct, as I read it on Thai Visa every time I log on.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

This cannot be true.

 

"Everybody" knows that this military government is incompetent and stupid, they couldn't even run a rice program properly.

 

I know this to be correct, as I read it on Thai Visa every time I log on.

The devil is in the detail. The exports are up in percentage terms from last year, but is still lower in Baht terms than before the coup. But to be correct the government have little to do with exports, as at present the USD exchange rate is very low in Baht terms and should be negative for exports. A government cant increase exports directly, but can influence exchange rates. Thus even though they are mismangaging the export economy by allowing a strong Baht, the exports increased. The question should be in this trend will continue or not. The article also did not give figures for specific items and one can thus not see if there was once off items in the exports which led to the increase. The bottomline however is still a trade deficit. These deficit could become the norm as the High speed train projects come online as these projects will need imported components which could costs many billions. These big imports can lead to more deficits and in the end to the depreciation of the Baht. I can go on and on but to sing the praises of the junta because exports increased for a short period after 3 years in power is a stretch.

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Export sector growing at fastest pace in 6 years

But when including imports,

5 hours ago, webfact said:

a 188-million-dollar trade deficit, the first in over two years.

If BOT can lower interest rates a little, that deficit can be reversed.

[gummy]

There's lies and there's damned lies

[Thechook]

With the baht so high, wouldn't the cost of Thai products be more expensive.  Why would exports be growing faster?  

[Ricardo]

3 hours ago, Srikcir said:

But when including imports,

If BOT can lower interest rates a little, that deficit can be reversed.

But still overall a healthy trade-surplus year-to-date  ...

 

"This resulted in a 188-million-dollar trade deficit, the first in over two years. However, the ministry said the deficit was due to short-term gold buying and that trade in the first seven months of the year is at a surplus of over six billion dollars."

 

I agree that it would be good to see the BoT reduce interest-rates, and thus reduce capital-inflows, then again that might encourage a further rise in domestic-debt, which is high ?  Not an easy balance to maintain.

[robblok]

9 minutes ago, Ricardo said:

But still overall a healthy trade-surplus year-to-date  ...

 

"This resulted in a 188-million-dollar trade deficit, the first in over two years. However, the ministry said the deficit was due to short-term gold buying and that trade in the first seven months of the year is at a surplus of over six billion dollars."

 

I agree that it would be good to see the BoT reduce interest-rates, and thus reduce capital-inflows, then again that might encourage a further rise in domestic-debt, which is high ?  Not an easy balance to maintain.

Most expats want to see the BOT reduce the interest rates... because it would mean that it would drop against other currencies. I don't see it happening though. 

[Ricardo]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

Most expats want to see the BOT reduce the interest rates... because it would mean that it would drop against other currencies. I don't see it happening though. 

 

Agreed, but one can't be selfish, the BoT doesn't make these decisions with the expat-community in mind.

 

Thailand is running a long-term trade-surplus, one months' deficit due to "short-term gold buying" is probably just a blip, however much we might wish otherwise.

 

And I've seen too many calls for a weaker Baht, over the past decade, to think it's easily achieved ?

[robblok]

Just now, Ricardo said:

 

Agreed, but one can't be selfish, the BoT doesn't make these decisions with the expat-community in mind.

 

Thailand is running a long-term trade-surplus, one months' deficit due to "short-term gold buying" is probably just a blip, however much we might wish otherwise.

 

And I've seen too many calls for a weaker Baht, over the past decade, to think it's easily achieved ?

Yes I agree 100% with you...  your remark about debts going up if the interest rate comes down is right too. People will loan more then.. and if the rate ever goes up... 

 

Thailand has already high debts. Anyway as long as they have a long term trade surplus there is no need for a lower Baht.

[billd766]

4 hours ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

The devil is in the detail. The exports are up in percentage terms from last year, but is still lower in Baht terms than before the coup. But to be correct the government have little to do with exports, as at present the USD exchange rate is very low in Baht terms and should be negative for exports. A government cant increase exports directly, but can influence exchange rates. Thus even though they are mismangaging the export economy by allowing a strong Baht, the exports increased. The question should be in this trend will continue or not. The article also did not give figures for specific items and one can thus not see if there was once off items in the exports which led to the increase. The bottomline however is still a trade deficit. These deficit could become the norm as the High speed train projects come online as these projects will need imported components which could costs many billions. These big imports can lead to more deficits and in the end to the depreciation of the Baht. I can go on and on but to sing the praises of the junta because exports increased for a short period after 3 years in power is a stretch.

 

You may have missed the tongue in my cheek with my comment.

[wakeupplease]

2 hours ago, Thechook said:

With the baht so high, wouldn't the cost of Thai products be more expensive.  Why would exports be growing faster?  

Yes you are correct, but looks like they have employed the TAT financial brain to do the figures

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

Most expats want to see the BOT reduce the interest rates... because it would mean that it would drop against other currencies. I don't see it happening though. 

Agreed not happening. The counter effect to a high currency value would be rising wages to keep pace with a more expensive national currency for purchasing imports. But that's not happening because of the wide income inequality (the so-called "middle income trap") present in Thailand. So left with rising inflation and household debt, the average Thai loses.

[billd766]

In the other paper today the World Bank revises the growth in Thailand upwards.